델렉(DK) 2026년 3분기 실적 발표 콘퍼런스콜: 조정 EBITDA 12억 8,000만 달러 기록

핵심 요약

• 델렉은 2026년 3분기 순이익이 약 11억 3,000만 달러(주당 18.22달러)를 기록했다고 발표했다. 조정 순이익은 약 8억 4,300만 달러(주당 13.55달러)였다.
• 조정 EBITDA는 약 12억 8,000만 달러에 달했다. 50%의 RVO(재생연료혼합의무) 조정 및 소규모 정유소 면제(SRE) 효과를 제외한 조정 EBITDA는 약 10억 4,000만 달러였으며, 조정 EPS는 10.53달러였다.
• 회사는 전사 최적화 계획(EOP) 목표치를 연간 런레이트 기준 최소 2억 5,000만 달러로 상향 조정했다. 경영진은 EOP가 3분기 실적에 약 6,000만 달러를 기여한 것으로 추산했다.
• 델렉은 2025년 대상 소규모 정유소 면제 4건을 모두 승인받았으며, 2026년 4분기에 관련 수익으로 약 4억 2,500만 달러가 유입될 것으로 예상하고 있다.
• 분기 배당금은 주당 0.30달러로 약 18% 인상됐다. 3분기 5,000만 달러 규모의 자사주 매입에 이어, 경영진은 4분기에 약 1억 달러 규모의 자사주를 매입할 것으로 전망했다.
• 델렉 로지스틱스(Delek Logistics)를 제외한 델렉의 순부채는 2분기 대비 2억 2,400만 달러 개선되어, 회사는 단독 기준 약 2,200만 달러의 순현금 상태를 확보했다.

주요 재무 데이터

사업 및 운영 실적

델렉은 이번 분기 동안 4개 정유공장 모두 안정적으로 가동됐다고 밝혔다. 빅스프링(Big Spring) 공장은 정기보수 이후 신뢰도 향상, 원유 도입선 유연성 확대, 석유제품 수율 개선, 블렌딩 역량 확장 등을 바탕으로 견조한 실적을 냈다. 2026년 잔여 기간 동안 추가로 예정된 정기보수는 없다.

정제마진 강세와 캡처율 상승이 전분기 대비 조정 EBITDA 개선을 이끌었다. 경영진은 캡처율 개선의 일부가 조직 전반에 걸친 90개 이상의 프로젝트를 포함하는 EOP에 따른 구조적 변화 덕분이라고 설명했다.

공급 및 마케팅 부문은 약 3,700만 달러의 마진을 기록했다. 도매 마케팅이 3,670만 달러를 차지했으며, 아스팔트 부문의 460만 달러 손실은 공급 활동에서 발생한 460만 달러의 이익으로 상쇄됐다.

델렉 로지스틱스(DKL)는 3분기에 약 1억 4,300만 달러의 조정 EBITDA를 창출했다. DKL은 2026년 EBITDA 연간 가이던스를 5억 3,000만~5억 6,000만 달러로 상향했다. 아울러 2026년에 실현된 1,500만 달러에 더해, 2027년에도 자체 성장 프로젝트를 통해 런레이트 기준 6,000만 달러의 EBITDA를 추가한다는 계획을 순조롭게 추진 중이다.

DKL은 첫 사워 가스 압축기 기지와 산성 가스 주입정 건설을 완료하고 시설 시운전을 진행 중이었다. 경영진은 프로포마(pro forma) 기준 제3자 조정 EBITDA 비중이 80%를 초과할 것으로 계속 기대하고 있으며, 이는 장기적인 연결 제외 전략을 뒷받침한다. 델렉의 DKL 지분율은 79%에서 약 58%로 낮아졌으나, 경영진은 지분율을 50% 미만으로 낮추기 위한 구체적인 일정은 제시하지 않았다.

경영진 가이던스

기간대출 상환에 따라, 경영진은 단독 기준 DK의 이자비용이 분기 런레이트 기준 약 1,000만 달러 수준이 될 것으로 예상하고 있다.

경영진은 또한 4분기에 약 4억 2,500만 달러의 SRE 관련 대금이 유입될 것으로 예상했다. 컨퍼런스 콜에서 논의된 당시 RIN 가격을 기준으로, 회사는 총 회계상 이익을 약 7억 5,000만~8억 달러로 추산했다. 이는 실현 이익 3억 3,500만 달러, 시가평가 미실현 이익 약 2억 7,400만 달러, 그리고 향후 수 분기에 걸쳐 초과 RIN이 미래 의무에 적용되면서 발생할 것으로 예상되는 추가 이익 1억 5,000만~2억 달러로 구성된다.

델렉은 회사의 개선된 운영 구조와 EOP 효과를 반영해 미드사이클 잉여현금흐름이 7억~8억 달러에 이를 것으로 예상하고 있다. 경영진은 향후 현금 배분이 재무제표 건전성 유지, 배당금 지급, 자사주 매입 간의 균형을 유지할 것이라고 강조했다.

리스크 및 주시 요인

중동 및 동유럽 사태와 연계된 높은 운임은 원유 가격차와 제품 수출에 지속적인 영향을 미치고 있다. 경영진은 파이프라인으로 운송되는 원유에 대한 접근성과 델렉의 높은 중간유분 수율 덕분에 위험 노출을 줄이고 있으나, 시장 변동성은 여전히 주요 변수라고 밝혔다.

3분기 영업활동 현금흐름은 약 8억 900만 달러의 운전자본 유출로 인해 감소했다. 여기에는 약 4억 2,500만 달러의 SRE 미수금, 향후 분기에 정상화될 것으로 예상되는 약 2억 달러의 시점 차이 관련 항목, 기타 금융 관련 항목에 묶인 약 1억 6,000만 달러가 포함됐다.

RIN 현금화의 시기와 가치는 의무 준수 요건, 현금 필요성, RIN 가격 노출도 및 세금 고려사항에 계속 좌우된다. 경영진은 델렉이 의무를 지속해서 준수할 방침임을 재확인했으나 구체적인 RIN 구매 또는 재고 전략에 대해서는 공개를 거부했다.

경영진은 낮은 재고 수준, 겨울철 수요, 높은 운임 등을 이유로 중간유분 및 항공유 마진에 대해 긍정적인 입장을 유지하고 있다. 다만 지정학적 사건과 운송 비용 변동이 향후 전망에 영향을 미칠 수 있음을 인정했다.

애널리스트 질의응답 하이라이트

• 자본 배분: 경영진은 델렉이 단순히 현금 잔고를 늘리기 위해 잉여 현금을 보유할 의도는 없다고 밝혔다. 회사는 경기 사이클 전반에 걸친 배당을 유지하고, 재무제표 건전성을 지키며, 절제된 자사주 매입을 지속할 계획이다. 2027년 자사주 매입 목표치는 제시되지 않았다.
• 정제 캡처율: 경영진은 이번 개선이 단순히 우호적인 시장 환경 때문만이 아니라 주로 구조적인 EOP 이니셔티브에 기인한다고 설명했다. 엘도라도 공장 관련 조치를 통해 배럴당 약 2달러의 수익성이 향상됐으며, 추가적인 개선을 목표로 하고 있다.
• 소규모 정유소 면제: 델렉은 기존 소송 및 사안들에 대해 낙관적인 입장을 유지하고 있으며, 자격을 갖춘 소규모 정유소에 대한 미 환경청(EPA)의 구제 조치가 2026년 이후에도 이어질 것으로 기대한다고 밝혔다. 다만 이러한 기대는 확정된 결과가 아닌 경영진의 견해로 제시됐다.
• 디젤 및 항공유: 경영진은 화물 운송 제약, 낮은 재고, 경제 활동, 겨울철 계절적 수요를 언급하며 향후 6~12개월간 중간유분 펀더멘털이 우호적으로 유지될 것으로 예상했다.
• DKL 분리: 경영진은 DKL 지분 축소가 사업별 가치합산(SOTP) 전략의 일환으로 계속 유지되고 있음을 재확인했으나, 추가적인 거래는 적절한 가치에서 이루어져야 한다고 밝혔다.
• 잠재적 정제능력 프로젝트: 델렉은 정부 당국과 논의를 이어가고 있으나, 타일러 공장의 원유 처리능력은 일일 75,000배럴로 유지될 것이며 공시할 만한 중대한 자본적 지출은 없다고 경영진은 밝혔다.

실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 전문

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Avigal Soreq

Successfully navigate the volatility in the crude and product markets caused by the events in Middle East and Eastern Europe.Second, we made further progress in increasing our free cash flow profile and have increased our ERP improvement guidance to at least $250 million. And third, we've also maintained our disciplined and balanced approach to capital allocation through balance sheet improvement, dividend increase and strong buybacks.

As I've mentioned in the past, maintaining discipline is critically important during periods of strong margins. We maintained prudent approach reflected in our disciplined capital deployment, focused on creating sustainable long-term shareholder value. As I mentioned, during our last earnings call, the events in the Middle East and Eastern Europe have created many repel effects in the markets. We continue to see elevated freight rates that impact expert and crude differentials. In the current environment, we believe that we have a key advantage through access to pipeline delivered in a crude limited exposure to elevated freight costs, high distillate yield and most importantly, the ability to respond quickly to changes in the market conditions.

This advantage are critical to maintaining operational flexibility and delivering strong performance. Now I will cover some of our third quarter highlights and strategic initiatives in detail. Starting with refining. Our refining system operated reliably with all 4 refineries running well. Big Spring has shown strong operating performance since its turnaround. It's exceeding its value creation target of improved reliability, higher crude slate flexibility, improvement in overall product yield and higher Ogden and blending capabilities. I'm very pleased with this improvement, and I'm confident that the Big Spring team will further improve this important asset. With no planned turnaround for the remainder of the year, our refining system is well positioned to capture the continued strength in Caxpet. Moving to ERP. Enterprise optimization plan continued to drive significant value. We are again increasing our EOP target to at least $250 million on an annual run rate basis. During the third quarter of 2026, we estimate approximately $60 million of EOP contribution to our P&L. We have come a long way from our initial target of $100 million of annual free cash flow improvement, and I'm proud of the continuous improvement culture that we have created.

Our sum of the parts initiatives also continue to progress with raising strength of our midstream business. DKL today raised its 2026 EBITDA guidance to $530 million to $560 million. is also on target to add an additional $60 million in EBITDA in 2027 from its organic growth project on a run rate basis. This is in addition to the $15 million that we have realized in 2026. DKL is completed the construction of the first sour compressor station and AGI well and is in the process of commissioning the facility. The sour gas solution will provide DKL the ability to fully capitalize on its growth opportunity in Dollar Basin and maintain its best-in-class EBITDA growth and yield.

On a pro forma basis, we continue to expect DKL third-party annual adjusted EBITDA to exceed 80%. This level of economic separation is a cornerstone of our sum-of-the-part strategy and continues to bring us closer to our deconsolidation goal. DKL is on the right path, and we continue to work hard to write the next chapter in its growth story. As I mentioned last quarter, we are pursuing a proactive strategy to manage our obligation under the -- the SRE provision of the RFS served the important purpose of mitigating the impact fell on small refineries from the RFS burden.

We have felt this burden in the past and are pleased to have received all 4 small refinery exemption for 2025 period. This will allow us to reduce our 2025 RVO burden and expect to receive approximately $425 million in proceeds in the fourth quarter. We expect EPA to continue to provide a relief to small refineries for the year 2026 and beyond. We believe the current administration, Senate, Congress and EPA realized the importance of SRs, not only for the refineries which qualify under the program, but also to the local communities they serve.

The final piece of our strategy is being shareholder-friendly and having a strong balance sheet. During the quarter, we paid approximately $16 million in dividend and $50 million in buyback. We -- our strong balance sheet, improved reliability, ERP and confident in our outlook, continue to support disciplined approach to capital allocation to continuing dividend and buyback. We remain committed to balanced and disciplined capital allocation strategy and are dedicated to rewarding our shareholders. In this regard, we have increased our quarterly dividend by approximately 18% to $0.30 per share. And after buying back worth of our shares in Q3, we expect to do approximately $100 million in shares buyback between now and the end of the year.

In closing, thank you to our team for the hard work and dedication. I'm immensely proud of the progress Delek has made, and I look forward to building on this momentum for the remainder of the year and beyond. Now I will turn the call over to Robert, who will provide additional color on the quarter.

Robert Wright

Thank you, Avigal. For the third quarter, Delek reported net income of approximately $1.13 billion or $18.22 per share with EBITDA of approximately $1.64 billion. On an adjusted basis, net income came in at approximately $843 million or $13.55 per share. with adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.28 billion. Turning to our investor presentation on Slide 4, we show the breakdown of adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS for the quarter. Excluding the 50% RVO adjustment and the impact of small refinery exemptions or SREs granted during the quarter, adjusted EBITDA was approximately $1.04 billion and adjusted EPS was approximately $10.53 per share.

On Slide 5, we walk through the bridge in adjusted EBITDA from the second quarter to the third quarter on the same basis, excluding the 50% RVO adjustment and the impacts of SREs. Quarter-over-quarter performance was led by stronger refining margins and higher capture rates. Supply and Marketing margin was approximately $37 million in the quarter with wholesale marketing contributing $36.7 million, driven by continued success of our EOP efforts and strong market environment. Asphalt was a loss of $4.6 million, fully offset by a $4.6 million profit from our supply business.

Our Logistics segment continues to deliver strong results, posting approximately $143 million in adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter as momentum continued across our crude, gas and water offerings. Let's move to Slide 6 for a review of cash flow. Cash flow from operations was $567 million for the quarter. This reflects net income adjusted for noncash items offset by a net working capital outflow of approximately $809 million. Excluding working capital, operating cash flow for the quarter was approximately $1.38 billion.

As to the working capital outflow, the majority of this was related to SRE receivables of approximately $425 million, and we expect these proceeds to come in the fourth quarter. The remainder of the impact is split between timing-related items of roughly $200 million, which we expect to normalize in the coming quarters and roughly $160 million, which is tied to other financing-related items. Investing activities were a use of $117 million for the quarter.

This includes capital expenditures of approximately $111 million with $55 million associated with DKL. Of that $55 million, $48 million of that went to growth projects at DKL and the remainder supported scheduled maintenance and regulatory spending across our system, ensuring our ability to run safely and reliably in the current macro environment. Financing activities provided approximately $256 million of net cash during the quarter.

Inflows were approximately $45 million of net proceeds from our 0 coupon convertible notes offering and approximately $220 million of net proceeds from the DKL equity offering. These were partially offset by $247 million of DKL revolver payments, $50 million of share repurchases and in dividend payments and approximately $22 million in DKL distribution payments to public unitholders. In addition, as Avigal mentioned, we are pleased to announce we're increasing our dividend to $0.30 per share and are expecting to spend approximately $100 million on buybacks in the fourth quarter.

Slide 18 breaks out our net debt position between Delek and Delek Logistics. On a stand-alone basis, excluding Delek Logistics Delek net debt has improved $224 million versus the second quarter and has moved to a net cash position of approximately $22 million. Now turning to Slide 19 and our outlook for the fourth quarter. Our total throughput guidance is as follows: Tyler, 75,000 to 80,000 barrels per day. El Dorado, 67,000 to 72,000 barrels per day.

Big Spring, 68,000 to 73,000 barrels per day and Krotz brings 78,000 to 83,000 barrels per day. Taken together, this implies a total system throughput target of 288,000 to 308,000 barrels per day for the fourth quarter. In addition to the throughput guidance for the fourth quarter of 2026, we expect operating expenses to be between $225 million and $235 million. G&A between $50 million and $55 million and D&A to be between $115 million and $125 million. As committed last quarter, we're also breaking out our interest expense between Delek and Delek Logistics.

We expect total net interest expense between $52 million and $67 million, with DK contributing between $12 million and $17 million and DKL contributing between $40 million and $50 million. As shown on Slide 8, on a run rate basis post the term loan payout, we expect interest expense on a DK stand-alone basis to be around $10 million.

With that, we will now open the call for questions.

Operator

We will now begin the question-and-answer session.[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Doug Ligue with Wolfe Research go ahead.

질의응답

Douglas George Blyth Leggate

This is John Avidan for Doug Legate. Our first question is on RINs. Can you provide any update on legacy RINs, the status of the court case and any visibility on expectations you have for end safe for the remainder of the current administration EPA?

Avigal Soreq

Yes, absolutely. John and our regards to that. So I will answer a smaller exemption in a broader context, and I will get into the cases just a little bit. So we need to remember is disproportionate economic harm. That's the essence of the law, right? And we need to make it clear, it's not a deli issue. It's between -- we have seen in that that it's big companies, small companies, with 40 refineries around the nation. It's maintaining fuel supply, maintaining jobs in rural areas, and it's very important. And obviously, we have seen very important litigation happening, the Chevron Defence, the DC Circuit, the Supreme Court, which the bottom line that you need -- you probably understand that, but you need to remember that, that's reduced the EPA discretionary going forward. So that's something that is very, very important. Around the question a bit more specific of the cases we have, what the slants -- we need to remember -- I want to make 1 statement that everyone needs to remember that relieigibility are not discretionary. They are coming together. And we believe that we have a very, very strong case. We gave guidance about that in the past in terms of how much we believe in it. and we are very optimistic about it. And even in any calculation of our valuation this is not showing up at all. So there is a huge upside here for investors. You can see today that we are not related to the SREs that we are rewarding investors with increasing dividend by 18% and obviously do a very significant buyback Q3 and Q4. Do you want to add anything?

Unknown Analyst

Appreciate it. And then for our follow-up question here is really on use of cash. So if we look at your free cash flow for 4Q, it looks like it could be significant, and it's not even included in your deleveraging guidance. and 2027 could be significant as well. So the question is, what do you do with the cash? Is DKL restructuring even a consideration given the value gap you perceive?

Avigal Soreq

Yes. So let's start with what we are not going to do. We are not going to be not disciplined. As you can see that we stay very disciplined to our capital guidance -- we run the course, we improved our balance sheet. We increased dividend. We did a significant buyback. We are -- among our peers, actually, you can see the numbers better than I can see. We are a leading period in terms of return to investors. It's now close to 10% of our market cap, and there is a tremendous amount of value. I think that by every market Isinweare probably the cheapest refinery in the U.S. and maybe even beyond that. So we are very cheap. So what we are going to do is going to stick to what we said we're going to do. We're going to stick to a strong dividend through the cycle. -- we're going to stick to a balance sheet and the buyback, balance the approach between them. And that's the focus we have. It's very -- we are in a bipolar industry. And it's very easy to get confused on those times and make investment that doesn't make sense on a downturn. So we're going to stay disciplined, and we're going to stick to the capital allocation we have.

Robert Wright

Yes, John, I just want to add what Avigal was talking about. The transformation that this company has had in terms of what our free cash flow generating power is. And you're talking in terms of fourth quarter 2026 and 2027. But even on a mid-cycle basis, the transformation is completely different versus where we were in the past, we expect to generate $700 million to $800 million of mid-cycle free cash flow. And on a 10% free cash flow yield that is a triple-digit stock price. So as Avigal just mentioned, that we are the cheapest refining stock. Our multiple is the lowest, and we are not going to be holding excess cash in our balance sheet and our capital allocation strategies to pretty straightforward.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Alexa Breno with Goldman Sachs. Pease go ahead.

Alexa Petrick

We'd like to just dig a little deeper on the last question around capital allocation and free cash flow. Can you just talk a little bit -- the buybacks this quarter were notable as well as the commentary for 4Q as we think about 27 balance sheet in a very strong place, SRE RIN monetization, any color on how we can think about that buyback number on a run rate basis in 27 or what the approach is there?

Avigal Soreq

Yes. First of all, Alex, thank you so much for joining our call. And as I said, we're going to stay disciplined, and we are not going to do something that's going to regret on a bad cycle. That's my commitment to you on the rest of the market. Obviously, that's the first time this quarter that we are giving guidance for buyback going forward. I think the market needs to see it as a positive change. Obviously, 2027 is still ahead of us. We are still putting all our ducks in a row. So you need to stay tuned for that. But as Mohit just said, a very important comment. We don't have any strategy to hold any excess cash on our balance sheet just for having the cash. We want to reward investors. We want to make sure that we have a strong balance sheet. -- and we have a very good buyback program among our peers, and we are very proud of that. Mohit, do you want to chime in?

Mohit Bhardwaj

Yes. Alex, from a balance sheet standpoint, as we have highlighted in our materials, we have done most of our work, very little debt, if any, left on our balance sheet, apart from the convert. And our interest expense on a go-forward basis on a DK stand-alone, which is going to be sub $10 million on the quarterly run rate. That is around $10 million of interest expense on a go-forward basis. So a lot of the stuff that we have, we will be rewarding our shareholders. That is the commitment that we have had and we don't want to hold any excess cash on our balance sheet. But as you said, 2027, we still have to see how the year plays out, and we'll be rewarding our shareholders. That's the commitment that we have given in the past.

Alexa Petrick

Appreciate the color. And then just a follow-up, captures have improved -- when we just look at that improvement, can you walk us through how much you would attribute to structural changes you've made in the system? And then how much has that been a function of some of the macro backdrop?

Avigal Soreq

Yes. So I'm so happy that you asked that question. That's a very important aspect in our structural change that we did in the company. And I would -- the first reason for that is obviously European enterprise optimization plan. And you've seen that Alexa that our EOP is a lifestyle is someone that everyone in this company is taking pride of someone that everyone in this company wants to be -- to excel -- and there is no limit to our imagination around it and how far we can take it. We are very happy about the progress we have done. We have more than 90 projects we are running around it. We are working on that on a daily, weekly basis. And I'm very proud. There is a small project, a big project and everyone is taking part of that. I think we raised the EOP target of a free cash flow basis mid-cycle like 6x 7 times, sorry. Now it's at least $250 million. That's an extraordinary achievement. And I'm proud, it's not me. It's the organization that I'm proud of and every 1 of our employees that take part that's important initiative. I just want to say to take the opportunity, thank you for all of you because Stefan and alopecia together with UOP is a very key foundation of this company and something that we really our employees are leading, and we're really excelling in. So that's the essence of it.

Mohit Bhardwaj

Yes. Alex, that's the structural change is why we have so much confidence in our mid-cycle free cash flow. And that's why we want to talk about that.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Matthew Blair with TPH Research ahead.

Matthew Blair

Vegan Robert, congrats on the strong results. Maybe that's a good place to start. Your marketing and supply profitability took a big step up overall in the third quarter, very strong on an absolute basis. Could you talk about the moving parts in the third quarter to push that up? And what are you seeing so far in the fourth quarter?

Avigal Soreq

Yes. We -- Matt, first of all, thank you for joining the call. We really appreciate you. We usually don't give guidance on DKTS because there is a lot of market dynamics into that. But I'll give you something. Some of the factual change that we have seen through ERP are going into DKT.that's the reason that over time, when you canceling the noise, you see an elevated number over there. Ismail and his team are leading a very good tight organization a very focused, very value chain optimization towards the value chain, and I'm very proud of the progress they are doing. And they are not standing still every day. I hear more ideas, more project more excitement around that. So while I'm not going to give you what you want in terms of guidance for DTS, I'm telling you that I'm very happy, and we see a structural progress around that.

Mohit Bhardwaj

Matthew, as Avigal just mentioned, and I think Robert had it in his script that we had supply and marketing contributed around $37 million for the quarter. A lot of the contribution, as Robert mentioned, came from wholesale wholesale is where our focus has been, as we have said in previous calls. And here we are very excited about the progress that we are making in that segment. There is some still market volatility in the segment. That's why we don't really provide any guidance. but we are very happy with the way the things are proceeding as far as applied marketing and what we call our DKTS line item is.

Matthew Blair

Sounds good. And then -- in the third quarter, you recorded an SRE benefit, it looks like $335 million when RINs were above $3 a gallon Slide 17 implies that full SREs should be worth about $760 million $1.50 RIN prices, so at $2, let's just around that to go $1 billion or so. So I guess, could you just help us understand why the F30 benefit wasn't larger in the third quarter? And ultimately, would you agree to that $2 a gallon economic benefit to full should be worth around $1 billion or so. Yes, absolutely.

Avigal Soreq

So Robert will give you the highlight of the accounting reconciliation of the -- but I'm very happy about the progress we have done around that. That's a good opportunity to thank wistifor the strong relationship we have in D.C. across DC and how important it is and how important that everyone understand that we, as a nation, we are lacking refineries. And the first objective here is to make sure that we are maintaining the 1 we have especially in the rural area that the fuel supply is so important, especially around the area that we are working in other 40 refineries in the nation. And that's something that it's in the essence of the law, and we are committed to keep working towards and to make sure that we have good jobs to our employees and supplying those communities. Robert, why don't you take it for me?

Robert Wright

Yes, sure. Thanks, Aga. Yes, I think, Matt, if you look at it based on current RIN prices and the small refinery exemptions that we were granted, we will recognize a total accounting benefit of around $750 million to $800 million, and this is really tied to 3 main things. First, as outlined in this morning's release, as you note, we recognized a realized gain from SREs of $335 million.

Second, within the release, we also disclosed that we recognized an unrealized gain of approximately $274 million which represents the mark-to-market valuation increase of those were in since 2025. And then beyond those 2 disclosed items, we expect another $150 million to $200 million to come in through the next several quarters. as we apply the excess RINs against future compliance obligations. So all in to that $750 million to $800 million mark at current prices.

Operator

Your next question comes from Manav Gupta with UBS.

Manav Gupta

Guys, I -- hopefully, you won't mind. I wanted to pick your brain a little bit more on the diesel market, you have a higher leverage to diesel than many of your peers. I just wanted to understand, based on your crystal ball, what's your outlook for the diesel margins for the next 6 to 12 months?

Avigal Soreq

Yes. Thank you for that question, Manav, your questions are always great. We -- big picture, you see that we have 3 events in the world that we are seeing, the Middle East 1 the Eastern Europe and obviously, China, the China event is because you saw VLCC from the Gulf Coast to China, it's around 24 -- 25 today, maybe this morning for VL, which is like 5x more expensive versus what it used to be a year ago. So all in, we have like 5 million to 7 million barrels outside the market with tanker prices. Some of the changes that we have seen are going to be more structural. We have seen even on the lead time of the new VLCCs and it looked like 3 to 4 years, and there is a lot of booking of new VLCC in 2029, et cetera. So we might see some some lingering effect on that very important of transportation cost because of everything we see, mainly the ship-to-ship Bottom line on the diesel, you have seen the inventories are low in the U.S. It's probably across the globe. And it's something that's going to take a second to fix. We've seen the economy so far the Main Street is doing pretty well. You see the job number this morning and the GDP is growing -- so that's -- all of that requires diesel and a lot of diesel. We are up to the winter. So that's another tailwind for diesel prices. It's more to come, but I don't see other than those 3 events that I don't have a crystal ball, something materially change in the outlook of diesel.

Mohit Bhardwaj

Yes. Manav, I'll add a few more things to this. So obviously, as you rightly pointed out, we have 1 of the highest jet and distillate yield across our peers. So it's something very important for us. And equally important for us to make sure that the communities that we serve like in Arkansas and the airports that we serve from a jet fuel standpoint and from a diesel standpoint, they are satisfied as well. As far as the cracks are concerned, as Avigal talked about, the freight rates are going to put a floor on overall crack, including the displayed crack, which is holding the entire crack together. And the second point to understand is to meet the European grade diesel, you also have to blend some jet fuel from -- in the exports that happened out of the U.S. is going to create some shortening for jet fuel as well.

And as a result, people like us, we have to make sure that our total liquid volume yield is sufficient so that we can supply locally as well as globally. So overall, we still are extremely positive about the outlook for distillate and jet cracks. Perfect. My quick follow-up here is, as you now point out like your capture rates and thank you for that -- the 3 of the 4 refineries are mid-60 to approaching 70 million and probably there's further scope of improvement. Oreo is somewhere still in the low 50s. And I'm trying to understand what are the next steps to get this first towards mid-50s and then hopefully towards so if you could talk a little bit about that.

Avigal Soreq

Yes, absolutely. So we have disclosed in the past that we have improved Eldorado $2 last year. And as part of ERP, you remember, we spoke about a few times that El Dorado did a jet and other initiatives that improved that by around $2. You have seen those numbers in Eldorado improving. I think there is even a slide that Mohit provided you that showed the capture rate is going up. And down the road, we see additional improvement in Eldorado. In many areas, we are obviously going to disclose it in the future. But the the supply marketing are working extremely hard to make sure that every barrel and every garden lens where it need to land with the right quality and with the right tight operation that we have seen. And or other, as you can see very easily is improve the capture rate significantly, and we see another outlook to improve it even more by 1 or even more down the road. So stay tuned. You will hear more about it.

Mohit Bhardwaj

Yes. As aerator Yes, Manav, just to add to what Erika said, $30 million is what we have highlighted today and dollar per barrel improvement is like a big answer, a very strong team at El Dorado, and I think we are very excited to capture this improvement as well.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jason Gabelman with TD Cowen.

Jason Gabelman

I want to go back, absolutely. I wanted to go back to the small refinery exemptions. -- if I could, and I appreciate the disclosure on the $425 million that you're going to monetize in 4Q, -- but it's still not really clear what the current run length is that you have. And I think there's a fear that maybe you're selling these RINs now but are still going to have a short that you're hoping will be covered by future SREs. And your peers have been very straightforward that they are current on their RINs I think it would be helpful to the market and clear a lot of confusion if you could kind of provide some color as to what your actual RIN length is after you've received these SREs.

Avigal Soreq

Yes, absolutely. So Jason, just to make it very clear, our strategy all along is stay in compliance. We stay in compliance all along -- and that's going to be the strategy going forward. Obviously, we are managing our proactively managing the position. We are happy about the way we manage the position -- we have a clear view about the RIN market, and I will let Mohit finish the answer.

Mohit Bhardwaj

Yes. Thanks, Avigal. So Jason, thank you for the question. And you and I have talked about this at length multiple times. So if you look at from a cash proceeds standpoint, first, let's just clear that part out. So $50 million or so were included in the third quarter and $425 million will be coming in the fourth quarter. Now based upon all of our SRE grants, what we have to do is to manage a few things. So first is the cash need for the business. So we just talked about -- you've actually not talked about on the call, but you highlighted that we will be taking out our term loan -- so part of the proceeds will go for that. Then we also have to manage our overall compliance. So part of the RINs will be used for that. And then we also have to think about how the company is doing from a flat price risk standpoint for the rents and also the overall tax situations. Based upon that, we decide what rents to monetize and how many of them we need to keep for compliance. And that is going to be our strategy as Avigal focused on, that we always want to stay in compliance, and that is also going to be our strategy on a go-forward basis.

Jason Gabelman

Okay. So if I'm hearing you correctly, you're compliant but not necessarily current? And then also the $425 million is going to be after taxes?

Avigal Soreq

Yes. I think, Jason, we can take that offline. But for us, as we have highlighted multiple times that we don't disclose our RIN buying strategy, but we also want to make sure that we always stay in compliance with our obligations. So that is our strategy, and that will continue on a go-forward basis.

Jason Gabelman

Okay. I'll leave that there. My follow-up is just there was some reporting out there that Delek was receiving Defense Production Act proceeds to expand refining capacity. So just wondering if you could touch on that point at all if you're receiving those proceeds and if you're pursuing projects to expand your capacity.

Avigal Soreq

Yes, absolutely. So we are still talking to the administration, but to make it very, very clear, Tyler is going to stay at 75,000 barrels a day of crude -- there is no material CapEx that we need to disclose. And we are talking about shifting between different kind of products. And that's it. There is not much more to it. We're obviously very thankful for the administration for helping who are refineries in the U.S., we are obviously very thankful of the administration of understanding that small refit jobs in those areas are extremely important, and the affordability is extremely important. But from a materiality standpoint, it doesn't fit our sold at all.

Matthew Blair

Great.

Jason Gabelman

Thanks for the time -- your next question comes from the line of Joe Leach with Morgan Stanley. Joe SP207910630 Team, -- so to go back to I want to go back to the refining macro a bit. So you talked about the diesel cracks, but could you also just give us an update on the latest dynamics that you're seeing in Group II from both a demand perspective, margin, crude cost standpoint as well?

Avigal Soreq

Yes. So Group 3, as we look at it yesterday, working to our expectation, it's actually doing slightly better versus typical November. The high tax spread is obviously part of that equation, and we see that as a positive for us. So that's also going well to where we are -- so that's on the tactical side, on the more strategic side, we obviously see the West and Gateway project coming down the road. -- which will support a tremendously Group II. So that's very helpful for our position. We see that line as a very good news for Delek because it's going to clear most of the group and we are not going to pay for the movement of those barrels. So it's 2 wins for us. So on the tactical side, the group is working well at these 10 seconds. And on the strategic side, we've seen more and more reels from the group going west to compensate close off refineries in the West Coast. So both tactically and strategically, we're in a good spot.

Mohit Bhardwaj

Yes. And just to add, Joe, we also have the Magellan One O pipeline taking additional battles into Denver. And we have seen some of those wells start to move, and there's scope for that part to expand as well. and we have seen group clearing out very well. And as Avigal mentioned, we are pleasantly surprised by the lack of seasonality that we have seen in the past.

Unknown Analyst

Great. That's helpful. And then I just wanted to go back to the balance sheet, if I could. So from a capital structure standpoint, after the term loan is paid off, the only debt left, I think will be the converts. How do you think about the optimal capital structure for Delek. Is it a net cash position? And then you also mentioned no desire to hold excess cash on the balance sheet. Could you just remind us what the right level of cash balance is for the company to hold.

Avigal Soreq

Yes, absolutely. So let's start with the bottom line, right? The $10 million DK solar interest rate in an increased interest environment is extraordinary achievement and we are very happy about where we are. And as we said all along, our strategy is to reward investors by increasing the buyback that we did today from $50 million to $100 and by doing dividend through the cycle that we are very confident on that, right? What got us here is a few things. One of them and the most important on the factor, I think, is the enterprise optimization plan. that we are very proud, and you can see the capture rate improving. So that's where we are. As we said, we didn't give a clear cash number on -- that we're going to hold on the balance sheet. But have no desire to hold any excess cash, and we want to make sure that we are the cheapest -- we've seen a few transactions lately in our space -- and our best acquisition is ourselves because we are the cheapest refinery in the U.S., and that's what we did this quarter, and we maintained very disciplined to our capital allocation strategy, and I will leave it to that. Great. Thanks. That's helpful. Appreciate it. As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, start raise your hand.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of John Royall with Piper Sandler go ahead.

John Royall

So my first question is on the sum of the parts unlock. You're currently at 58%, I think DKL ownership. That's been coming down pretty steadily. Can you talk about your path to hitting below 50% at this point. Do you have a time frame in mind for when you may get there?

Avigal Soreq

Yes. First of all, I'm surprised that, that question hit the conference so late. So thank you for bringing the top. I'm really proud of what we did this quarter. I'm very proud of the primary that Robert and Mark led very nice, and I'm very happy about that. But let's take a step back and look at the progress we have done, right? We've done 2 very good acquisitions on the right timing before water became the in the spotlight. We have done another. We built another gas plant -- we said -- I said today on the call, and I'm saying that again, that we might need to expand the capacity that we have in Libi even more to serve our producers and our customers -- and we actually develop a very clear clean strategy of providing crude, gas and water in the most prolific area of the Permian Basin, and that strategy working very well for us. You can see if you are looking on each 1 of our assets and you are extremely smart and do the math, and you can see that our intrinsic value Jon is the number it needs to have 9 handle on the DKL unit. We are not there just yet, but with 1 of the best unit in the space in terms of return and growth, I think it's actually the best one, but let's call it 1 of the best ones. We are very happy about our company. We are very happy about the trajectory. Mark and his leadership team in DKL are doing a very good job, and we make it make it bigger. And it's going to be on fourth way, 1 for the right value. It's always -- we are always open to sell it for the right value, we are hoping to sell assets like we have done in the past, we did a bolt-on acquisition that was very good for us. And we all -- we did also tax efficient buyback between DK and DKL. As you can see, we're steadily smartly, not rashly, we didn't reduce our interest from 79 to 58, and stay tuned, more to come. Okay.

John Royall

And then my follow-up is just on turnarounds. I know you're done with your 26 program at this point. I'm not sure if you're going to answer this, but do you have any early view on what 2017 could look like from a turnaround perspective.

Avigal Soreq

Yes. So we are still putting our ducks in a row for 2017. Usually, our cycle is to give guidance about that in the next earnings call, and we'll stick to our cadence.

Operator

We have reached the end of our Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to Avigal Surek, CEO, for closing remarks. Thank you.

Avigal Soreq

Thank you for my colleagues and Stable and the management team. I want to thank our Board of Directors in trusting us and mostly and to our employees that make this company as good as we all can. Thank you for our investor to sticking to our story and believing in us, and we'll talk again next quarter. Thank you. This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.