US natgas futures rise 2% on higher global energy prices, near-record LNG exports

ReutersFeb 27, 2026 2:57 PM

Gas futures rise despite warmer weather forecasts
Texas Waha Hub prices negative for 16th consecutive day
LNG export flows near record levels in February

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, Feb 27 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose about 2% on Friday on near-record liquefied natural gas export flows and higher global energy prices amid concerns over potential supply disruptions after the United States and Iran extended nuclear talks into next week.

The increase in gas futures came despite forecasts for warmer weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

Front-month gas futures for April delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 4.9 cents, or 1.7%, to $2.876 per million British thermal units. On Thursday, the contract closed at its lowest since September 22.

For the week, the front-month was down about 6%, putting it down for a fifth week in a row for the first time since August 2025. During the past five weeks, the contract was down by around 45%.

For the month, the front-month was down about 34% in February after rising about 18% in January.

In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in West Texas remained in negative territory for a record 16th day in a row, as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin.

Daily Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, a record 49 times in 2024, 39 times in 2025, and 25 times so far this year.

Waha prices have averaged 40 cents per mmBtu so far in 2026, compared with $1.15 in 2025 and $2.88 over the past five years (2021-2025).

In Northern California, next-day gas at the PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL fell to a record low of $1.37 per mmBtu. That compares with the prior all-time low of $1.43 in November 2001 and averages of $2.30 so far in 2026, $3.42 in 2025, and $5.47 over the past five years (2021-2025).

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Average gas output in the Lower 48 states climbed to 108.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February, up from 106.3 bcfd in January, according to data from financial firm LSEG. That compares with a monthly record high of 109.7 bcfd in December.

Energy analysts projected a winter storm earlier this week likely caused energy firms to pull more gas out of storage than usual for this time of year, knocking stockpiles down from near-normal levels during the week ended February 20 to about 2% below normal for the week ended February 27. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

But with meteorologists predicting weather across the country will remain mostly warmer than normal through March 14, analysts expect stockpiles to return to near-normal levels in early March.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would drop from 137.6 bcfd this week to 125.3 bcfd next week and 112.9 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next were lower than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.

Average gas flows to the nine large U.S. LNG export plants rose to 18.7 bcfd so far in February, up from 17.8 bcfd in January and on track to beat December's monthly record of 18.5 bcfd.

	Week ended Feb 27 Forecast	Week ended Feb 20 Actual	Year ago Feb 27	Five-year average (2021-2025) Feb 27
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	-125	-52	-106	-96
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	1,893	2,018	1,771	1,929
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	-1.9%	-0.3%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1	2.87	2.83	3.74	3.62	3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	11.21	11.04	15.28	11.94	18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	10.61	10.60	14.41	12.24	18.12


LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)	234	245	302	348	333
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)	29	23	5	10	8
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)	263	268	307	358	341

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	110.3	108.8	108.6	104.2	97.8
U.S. Imports from Canada	9.1	9.5	9.0	N/A	9.0
U.S. LNG Imports	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1
Total U.S. Supply	119.4	118.3	117.6	N/A	106.9

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	4.0	4.0	4.0	N/A	3.5
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.6	6.5	6.5	N/A	5.4
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	18.8	18.7	18.7	15.9	12.6
U.S. Commercial	13.3	16.0	12.9	13.1	14.6
U.S. Residential	21.4	26.2	19.5	20.5	24.0
U.S. Power Plant	29.8	32.6	31.4	31.9	31.8
U.S. Industrial	24.0	25.3	24.2	24.4	25.2
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.4	5.4	5.4	5.4	5.4
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.6	2.9	2.6	2.6	4.0
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	96.6	108.5	96.1	98.0	105.2
Total U.S. Demand	126.0	137.6	125.3	N/A	126.7

N/A = Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	92	91	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	92	91	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	97	96	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Feb 27	Week ended Feb 20	2025	2024	2023
Wind	13	14	11	11	10
Solar	6	5	6	5	4
Hydro	7	7	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	1	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	37	36	40	42	41
Coal	17	16	18	16	17
Nuclear	19	20	18	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	2.94	3.02	4.19	3.52	3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	2.55	3.06	4.90	3.53	3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	1.37	1.64	3.78	3.42	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	2.35	2.53	4.03	2.79	2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	2.62	2.69	4.19	3.23	3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	4.04	6.20	13.65	6.08	5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	2.10	2.25	4.19	3.60	5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	-1.66	-1.78	2.76	1.15	2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.01	1.09	1.53	1.13	2.13

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	53.15	62.39	134.58	77.61	61.79
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	37.64	48.01	53.89	60.23	54.47
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	16.66	9.62	67.87	44.81	68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	10.96	9.95	29.05	34.82	59.94
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	12.12	9.65	25.19	28.44	53.02

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