RPT-COLUMN-Crop Watch: Yield threats still possible despite near-ideal season: Braun

By Karen Braun

NAPERVILLE, Illinois, July 14 (Reuters) - While the United States appears well on its way to a record corn crop, the top exporter is not completely immune to yield barriers from here, particularly when it comes to temperatures over the next several weeks.

However, Crop Watch observations thus far demonstrate that risks have already emerged for soybeans. Many of the later-planted fields are still trying to establish footing, and all 11 Crop Watch fields are vulnerable to next month’s weather conditions.

Weather complaints among the Crop Watch producers have been nearly nonexistent for the past few weeks, and that mostly held true last week. More than 4 inches (10.2 centimeters) of rain fell in Nebraska and western Iowa, keeping soils overly saturated.

That storm in western Iowa snapped 30% of corn plants in the Crop Watch field, reducing yield potential. Events like these can chip away at the national yield if they persist, especially as the corn moves toward maturity.

A poll I posted on X on Friday suggested that the corn market is trading a yield around 184 bushels per acre, well above USDA's trendline of 181, which would be a record. The difference between those two yields is 260 million bushels, impactful for the balance sheet.

Another very small concern would be the cooler temperatures expected for this week, especially in northern areas. Heat is needed to push both crops along at this point, especially in North Dakota where corn and beans got a late, wet start.

However, producers are combating yield risks despite low commodity prices. They are putting money into this year’s crop, such as applying fungicides and herbicides, especially with yield prospects looking as strong as they do.

STEADY SCORES

Average Crop Watch corn yield potential held at 4.07 this week, with slight bumps in western Illinois and South Dakota offsetting the western Iowa decline. Average soybean yield held at 3.48 with a boost in North Dakota balancing a reduction in Kansas.

That corn score is on the upper end of ones seen at this point in previous years, but bean yields are relatively low.

Average Crop Watch corn conditions held at 4.11 this week, with bumps in North Dakota and Nebraska offsetting the decline in western Iowa. That snapped a six-week streak of weekly corn health improvements, though no decline has been seen yet this year.

Average soybean conditions dropped slightly to 3.5 from 3.52 a week ago. Scores dropped in Kansas, but slight improvements were recorded in southeastern Illinois and both Dakotas.

The 11 Crop Watch producers have been assigning condition scores to their fields each week on a 1-to-5 scale, similar to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s system where 1 is very poor, 3 is average and 5 is excellent.

Last week they added yield scores, also on a 1-to-5 scale. These reflect producers’ best guesses of current yield potential where 3 is around farm average, 4 is solidly above average and 5 is among the best crops ever. Condition and yield scores may differ since conditions are a visual assessment that do not incorporate yield assumptions.

The week ahead is set to feature adequate moisture for most of the Corn Belt, accompanied by mild-to-cool temperatures. This should be favorable for the Crop Watch corn fields, which are approaching the halfway point on pollination.

Producers would be concerned if overnight temperatures turned too warm later this month and into August as this can limit grain-filling on the corn. A very extreme version of that was observed in 2010, where early forecasts for record corn yields were slashed in the subsequent months.

Current long-range forecasts suggest that warmer-than-average temperatures could prevail in late July and early August for the central, southern and eastern Corn Belt, while the north and far west could be in for a cooler run.

Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own.

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