US forecaster sees signs of La Nina shift towards El Nino conditions in early 2026

Feb 12 (Reuters) - There is a 60% chance of a shift in the climate phenomenon known as La Niña towards El Nino in February-April 2026, with this pattern, known as ENSO-neutral, likely to persist through the Northern Hemisphere summer, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center said on Thursday.

"Atmospheric anomalies weakened due to subseasonal variability, but still reflected aspects of La Niña," the U.S. weather forecaster said. "Low-level westerly wind anomalies were present over the western equatorial Pacific, and upper-level westerly wind anomalies continued across the east-central equatorial Pacific."

WHY IT'S IMPORTANT
La Niña is part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation climatic cycle, which affects water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
La Niña results in cooler water temperatures, increasing the chance of floods and drought, which can impact crops. When ENSO is neutral, water temperatures stay around the average level, leading to more stable weather and potentially better crop yields.

KEY QUOTES

"There are signs that La Nina is weakening, and neutral ENSO conditions should return in the next couple of months," said Jason Nicholls, lead international forecaster at AccuWeather, adding that a transition to El Nino conditions could begin in late spring.

"Drought conditions have started to appear in parts of southeast Australia and a transition to El Nino could lead to worsening drought conditions and issues for the next growing season," Nicholls added.

"With the transition out of La Nina, this should equate to more rain in Argentina, and less rain in north-central Brazil. Also, less rain is likely in Southeast Asia as we go into summer if La Nina fades," said Donald Keeney, agricultural meteorologist at Vaisala Weather.

CONTEXT

Record heat and wildfires swept through the Southern Hemisphere at the start of 2026, with scientists predicting that even more extreme temperatures could lie ahead.

Climate change combined with cyclical La Niña weather patterns led to catastrophic flooding across southern Africa in late December and early January, killing around 200 people and affecting hundreds of thousands of others.

There is a 60% chance of the El Nino phenomenon occurring in the summer, Japan's weather bureau said on Tuesday, with a 50% likelihood of it occurring in the spring and a 50% chance of normal conditions continuing.