Goldman says US strategic stockpiling poses upside risk to copper price forecast

Feb 18 (Reuters) - Analysts at Goldman Sachs expect upside risk to their 2026 fourth quarter copper price forecast of $11,200 per metric ton if proposed strategic stockpiling by the U.S., and potentially China, leads to a reduction in metal inventories.

The bank said U.S. stockpiling, if carried out as proposed, "would absorb most of our estimated 300,000 ton 2026 global surplus, moving the (copper) market from oversupplied to balanced."

• U.S. President Donald Trump earlier this month announced the creation of a critical mineral reserve, to be known as Project Vault, intended to help the U.S. auto industry, with a goal to maintain a 60-day supply of minerals for emergency use.

• Goldman estimates a 19% upside risk to their 26Q4 copper price forecast in a global stockpiling scenario "in which both the U.S. and China target additional 60 days of cover" implying roughly 1 million metric tons of additional stockpiling.

• However, given copper is a high-volume market, the analysts noted, that stockpiling is less likely to be material relative to market size.

• Assuming the U.S. uniformly stockpiles 60 days of critical metals, Goldman estimates that roughly half of total Project Vault capital could be required to build copper and aluminium stockpiles alone.

• The bank also said that while the U.S. can cover all 60 critical minerals, stockpiling is likely to focus on smaller, critical markets where U.S. import dependence is highest, such as heavy rare earths, rather than pro-rata across commodities.