US natgas prices drift lower, focus on storage report

ReutersJul 31, 2025 1:28 PM

July 31 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures drifted lower on Thursday and headed for a monthly decline on rising production and a cooler weather view, while market participants awaited a federal weekly storage report due later in the day.

Front-month gas futures for September delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange were down 0.9% at $3.019 per million British thermal units at 9:08 am EDT (13:08 GMT). Prices were down over 12% so far this month.

"We've been in a very hot pattern for most of July. However, we're now seeing a dip in cooling degree days over the next five or so days. Secondly, production estimates are strong and LNG feed gas demand has been a bit rocky ," Robert DiDona, president of Energy Ventures Analysis said.

"However, the market is fairly oversold. So, if anything bullish shows up, I think prices are going to find some support from technicals."

LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 has risen to 107.5 billion cubic feet per day in July, surpassing the previous monthly record of 106.4 bcfd set in June.

It also projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 113.0 bcfd this week to 108.0 bcfd next week.

Analysts at energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note that further price decline in the September contract to the $2.85 level appears likely. They added that an additional down swing to as low as $2.50 cannot be ruled out if the second half of next month proves cooler than normal.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration is scheduled to release its weekly storage report at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT). According to the average estimate of analysts in a Reuters poll, U.S. energy firms likely added an above-normal 37 billion cubic feet of natural gas into storage last week. That compares with an injection of 18 bcf during the same week a year ago and a five-year (2020-2024) average increase of 24 bcf for this time of year. EIA/GAS

	Week ended Jul 25 Forecast	Week ended Jul 18 Actual	Year ago Jul 25	Five-year average Jul 25
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+37	+23	+18	+24
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,112	3,075	3,246	2,928
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+6.3%	+5.9%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1		3.045	2.21	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	11.67	10.97	10.32	10.95	15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	12.04		12.32	11.89	15.23


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs	1	2	5	3	4
U.S. GFS CDDs	223	235	200	178	195
U.S. GFS TDDs	224	237	205	181	199

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	108	108.3	108.1		97.8
U.S. Imports from Canada	8.1	8.0	7.8		7.8
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1
Total U.S. Supply	116.1	116.3	115.9		105.7

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	2.1	1.9	1.9		2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.8	6.8	6.9		6.4
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	15.2	14.8	15.4		10.0
U.S. Commercial	4.4	4.4	4.4		4.7
U.S. Residential	3.6	3.6	3.6		3.5
U.S. Power Plant	43.9	51.4	45.9		48.1
U.S. Industrial	22.3	22.3	22.2		21.7
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.3	5.3	5.3		5.4
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.2	2.4	2.2		3.3
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1		0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	81.8	89.5	83.8		86.9
Total U.S. Demand	105.9	113.0	108.0		99.2

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual	2022 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	78	77	74	83	107
Jan-Jul	78	78	76	77	102
Oct-Sep	81	80	77	76	103


U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Aug 1	Week ended Jul 25	2024	2023	2022
Wind	8	10	11	10	11
Solar	7	7	5	4	3
Hydro	4	5	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	45	41	42	41	38
Coal	19	19	16	17	21
Nuclear	16	17	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	2.98	3.08
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	2.64	2.85
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	3.39	3.28
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	2.32	2.48
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	2.71	2.86
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	2.8	5.00
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	3.33	3.45
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	0.85	0.90
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	0.02	0.24

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	53.69
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX	62.85	190.21
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	45.16	55.66
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	44.60	43.59
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	31.40	29.73

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