US set to narrow its rare earth gap, others not so much

By Alessandro Parodi and Lewis Jackson

PARIS/BEIJING, Nov 25 (Reuters) - A multi-billion dollar pipeline of rare earth projects around the world is set to partly wean the U.S. off Chinese rare earths, but falls far short of breaking Beijing's grip over the sector for most other countries.

China would still supply roughly 60% of the world's key magnet-making rare earths by 2030, according to Reuters' analysis of International Energy Agency data. By comparison, the U.S. is on course to meet about 95% of its own demand from domestic sources.

However, these projections assume that today's pipeline is built and scaled on schedule. Experts point to the years needed to build new mines and refineries, the difficulty and expense of finding equipment outside China and the shortage of skilled workers.

The IEA estimates are also narrowly focused on just four of the 17 rare earth elements. But China is set to continue dominating processing of heavy rare earths, a niche but vital sub-group of the elements, and the West as a whole will still rely on China for 91% of its needs in 2030.

"By 2030, we will still be in trouble," said Neha Mukherjee, research manager at Benchmark Minerals. "It's just that, if all these projects in the pipeline are able to come online, we will be in less trouble than we are right now."

Most countries will still rely on China for their rare earths