Oil prices to remain high for days with Strait of Hormuz in spotlight, analysts say

March 2 (Reuters) - Analysts expect oil prices to remain elevated over the coming days while markets focus on the impact of escalating Middle East conflict on supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for more than 20% of global oil.

• Citi sees Brent crude trading between $80 and $90 a barrel over the coming week at least, they said in a note
• Prices are expected to pull back to $70 a barrel on de-escalation, Citi said.
• Goldman Sachs estimates an $18 per barrel real-time risk premium in crude prices, the bank said in a note on Sunday. It expects this to moderate to a $4 premium if only 50% of flows through the Strait of Hormuz are halted for a month.
• In a scenario where flows halt for one month, it is likely that the TTF and JKM benchmark gas prices could climb by 130% to approach 74 euros per megawatt hour ($25/mmBtu), Goldman said.
• Wood Mackenzie said that oil prices could exceed $100 a barrel if tanker flows through the strait are not restored quickly.
• "The disruption creates a dual supply shock: not only are current exports through the Strait halted, but OPEC+ additional volumes and ultimately most of OPEC’s spare capacity - typically a key lever for balancing the global oil market - are inaccessible while the waterway remains closed," WoodMac analysts said in a note.
• OPEC+ has agreed to raise output by 206,000 barrels per day (bpd) for April.
• Societe Generale analysts said on Monday that the most likely scenario for oil prices is a short-lived spike followed by a partial retracement as markets judge supply continuity to be credible
• Bernstein raised its 2026 Brent oil price assumption from $65 to $80 a barrel, but sees prices reaching $120-$150 in an extreme case of prolonged conflict.
• JPMorgan says crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz have slumped to about 4 million bpd from the usual 16 million, with flows limited to Iranian barrels as tanker traffic dries up
• Gulf producers have storage and tanker capacity to cover 25 days of stranded supply, JPMorgan estimates.
• The bank said that a 3–4 week restriction through the Strait of Hormuz could force Gulf Cooperation Council output shut‑ins and lift Brent crude above $100 a barrel.