RPT-COLUMN-China's rare cut to power pollution offset by higher US emissions: Maguire

By Gavin Maguire

LITTLETON, Colorado, Sept 11 (Reuters) - It's been said that there's little point in other countries cutting back on pollution while China keeps building new coal plants and lifts its own emissions ever higher.

But so far in 2025 China's power sector has managed a rare decline in pollution from the use of fossil fuels, which bodes well for climate trackers hoping that China's mammoth pollution trends are close to peaking.

The problem is, the cuts made in China have been more than offset by sharply higher discharge from power plants in the United States, where coal-fired electricity generation has jumped to three-year highs in 2025.

The higher pollution load from the U.S. means that global power sector pollution will likely keep climbing this year even if China's power emissions fall.

The U.S. pollution offset also clearly negates the argument that it is pointless to cut pollution while China's emissions expand, and reveals that the world could get closer to capping power sector discharge if other countries follow China's lead.

COAL CUTS

Between January and July, China's emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel use in power generation dropped by 30 million metric tons compared to the same months in 2024, data from energy think tank Ember shows.

That emissions cut marks a 1% fall from the year before and comes after two straight years of pollution growth during the January to July period in China.

On a full-year basis, China's power emissions from fossil fuels have recorded nine straight years of growth, so even a modest pullback in power emissions in 2025 would mark a rare milestone in China's pollution reduction efforts.

Total power emissions from fossil fuel use were 3.24 billion tons of CO2 during January to July, down from 3.27 billion tons during January to July of 2024.

Key to the emissions drop has been the first cut in coal-fired power generation since 2022, which in turn has been facilitated by a 14% year-over-year rise in clean electricity output.

Total clean electricity production during the January to July window was 2,445 terawatt hours (TWh), which is around 303 TWh more than was generated during the same months last year.

Electricity generation from coal-fired power plants - which remains China's main power source - was 3,277 TWh during January to July, down around 30 TWh or 1% from the same months in 2024.

Gas-fired electricity generation in China was also down by around 1% from a year ago.

US POWERING UP

As China's power sector has curbed coal use this year, U.S. power firms have raised it, with coal-fired electricity supplies jumping by 16% during the January to July window from the same months in 2024.

Total U.S. coal-fired electricity supplies were 435 TWh during January to July, up from 375 TWh a year ago and the highest since 2022.

The emissions toll from that spike in coal use was a 37 million ton increase in CO2 discharge compared to the same months last year.

Total U.S. power sector emissions from fossil fuel use during January to July were 978 million tons of CO2, up from 941 million tons for the same period in 2024.

U.S. power emissions were amplified by a rise in coal's share of the generation mix from just under 15% a year ago to nearly 17% so far in 2025.

The main driver of that higher coal use was a climb in the price of natural gas during the opening months of the year.

Natural gas-fired power plants remain the primary power source in the U.S., but power firms cut gas generation by 4% during January to July after gas prices averaged 65% more during the opening half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024.

To compensate for the lower gas-fired supplies, power firms burned cheaper but higher-emitting coal instead, triggering the swell in pollution.

CLEANING UP

Alongside higher coal-fired output, U.S. utilities also generated around 30% more solar-powered electricity during January to July compared to a year earlier, and 3% more wind and hydro-powered electricity.

Total U.S. clean electricity generation during January to July rose by 6% to a record 1,155 TWh.

Clean power's share of the U.S. electricity generation mix also climbed to a record 44% during January to July, up from just under 43% the year before.

However, with total electricity demand rising at its fastest pace in decades, U.S. utilities continue to rely on fossil fuels for a majority of electricity production.

And with thermal coal prices still roughly 20% cheaper than gas prices for power generation, many utilities are likely to sustain their high use of coal within the generation mix in order to keep overall costs in check.

This suggests that further increases in U.S. emissions could be seen, which would drive global power pollution levels to new highs even if China manages to keep its own fossil fuel use in check through the rest of the year.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

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