OPEC predicts tight Oil market – Commerzbank

FXStreetAug 15, 2025 11:55 AM

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In its monthly report, OPEC has slightly raised its forecast for Oil demand next year, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

OPEC's demand forecast is very optimistic

"At the same time, supply outside OPEC+ is expected to rise less strongly than previously anticipated. As a result, demand for Oil from OPEC+ will increase, which points to a tighter Oil market. Against this backdrop, OPEC+ would have scope to further increase production next year."

"However, OPEC's demand forecast is very optimistic, with expected increases of 1.3 million and 1.4 million barrels per day this year and next. OPEC also published figures on OPEC+ Oil production in July. According to these figures, production by countries bound by quotas was 187,000 barrels per day below the agreed level."

"Kazakhstan continued to produce significantly more, while Iraq and Russia produced less than allowed due to compensatory cuts. Saudi Arabia's Oil production was significantly higher in June and significantly lower in July. However, the deviations largely offset each other."

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