Air Canada expects 2026 core profit slightly above estimates on international demand

By Shivansh Tiwary and Abhinav Parmar

Feb 12 (Reuters) - Air Canada AC.TO forecast 2026 core profit marginally above Wall Street estimates on Thursday, betting on strong demand on international routes outside the U.S. and a surge in premium travel.

Even as domestic demand shows signs of cooling, international travel has remained a relative bright spot, cushioning carriers with broad overseas networks.

Strong long-haul bookings and resilient premium-cabin demand have helped the Canadian carrier offset softness in U.S.–Canada routes.

The Canadian flag carrier expects annual adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization in the range of C$3.35 billion ($2.46 billion) to C$3.75 billion, compared with analysts' average expectations of C$3.5 billion.

The airline expects its available seat miles capacity, a key measure of passenger-carrying capacity, to rise between 3.5% and 5.5% in 2026.

The company said it navigated demand shifts, a summer labor disruption and broader macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties to deliver results, and noted strong 2026 booking momentum alongside opportunities from upcoming fleet investments.

"Inflation from its various labor agreements as well as delayed aircraft deliveries will pressure CASMex (cost per available seat mile excluding fuel) in 2026," analysts at TD Cowen wrote in a note.

Last month, Air Canada unveiled plans to expand its winter schedule to Europe and Latin America as demand remains firm in those regions, even as parts of the North American market lose momentum.

Earlier this week, it also ordered eight Airbus A350-1000 widebody jets, with options for eight more, as part of its fleet renewal plan, aiming to enhance its long-haul offering and improve fuel efficiency.

The Canadian carrier reported a net income of C$296 million, or C$1 per share, for the fourth quarter, compared with a loss of C$644 million, or C$1.81 per share, a year earlier.

Air Canada reported total operating revenue of C$5.77 billion, compared with C$5.40 billion a year earlier.

($1 = 1.3616 Canadian dollars)