US natgas futures dip 2% to four-month low on mild forecasts, despite Northeast blizzard

ReutersFeb 23, 2026 8:00 PM

US natgas futures fall 2% despite winter storm
Waha Hub prices negative for record 12th day
LNG export flows near monthly record

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, Feb 23 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 2% to a four-month low on Monday on a milder weather forecast over the next two weeks, even as a massive blizzard buried the U.S. Northeast in snow.

Gas futures for March delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 6.2 cents to settle at $2.985 per million British thermal units, the lowest close since October 16.

Prices had rallied earlier in the session due to forecasts for more demand in coming weeks and as flows to liquefied natural gas plants track a new monthly record.

In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in West Texas remained in negative territory for a record consecutive 12th day, as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin.

Daily Waha prices first closed below zero in 2019, but what was once an oddity is now commonplace, with a record 49 closes in negative territory in 2024. Waha prices have closed in negative territory 21 times so far this year.

Waha prices have averaged 76 cents per mmBtu so far this year, compared with $1.15 in 2025 and a five-year average (2021-2025) of $2.88.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Average gas output in the Lower 48 states climbed to 108.7 billion cubic feet per day so far in February, up from 106.3 bcfd in January, according to LSEG data. That compares with a monthly record high of 109.7 bcfd in December.

Despite the winter storm currently battering the U.S. Northeast, meteorologists predicted weather across much of the country would remain mostly near normal through at least March 10.

LSEG projects average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, to slide from 137.5 bcfd this week to 130.3 bcfd next week; those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday.

There was about 6% less gas in storage than usual during the week ended February 13. That deficit was expected to fall to just 1% less than normal during the week ended February 20 after mild weather and low heating demand allowed utilities to leave more gas in storage than usual for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Average gas flows to the nine large U.S. liquefied natural gas export plants have risen to 18.6 bcfd so far in February, up from 17.8 bcfd in January and on track to beat December's monthly record of 18.5 bcfd.

Gas was trading near $11 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU

	Week ended Feb 20 Forecast	Week ended Feb 13 Actual	Year ago Feb 20	Five-year average (2021-2025) Feb 20
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	-70	-144	-252	-168
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	2,000	2,070	1,877	2,025
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	-1.2%	-5.6%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1	3.13	3.05	3.74	3.62	3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	11.03	11.50	15.28	11.94	18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	10.66	10.78	14.41	12.24	18.12


LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)	320	351	302	348	346
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)	19	12	5	10	7
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)	349	363	307	358	353

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	110.3	109.0	109.3	104.2	97.8
U.S. Imports from Canada	9.1	9.2	9.3	N/A	9.0
U.S. LNG Imports	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1
Total U.S. Supply	119.4	118.2	118.6	N/A	106.9

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	4.0	4.1	4.0	N/A	3.5
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.6	6.4	6.4	N/A	5.4
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	18.8	18.8	18.5	15.9	12.6
U.S. Commercial	13.3	16.5	14.8	13.1	14.6
U.S. Residential	21.4	27.0	23.2	20.5	24.0
U.S. Power Plant	29.8	30.9	30.2	31.9	31.8
U.S. Industrial	24.0	25.4	25.0	24.4	25.2
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.4	5.4	5.4	5.4	5.4
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.6	2.9	2.7	2.6	4.0
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	96.6	108.2	101.3	98.0	105.2
Total U.S. Demand	126.0	137.5	130.3	N/A	126.7

N/A = Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	93	95	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	92	95	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	96	99	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Feb 27	Week ended Feb 20	2025	2024	2023
Wind	10	14	11	11	10
Solar	7	5	6	5	4
Hydro	7	7	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	1	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	38	36	40	42	41
Coal	16	16	18	16	17
Nuclear	20	20	18	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	3.15	3.09	4.19	3.52	3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	3.53	2.75	4.90	3.53	3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	1.91	2.06	3.78	3.42	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	2.62	2.53	4.03	2.79	2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	2.88	2.80	4.19	3.23	3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	7.50	6.30	13.65	6.08	5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	2.68	2.65	4.19	3.60	5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	-4.56	-2.16	2.76	1.15	2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.28	1.44	1.53	1.13	2.13

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	93.18	80.05	134.58	77.61	61.79
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	68.42	41.32	53.89	60.23	54.47
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	21.30	28.49	67.87	44.81	68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	17.43	18.42	29.05	34.82	59.94
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	20.06	20.99	25.19	28.44	53.02

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