Power producer Origin Energy flags weaker fiscal 2026 output from APLNG

By Adwitiya Srivastava and Rajasik Mukherjee

July 31 (Reuters) - Australia's Origin Energy ORG.AX on Thursday forecast a dip in annual output from the Australia Pacific LNG (APLNG) project, citing a decline in natural field, while softer commodity prices impacted its share of quarterly revenue from the project.

The country's no.2 power producer forecast total production from the APLNG project in Queensland between 635 petajoules (PJ) and 680 PJ in fiscal 2026, lower than the 682.1 PJ it produced in 2025.

However, the midpoint of this range is higher than the Visible Alpha consensus estimate of 654.61 PJ.

"For FY26, Origin expects Australia Pacific LNG production to be lower compared to FY25, reflecting the impact of natural field decline in some operated and non-operated fields," Origin CEO Frank Calabria said in a statement.

The APLNG project, which began production in late 2015 and is one of Origin's flagship sites, is a joint venture between Origin, U.S. oil and gas firm ConocoPhillips COP.N, and China's state-owned Sinopec.

Origin holds a 27.5% stake in the project and operates the project's gas fields.

"FY26 production guidance is soft... but the market doesn't seem too concerned, judging by the relatively flat share price," said Adrian Atkins, a senior equity analyst at Morningstar.

Origin's shares were trading largely flat at A$11.675 apiece, as of 0506 GMT.

Analysts at Jefferies hiked their price target on Origin to A$12.34 per share, and said they continue to view the company as "well-positioned" to use its cash flow for additional renewable investments. They also believe Origin can achieve the midpoint of production for the next several years.

In the fourth quarter ending June 30, the APLNG project produced 169.2 PJ, down 3% from last year. Origin's share of production slipped marginally to 46.5 PJ, while commodity revenue fell 7% to A$547 million ($353.64 million).

Origin's full-year share of production slipped 2% to 187.6 PJ, largely owing to unplanned outages and poor performance at some of its central Queensland assets. Tepid demand from China, Australia's largest trading partner also weighed.

($1 = 1.5468 Australian dollars)