US natural gas prices fall nearly 5% on higher production

ReutersAug 4, 2025 3:06 PM

Aug 4 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell for a second straight session on Monday, slipping nearly 5% as higher production continued to weigh on prices.

Front-month gas futures for September delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange were down 15.1 cents, or 4.9%, to $2.93 per million British thermal units as of 10:50 a.m. EDT (1450 GMT).

"Strong U.S. production is going to continue and that is kind of a negative for prices," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst for Price Futures Group.

"If prices go below $3, we think it'll be short-lived for the next couple weeks, but if we don't see hot weather develop, then we will go south of $3."

LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 so far in August stood at 107.9 billion cubic feet per day, compared with the monthly record of 107.6 bcfd set in July.

Energy services firm Baker Hughes said in its closely watched report on Friday that U.S. gas rigs rose by two to 124 last week, the highest level since August 2023. RIG/U

Last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said energy firms added 48 billion cubic feet of gas to storage during the week ended July 25. That figure was much bigger than the 37 bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll. EIA/GAS

"A strong price rally toward the $3.50 area cannot be ruled out should the temperatures show another period of extreme heat amid some injection of storm premium, especially if European gas demand increases in response to the U.S. tariff factor and possible Russian sanctions," analysts at energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.

There is some storm activity in the Atlantic, but none of it is currently impacting the Gulf of Mexico, a key hub for U.S. oil and natural gas production and refining.

U.S. liquefied natural gas company Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas was taking on more natural gas on Monday in a sign that the plant exited an outage over the weekend, according to a company filing with state regulators and gas flow data from financial company LSEG.

Elsewhere, Equinor restarted its Hammerfest LNG terminal on Sunday, Europe's largest natural gas export facility, after more than three months of maintenance.

	Week ended Aug 1 Forecast	Week ended Jul 25 Actual	Year ago Aug 1	Five-year average Aug 1
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+25	+48	+21	+29
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,148	3,123	3,267	2,957
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+6.5%	+6.7%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1	3.01	3.09	2.21	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	11.64	11.15	10.32	10.95	15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	12	-	12.32	11.89	15.23


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs	2	1	4	2	4
U.S. GFS CDDs	233	235	188	176	168
U.S. GFS TDDs	235	236	192	178	172

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	108.4	108	107.8		97.8
U.S. Imports from Canada	8.0	7.8	8.3		7.8
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1
Total U.S. Supply	116.3	115.9	116.1		105.7

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	1.9	2.7	2.7		2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.9	7.0	7.0		6.4
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	14.7	15.4	15.5		10.0
U.S. Commercial	4.4	4.4	4.4		4.7
U.S. Residential	3.6	3.7	3.5		3.5
U.S. Power Plant	51.3	42.8	47.4		48.1
U.S. Industrial	22.1	22.2	22.2		21.7
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.4	5.3	5.3		5.4
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.4	2.1	2.3		3.3
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1		0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	89.3	80.7	85.3		86.9
Total U.S. Demand	112.8	105.8	110.5		99.2

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual	2022 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	77	77	74	83	107
Jan-Jul	78	78	76	77	102
Oct-Sep	80	81	77	76	103


U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Aug 8	Week ended Aug 1	2024	2023	2022
Wind	9	8	11	10	11
Solar	10	8	5	4	3
Hydro	6	5	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	52	54	42	41	38
Coal	21	23	16	17	21
Nuclear	23	19	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	3.00	2.99
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	2.22	2.23
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	3.15	3.30
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	2.08	2.24
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	2.63	2.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	2.41	2.63
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	3.09	3.14
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	0.50	0.63
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	0.67	0.42

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	59.93	42.50
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX	46.37	40.23
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	34.98	38.83
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	44.30	37.28
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	28.96	21.79

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