US natgas futures ease as production rises, demand softens

ReutersJul 30, 2025 8:01 PM

July 30 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell on Wednesday as higher production and forecasts for milder weather that was expected to reduce cooling demand weighed on prices.

Front-month gas futures for September delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange were down 97 cents, or 3.1%, to settle at $3.05 per million British thermal units, after hitting its highest level since July 23 earlier in the session.

"It appears that the market is showing at least for now an ample supply," said Thomas Saal, senior vice president for energy trading at StoneX Financial.

LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 has risen to 107.5 billion cubic feet per day so far in July, up from a monthly record high of 106.4 bcfd in June.

With the market now trading September futures, prices are drifting slightly lower as September is typically associated with milder weather compared to August, Saal added.

Financial firm LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would fall from 113 bcfd this week to 108 bcfd next week.

It also estimated 235 cooling degree days over the next two weeks, down from 239 estimated on Monday. CDDs, used to estimate demand to cool homes and businesses, measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is above 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18.3 degrees Celsius).

Shell-led SHEL.L LNG Canada is experiencing technical problems as it ramps up production at its liquefied natural gas plant at Kitimat, British Columbia, with one LNG tanker diverting away from the facility without the superchilled fuel in recent days, according to four sources and LSEG ship tracking data.

Dutch and British wholesale gas contracts were largely steady after some initial gains, amid an unchanged short-term outlook but risks of increased competition for liquefied natural gas (LNG) could be a concern. NG/EU

	Week ended Jul 25 Forecast	Week ended Jul 18 Actual	Year ago Jul 25	Five-year average Jul 25
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+42	+23	+18	+24
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,117	3,075	3,246	2,928
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+6.5%	+5.9%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1	3.03	3.06	2.21	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	10.97	10.91	10.32	10.95	15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	-	-	12.32	11.89	15.23


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs	2	2	5	2	3
U.S. GFS CDDs	235	239	203	180	172
U.S. GFS TDDs	237	241	208	182	175

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	108	108.2	108.0		97.8
U.S. Imports from Canada	8.1	8.0	7.8		7.8
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1
Total U.S. Supply	116.1	116.3	115.8		105.7

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	2.1	1.9	1.9		2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.8	6.8	6.9		6.4
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	15.2	15.0	15.4		10.0
U.S. Commercial	4.4	4.4	4.4		4.7
U.S. Residential	3.6	3.6	3.5		3.5
U.S. Power Plant	43.9	51.3	45.6		48.1
U.S. Industrial	22.3	22.3	22.3		21.7
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.3	5.3	5.3		5.4
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.2	2.4	2.2		3.3
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1		0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	81.8	89.4	83.5		86.9
Total U.S. Demand	105.9	113.1	107.8		99.2

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual	2022 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	77	77	74	83	107
Jan-Jul	78	78	76	77	102
Oct-Sep	80	80	77	76	103


U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Aug 1	Week ended Jul 25	2024	2023	2022
Wind	8	10	11	10	11
Solar	7	7	5	4	3
Hydro	4	5	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	44	41	42	41	38
Coal	19	19	16	17	21
Nuclear	16	17	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	3.08	3.11
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	2.85	2.89
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	3.28	3.24
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	2.48	2.56
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	2.86	2.95
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	5.00	6.25
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	3.45	3.44
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	0.9	1.26
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	0.24	0.22

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	-	171.03
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX	190.21	203.11
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	55.66	74.64
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	43.59	52.38
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	29.73	36.25

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