FACTBOX-Goldman Sachs raises 26Q4 Brent, WTI oil price outlook

Feb 23 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs GS.N raised its Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2026 by $6 each to $60 and $56 respectively, on lower-than-expected OECD stocks, even as it maintained its view of a 2026 surplus.

The bank now assumes 2026 global inventory builds in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries' commercial stocks will only come to 19%, versus 27% previously, and it therefore expects a subset of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC8+, to begin gradually increasing production in the second quarter of 2026.

In a note dated Sunday, Goldman noted that it was maintaining its 2026 surplus forecast of 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd), assuming no major supply disruption and no Russia-Ukraine peace. The bank sees Brent and WTI averaging $65/bbl and $61/bbl respectively in 2027.

Separately, in a note dated Saturday, Barclays said "oil market fundamentals are completely at odds with the super glut narrative."

Barclays said regarding oil prices that despite the 15% move higher year to date, geopolitical tensions still pose asymmetric upside risks.

Both Brent and WTI futures prices fell more than 1% on Monday as the U.S. and Iran prepared for a third round of nuclear talks, easing fears of an escalating conflict. O/R

"A potential 1 mb/d supply disruption--which corresponds to half of Iran's crude exports--for 12 months would boost the fair value of oil by $8," Barclays said.

Goldman, though, expects downside risks of $5 for Brent and $8 for WTI for the fourth quarter of 2026 if potential sanctions relief for Iran or Russia accelerates landed stock builds and unlocks higher supply in the longer term.

indicates end-of-period forecasts

# current as of given date, may not indicate date of revision

For a table of crude price forecasts as per Reuters' latest monthly poll, see OILPOLL