US natural gas futures drop 7% to 4-month low amid near-record output, mild weather

ReutersFeb 17, 2026 7:44 PM

Waha Hub prices remain negative due to pipeline constraints
LSEG reports record high daily gas output in Lower 48 states
Mild weather forecast to keep heating demand low through early March

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, Feb 17 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures dropped about 7% to a four-month low on Tuesday on near-record daily output and forecasts for the weather to remain milder than normal through early March.

Mild weather should keep heating demand low and allow utilities to leave more gas in storage than usual for this time of year.

Gas futures for March delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 21.2 cents, or 6.5%, to settle at $3.031 per million British thermal units, their lowest close since October 17.

In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in the Permian Basin in West Texas remained in negative territory for an eighth day in a row and the 17th time so far this year, as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin.

Daily Waha prices closed below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, a record 49 times in 2024, and 39 times in 2025.

Waha prices have averaged $1.25 per mmBtu so far this year, compared with $1.15 in 2025 and a five-year average (2021-2025) of $2.88.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states climbed to 108.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February, up from 106.3 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 109.7 bcfd in December.

On a daily basis, however, output was on track to ease to 109.9 bcfd on Tuesday after reaching 111.0 bcfd on Saturday, which was the most since hitting a daily record high of 111.2 bcfd on December 21.

Meteorologists projected weather across much of the country would remain mostly warmer than normal through at least March 4.

There is currently about 6% less gas in storage than usual for this time of year. Analysts, however, expect that deficit to be mostly wiped out by early March. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Despite the mild weather expected, the forecasts still call for colder weather and higher demand next week than this week, which also contained the low demand U.S. Presidents' Day holiday on Monday.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 125.3 bcfd this week to 134.6 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday before the long Presidents' Day weekend.

Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants rose to 18.6 bcfd so far in February, up from 17.8 bcfd in January and on track to beat the monthly record high of 18.5 bcfd in December.

	Week ended Feb 13 Forecast	Week ended Feb 6 Actual	Year ago Feb 13	Five-year average (2021-2025) Feb 13
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	-159	-249	-182	-151
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	2,055	2,214	2,129	2,193
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	-6.3%	-5.5%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1	3.13	3.24	3.74	3.62	3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	10.55	10.71	15.28	11.94	18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	10.52	10.99	14.41	12.24	18.12


LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)	334	320	407	376	367
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)	7	6	3	8	6
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)	341	326	410	384	373

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	108.2	110.5	110.4	101.8	97.8
U.S. Imports from Canada	10.0	9.2	9.2	N/A	9.0
U.S. LNG Imports	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.3	0.1
Total U.S. Supply	118.3	119.7	119.7	N/A	106.9

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	3.8	4.0	4.0	N/A	3.5
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.6	6.6	6.5	N/A	5.4
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	18.6	18.8	18.4	15.8	12.6
U.S. Commercial	17.4	13.1	15.9	21.0	14.6
U.S. Residential	28.6	21.1	26.3	37.9	24.0
U.S. Power Plant	33.0	29.7	30.0	24.6	31.8
U.S. Industrial	25.5	24.0	25.2	27.0	25.2
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.3	5.5	5.5	5.3	5.4
U.S. Pipe Distribution	3.0	2.6	2.8	3.0	4.0
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	113.0	95.9	105.8	118.9	105.2
Total U.S. Demand	142.0	125.3	134.6	N/A	126.7

N/A = Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	94	93	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	93	92	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	98	97	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Feb 20	Week ended Feb 13	2025	2024	2023
Wind	12	11	11	11	10
Solar	5	6	6	5	4
Hydro	6	6	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	1	2
Petroleum	0	1	0	0	0
Natural Gas	37	37	40	42	41
Coal	17	19	18	16	17
Nuclear	20	19	18	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	3.24	3.43	4.19	3.52	3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	3.71	3.54	4.90	3.53	3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	1.99	2.16	3.78	3.42	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	2.53	2.80	4.03	2.79	2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	2.78	3.03	4.19	3.23	3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	8.56	10.04	13.65	6.08	5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	2.71	2.91	4.19	3.60	5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	-1.05	-0.88	2.76	1.15	2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.15	1.21	1.53	1.13	2.13

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	80.00	90.98	134.58	77.61	61.79
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	45.02	58.83	53.89	60.23	54.47
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	32.08	28.72	67.87	44.81	68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	29.30	25.64	29.05	34.82	59.94
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	33.80	24.66	25.19	28.44	53.02

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