US natural gas futures dip 3% on warm weather outlook

ReutersFeb 13, 2026 2:19 PM

U.S. natural gas futures fall 3% due to warm weather forecasts
Waha Hub prices remain negative due to pipeline constraints
LSEG reports increased gas output and fluctuating demand forecasts

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, Feb 13 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 3% on Friday before the long U.S. Presidents' Day weekend on forecasts for the weather to remain warmer than normal through the end of February, which should keep heating demand low and allow energy firms to pull less gas from storage than usual over the next couple of weeks.

Gas futures for March delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 8.1 cents, or 2.5%, to $3.136 per million British thermal units.

That put the contract down about 8% for the week after it lost about 21% last week and 17% two weeks ago.

In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in the Permian Basin in West Texas remained in negative territory for a seventh day in a row and the 16th time this year, as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin.

Daily Waha prices first fell below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, a record 49 times in 2024, and 39 times in 2025.

Waha prices have averaged $1.33 per mmBtu so far this year, compared with $1.15 in 2025 and a five-year average (2021-2025) of $2.88.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states climbed to 107.8 billion cubic feet per day so far in February, up from 106.3 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 109.7 bcfd in December.

After extreme cold over the past couple of weeks, meteorologists projected weather across much of the country would remain mostly warmer than normal through at least February 28.

If those forecasts are correct, analysts expect heating demand will remain lower than normal through the end of February, which should allow energy firms to leave more gas in storage than usual, wiping out the current inventory deficit by early March. There is currently about 6% less gas in stockpiles than usual for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 141.7 bcfd this week to 123.9 bcfd next week before rising to 131.9 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.

Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants rose to 18.5 bcfd so far in February, up from 17.8 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 18.5 bcfd in December.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG exporter in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more low-cost U.S. gas, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Gas was trading at around $11 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU

	Week ended Feb 13 Forecast	Week ended Feb 6 Actual	Year ago Feb 13	Five-year average (2021-2025) Feb 13
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	-159	-249	-182	-151
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	2,055	2,214	2,129	2,193
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	-6.3%	-5.5%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1	3.16	3.22	3.74	3.62	3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	11.30	11.25	15.28	11.94	18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	11.01	11.01	14.41	12.24	18.12


LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)	320	319	489	398	382
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)	6	6	7	7	5
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)	326	325	496	405	387

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	107.1	108.2	108.6	105.6	97.8
U.S. Imports from Canada	10.9	10.0	9.1	N/A	9.0
U.S. LNG Imports	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1
Total U.S. Supply	118.1	118.3	117.8	N/A	106.9

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	3.0	3.8	3.9	N/A	3.5
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.3	6.4	6.7	N/A	5.4
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	18.6	18.6	18.3	15.5	12.6
U.S. Commercial	20.9	17.4	13.0	18.2	14.6
U.S. Residential	35.7	28.5	20.9	30.8	24.0
U.S. Power Plant	39.6	33.0	29.1	24.6	31.8
U.S. Industrial	26.8	25.5	24.0	26.1	25.2
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.3	5.3	5.4	5.3	5.4
U.S. Pipe Distribution	3.5	3.0	2.5	3.5	4.0
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	131.9	112.9	95.1	108.6	105.2
Total U.S. Demand	159.8	141.7	123.9	N/A	126.7

N/A = Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	93	93	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	92	92	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	97	97	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Feb 13	Week ended Feb 6	2025	2024	2023
Wind	11	9	11	11	10
Solar	5	4	6	5	4
Hydro	6	5	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	1	2
Petroleum	1	1	0	0	0
Natural Gas	37	40	40	42	41
Coal	19	21	18	16	17
Nuclear	19	18	18	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	3.43	3.25	4.19	3.52	3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	3.54	4.24	4.90	3.53	3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	2.16	2.31	3.78	3.42	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	2.80	2.93	4.03	2.79	2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	3.03	3.02	4.19	3.23	3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	10.04	12.19	13.65	6.08	5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	2.91	3.01	4.19	3.60	5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	-0.73	-0.88	2.76	1.15	2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.21	1.21	1.53	1.13	2.13

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	90.98	94.83	134.58	77.61	61.79
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	58.83	60.56	53.89	60.23	54.47
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	28.72	28.72	67.87	44.81	68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	25.64	25.64	29.05	34.82	59.94
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	24.66	24.66	25.19	28.44	53.02

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