US natgas extends losses as mild weather, ample supply weigh

ReutersAug 26, 2025 2:18 PM

LNG feedgas near record highs, though Corpus Christi plant cuts demand
Prices hit lowest level since November 4 on Monday
U.S., Russian officials discussed LNG equipment deals during Ukraine talks, sources say

By Sherin Elizabeth Varghese

Aug 26 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell for a third straight session on Tuesday, as mild weather forecasts and ample supplies kept pressure on the market.

Front-month gas futures for September delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 1% to $2.80 per million British thermal units at 10:03 a.m. EDT (1403 GMT). The contract fell on Monday to its lowest since November 4, 2024.

Analysts said prices remained under pressure with weather trends pointing to limited demand and little fundamental support for a sustained rebound.

Financial firm LSEG estimated 131 cooling degree days (CDDs) over the next two weeks, lower than the 142 CDDs estimated on Monday. The norm for this time of year is 135 CDDs. CDDs, which are used to estimate demand to cool homes and businesses, measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is above 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius).

"While Thursday's EIA storage will likely offer a smaller than normal injection that would shrink the surplus by about 7 bcf according to our forecast, a major swing away from the current supply overhang of about 175 bcf appears unlikely when looking toward the end of next month," said Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch and Associates in Florida.

Last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said energy firms added 13 billion cubic feet of gas to storage during the week ended August 15. That was smaller than the 22-bcf build analysts had forecast in a Reuters poll, and compares with an increase of 29 bcf during the same week last year and an average build of 35 bcf over the 2020 to 2024 period. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

"But we are still considering developments in the coming month capable of shrinking the surplus significantly and the possibility of storm-related disrupted production through the GOM alleys comes to mind as well as a continued near-record flow of exports," Ritterbusch said.

In the tropics, the U.S. National Hurricane Center projected no disturbances in the Atlantic Ocean. Tropical Storm Fernand, which developed south-southeast of Bermuda on Saturday, is expected to continue weakening and will likely transition into a post-tropical cyclone later tonight or early Wednesday before dissipating on Thursday.

LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states had risen to 108.5 billion cubic feet per day so far in August, up from a record monthly high of 107.8 bcfd in July.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would ease from 111.1 bcfd this week to 106.6 bcfd next week and 103.9 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next were similar to LSEG's outlook on Monday.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to 15.9 bcfd so far in August, up from 15.6 bcfd in July. That compares with a record monthly high of 16.0 bcfd in April.

Cheniere Energy's LNG.N Corpus Christi LNG plant in south Texas was pulling half its usual amount of natural gas on Tuesday, according to LSEG data, suggesting one of its plants could be down.

The reduced demand for natural gas from Corpus Christi resulted in an overall drop in natural gas use from U.S. LNG plants to 15.4 bcf on Tuesday from 16.3 bcf on Monday. The U.S. is the world's largest LNG exporter and Cheniere its largest LNG producer.

Meanwhile, U.S. and Russian officials discussed potential energy deals on the sidelines of recent Ukraine peace talks, including possible Russian purchases of U.S. equipment for sanctioned LNG projects, such as Arctic LNG 2, five sources said.

	Week ended Aug 22 Forecast	Week ended Aug 15 Actual	Year ago Aug 22	Five-year average Aug 22
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+32	+13	+35	+38
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,231	3,199	3,329	3,063
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+5.5%	+5.8%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1	2.73	2.65	2.09	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	9.82	9.78	12.40	10.95	15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	11.55	11.55	13.31	11.89	15.23


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs	12	10	10	9	10
U.S. GFS CDDs	131	142	152	146	135
U.S. GFS TDDs	143	152	162	155	145

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	108.4	108.8	108.8	101.7	97.9
U.S. Imports from Canada	7.5	7.4	7.5	N/A	7.5
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1
Total U.S. Supply	115.8	116.3	116.3	N/A	105.5

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	2.4	2.6	2.5	N/A	2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico	7.4	7.4	7.3	N/A	6.4
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	15.0	15.9	15.6	13.1	10.2
U.S. Commercial	4.5	4.6	4.6	4.5	4.6
U.S. Residential	3.6	3.7	3.7	3.7	3.4
U.S. Power Plant	48.3	42.6	40.4	43.5	44.4
U.S. Industrial	22.2	22.2	22.2	21.8	21.9
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.4	5.4	5.4	5.3	5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.3	2.1	2.1	2.2	3.1
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	86.3	80.8	78.4	81.1	82.8
Total U.S. Demand	111.1	106.6	103.9	N/A	95.3

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual	2022 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	77	77	74	83	107
Jan-Jul	78	78	76	77	102
Oct-Sep	80	80	77	76	103

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Aug 29	Week ended Aug 22	2024	2023	2022
Wind	8	6	11	10	11
Solar	8	7	5	4	3
Hydro	6	5	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	56	46	42	41	38
Coal	20	19	16	17	21
Nuclear	23	17	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	2.76	2.76
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	1.64	1.66
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	3.38	3.27
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	1.58	1.64
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	2.42	2.50
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	1.76	1.85
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	3.64	3.51
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	1.30	0.92
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.00	0.79

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	32.25	45.50
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX	27.93	36.40
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	79.48	117.65
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	57.58	73.29
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	48.13	55.13

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