USDA projects record US corn crop, biggest harvested acres since 1933

By Karl Plume

CHICAGO, Sept 12 (Reuters) - U.S. farmers will harvest the most acres of corn since 1933 and produce more of the grain than previously expected, even though crop yields will miss earlier forecasts, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Friday.

The agency further increased its estimate for how many acres will be harvested in a monthly supply and demand report, after surprising grain traders with a large acreage increase in August.

The production increase kept a lid on benchmark corn prices on the Chicago Board of Trade Cv1.

"It didn't matter that USDA reduced the corn yield, because of the amount of corn acreage they found," said Susan Stroud, founder and analyst at No Bull Agriculture.

Grain supplies were set to swell due to the large harvest, benefiting livestock producers that use the crop for feed and ethanol manufacturers.

But grain farmers have struggled with low crop prices and rising costs for inputs such as fertilizer and seeds. Cash receipts for U.S. crops have been forecast to fall for a third straight year to the lowest level since 2007, when adjusted for inflation.

The USDA raised its 2025 U.S. corn production estimate to a record 16.814 billion bushels. It projected a record average yield of 186.7 bushels per acre, down from 188.8 bushels per acre in August. Both figures were above analysts' expectations.

Favorable crop weather for much of the summer growing season boosted yield prospects until pockets of disease and dry late-season weather clipped potential, analysts said.

End-of-season U.S. corn stocks for the 2025/26 marketing year were projected at 2.11 billion bushels, down slightly from the USDA's forecast a month earlier as record-large U.S. exports were seen absorbing more of the crop. Still, the supply outlook was the largest since the 2018/19 season, according to USDA data.

For soybeans, the USDA projected U.S. yield at a slightly higher-than-expected 53.5 bushels per acre, compared with 53.6 bushels in August. It pegged production at 4.301 billion bushels, up from 4.292 billion bushels a month earlier as the agency increased harvested acres.

The agency raised its U.S. soybean ending stocks forecast by 10 million bushels after cutting its export projection to the lowest since a U.S. trade war with top-importer China during President Donald Trump's first term.

Export sales have slumped again due to a renewed trade dispute with Beijing, which has not yet booked any new-crop purchases from the United States.