퍼미안 리소시스(PR) 2026년 3분기 실적 발표 콘퍼런스콜: 사상 최대 잉여현금흐름, 원유 가이던스 상향

퍼미안 리소시스(Permian Resources, NYSE: PR)는 생산량 증가, 천연가스 실현가격 개선, 사상 최저 수준의 통제 가능 현금 원가에 힘입어 전 분기 대비 유가 하락을 상쇄하며 2026년 3분기 주당 0.98달러라는 사상 최대 잉여현금흐름을 기록했다고 발표했다. 경영진은 또한 연간 원유 생산량 가이던스를 상향 조정하고 약 11억 5,000만 달러 규모의 인수 내역을 구체적으로 공개했다.

핵심 내용

• 3분기 원유 생산량은 일평균 20만 8,000배럴로 2분기 대비 일평균 약 1만 배럴 증가했다. 이 중 일평균 8,000배럴 이상이 유기적 성장에서 비롯되었으며, 나머지는 워드 카운티(Ward County) 인수가 기여했다.
• 총생산량은 일평균 45만 8,000Boe를 기록한 반면, 통제 가능 현금 원가는 전 분기 대비 6% 감소해 회사 사상 최저치인 Boe당 7.05달러로 낮아졌다.
• 주당 잉여현금흐름은 사상 최고치인 0.98달러에 달했다. 유가 하락에도 불구하고 회사는 2분기보다 약 1억 달러 더 많은 잉여현금흐름을 창출했다.
• 경영진은 2026년 원유 생산량 중간값을 일평균 20만 2,000배럴로 상향 조정했으며, 이는 전년 대비 약 11% 증가이자 지난 2월 가이던스 대비 7% 상향된 수치다.
• 퍼미안 리소시스는 총 약 11억 5,000만 달러 규모의 거래 약 175건을 완료해 순에이커 2만 4,000에이커, 순로열티 9,000에이커, 일평균 1만 3,000Boe의 생산량 및 200개 이상의 순시추 위치를 추가 확보했다.
• 경영진은 업데이트된 실제 원자재 가격을 조정한 후, 2026년 연간 잉여현금흐름이 당초 계획보다 약 3억 달러(주당 0.35달러) 웃돌 것으로 예상하고 있다.

주요 재무 데이터

사업 및 운영 실적

생산량 증가는 기존 유정 및 신규 유정의 견조한 실적, 추가적인 사업 참여 지분, 유정 개수 작업 확대 및 작업 주기 단축을 반영한 결과다. 경영진은 가동 중단 시간을 사상 최저 수준으로 낮추었으며 기존 광구 단위에서 100건 이상의 추가 사업 참여 지분 인수를 완료했다고 밝혔다.

시추 및 완결 효율성도 향상되었다. 퍼미안 리소시스는 3분기 중 일평균 2,700피트 이상이라는 회사 신기록을 포함해 회사 역사상 가장 빠른 속도로 시추된 10개 유정 중 5개를 시추했다. 더 길어진 수평 시추 구간, 용수 재활용, 작업 주기 단축 덕분에 디젤 및 철강 인플레이션을 상쇄하고 피트당 시추 및 완결 비용을 전년 동기 대비 낮출 수 있었다.

인공채유 최적화 또한 비용 절감과 가동률 상승에 기여했다. 회사가 보유한 약 600개의 전기잠수펌프 전체가 자산 전반에 운영 솔루션을 공유하는 AI 엔진 기반 실시간 모니터링 애플리케이션에 연결되어 있다. 경영진은 이 시스템을 가스 리프트 및 로드 펌프로 확대 적용하기 위해 노력하고 있다.

천연가스 채산성은 크게 개선되었다. 2분기 와하 허브 가격이 극심한 마이너스를 기록하는 동안 가스 오일비가 높은 유정의 생산을 제한했던 회사는 가격이 회복되자 생산을 재개했다. 3분기 동안 생산량의 약 80%가 걸프만 연안 및 댈러스-포트워스 시장 가격을 기준으로 책정되었으며, 현재 일평균 600MMcf 이상이 와하 허브 하류(다운스트림)에서 판매되고 있다.

인수 및 포트폴리오 개발

발표된 약 11억 5,000만 달러 규모의 인수에는 10억 달러를 소폭 상회하는 릿지 러너 리소시스(Ridge Runner Resources) 인수와 1억 2,000만 달러 규모의 볼트온 및 소규모 거래가 포함되었다. 릿지 러너 인수는 10월 30일에 완료되었으며, 기타 거래는 3분기 중에 완료되었다.

경영진은 확인개발생산 자산에 5억 달러의 가치를 배정한 후 순임차 에이커당 2만 2,000달러, 순로열티 에이커당 1만 4,000달러, 순 1만 피트 시추 위치당 300만 달러의 인수 지표를 산출했다.

경영진은 유가 배럴당 70달러, 천연가스 Mcf당 2달러를 가정했을 때 릿지 러너 인수를 통해 2년, 5년, 10년 기간에 걸쳐 주당 잉여현금흐름이 최소 5% 증대될 것으로 예상하고 있다. 이번 거래에는 2027년과 2028년의 잠재적 유가 상승과 연계된 조건부 지급금도 포함되었다.

인수한 로열티 지분은 릿지 러너의 운영 광구와 대부분 중복된다. 경영진은 순수익 지분율 상승을 통해 추가적인 개발 지출 없이도 유정 수익률을 높이고, 투자 회수 기간을 단축하며, 추가적인 현금흐름을 창출할 수 있을 것이라고 밝혔다.

경영진 가이던스

연초 대비 원유 가이던스 상향분의 약 85%는 기존 자체 사업의 개선에서 비롯되었다. 경영진은 이러한 증가가 인수가 아닌 유정 실적 호조, 사업 참여 지분율 상승, 추가적인 유정 개수 작업에 주로 기인한다고 설명했다.

회사는 2027년 성장 계획을 확정하지 않았다. 경영진은 원자재 가격과 유전 서비스 비용을 분기별로 평가하고, 가능한 경우 기존 시추 리그 및 완결 장비 규모 내에서 성장을 추진할 방침이라고 밝혔다.

다운스트림 천연가스 판매량은 2027년 2분기에 일평균 700MMcf를 상회할 것으로 예상된다. 경영진은 또한 확정 운송 용량이 2028년에 일평균 약 800MMcf에 달할 것이라고 덧붙였다.

리스크 및 주시 사항

• 경영진은 기상 여건과 장비 고장률이 이례적으로 우호적이었던 만큼, 3분기의 사상 최저 비용 수준이 지속 가능한 새로운 정상 수준(normalized run rate)을 나타내는 것은 아닐 수 있다고 경고했다.
• 디젤, 철강 및 케이싱 가격 상승은 여전히 비용 부담 요인이다. 회사는 이러한 압력을 완화하기 위해 혼합연료 장비, 전동식 수압파쇄 장비 도입 및 케이싱 조기 구매를 검토하고 있다.
• 원자재 가격 변동성은 생산량 증가 및 자본 배분 결정에 변화를 줄 수 있다. 경영진은 사업 활동을 신속하게 조정할 수 있는 역량을 강조했다.
• 계면활성제 처리는 상이한 결과를 낳았다. 일부 유정은 대조군 대비 30%~40% 이상의 생산량 증대를 나타냈으나, 다른 유정에서는 개선이 전혀 없거나 다소 부진한 성과를 보였다.
• 퍼미안 리소시스는 2027년에 부분적인 현금 법인세 납부 상태를 거쳐 2028년에는 현금 법인세 전액 납부 기업이 될 것으로 예상하고 있다.

애널리스트 질의응답 핵심 내용

경영진은 2026년 중 추가 시추 및 현장 프로젝트의 투자 회수 기간이 12개월을 크게 밑돌았다고 밝혔다. 회사에 따르면 약 1억 5,000만 달러의 추가 자본 지출을 통해 같은 해 약 3억 달러의 추가 잉여현금흐름을 창출하는 데 기여했다.

퍼미안 리소시스는 퍼미안 분지, 특히 델라웨어 분지에 계속 집중할 계획이다. 경영진은 상당한 볼트온 기회가 남아 있다고 보면서도 대규모 거래가 임박한 것은 아니라고 선을 그었다. 이어 향후 수년간 릿지 러너, 워드 카운티 및 이전 아파치(Apache) 거래와 유사한 인수가 계속 가능할 것으로 내다봤다.

주주 환원과 관련해 경영진은 투자적격 등급과 자본 접근성에 힘입어 레버리지 비율이 0.5배 미만을 기록하고 있으며 하락 추세라고 밝혔다. 대차대조표가 강화됨에 따라 회사는 인수, 자사주 매입 및 추가 배당 확대를 재검토할 것으로 예상된다. 경영진은 자사주 매입이 점점 더 매력적으로 변하고 있으나 경기순응적 집행은 경계해야 한다고 당부했다.

회사의 기존 유정 자연감퇴율은 원유 기준 30%대 후반, Boe 기준 30%대 중반을 유지하고 있다. 유정 개수 기회는 새로 인수한 자산과 가스 리프트의 ESP 전환, 계면활성제 처리, 산 처리 등 선제적 프로젝트를 통해 확대되었다.

경영진은 계면활성제 도입 현황을 아직 '2회' 단계에 불과하다고 설명했다. 총지출액 대비 1년 미만의 투자 회수 기간을 달성했음에도 불구하고, 회사는 이러한 결과가 궁극적 회수율(EUR)의 증가를 의미하는지 아니면 단순한 조기 생산 가속화에 불과한지 여전히 평가 중이다.

실적 발표 콘퍼런스콜 전문

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전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to Permian Resources' conference call to discuss its third quarter 2026 earnings. Today's call is being recorded. A replay of the call will be available by visiting the company's website at www.permianres.com. At this time, I will turn the call over to Hays Mabry, Permian Resources' Vice President of Investor Relations, for some opening remarks. Please go ahead.

Hays Mabry

Thanks, [ Kristen ], and thank you all for joining us. On the call today are Will Hickey and James Walter, our Chief Executive Officers; and Guy Oliphint, our Chief Financial Officer. Many of the comments during this call are forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could affect our actual results and are discussed in more detail in our filings with the SEC.

We may also refer to non-GAAP financial measures. For any non-GAAP measure we use, a reconciliation to the nearest corresponding GAAP measure can be found in our earnings release or presentation. With that, I will turn the call over to Will Hickey, Co-CEO.

William Hickey

Thanks, Hays. We are extremely excited to discuss our third quarter results this morning. Q3 was an outstanding quarter for PR. We grew production across all 3 streams in response to stronger commodity prices and generated record free cash flow of $0.98 per share despite lower oil prices compared to Q2. More importantly, the same execution that drove our strong quarterly results has allowed us to meaningfully improve our full year outlook. We've worked hard to optimize nearly every aspect of our business and now expect to generate approximately $300 million of incremental free cash flow compared to our original plan normalized for commodity prices.

We've also continued executing on our decade-long acquisition strategy, announcing $1.15 billion of highly attractive acquisitions that add significantly high-return inventory to our portfolio. Overall, I think this quarter demonstrates that our business model is working. We have the right team, assets and strategy in place to continue growing free cash flow per share over the long term regardless of the commodity cycles.

Starting with our operating results on Slide 3. Oil production averaged 208,000 barrels per day and total production averaged 458,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. We grew oil production by approximately 10,000 barrels per day compared to Q2, including over 8,000 barrels per day of organic growth. This was driven by our team's relentless focus on improving every aspect of the business. We increased workover activity to reduce downtime to the lowest level in PR history, closed over 100 acquisitions of incremental working interest in our existing units and continued reducing cycle times to bring new wells online faster. The remaining 2,000 barrels per day of growth came from our Ward County bolt-on acquisition. I'd note this is not growth for growth's sake. This is responding to market conditions to increase near-term free cash flow for our shareholders.

Importantly, we were able to accelerate production while continuing to drive down costs. Our team has been optimizing power generation and compression equipment, deploying AI-powered artificial lift monitoring to improve run time and executing a highly successful workover program. Combined with higher production, these efforts reduced controllable cash costs by 6% quarter-over-quarter to $7.05 per Boe, the lowest level in PR history. LOE declined to $5.11 per Boe and cash G&A declined to $0.73 per Boe.

We spent $518 million of cash CapEx during the quarter, consistent with Q2. Our drilling and completion teams continue to improve execution through longer laterals, expanded water recycling and reduced cycle times. In fact, we drilled 5 of the 10 fastest wells in PR history during Q3, including our fastest well ever, which averaged more than 2,700 feet per day. These efficiency gains are helping offset inflation in diesel and steel while supporting lower D&C cost per foot year-over-year.

Slide 4 shows the complete picture. Higher production, improved gas and NGL realizations, lower controllable cash cost per Boe and consistent CapEx drove almost $100 million of additional free cash flow compared to Q2 despite lower oil prices. We can't always overcome commodity price fluctuations quarter-over-quarter, but we do believe our team's commitment to disciplined investment in high-return rapid payback projects and premier execution capabilities can consistently improve the business and translate to long-term free cash flow growth across cycles.

Turning to natural gas. Q3 was a great example of the flexibility we discussed on our last call. In Q2, we curtailed high GOR wells when Waha prices were deeply negative. As prices improved, we brought those wells back online, increasing natural gas production by 42% quarter-over-quarter to approximately 787 million cubic feet per day. As you can see on Slide 5, our unhedged realized gas price improved by $2.48 per Mcf compared to Q2. We also began delivering gas through Hugh Brinson during the quarter, bringing the percentage of our volumes priced at Gulf Coast and DFW markets to approximately 80%.

The combination of higher volumes and better realizations drove a significant improvement in our natural gas revenue, going from negative $90 million in Q2 to over positive $50 million in Q3, a $140 million improvement before hedges. Including the benefit of our hedges, we realized $1.12 per Mcf during the quarter. We spent a lot of time over the last year positioning our gas portfolio to access better markets, and we're now starting to see the benefits of that work. Today, we're selling over 600 million cubic feet per day downstream of Waha, which will increase to over 700 million cubic feet per day in Q2 of '27. This gives us access to markets closer to the end users and growing demand while maintaining flexibility across delivery points.

Looking forward, we believe natural gas represents a meaningful opportunity for additional free cash flow generation. We've already seen the impact of better realizations in Q3. And as you can see on Slide 5, we have line of sight to further natural gas revenue growth in '27. With growing LNG and power demand, we are well positioned to benefit from the potentially higher downstream prices over time.

To wrap it all up, I think what our team accomplished so far this year is pretty remarkable. We responded quickly to higher commodity prices, finding ways to bring additional production online while continuing to drive down cost. To put that in perspective, we're on track to grow oil production by 11% this year while reducing every component of our cost structure on a year-over-year basis. I think that's a great testament to the quality of the people and the relentless focus on improving the business every day, and I want to thank them for all their hard work. With that, I'll turn it over to James to discuss our recent acquisitions and updated outlook.

James Walter

Thanks, Will. Since our last earnings call, we've continued to execute on the same acquisition strategy we followed for years, buy high-quality assets where our existing operations, subsurface knowledge and cost structure allow us to generate outsized full cycle returns at mid-cycle prices. In the third quarter, we completed approximately 175 transactions to add an additional 24,000 net acres, 9,000 net royalty acres and 13,000 Boe per day of production. Combined, these acquisitions will add over 200 net locations and an 80% 8/8ths NRI that should immediately compete for capital within the Permian Resources portfolio.

Combined upfront consideration was approximately $1.15 billion. The transaction included Ridge Runner Resources for just over $1 billion and another $120 million of bolt-ons and smaller ground game transactions. After backing out the value of PDP at $500 million, that works out to $22,000 per net leasehold acre, $14,000 per net royalty acre and $3 million per net 10,000-foot location, which is consistent with our historical acquisition metrics. We closed Ridge Runner on October 30, and the rest of the transactions closed during Q3.

Slide 7 provides a bit more color on our long-standing approach to M&A and how the Ridge Runner deal fits with that strategy. When we are looking at potential transactions, we want to buy assets that make our existing business better and can generate outsized returns for our investors. That means that the asset quality has to be extremely high and the acquired locations need to compete for capital within our existing portfolio from day 1. Our existing footprint in the Delaware Basin allows us to enhance returns by bringing our information, cost and execution advantages to bear. And we think the Ridge Runner acquisition is another great example of the differentiated way we approach M&A.

To start, we've known Ridge Runner's CEO, Scott Germann, for over 10 years. We all live in Midland, and in fact, one of the first deals we looked at way back in 2016 was actually being sold by Scott when he was at BC Operating. We didn't get that deal back in 2016, but has stayed in touch and built a great friendship over the years. So naturally, we have followed what the Ridge Runner team has put together with their current iteration and entered into discussions with them in late spring when they initially marketed their business. But for a lot of reasons, it didn't make sense for us at the time, asset mix, commodity pricing and ultimately price expectations.

After it did not transact, we entered into a bilateral dialogue a few months later to get to work with the Ridge Runner team to see if we could find a transaction that made sense for both parties as a true win-win. And all that dialogue paid off. Ultimately, we struck a deal to include Ridge Runner's royalty company that wasn't included in the initial marketing process while excluding the Woodford and Northwest Shelf assets that weren't a good fit for PR. The final piece of the deal is that the sellers wanted to be paid for the potential upside in oil prices and PR was stubborn in our focus on making sure we could underwrite strong full cycle returns at mid-cycle prices.

At the time, full year 2027 oil strip was hovering around $72 per barrel. To bridge that gap, we added the contingent payment that allowed us both to participate in the upside if commodity prices outperformed in 2027 and 2028. So when we combine great assets with the purchase price and structure we worked hard to get right, we did an acquisition that generates attractive full cycle returns at mid-cycle prices. Specifically, at $70 per barrel and $2 per Mcf, we expect at least 5% free cash flow per share accretion over 2, 5 and 10 years. We are confident we can continue to execute on this disciplined acquisition strategy and drive shareholder value for years to come.

Turning to Slide 8 on guidance. We are increasing our full year oil production midpoint to 202,000 barrels per day, which represents approximately 11% growth over last year and a 7% increase from the guidance we provided in February. Approximately 85% of the year-to-date increase in oil guidance comes from stand-alone improvements. Strong base and new well performance, higher working interest and increased workover activity have been the primary drivers. Ward County and Ridge Runner add to that growth, but the largest contribution has come from improving the business we already own.

We are updating our full year cash CapEx midpoint to $2.025 billion. Approximately $20 million of the increase is associated with Ridge Runner, with the remainder primarily driven by additional working interest acquired through the ground game and increased workover activity. These are investments that add production and cash flow to the business in the very near term. For the fourth quarter, we expect oil production of more than 210,000 barrels per day, including approximately 4,000 barrels per day from Ridge Runner with cash CapEx spending similar to what we did in Q3.

To conclude, on Slide 9, we wanted to take a step back and walk through the things we've done this year to improve upon our original plan laid out for investors back in February. When oil prices rose earlier this year, we reacted quickly and took steps to increase production by investing in the shorter cycle projects in our portfolio while maintaining a disciplined focus on cost reduction. We drilled higher working interest wells as a result of our ground game, did more workovers to improve our base production and accelerated activity where it made sense, all while keeping activity levels flat from the start of the year and delivering the lowest cash cost in company history.

This allowed us to spend more capital and generate more production revenue and ultimately cash flow for our investors this year. As a result, full year 2026 free cash flow will be approximately $300 million or $0.35 per share higher than our original plan would have achieved when adjusted for the latest actual pricing. Our goal remains constant to grow free cash flow per share and maximize long-term equity value for shareholders. This quarter shows how we do that through our existing operations, our marketing portfolio and disciplined acquisitions. Thank you for joining us today. With that, we'll turn it back to the operator for Q&A.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Neal Dingmann with William Blair.

질의응답

Neal Dingmann

Well, my first question is likely for you. Could you speak to the further rapid payback initiatives you all continue to see? I mean, you've certainly done a great job with incremental low-cost growth in the recent high-price oil environment. I'm just wondering if you can continue at this, what I'd call same notable pace.

William Hickey

Yes. I mean, look, I'd say that's what's one of the best thing about the PR business, is that the widget that we produce, especially on the new wells we drill is some of the kind of the highest return and fastest payback wells, I think, across the industry. That is a -- we're in the right spot in the Delaware Basin. And with our cost structure, we can generate a lot of cash from the wells we drill. We've talked about historically kind of as we're looking at, payback is an important thing that we look at when we think about, is it a time to grow or kind of how do we want to allocate capital.

And if you think -- in normal times, you may see paybacks on picking up an incremental rig in, call it, the 12- to 18-month range. In bad times, it may slip longer than 18 months and in good times, it's shorter. And I think this year, it is well inside of 12 months. I mean you've seen it this year, we kind of increased capital spend by, call it, $150 million-ish, and we've generated an incremental $300 million of free cash flow in the same year we did it. So these are some of the shortest cycle paybacks we've got. That's been increased net wells through incremental working interest as well as the production team finding capital projects in the field that have been crazy quick paybacks. I think turning on wells that have been offline for a while, I think small little refrac jobs or surfactant jobs or other artificial lift optimization.

Neal Dingmann

No, very notable. Nice job on those. And then my second question, James, maybe for you just on M&A. You talked about this already. Looking at it, just kind of looking at the map over the last couple of years, you've done a great job blocking up a lot of your core areas in Eddy, Lea, Reeves, et cetera. Sort of 2 questions here. Is there still additional white space to fill? And secondly, would you all consider adding assets beyond, I'd call these core areas?

James Walter

I answer the second question first. I mean [ we're ] -- the name is Permian Resources. I think you can rest assured we'll stay in the Permian Basin. And we see so many opportunities in the core of the Delaware. I don't see a reason in the near term, probably in the midterm either that we'd be looking in kind of what we'd call different areas. Like we do think to answer your first question, there's a ton of white space. Like I'd say our momentum on the small ball stuff, the ground game is as good as it's ever been.

That kind of stuff quarter-over-quarter has been really good for Permian Resources. I think those are the best -- some of the highest returning most near-term acquisitions that we do. And I think the bigger stuff looking out the next couple of years, I think we feel really good about. I think there's a good pipeline of businesses to buy. I'd say there's nothing imminent, nothing near term for us. But over the next year or 2 or 3, I think we'll continue to find acquisitions like this Ridge Runner deal, like the Ward County acquisition we did earlier this year or the Apache one we did last year.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Kevin MacCurdy with Pickering Energy Partners.

Kevin MacCurdy

It sounds like you've been working the Ridge Runner deal for a while. I think we're all pleasantly surprised that you can continue to do those attractive bolt-ons. Can you talk a little bit about the importance of the royalty program and how much of the acreage is covered by the higher NRI and what that does to your 2027 program?

James Walter

Yes, sure. No, like I said, getting that royalty business alongside the kind of working interest assets is really important to us. I think it's safe to say the vast majority of those 9,000 acres we have on Slide 6 are kind of overlaid on the kind of pink Ridge Runner acreage we show on that same slide. So kind of exactly where you want them. And obviously, I think it's pretty simple, but it really helps enhance our returns because that's incremental barrels and incremental cash flow that you don't have to spend dollars to achieve. So I think our royalty position has been a really important part of our capital efficiency story, and we love having the opportunity to buy high NRI stuff like this.

Kevin MacCurdy

And as a clarification, how many wells can you execute on that Ridge Runner annually?

James Walter

How many wells could we? I mean...

William Hickey

A lot.

James Walter

A lot. I mean that's all pretty drill-ready stuff in existing areas that we already operate. I think for simple modeling purposes, it's probably a little less than a rig, something like that. But no, you could -- to answer your direct question, you could drill it a lot quicker than that. And I think we might. I think for us, after we buy things, we no longer think about a Ridge Runner versus Permian Resources. We think about it as the combined business and make the right capital allocation decisions from there.

Kevin MacCurdy

Appreciate that. And as a follow-up, kind of looking at 2027, in the past, you talked about higher prices and lower service costs leading to growth mode. Prices are still high, but we've seen some move in well costs. Is growth still the mindset? And can you execute that on the same rig frac count?

William Hickey

I think we're going to take it quarter-over-quarter. Obviously, we had a lot of growth into Q3. With the acquisitions, there's a little growth into Q4, if you look at what we're projecting. I think next year, we will just probably keep it close to the vest until we get there. I think you're right in that -- I mean, the strip still looks good even with the pullback this week and service costs are -- I'd say we've been able to mitigate a lot of the diesel-related inflation we've seen year-to-date. So I mean, the widget, the return profile as we sit here today still looks very attractive.

But I mean, this is a dynamic world and things are changing quickly. And so I think that there's one thing we've demonstrated that we can do really, really effectively is we can make very quick pivots in the schedule like we did this year. I mean if you think about this year, we entered on the lowest CapEx we've ever put out at $1.85 billion and basically in no growth mode. And then on sometime mid-March, we decided this is a very unique money-making environment, and we are now going to project to do over 10% year-over-year organic growth in the same year.

So I think that allows us to wait until the -- until we actually get there to see what the world looks like. But I think we'll do everything we can to do it within the existing rig and frac fleet count to continue to pick up efficiencies and grow the right way where the cost structure does not increase in spite of the growth, but we can maintain the kind of being the low-cost operator, and then we can make the decision on, is it the return environment that justifies growth or not.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of John Freeman with Raymond James.

John Freeman

You all mentioned in the release that the record low controllable cash costs were driven by the lower LOE from the optimization of the power compression projects that led to company's record run times. Can you just sort of elaborate a little bit on these power compression projects and if there -- is there still more optimization to be done across Shell's position? And could this be sort of a continued kind of tailwind into next year for you all?

William Hickey

Yes. I mean the details would be on the power side. This is just the evolution of us continuing to install more micro grids across New Mexico to lower our power costs in areas where we're not hooked up to the grid. Compression, I say compression, we have a lot of compression in the field, and it's been a big effort of the team a long time to kind of continue to have, I'd say, industry-leading run time on the compression, which helps with the Boe part of the equation and with the cost side on the maintenance.

And then really, I think this quarter, we got a big tailwind on the artificial lift side. Like we have been -- had the lowest failure rate, I think we've ever printed, which obviously reduced cost and increases run time as well as just optimization across the whole artificial lift fleet, primarily on the ESP side of just really kind of finding that sweet spot of moving the maximum amount of fluid while also keeping failure rate as low as possible.

So this is just, I'd say, a function of probably a little bit of everything went right this quarter, combined with a lot of small changes we've made over the last year kind of all coming together in a way that we were able to put out such impressive numbers. I think go forward, yes, like we are building sustained durable changes in the cost structure of the business. I'm not sure that what we printed in Q3 is necessarily the new norm. This was a uniquely good quarter from a weather and from a failure rate perspective that I'm not sure that that's the new norm, but it definitely is -- we're improving kind of where we've been historically.

John Freeman

And then on the gas takeaway topic, obviously, you've got over 700 million a day of FT out of the basin next year. Obviously, going to see some nice improvement on the realizations. We've seen some other operators recently in the basin that have added some more FT on some newly proposed pipes. Just maybe how are you all thinking about just longer term sort of the trade-off of maybe looking to add even more FT when you look to the out years versus maybe expecting some improvement in just in-basin demand and just sort of the trade-off and kind of the analysis you are going through when you kind of make that decision process on whether to add more or not?

James Walter

Yes. I mean I think we certainly think that in-basin Waha pricing should improve. That said, our goal is to sell the vast majority of our molecules further stream -- further downstream. We just think over the long term, being closer to end users for oil and gas are -- it's going to be the right long-term answer. That said, our contracts allowed us to preserve some optionality to kind of shift some sales back to Waha if that market were to change and be the favorable place for Permian Resources in the future.

I'd say with 700 million a day of firm takeaway next year growing to 800 million in 2028, we feel like our gas is pretty well covered for the near term. I think as we think out beyond that, I do think as we see or if we see continued gas growth in Permian Resources that we look to evaluate and likely kind of participate in taking out firm on some of the longer-dated pipelines. But that's something we're constantly evaluating and trying to figure out which markets make sense, which operators fit best with what we're trying to do. But yes, I think the strategy of selling further downstream, closer to end users is something that we'll continue to stick with.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Phillip Jungwirth with BMO Capital Markets.

Phillip Jungwirth

On the Permian competitor call, there was some discussion around optimal multi-zone co-development and maximizing NPV per section. I recognize it's different parts of the basin, but just curious how you characterize PR's approach to balancing DSU recovery with the returns and just how optimal do you feel you're at on the development design now, recognizing it varies by area?

William Hickey

I think just starting with just the approach, I think we take a very similar approach to the competitor you're referencing, where we are looking at the incremental or marginal returns of the -- the marginal returns of the incremental well, and kind of at some point, that bins over to a place where it no longer makes sense. And thus, you are maximizing, call it, NPV per section and really kind of the resource that we own. This has been something we've been doing for a long time. Like if you follow PR's development plan for the last, call it, since COVID, it's been very, very similar.

I do think what is uniquely different in the Delaware is we are still very much in the camp of discovering new zones every day in the Delaware. If you think about what were core zones in the Delaware Basin just 2 years ago, it didn't include what people have done across the whole basin, the Avalon and the Harkey, in the Penn Shale, in the Deeper Wolfcamp and now in the Woodford. And so I think if there's any difference between us and our competitors, I'd say that we are still very much learning every day kind of the way to most optimize NPV per section given just the changing of the benches in the resource in the Delaware, we're still in early innings. But I think from a methodology perspective, we approach it very similarly, trying to just maximize value over the resource over the long term.

James Walter

And the other really cool thing we've talked about before about the Delaware Basin is just the amount of height in the oil-producing column in the Delaware is massive, and we've got the benefit of lots of stacked pay like other basins. I think we have that's unique in the Delaware is we have a lot of barriers that kind of create frac barriers. So there are some parts of our assets that you probably do need to develop the whole top to bottom stack together.

But there's other parts where you've got 2, 3, 4 distinct tanks that don't have to be developed at the same time as the other tanks. So like Will said, like that's a real big advantage when you're discovering new zones is most of the time, the new zones that we've discovered, we found like actually don't have to be codeveloped with what we've developed historically that allows us to kind of particularly benefit from that serendipity going forward and allows us to make kind of more capital-efficient decisions as we think about our development plan without sacrificing any NPV.

Phillip Jungwirth

No, that's great. And then there's a small amount of cash tax creep this year just with the higher crude prices. Wondering how you see this playing out at the strip over the next couple of years and not that this drives A&D decision-making, but you guys don't stay static. So is the ground game just plus organic growth something that could push this out a bit further?

Guy Oliphint

Yes. I mean, the big picture, we still anticipate being full cash taxpayers in '28 and somewhere in between in '27. And we're always taking taxes into account on investment decisions. I wouldn't say that's a giant needle mover on the ground game, but we're always taking that into account.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs.

Neil Mehta

Just wanted to start off on your hedging philosophy and how you're thinking about both the '27 and '28 hedge book. Obviously, a lot of backwardation, balance sheet is in good shape here, but it could be an interesting inflection point if you want to do something around hedges. So just curious about that.

James Walter

Yes. I mean I think I'll kick it off. I'd say, look, we've always taken an approach that we need to do whatever it takes to protect the business so that we can survive and thrive during a downturn, frankly, when Permian Resources was smaller and had leverage in the kind of 1x range that began a certain level of hedges. I'd say where we stand today with leverage at 0.5x and delevering quickly, combined with an investment-grade rating and great access to capital, I think hedging to protect the business is no longer a need. But I do think we've said before that I think we like the concept of being opportunistic in hedging. And with commodity prices where they are today, we've seen some interesting windows to layer on some additional hedges, but I don't think it's a need anymore. It's a nice to have. And you'll see us be opportunistic rather than kind of prescriptive going forward.

Neil Mehta

That's great, guys. And then just a follow-up is I'd be curious on where you guys are in terms of extending recoveries. I'm thinking surfactants and secondary zone work. Just talk about what you're doing out in the field and what inning do you think you are? And is it translating into actually improvement in recovery rate?

William Hickey

Yes. I mean we have been, I'd say, testing, studying on the surfactant side for probably a year now. We have done quite a few of, I'd say, post-production surfactant jobs on the production side. And honestly, some of that is when I say production-related capital expenditures in the quarter are, in fact, exactly that. Go pull an ESP that's 2 years old and with a pump truck out there and pump some surfactant in there. And I'd say on both the production side and on the initial completion side, we have seen some cases of tremendous uplift from surfactants. And this is tremendous uplift from legacy wells in the area and control wells on the exact pad.

What's been challenging for us is really kind of sifting through the variability of the results to date. There are some wells where you see uplifts 30, 40-plus percent relative to a control and other wells where you see no uplift or in some cases, even slightly worse wells as compared to the control. And so I think what's encouraging is if you look at it on an aggregate basis, both on the production and on the completion side, from the capital we've spent, we have generated a sub-1-year payback and really returns that are competitive with the existing program on the aggregate.

The complexities is really trying to dig into, I'd say, question one of is this true EUR enhancement recoveries? Or is this just acceleration of barrels you would have already got? And then two, how do we fine-tune this where we do more 30%, 40% increases and less 0 or even decreases? And so what inning are we in? It's got to be early, the second inning. But I do think that unlike other things we and others in the industry have tried over the last couple of years, this one has encouraging results early. It's just going to be very -- it's going to be a long trial and error process to get it to kind of get the right recipe where you can model it, predict it and talk about what it's going to look like in the future.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Arun Jayaram with JPMorgan.

Arun Jayaram

Will and James, you guys have always been really strategic and nimble on how you've managed your supply chain as well as your contracting strategy in the Permian. I was wondering how you guys are thinking about that philosophy or executing that strategy or philosophy in 2027, where we do have some inflationary headwinds largely associated with consumables, but frac activity could get a little bit tighter. And how do you think also about the natural gas versus diesel arbitrage when you're thinking about the type of fleets that you may want to be working next year?

William Hickey

No, I think everything you just said is on our mind. We have I'd say, even earlier this year or even last quarter thought about how far out should we be purchasing casing given the run-up in HRC and potential kind of tariff-related casing increases that are projected into '27. We have been looking long and hard on putting DGB-type kits on our rigs to reduce diesel consumption. I'd say e-fleets are on the table for us. It's been something that has not been in the past.

I think that our strategy as to how we have approached contracting and partnerships with our service companies has not changed. I just think that the balance of where is the value is shifting from if we can pump less diesel, that has -- that moves the needle a lot more than it did in the past. And so maybe it makes sense to spend some capital to convert a fleet or increase horsepower hours slightly to reduce diesel consumption because at the end of the day, that delivers a lower cost per foot wellbore.

But no, I think that you're correct in that diesel and casing are headwinds. Look, there's been other areas that we have seen deflation over the last quarter. It's not all up and to the right. We have seen some areas that the efficiencies that the service companies have provided have allowed a little bit of deflation or deflation in other areas. But no, we're going to do everything we can to kind of continue to be the cost leader in the Delaware going into '27.

Arun Jayaram

Great. And I just had a follow-up on your fourth quarter guidance. Sorry for splitting hairs here, but you produced 208 in 3Q. You're adding 4 kb/d from the Ridge Runner, the old partial quarter of the Ridge Runner and you guided above 210. So the question we've got is, do you expect the 208 that you produced in 3Q, do you expect that to be flat, go down a little bit up? Just a little bit of color around that would be helpful.

James Walter

Yes. That's a good question. I think probably some rounding in guidance, et cetera, but we expect Q4 to be more or less flat from Q3 with the addition of the Ridge Runner barrels.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Josh Silverstein with UBS.

Joshua Silverstein

Given all the acquisitions you've done year-to-date, can you just talk about the runway of your inventory and well productivity trends? Is the new acres that you're adding, is this just extending the duration of your current productivity? Or can you guys actually increase that well productivity kind of average profile with the new inventory?

William Hickey

No, I think that what the acquisitions do is they probably extend the top quartile of our inventory, if that's how you want to think about it. So I would expect flat year-over-year well productivity into next year just as we saw over the last 5 years. I mean we're buying -- we're buying rock that shares lease lines, extends laterals and is incremental working interest in our existing units. So all -- this is just more of our ability to prosecute the exact same development plan with the same capital allocation that we've done historically.

Joshua Silverstein

Got it. And then I was curious if there are any gating items around the ground game in regards to the balance sheet leverage. Do you want to keep that below a certain level? And how do you balance this versus shareholder returns?

James Walter

Yes. I mean I think we're always conscious of not risk -- putting the business at risk when we do anything, acquisitions, development capital. But our balance sheet is in unbelievable shape, right? We're less than 0.5 turn levered, delevering quickly with a ton of cash flow coming off the business and investment-grade ratings. So I'd say the balance sheet is by no means a limiting factor today.

I do think kind of as we think about shareholder returns and other things. I do think kind of as the balance sheet continues to delever from here, I think that kind of makes us take another look at some of the other means to create value for shareholders, acquisitions, share buybacks, increasing the dividend further, et cetera. And it's always been kind of weighing the opportunity sets against each other and seeing which of the 4 or 5 capital allocation decisions we think are going to make the most value for shareholders over the long term. And I'd say our framework and how we think about it hasn't changed, but the balance sheet is in really good shape.

Operator

Your next question comes from Oliver Huang with TPH Research.

Hsu-Lei Huang

Just on my first question on capital allocation. I know you all aren't ready to speak to 2027 quite yet. But just given all the ground game work, the bolt-ons done this year, could we potentially see the New Mexico side of the play garner much more capital as a portion of the corporate?

James Walter

It will be pretty consistent. I mean we did -- we bought that Ward County bolt-on last quarter. So I kind of think our acquisitions have been directionally weighted the same as our capital has been historically. And like we said, kind of we think capital allocation development decisions should look a lot like they have the last few years, which as you mentioned earlier, is extremely strong.

Hsu-Lei Huang

Okay. Makes sense. And just for my second question, on the Ridge Runner assets, any sort of color you can provide on what the working interest is on that specific acquisition. I just know that you all spoken to leaning into higher working interest over the course of the year multiple times. I'm just trying to understand what the opportunity set might be for this specific footprint.

James Walter

Yes. I mean that working interest is in line with kind of what we've been drilling. I think what will be cool about that acquisition that gives us opportunity to go buy some new non-ops that we haven't had before. I'd say every time we've done an acquisition historically, that just creates more ground game opportunities to take that working interest from 75% or 80% to 90%, and that will, I think, provide a good ground game runway to continue to net those working interest up from here.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Gabriel Daoud with Truist Securities.

Gabe Daoud

I was hoping we can maybe just go back to the capital allocation and just given how focused you are on driving free cash flow per share growth, the question, I guess, is, would the buyback become a greater -- like a bigger tool in you driving that free cash flow per share growth higher over time. As you noted, the balance sheet is in really good shape. So just curious, I guess, how does the buyback in your view on using the buyback change over time?

James Walter

Yes. I mean I think we've always said we wanted to buy back shares. I think that's always been an important part of our capital allocation strategy. I'd say the last 4 years, we've seen better opportunities on the [ cash ] acquisition and the kind of balance sheet side. I do think, though, to your point, as the balance sheet gets better and better, I think the attractiveness of buybacks, especially with our really good feeling for how the business develops and grows free cash flow per share over the next 5 and 10 years.

I do think that net-net, buybacks do become more attractive. I'd say -- that said, we are cautious to do buybacks that end up being procyclical. But I do think to your very smart question, as the balance sheet is stronger and stronger over time and frankly, we're more and more confident in the long-term durability of this free cash flow per share growth. I do think that buybacks become more attractive.

Gabe Daoud

Okay. Okay. No, that's helpful. I appreciate that, James. And then I guess as a quick follow-up. Could you maybe just tell us just given all the deals and you're kind of guiding to greater than 80% working interest, like how greater is greater than 80%? Is it 90%? Like how much has that moved up this year just given all the deals that you've done?

James Walter

A little bit over 80% is probably the right way to frame it. Not 85%.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of John Abbott with Wolfe Research.

John Abbott

So really 2 quick ones for me. First, you continue to improve your base business. Can you remind us where your underlying decline rate is at and the opportunities to improve upon that as well? And the second question, I'm going to go back to workovers, I asked about it last quarter. At that time, it seemed that you had pretty much exhausted the opportunities. But this quarter, you highlighted them again. What has changed on the workover front? What is the opportunity running room there at this point in time? Those are my 2 questions.

William Hickey

Love it. I'll take them both. Thanks, John. Our base decline really hasn't changed. It's still in the high 30s on an oil basis and call it mid-30s on a Boe basis. Just the growth -- the organic growth that the business has demonstrated over the last few years is obviously offset to what would have naturally been an arresting base decline. And then on -- yes, on the capital workover side, it's very astute of you. It did feel like at the end of Q2, we had kind of run the course of finding workover-related projects.

I'd say 2 things changed. One, if you think about, we took over operations on that Ward County bolt-on, which was a legacy asset of a much larger company, which I'd say is normal course for us is us to go kind of work over and get those wells back online. But in this particular case, given oil price, I'd say we aggressively worked over that asset.

So new assets came in that created new opportunities as well as kind of, I'd say my definition of workover may have expanded quarter-over-quarter where the team has found not just take wells that were down and get them back online, but think more proactive projects to convert gas lift to ESP in cases where ESP made sense, think surfactant jobs or other acid jobs kind of -- historically, I've always thought of workovers if you've got a backlog of wells that are down and you can go fix them. And in reality, when oil is in the 90s, the team can go find ways to add barrels on a more proactive basis.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Paul Diamond with Citi.

Paul Diamond

As you talk about increased takeaway and the recovering Waha, I guess, pricing matrix, does that shift the development plan at all? Is there any room for maybe a few higher GOR wells? Or is it all still going to remain largely oil driven?

James Walter

Yes. I mean the economics are still oil driven at anything resembling these prices. I wouldn't say it changed capital allocation at all, but it does make the returns of our wells meaningfully higher. I think every well that you drill makes a lot of gas and higher gas prices from better downstream makes every single well we drill more economic, faster paybacks, more free cash flow. So it's all really good, but doesn't change capital allocation.

Paul Diamond

Got it. And then just a quick follow-up. As you guys -- especially with Ridge Runner and the transaction last quarter, you guys are seeing a rising component of royalty interest across the portfolio. I guess can you talk about the strategy of those within the portfolio? Is there any potential for monetization at a certain scale? Or do you like them where they are?

James Walter

I mean the first kind of driving reason we've always targeted high NRI acreage is because it makes the economics better. It makes every well you drill returns stronger, paybacks shorter and more free cash flow for the same capital. So that's kind of the root driver and kind of has always been.

But I will say kind of as the business has grown, I do think we've got a really high-quality royalties business that's probably underappreciated by the market, both what it means to the upstream business, but also what it means kind of on a stand-alone basis. So I think for us, for now, we like having it kind of where it sits today. But I think over time, especially we're convinced that could make sense and unlock additional value for shareholders. We consider ways to kind of enhance and maximize value there. But I'd say for now, it's still largely upstream driven from a rationale standpoint, and we like where it sits.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Leo Mariani with ROTH.

Leo Mariani

I was wondering if you could sort of speak to the M&A environment a little bit more. Obviously, you guys have done a number of deals. Was this Ridge Runner kind of a competitive marketed deal? Are you seeing most of the deals in the Permian come with kind of more competition these days? Just trying to get a sense of what you're seeing on deal flow and then sort of competition from others.

James Walter

Yes. I think generally, like the bigger deals that we see tend to have some amount of competition, kind of the $500 million and bigger tend to have kind of some sort of competition. I think for us, we've only ended up buying deals that we thought we had a unique edge, unique angle and typically a one-on-one dialogue with the seller, which is how Ridge Runner ended up. And then on the smaller stuff, we still buy most of our ground game and bolt-on stuff on a bilateral negotiated basis that's not marketed and tends to not have any other buyers in the room as those negotiations go on.

Leo Mariani

Okay. Appreciate that. And I guess just wanted to also get a sense of whether or not you guys are continuing to maybe look harder at some of the secondary zones, potentially the Woodford as we get into 2027, particularly in light of the better gas environment.

William Hickey

Yes. Look, I'd say, generally speaking, yes, we're always looking at secondary zones and ways to kind of find free resource over our existing position. I'd say that what's happened so far on kind of the eastern margin of the basin, the Woodford is exciting. If you look at the same kind of -- you've seen a lot of Penn Shale development across Lea and Eddy counties over the last few years as well as kind of some co-development in the Harkey and the Avalon in ways we have not seen in the past. So look, the Delaware Basin, I said this earlier, is like we are still very much in the middle innings of discovering the optimal cube across the entire basin.

And as such, new benches like the Woodford, Penn Shale, et cetera, continue to get discovered. Look, I think for our position in New Mexico, you can assume we own all depths, including all the way through the Woodford across the whole position. And then in Texas, it will be -- most of it, we will not do the [ PUDs ], but we'll own it on a kind of a small percentage of it across the Texas position.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Geoff Jay with Daniel Energy Partners.

Geoff Jay

A very quick one for me, kind of a follow-up to John Freeman's question earlier. I guess I'm curious if it was the AI monitoring the biggest contribution to the low failure of lift? And then kind of the follow-up to that is just how broadly is that now deployed? Is it kind of fully integrated across the acreage?

William Hickey

I don't want to give the AI that much credit. I think our team has been optimizing this stuff forever. I do think them getting it into a single dashboard with an artificial intelligence engine sitting on top has been very enlightening. I think of it as if a production engineer working the Haley asset kind of on the eastern edge of Reeves County makes a change to the number of hertz to fix a warning or fix a problem, the AI engine learns that, that worked. And then when an engineer working Lea County encounters the same problem, it immediately tells them, "Hey, somebody did this yesterday and it fixed it. Why don't you try this?"

So like it's not -- I don't want to give it credit that it's solving things we couldn't solve. It's just disseminating information in a way that we could never have done really quickly. But -- and then as to where it sits, I'd say all of our ESPs are on it. So I think we run about 600 ESPs as a company, and all 600 are in this application that has real-time monitoring. I'd say we're headed now is to try to get gas lift, rod pump, et cetera, so we can make the same dissemination of information on like what type of -- if you see GLRs move in one direction, if you could have the AI engine and say, "Hey, I recommend you shift this from gas lift to ESP " or vice versa as opposed to just optimizing the lift that's already on it.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Noah Hungnes with Wells Fargo.

Noah Hungness

For my first question here, given all of the M&A and just the base business improvements as well that people have been touching on, could you help us how we can think about what the maintenance CapEx kind of program looks like now?

William Hickey

Yes. I'd say kind of at the, call it, north of 200,000 barrels of oil per day rate that we printed this quarter, it's -- the business is 10% bigger. I'd say maintenance CapEx is probably between $1.9 billion and $2 billion.

Noah Hungness

Is that also inclusive of the Ridge Runner?

William Hickey

Yes.

Noah Hungness

Okay. And then I guess for my second question is kind of going off of the gas marketing and your guys' push to get closer to the end user. Getting the gas to the Gulf Coast, obviously gets you closer to the end user, but is there a desire to take a step further and try to set up supply agreements with an actual end user? Or we've seen some of your peers sign up for -- sign up to work with offtakers around LNG. Are these kind of options that you guys are exploring? Or is there interest?

James Walter

No, absolutely. That's a great question, something we spend a lot more time on. I think you said that our first priority was moving further downstream to get away from Waha and closer to end users. And I think we've done a tremendous job of that, pretty close to mission accomplished, like I said earlier. But that's just step one. I think kind of as we think about continuing to optimize how we market and sell our molecules, Fortunately, we have a ton of flexibility kind of downstream from there.

And I'd say we're looking at all options today, yes, LNG deals, kind of final end users, potential infrastructure investments, et cetera. And -- but I think that said, we have a really high bar for investment returns. So I think we're being very thoughtful as we think about how we spend dollars, if we spend dollars and where we want to sell molecules for not just the next year, but the next decade plus. So I think that's kind of step 2 and step 3 after a really successful step 1, but something we're spending a lot of time on and should have more to share over the next year or 2.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to James Walter, Co-CEO, for closing remarks.

James Walter

Thanks again to everyone for joining the call. As you can see, Q3 was an outstanding quarter. The combination of higher production and lower cash costs led to record free cash flow, and our acquisition strategy continues to improve our free cash flow and inventory. We look forward to building on that progress and continue to drive value for our shareholders for years to come. Thanks again.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.