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GRAINS-Wheat stable after falls caused by expectations of good supplies

ReutersAug 4, 2025 11:41 AM

By Michael Hogan

- Chicago wheat futures stabilised on Monday, with buying interest sparked after earlier weakness as advancing harvests in the Northern Hemisphere raised expectations that markets will be well supplied.

Corn and soybean futures fell on expectations of good U.S. harvests.

“Markets are making a choppy start to the week with wheat seeing slight firmness with some bargain-buying after recent lows, while corn and soybeans are weakened by good U.S. crop weather,” said Matt Ammermann, StoneX commodity risk manager.

Chicago Board of Trade most-active wheat Wv1 was up 0.1% to $5.17-1/4 a bushel at 1134 GMT, after earlier on Monday touching $5.13, a new life-of-contract low and close to May's five-year low of $5.06-1/4.

Corn Cv1 fell 0.4% to $4.09 a bushel, soybeans Sv1 fell 0.2% to $9.86-1/2 a bushel.

“Wheat still has a bearish constellation with Northern Hemisphere harvests likely to provide good supplies," Ammermann said. "There is some support from rain in parts of the EU including Germany and the Baltics, which is threatening last-minute quality damage to new crop wheat.”

“Russian farmer selling of new crop has also been slow, but overall world demand is thin in the face of increasing new crop supplies.”

Consultants Sovecon on Friday cut their forecast for Russia's 2025 wheat crop to 83.3 million metric tons from 83.6 million tons, but a harvest of that size would be large by historical standards.

Many other countries are on track for large production years, and rainfall in Southern Hemisphere exporters Argentina and Australia has improved the outlook for their harvests later in the year.

“Corn and soybeans are lower as U.S. harvest weather is non-threatening," Ammermann said. "Markets await news of U.S. yield forecasts and U.S. crop progress reports later today.”

The U.S. Department of Agriculture will report on U.S. wheat harvest progress later on Monday.

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