US natgas prices at one-week high on colder forecasts ahead of storage report

ReutersFeb 6, 2025 12:59 PM

US gas storage withdrawals may have hit a record high in January
US gas production on track for record high in February
US LNG export feedgas on track for record high in February

By Scott DiSavino

Feb 6 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% to a fresh one-week high on Thursday on forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 3.4 cents, or 1.0%, to $3.394 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) by 7:44 a.m. EST (1244 GMT), putting the contract on track for its highest close since Jan. 29 for a second day in a row.

That price increase came despite a rise in daily output and ahead of a federal report expected to show last week's storage withdrawal was near normal for this time of year.

Analysts projected utilities pulled 168 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended January 31. That compares with a drop of 110 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year average draw of 174 bcf for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

After extreme cold late last month boosted heating demand to a record high, analysts said energy firms may have pulled a record amount of gas out of storage in January. The current record monthly storage withdrawal is 994 bcf in January 2022, according to federal energy data.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 106.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February, up from 102.7 bcfd in January when freezing oil and gas wells and pipes, known as freeze-offs, cut production. That compares with a monthly record of 104.6 bcfd in December 2023.

Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly near normal through February 21 except for some colder-than-normal days from February 10-14.

With colder weather coming, LSEG forecasts average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will rise from 124.1 bcfd this week to 135.1 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.

The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 14.9 bcfd so far in February, up from 14.6 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar, as much higher global prices feed demand for more exports, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Gas was trading at a 15-month high of around $17 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe. In Asia, meanwhile, gas was trading around $14 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark. NG/EU

	Week ended Jan 31 Forecast	Week ended Jan 24 Actual	Year ago Jan 31	Five-year average Jan 31
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	-168	-321	-110	-174
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	2,403	2,571	2,605	2,508
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	-4.2%	-4.1%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1	3.36	3.36	1.80	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	16.59	15.29	8.12	10.95	15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	14.43	14.49	8.93	11.89	15.23


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs	413	406	342	413	405
U.S. GFS CDDs	11	12	3	6	5
U.S. GFS TDDs	424	418	345	419	410

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	103.9	106.2	105.8	105.7	95.8
U.S. Imports from Canada	10.2	9.9	9.8	N/A	8.0
U.S. LNG Imports	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2
Total U.S. Supply	114.1	116.1	115.6	N/A	104.0

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	3.5	3.5	3.5	N/A	2.9
U.S. Exports to Mexico	5.8	4.9	5.6	N/A	5.0
U.S. LNG Exports	12.9	14.0	14.4	13.3	11.3
U.S. Commercial	17.7	15.1	17.5	13.8	15.9
U.S. Residential	30.2	24.4	29.2	22.3	26.4
U.S. Power Plant	33.1	29.2	30.7	31.0	30.0
U.S. Industrial	25.6	24.8	25.8	24.4	25.1
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.1	5.2	5.2	5.2	5.1
U.S. Pipe Distribution	3.1	2.7	3.0	2.7	4.0
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	115.0	101.6	111.5	102.7	106.7
Total U.S. Demand	137.2	124.1	135.1	N/A	125.9

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual	2022 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	85	85	74	83	107
Jan-Jul	82	81	76	77	102
Oct-Sep	83	83	77	76	103


U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Feb 7	Week ended Jan 31	2024	2023	2022
Wind	13	12	11	10	11
Solar	4	4	5	4	3
Hydro	5	5	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	38	39	42	41	38
Coal	16	20	16	17	21
Nuclear	22	20	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	3.22	3.25
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	3.17	3.43
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	3.65	3.66
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	2.97	3.03
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	3.10	3.09
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	13.10	19.25
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	3.99	3.97
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	1.86	2.15
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.81	2.04

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	142.23	162.47
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX	44.36	47.25
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	84.69	90.48
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	28.38	26.40
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	28.02	29.41

For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

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NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C

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