At the inaugural FOMC meeting chaired by the newly appointed Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, the median dot plot shifted directly from rate-cut expectations to rate-hike expectations. Interest rate futures immediately priced in a roughly 70% probability of a rate hike in September, plunging the market into a rate-hike panic. This article argues that the market is highly likely overestimating the intensity of this rate-hike cycle. Even if rate hikes do resume in September, the move would fundamentally represent a robust tightening characterized by "withdrawing insurance rate cuts against the backdrop of a still-resilient economy," which is fundamentally different from the panic-driven tightening of 2022. For long-term investors in US equities, this shift presents opportunities that outweigh the risks. However, this assessment is conditional and must be dynamically adjusted using three indicators as anchors: core inflation, long-term inflation expectations, and the unemployment rate.

TradingKeyThu, Jun 25

Walmart Stock Price Prediction 2030: Can WMT Shares Hit $200?

Despite stable Q1 FY27 results, premium valuations and margin headwinds caused a Walmart (WMT) stock sell-off. However, analysts remain bullish, citing long-term growth driven by high-margin digital transformations toward 2030.

TradingKeyTue, May 26

Walmart Revenue Beats Expectations But Drops Over 7%, Can Transformation Highlights Support Its Stock Rebound?

TradingKey - Walmart (WMT) reported first-quarter total revenue of $177.8 billion, a 7.3% year-on-year increase, exceeding market expectations of $174.98 billion. However, as full-year earnings guidance fell short of analyst estimates and fuel costs continued to rise, shares tumbled 7.27% to close at $121.34, marking the stock's largest single-day decline in nearly two years.

TradingKeyFri, May 22

Today’s Market Recap: Quantum Stocks Soar, Trump Issues Iran Warning, and S&P Edges Up

U.S. markets edged higher alongside a massive quantum computing rally, while investors navigated rising stagflation risks, geopolitical tensions regarding Iran, and controversy surrounding the SpaceX IPO.

TradingKeyFri, May 22

U.S. Pre-Market: Nvidia Results Drive Memory Stocks Higher, Quantum Computing Stocks Surge, New Fed Chair Warsh to Take Office

TradingKey - Pre-market on Thursday, May 21 (ET), the three major U.S. stock index futures declined. Oil prices edged higher, with WTI crude rising to near $100 and Brent crude climbing to $107, ending a two-day losing streak.

TradingKeyThu, May 21

Walmart Q1 Earnings Preview: Consumer Confidence Hits Historic Low, Can the Retail King Navigate Headwinds?

TradingKey - Walmart (WMT) will release its first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings report before the market opens on May 21, Eastern Time. Market consensus expects revenue of approximately $174.57 billion, up 5.36% year-on-year, and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.66, up 7.9% year-on-year.

TradingKeyMon, May 18