US natgas futures surge 3% on near-record LNG export flows, ahead of storage report

ReutersFeb 12, 2026 2:42 PM

Near-record LNG export flows boost U.S. natural gas futures
Analysts forecast significant gas storage withdrawals amid recent Arctic blast
Waha Hub prices remain negative due to pipeline constraints

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, Feb 12 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% on Thursday on near-record flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and ahead of a federal storage report expected to show energy firms pulled much more gas out of storage last week to meet surging heating demand during an Arctic blast for a second week in a row.

Gas futures for March delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 9.5 cents, or 3.3%, to $3.254 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).

After pulling a record 360 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended January 30, analysts forecast energy firms pulled a still massive 257 bcf of gas from storage during the week ended February 6.

That compares with a decline of 111 bcf during the same week last year and an average withdrawal of 146 bcf over the past five years (2021-2025). EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

In the cash market, meanwhile, average prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in the Permian Basin in West Texas remained in negative territory for a sixth day in a row and the 15th time this year, as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin.

Daily Waha prices first fell below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, a record 49 times in 2024, and 39 times in 2025.

Waha prices have averaged $1.40 per mmBtu so far this year, compared with $1.15 in 2025 and a five-year average (2021-2025) of $2.88.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states climbed to 107.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February, up from 106.3 bcfd in January. That figure compares with a monthly record high of 109.7 bcfd in December.

After extreme cold over the past couple of weeks, meteorologists projected weather across much of the country would remain mostly warmer than normal through at least February 27.

With last week's storage withdrawal, stockpiles will likely drop from around 1% below normal levels for this time of year during the week ended January 30 to around 6% below normal during the week ended February 6. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Energy analysts, however, noted mild weather expected over the next few weeks could wipe out much of that storage deficit by early March.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 141.3 bcfd this week to 124.0 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.

Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants have risen to 18.5 bcfd so far in February, up from 17.8 bcfd in January. That reading compares with a monthly record high of 18.5 bcfd in December.

	Week ended Feb 6 Forecast	Week ended Jan 30 Actual	Year ago Feb 6	Five-year average (2021-2025) Feb 6
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	-257	-360	-111	-146
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	2,206	2,463	2,311	2,344
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	-5.9%	-1.1%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1	3.24	3.16	3.74	3.62	3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	11.39	11.38	15.28	11.94	18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	11.01	11.02	14.41	12.24	18.12


LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)	319	314	489	398	386
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)	6	5	7	7	5
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)	325	319	496	405	391

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	107.1	108.1	108.3	105.6	97.8
U.S. Imports from Canada	10.9	9.8	9.1	N/A	9.0
U.S. LNG Imports	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1
Total U.S. Supply	118.1	118.0	117.4	N/A	106.9

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	3.0	3.8	3.8	N/A	3.5
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.3	6.6	6.4	N/A	5.4
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	18.6	18.7	18.5	15.5	12.6
U.S. Commercial	20.9	17.3	13.1	18.2	14.6
U.S. Residential	35.7	28.4	21.1	30.8	24.0
U.S. Power Plant	39.6	32.6	29.1	24.6	31.8
U.S. Industrial	26.8	25.5	24.0	26.1	25.2
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.4
U.S. Pipe Distribution	3.5	3.0	2.5	3.5	4.0
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	131.9	112.2	95.3	108.6	105.2
Total U.S. Demand	159.8	141.3	124.0	N/A	126.7

N/A = Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	94	93	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	93	92	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	98	97	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Feb 13	Week ended Feb 6	2025	2024	2023
Wind	13	9	11	11	10
Solar	5	4	6	5	4
Hydro	6	5	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	1	2
Petroleum	1	1	0	0	0
Natural Gas	36	40	40	42	41
Coal	19	21	18	16	17
Nuclear	19	18	18	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	3.25	3.18	4.19	3.52	3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	4.24	3.67	4.90	3.53	3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	2.31	2.39	3.78	3.42	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	2.93	2.91	4.03	2.79	2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	3.02	3.02	4.19	3.23	3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	12.19	12.10	13.65	6.08	5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	3.01	3.01	4.19	3.60	5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	-0.88	-0.66	2.76	1.15	2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.21	1.21	1.53	1.13	2.13

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	94.83	102.74	134.58	77.61	61.79
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	60.56	48.26	53.89	60.23	54.47
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	28.72	30.79	67.87	44.81	68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	25.64	32.00	29.05	34.82	59.94
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	24.66	33.35	25.19	28.44	53.02

Disclaimer: The information provided on this website is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice.