베리스크(VRSK) 2026년 3분기 실적 발표: OCC 성장률 7.4%, 가이던스 유지

핵심 요약

• 베리스크(Verisk)의 2026년 3분기 매출은 전년 동기 대비 5% 증가한 8억 900만 달러를 기록했다. 오가닉 불변통화 기준 매출은 7.4% 증가했으며, 언더라이팅 부문이 7.7%, 클레임 부문이 6.7% 성장했다.
• 전체 매출의 84%를 차지하는 구독 매출은 오가닉 불변통화 기준으로 8.2% 증가했다. 트랜잭션 매출은 3.2% 성장했으나, 경영진은 이번 분기의 견조한 기여도가 4분기에도 반복되지는 않을 것으로 예상했다.
• 조정 EBITDA 마진은 전년 동기 대비 90bp 상승한 56.7%에 달했다. 희석 조정 EPS는 매출 성장, 마진 확대, 평균 유통 주식 수 감소에 힘입어 14% 증가한 1.96달러를 기록했다.
• 경영진은 연간 매출 31억 9,000만~32억 4,000만 달러, 조정 EPS 7.45~7.75달러를 포함한 2026년 연간 가이던스를 유지했다. 영업 주기의 장기화와 기상 관련 활동 감소로 인해 실적은 가이던스 범위의 중간 수준에 머물 것으로 예상된다.
• 베리스크는 AI 관련 제품 및 데이터의 도입이 확대되고 있다고 밝혔다. '폼스 AI 빌더(Forms AI Builder)'는 9월 중순 베타 출시 이후 14개 기업이 도입해 사용 중이며, AI 기반 개발 작업을 통해 라이프 솔루션(Life Solutions) 부문에서 측정 기준 최대 30%의 생산성 향상을 기록했다.
• 단기적인 압박은 여전히 트랜잭션 활동에 집중되어 있다. 대형 재해 발생이 줄어들면서 연결 매출의 약 10%를 차지하는 도급업체 및 손해사정인의 수요가 감소했다.

주요 재무 실적

GAAP 순이익 감소는 주로 원가법 적용 투자 자산 2건에 대한 평가손실과 순이자비용 증가가 반영된 결과다. 영업현금흐름과 잉여현금흐름의 감소는 반기 이자 지급액 증가, 현금 법인세 납부액 증가, 대금 회수 시점의 차이에 기인했다.

베리스크는 이번 분기 중 1억 달러 규모의 가속 자사주 매입(ASR)을 완료했다. 2026년 첫 9개월 동안 총 1,050만 주를 매입했으며, 매입 승인 한도 중 약 7억 달러의 잔여 여력을 보유하고 있다. 분기 배당금은 주당 0.50달러로 전년 동기 대비 11% 증가했다.

사업 및 영업 실적

구독 매출 성장은 서식·규칙·손실비용(Forms, Rules, and Loss Costs), 대형 재해 및 리스크 솔루션(Catastrophe and Risk Solutions), 사기 방지 분석 부문이 견인했다. 경영진은 고객 기반 확대, 가격 인상, 신제품 도입을 주요 성장 요인으로 꼽았다.

'모차르트 폼스 컴포저(Mozart Forms Composer)'는 2026년 중 1티어 대형 보험사와의 플랫폼 사상 최대 규모 계약을 포함해 신규 고객 9곳을 확보했다. 일반 배상책임 분야에 먼저 출시된 '폼스 AI 빌더'는 9월 중순 베타 단계에 진입한 이후 14개 기업이 활용하고 있다.

대형 재해 및 리스크 솔루션 부문은 '베리스크 시너지 스튜디오(Verisk Synergy Studio)' 관련 가격 정책, 제품 도입 및 업셀링에 힘입어 두 자릿수 구독 매출 성장을 달성했다. 현재 16개 고객사가 해당 플랫폼을 가동 중이며, 4분기에 추가 구축이 예정되어 있다.

사기 방지 부문 성장은 계약 갱신 시 가격 인상, 신규 고객 유치, 디지털 미디어 포렌식 및 '클레임 커버리지 식별자(Claims Coverage Identifier)' 도입 확대를 반영했다. 베리스크의 디지털 미디어 포렌식 라이브러리는 지난 3월 6억 건에서 8억 건 이상의 이미지로 확대됐다.

아울러 회사는 초과 및 잉여 보험(E&S) 데이터셋 구축을 지속했다. 데이터 제공 참여사는 21개 사에 달했으며, 플랫폼이 다루는 E&S 원수보험료 규모는 직전 분기 실적 발표 당시의 180억 달러에서 두 배 증가한 360억 달러를 기록했다.

경영진은 AI가 제품 기능과 내부 개발 역량을 모두 향상시키고 있다고 밝혔다. '패스트 스튜디오(Fast Studio)'는 라이프 솔루션 부문의 소프트웨어 개발 수명주기 전반에서 측정 기준 최대 30%의 생산성 향상을 창출했다. 베리스크는 또한 한 전문 보험사와 함께 에이전틱 AI(agentic AI) 워크플로를 공동 개발 중이며, 미국 일반 배상책임 분야의 실전 검증 및 상용화를 목표로 작업을 진행하고 있다.

경영진 가이던스

베리스크는 2026년 연간 전망을 다음과 같이 유지했다:

경영진은 영업 주기의 장기화와 기상 관련 활동 감소로 인해 실적이 가이던스 범위의 중간 수준을 유지할 것으로 예상했다. 또한 3분기에 기록한 예상보다 견조한 트랜잭션 매출이 4분기에는 재현되지 않을 것으로 예상된다고 주의를 당부했다.

리스크 및 주요 점검 요인

대형 재해 발생 감소세가 이어지며 수리 및 복구 수요가 지속적으로 둔화되고 있다. 도급업체와 손해사정인은 연결 매출의 약 10%를 차지하는데, 베리스크는 이들 고객군에서 대금 회수 압박과 소수 고객사의 파산을 겪었다. 경영진은 이러한 요인이 2027년 초까지도 일부 부담으로 남을 수 있다고 설명했다.

트랜잭션 매출은 평년 대비 적은 기상 이변과 미국 및 캐나다 부동산 시장의 둔화에 여전히 노출되어 있다. 이러한 여건은 4분기에도 지속될 것으로 예상된다.

보험사들이 신뢰성, 거버넌스, 규제 측면의 설명가능성, 제공 데이터의 처리 방식을 검증함에 따라 AI 도입은 신중하게 진행되고 있다. 이에 따라 대형 엔터프라이즈 계약의 경우 구축 및 승인 주기가 더 길어질 수 있다.

추진 중인 아큐링크스(AccuLynx) 인수 건은 여전히 통상적인 거래 종결 조건과 미국 연방거래위원회(FTC)의 심사를 거쳐야 한다. 경영진은 거래 종결이 보장된 것은 아니라고 강조했다.

애널리스트 질의응답(Q&A) 주요 내용

• AI 도입 일정: 경영진은 향후 12~24개월에 걸쳐 AI 도입이 확대될 것으로 예상하고 있다. 현재 중소형 고객사는 라이선스 도입에 더 빠르게 움직이고 있는 반면, 대형 보험사는 광범위한 전사적 도입을 검토 중이다.
• AI 수익화: 클로드 MCP 커넥터(Claude MCP connector)를 통한 접근은 현재 주로 핵심 상품군 계약에 포함되어 높은 가격 책정을 통해 수익화되고 있다. 베리스크는 향후 사용량 추이에 따라 별도 요금을 부과할 수 있는 선택지를 확보해 두었다.
• 트랜잭션 매출: 3분기는 라이프 솔루션 서비스 매출과 데이터 조회 초과 사용료의 수혜를 입었다. 경영진은 기상 요인 및 부동산 시장 압박이 지속되는 가운데 이러한 요인들이 재발하지 않을 수 있다고 언급했다.
• 마진 및 재투자: 베리스크는 인베스터 데이(Investor Day)에서 제시한 25~75bp의 마진 확대 목표를 유지하면서, AI 기반 생산성 개선으로 절감된 비용의 일부를 재투자할 계획이다.
• 데이터 경쟁우위: 경영진은 고객사들이 자체 내부 데이터만으로는 베리스크의 광범위한 업계 데이터셋과 동일한 사기 방지 성과를 내기 어렵다는 점을 인식하고 있다고 전했다. 자가보험을 운영하는 상위 5대 소매업체 중 한 곳은 대규모 다년 계약을 체결하며 베리스크의 사기 방지 솔루션으로 복귀했다.
• 자본 배분: 잠재적인 아큐링크스 인수 건으로 인해 베리스크의 우선순위가 바뀐 것은 아니며, 오가닉 투자, 선별된 전략적 기회, 주주 환원이라는 기본 방침을 유지하고 있다.

실적 발표 콘퍼런스콜 전문

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Verisk Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Results Conference Call. This call is being recorded.[Operator Instructions]

For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Verisk's Senior Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations, Ms. Stacey Brodbar. Ms. Stacey Brodbar, please go ahead.

Stacey Brodbar

Thank you, operator, and good day, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today for a discussion of our third quarter 2026 financial results. On the call today are Lee Shavel, Verisk's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Elizabeth Mann, Chief Financial Officer.

The earnings release referenced on our traditional quarterly earnings presentation and the associated 10-Q can be found in the Investors section of our website, verisk.com. The earnings release has also been attached to an 8-K that we have furnished to the SEC. A replay of this call will be available for 30 days on our website and by dial-in.

As set forth in more detail in today's earnings release, I will remind everyone that today's call may include forward-looking statements about Verisk's future performance, including those related to our financial guidance. Actual performance could differ materially from what is suggested by our comments today. Information about the factors that could affect future performance is contained in our recent SEC filings. A reconciliation of reported and historic non-GAAP financial measures discussed on this call is provided in our 8-K and today's earnings presentation posted on the Investors section of our website, verisk.com.

However, we are not able to provide a reconciliation of projected adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin and adjusted EPS to the most directly comparable expected GAAP results because of the unreasonable effort and high unpredictability of estimating certain items that are excluded from projected non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin and adjusted EPS. The including, for example, tax consequences, acquisition-related costs, gains and losses from dispositions and other nonrecurring expenses, the effect of which may be significant.

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Lee Shavel.

Lee Shavel

Thanks, Stacey. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us on our third quarter earnings call. This morning, I'll focus on three topics: First, I'll briefly review our financial and operational performance for the third quarter. Second, I will provide an update on client engagement and the strategic discussions we are having across our customer base. Third, I will discuss our innovation pipeline, including advancements with our market-leading AI solutions and capabilities. Then Elizabeth will take you through our financial results and outlook for the remainder of the year in more detail.

Before turning to our results, I want to briefly address the Delaware Supreme Court's order regarding AccuLynx, which was handed down on October 23. As we said in our press release on that day, we respect the Delaware Supreme Court's order affirming the judgment of the Delaware Chancery Court and will proceed in accordance with the court's order. The transaction remains subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions and the FTC review. As with any transaction, there is no guarantee that the transaction will be completed. We will provide updates on the transaction as the FTC's review process commences and moves forward as appropriate.

With that, let's turn to the quarter's results. Verisk delivered organic constant currency revenue growth of 7.4%. Growth improved sequentially from the second quarter in both Underwriting and Claims, returning to levels in line with our medium-term annual targets. Revenue growth was underpinned by an increase in subscription revenues of 8.2% and stronger-than-anticipated transactional revenue growth of 3.2%. Organic constant currency adjusted EBITDA increased 7.5%, marking another quarter of healthy margins. Diluted adjusted earnings per share increased 14%, reflecting the impact of our continued focus on share buybacks to return capital to shareholders. As we close out the year, we continue to expect that 2026 will be another year of performance in line with our Investor Day targets and maintain our guidance for this year.

Turning to client engagement. This has been an extremely active quarter as we deepen our strategic engagement through executive leadership meetings, industry conferences, including CIAB and our own Verisk hosted events and targeted account discussions. In fact, this quarter, we hosted 128 senior executive engagements. These conversations provide valuable insights into the issues shaping our clients' priorities and help inform both our innovation road map and go-to-market strategy. Importantly, they are also instrumental in driving growth for Verisk as clients are choosing to expand and extend their relationships with us as they adopt new capabilities reflecting the value of investments we have made to improve the quality of our data and technology.

Our clients are navigating a dynamic operating environment marked by rising interest rates and inflation as well as growing geopolitical and civil unrest. While these macro factors do not have a material direct impact on Verisk's operating results, they do shape insurance markets. Today, these markets are generally stable, but softer than in recent years, most notably in commercial lines and property as well as within reinsurance.

Carrier profitability remains strong, supported by a second consecutive year of lower catastrophe losses. However, lighter weather activity has reduced repair and restoration demand for our contractor and adjuster clients who account for approximately 10% of our consolidated revenue. This has contributed to strains on this customer type, including certain collection pressures and bankruptcies for a small number of these customers.

However, the longer-term trend continues to point to an ever-increasing risk environment from new emerging risks like advanced technologies, including AI, strike, riot and civil commotion, and cyber as well as greater catastrophe losses. In fact, our recently published Global Modeled Catastrophe Losses Report reinforces that weather-related events will continue to pressure the industry. The annual report calculates that the insurance industry should be prepared to withstand $171 billion in insured catastrophe losses on average in a given year, up $19 billion from a year ago, and the highest estimate Verisk has reported to date. This increase reflects continued growth in property values and insured values worldwide.

For this reason, we are focused on supporting the industry as they work to maintain underwriting discipline and make informed pricing, capital allocation and risk transfer decisions based on the full range of risk, not just the outcome of a single season. Across our client conversations, AI is top of mind, both from an opportunity and a risk perspective and there is an increasing demand from clients to validate a true return on their AI investments. To that end, we are seeing strong interest and increased activity in pilots and proof-of-concept work across our AI solutions. Reflecting this, we have seen increased growth in the license of AI-related solutions across our businesses. However, the insurance industry moves deliberately as it develops confidence in the reliability of the technology.

On the opportunity side, our clients are focused on ways they can use advanced technologies to improve efficiency, reduce operational friction and drive greater automation across their organizations. One key pain point for our clients is policy forms management, and many carriers are looking to target this area for modernization, which is resulting in strong interest for our Mozart Forms Composer platform. Mozart helps clients draft and update policy language faster, offering full version control and audit trails, which reduce compliance risk and accelerate speed to market. We have added nine new customers this year, including our largest ever agreement for Mozart with a Tier 1 carrier undertaking an enterprise-wide review of its forms process.

Our latest launch Forms AI Builder is initially available for general liability and combines generative AI with ISO content. Since its beta release in mid-September, 14 companies are already using it, with feedback indicating that it helps them move faster from emerging risk to coverage solutions.

Clients are also increasingly recognizing the value of Verisk's industry-wide and AI-ready data in delivering better outcomes and higher returns on investment in an AI world. One example is a self-insured top five retailer that brought workers' compensation claims management in-house, expecting AI to support the work. After finding that outcomes and return on investment were stronger with Verisk's data, the client returned to our Anti-Fraud solution and signed a large multiyear agreement. This underscores the importance of pairing AI capabilities with the breadth and depth of our data to deliver measurable value.

On the risk side, our conversations with carriers, particularly at the C-suite level are focused on how we can help insurers understand, assess and respond to emerging AI-related cyber and liability exposures across their existing portfolios. Clients are increasingly assessing the breadth of systemic risk associated with the adoption of AI by policyholders, including questions around liability, errors and emissions unintended outcomes and aggregation risk. Carriers are turning to Verisk as the trusted partner who has a proven track record of independently helping each insurer successfully navigate other emerging risks of the past.

To that end, we have introduced research and data tools, including an AI litigation tracker, AI exposure mapping and a U.S. data center exposure database to help clients assess and understand the risks. Customers are also finding value in engaging with us at our dedicated emerging issues workshop, something we launched as part of our core line subscription.

Turning to innovation. AI is not only enhancing the solutions we bring to market. It is also accelerating how quickly we build and deliver them. Our Life Solutions business is a good example. Fast Studio, our platform aware a genetic AI development environment helps our teams design, build and test new functionality faster across both core product engineering and client implementation projects. Early measured work shows productivity gains up to 30% across the software development life cycle. Additionally, we are making strong progress through our partnership with a leading specialty insurer to co-develop agentic AI capabilities.

Our engineering and agent building teams are working side by side with the client to develop end-to-end agent workflows. We are now in the third phase of the partnership with each phase comprising multiple sprints, building iteratively towards our next major review in December. The focus is now shifting towards real-world validation deeper integration and the path to production for U.S. general liability. Our strategy is to ensure that the capabilities and reusable artifacts created through the partnership become part of our broader product portfolio, enabling us to extend the value of this work across multiple products, our marketplace, workflows and clients.

And while AI is central to much of our innovation, we are also continuing to build our data advantage as we grow the value of our contributory data assets across Underwriting and Claims. More specifically, we are continuing to have success onboarding new data contributors to our new excess and surplus data set. We have commitments from 21 data contributors and the data set now covers $36 billion in excess and surplus premium, up from the $18 billion we shared at our last quarterly earnings call in July.

Our clients are telling us the new E&S benchmarking tool is allowing them to perform portfolio analytics. They were previously unable to do which is driving the increase in companies contributing data. Last month, we introduced an AI assistant within the tool, and we are also leveraging AI to streamline the data contribution process by accepting carrier native formats across all lines of business, including MGA data and mapping it to our new E&S data standard.

Within Claims, we have expanded our data set in digital media forensics and now have over 800 million images in our library, up from 600 million back in March. We have built the most comprehensive image library for use in fraud detection, and this is a demonstration of our ability to innovate and scale new products for our clients at speed, and we are excited about the continued momentum we are seeing.

In summary, our deep engagement with clients is helping to drive further data contribution and strong reception to new solutions across our businesses, and we are proud to work in partnership with the industry to continue to innovate and drive value.

And now I will turn the call over to Elizabeth for the detailed financial review.

Elizabeth Mann

Thanks, Lee, and good day to everyone on the call. On a consolidated and GAAP basis, third quarter revenue was $809 million, up 5% versus the prior year, reflecting growth across both Underwriting and Claims. Net income was $219 million, a 3% decrease versus the prior year, while diluted GAAP earnings per share were $1.70, up 6% versus the prior year. The decrease in net income was mainly driven by losses related to adjustments to two cost-based investments and higher net interest expense, which more than offset the operating leverage from the revenue growth and cost discipline. The increase in earnings per share reflects solid operational performance and a lower average share count.

Moving to our organic constant currency results adjusted for nonoperating items, as defined in the non-GAAP financial measures section of our press release, Verisk delivered OCC revenue growth of 7.4%, with growth of 7.7% in underwriting and 6.7% in claims, demonstrating strong growth and sequential improvement across both businesses. This quarter's performance was modestly ahead of our expectations due to stronger-than-expected transactional revenues that we do not expect to repeat in the fourth quarter. The clearest demonstration of the health of our business is the continued growth of our subscription revenues.

Subscription revenue, which comprised 84% of total revenue in the quarter, grew 8.2% on an OCC basis, compounding the 8.7% growth in the prior year period. The growth in subscription revenue was driven by continued strength across our largest subscription-based businesses including Forms, Rules, and Loss Costs, Catastrophe and Risk Solutions and antifraud analytics. In Forms, Rules, and Loss Costs, our clients are choosing to expand and extend their relationship with us. reflecting the investment we have made in our core lines reimagine program.

Additionally, we are seeing strong upsell from new add-on growth products. including Mozart Form Composer and Forms AI Builder, which Lee described earlier. We also see steady growth in the number of users as well as data poles with our Claude MCP connector, and we are excited about the recent expansion of our offering with Microsoft and Amazon as well as further content available via plan.

Within Catastrophe and Risk Solutions, we delivered another strong quarter of growth while successfully executing a major platform and model launch. We delivered double-digit subscription growth driven by strong adoption healthy pricing and upsell related to Verisk Synergy Studio. Verisk Synergy Studio was launched in late June, and we just released our first quarterly update in October, both on time and on budget. Early feedback has been very positive, and we already have 16 clients running the platform with a strong pipeline of further installations slated for the fourth quarter. We continue to be focused on supporting our clients through their migration.

In Anti-Fraud, we drove solid growth across the product suite, with strong price realization in renewals, adoption of newer innovations like digital media forensics and claims coverage identifier and the addition of new logos across self-insurance, EPAs and the health companies. These customers appreciate the value they can derive from our contributory data in identifying fraud across all lines of insurance.

Our Transactional revenues, which comprised 16% of our total revenues, increased 3.2% on an OCC basis, a significant sequential improvement from the second quarter and better than our expectations. The increase was partially a result of the abatement of some of the temporary factors that we have previously communicated and easier comparisons as well as stronger services revenue in our Life Solutions business. That said, we continue to experience the impact of below-average weather events across our Property and Restoration Solutions as well as pressure in property in the U.S. and Canada related to the soft market environment. And we expect these factors to persist into the fourth quarter.

Turning to adjusted EBITDA. OCC adjusted EBITDA grew 7.5% in the quarter. Total adjusted EBITDA margin, including both organic and inorganic results, was 56.7%, an increase of 90 basis points year-over-year. This expansion reflects operating leverage from strong revenue growth and our ongoing cost discipline. We continue to see benefits from our global talent optimization efforts, and are seeing the early signs of AI-driven productivity initiatives, which together are allowing for increased investment in innovation and our go-to-market efforts.

Moving down the income statement. Net interest expense was $53 million in the quarter compared to $42 million in the prior year period due to higher debt balances. Our current leverage of 2.5x is right at the midpoint of our targeted range of 2x to 3x adjusted EBITDA. Our reported effective tax rate was 25.7%, and compared to 25.3% in the prior year quarter. The year-over-year increase was driven by the impact of nondeductible losses associated with two cost-based investments.

Adjusted net income increased 5.4% to $254 million, while diluted adjusted EPS rose 14% to $1.96 for the quarter. Revenue growth, margin expansion and a lower average share count drove the increase, partially offset by higher interest expense and a higher tax rate.

On a reported basis, Net cash from operating activities decreased 34% to $267 million, while free cash flow declined 41% to $200 million. The decrease was primarily driven by higher semiannual interest payments and higher cash tax payments as well as the timing of certain cash collections as compared to the prior year. We remain committed to our disciplined capital allocation strategy, balancing investment in our highest return organic opportunities, select strategic opportunities and return of capital to our shareholders.

During the third quarter, we paid a cash dividend of $0.50 per share, an 11% increase year-over-year and completed a $100 million accelerated share repurchase program. In total, we have repurchased 10.5 million shares during the first nine months of 2026 and have approximately $700 million remaining under our share repurchase authorization. Our capital allocation framework is underpinned by the continued strength of our balance sheet, which remains well within our target leverage range. We have ample balance sheet capacity to continue delivering on our capital priorities while preserving our overall flexibility.

We are pleased to deliver the continued momentum we expected in the third quarter and are maintaining our outlook for 2026. That said, we do continue to see some continued impact from the elongated sales cycle as well as the lower level of weather events. Taken together, these factors likely keep our results towards the midpoint of the range. A complete listing of all guidance measures can be found in the earnings slide deck, which has been posted to the Investors section of our website, verisk.com.

We continue to expect consolidated revenue in the range of $3.19 billion to $3.24 billion. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $1.79 billion and $1.83 billion with adjusted EBITDA margins of 56% to 56.5%. We continue to expect net interest expense of $190 million to $200 million and our effective tax rate to be in the range of 23% to 26%. This results in adjusted earnings per share for the year in the range of $7.45 to $7.75.

And now let me turn the call back to Lee for some closing remarks.

Lee Shavel

Thanks, Elizabeth. In summary, we are experiencing the growth rebound that we anticipated in our financial results. Additionally, the increased value in our products from AI functionality is improving price realization and the increased engagement from our clients and partners as they recognize the value of our data and expertise in generating real returns on their AI investments. We continue to appreciate all the support and interest in Verisk. Given the large number of analysts we have covering us, we ask that you limit yourself to one question.

With that, I'll ask the operator to open the line for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Manav Patnaik with Barclays.

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Manav Patnaik

I was just hoping, Lee, you made the kind of the proactive comments around the contractor and adjuster clients being 10% of your revenues. And seeing some headwinds there. I was just wondering if you could unpack that like are you -- is that implying that those headwinds continue in '27 and is something to call out? Or just wanted to dig into that a bit more.

Lee Shavel

Thanks, Manav. I'm going to hand that one to Elizabeth.

Elizabeth Mann

Yes. Thanks for the question, Manav. We just wanted to highlight, we've talked a little bit about the impact of lighter weather on our business. We are large and diversified. And so what for us has been a minor headwind. If you think about the industry environment, the contractor is particularly small businesses are under pressure with that lighter volume, and we have seen one or two bankruptcies in the space. So that is something just that we've been monitoring. It's incorporated in kind of the guidance ranges that we've talked about, but it could be a minor factor as we go into early '27.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Toni Kaplan with Morgan Stanley.

Toni Kaplan

And thanks for the color on the AI initiatives during the prepared remarks. I know you referenced the longer sales cycle again, but it does sound like you're seeing some adoption in some of the AI areas regardless. And so I was hoping you could maybe talk about what still needs to be ironed out? Is this only with some customers? And when these are resolved, should we think about it as sort of opening the floodgates for new AI sales? Just trying to get a sense of how big of a needle mover this could be for growth next year and how much of sort of impact it's having this year?

Lee Shavel

Yes. Thanks, Toni. So I think what we are seeing and as you picked up from the comments, is that there is broad engagement from our clients across all of the functions that where we're engaged with them from underwriting, claims, cat modeling, distribution. And the way I described it in my remarks is that it's a very deliberate process. And I think it is a little different in the insurance industry relative to the financial markets where they consume a lot of data, there are fewer gateways or hurdles that they typically clear to ingest that data.

And so the dialogue that we're having with clients is understanding it, but even among our most sophisticated clients, they are very engaged. They want to understand it, but they're asking very specific questions, how do we rely on this? Is this something that there is a strong empirical backing for? And what we have seen is as they become more familiar and more comfortable with the data sets and the applications they without question are seeing the benefits, the informational benefits and the efficiency benefits in each of these areas.

The Forms AI Builder is a great example of where they can process forms and make adjustments to forms much more quickly. In our Exact Expert, Exact AI, the claims processing and estimating capabilities are accelerated. In cat modeling, our ability to test those models is improving. And so I think it is very broad-based. There's a high level of engagement on the value of it, but it will proceed in a very measured, but I think broad-based and impactful way over the course of the next 12 to 24 months as the industry becomes more and more familiar with it.

It also is emphasizing the value of our data sets. We referred to the self-insured top five retailer who initially attempted to utilize AI to handle an Anti-Fraud application and they found it simply wasn't nearly as effective as using our data sets. So beyond the adoption of the technology, it's also reinforcing the importance and the value of our broad industry-wide data sets to guide their placement of business, their underwriting of business and their claims processes.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Faiza Alwy with Deutsche Bank.

Faiza Alwy

Elizabeth, I wanted to ask you about transactional revenues because I believe you said that you saw stronger-than-expected transactional revenues that you don't expect to repeat in the fourth quarter. Just was looking for some additional color around that. And I know you talked about softer commercial lines and property. And kind of wanted to understand if that has sort of stabilized? Or do you expect expecting to potentially get even softer than they are?

Elizabeth Mann

Yes. Thanks for the question, Faiza. As you've seen, our subscription growth has been consistent and strong. The transactional revenue in the third quarter at 3% was a bit stronger perhaps than anticipated. Transactional revenues by their nature are harder to predict, of course. And we benefited in the third quarter from additional services businesses, service on our Life Solutions business as well as some overages on data pools in different parts of the business, those overages may may or may not repeat.

I think the overall environment that we see still does have below average weather events on our Claims side and the property markets that still are softer with lower transaction volume. So that environment could persist in the fourth quarter. Again, in the long run, we do expect transactional revenues to be a source of strength.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Curtis Nagle with Bank of America.

Curtis Nagle

Great. Just a quick one on the margins. The flow through looked pretty good in the quarter. I guess how much of that was due to additional leverage just off of that transactional revenue you saw come through? Or were there any shifts in terms of the timing of expenses? And then just maybe the puts and takes of getting to the high end in something, I guess you're going to be in the mid-range for EBITDA, but just wanted to confirm that for the fourth quarter.

Elizabeth Mann

Yes. Thanks, bunch, Curt. Nothing anomalous that we would call out in the quarter. Yes, some flow-through on that transactional revenue. But in general, our margins if you look at, I think, the graph of it say, continue to display the seasonality that we've talked about before with typically stronger margins in the second and third quarter due to revenue mix and then our expenses and investment expenses tend to build over the course of the year. So from a seasonal perspective, the fourth quarter is often a bit lower from a margin standpoint, but all in line with kind of our historical patterns.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Scott Wurtzel with Wolf Research.

Scott Wurtzel

Just wondering if you can talk a little bit more about the puts and takes on the acceleration in Underwriting, OCC revenue growth during the quarter. I'm not sure if any of the transactional-based revenues had kind of the acceleration there. But just wondering if you could talk about sort of the drivers of that growth acceleration from 5.6% to 7.7%?

Elizabeth Mann

Yes. Thanks for the question, Scott. One element of it, to be honest, is the compares for Underwriting. If you look a year ago, the third quarter was significantly softer. I think that's the main thing. One element that we talked -- we did have, from a sequential standpoint, there was the government contract with a work stoppage in the second quarter. And so that resumption of work helped the sequential acceleration. Again, from a year-over-year, it's not a major factor, which is why we didn't call it out before, but sequentially, you're seeing that come on.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Nicholas with William Blair.

Andrew Nicholas

I wanted to ask one on AccuLynx. Recognize there's probably not a whole lot you can say likelihood of closing or the timing. But I was curious if you could speak to what that development does to your near-term capital allocation priorities? And then any detail you could share on how that business has kind of progressed over the past year plus from a size or growth perspective to the extent that you can share it?

Lee Shavel

Thanks, Andrew. Yes, there's not a lot more that we can say beyond what we mentioned in our comments beforehand. But with regard to capital priorities, there is no meaningful change in our capital priorities. We will continue to focus on investing in the business, looking at opportunities that we think could create value for our shareholders, and returning capital to our shareholders. Those remain our primary capital priorities.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ashish Sabadra with RBC Capital Markets.

Unknown Analyst

This is Bill Chi on for Ashish Sabadra. Maybe just wanted to follow up on the growth acceleration in organic I think you guys have called out in press release just some price increases and also strong price realization as well. I guess how should we think about on that current environment? Are you still seeing, I guess, good value, especially with the AI adoption tours?

Lee Shavel

Thanks. Let me start off and Elizabeth may supplement that I think that while we are, as we described, observing that softer insurance market, one of the elements that is important is that our carriers focus on emerging risks is higher than it's been in a while, focusing on AI risks, in particular, but a variety of other risks that they're dealing with. And as a consequence, the appetite for our data sets and tools specific to those risks has been elevated. So for instance, we are providing an AI litigation tracker. We're providing AI exposure mapping.

We have a U.S. data center database, those are examples of where we are seeing strong engagement with our customers in addition to the adoption of the tools that we're describing. So those data sets are important and also our engagement with our clients in emerging issues, conversations where we, with individual carriers, have a discussion on AI, cyber or quantum computing and we'll have 50 or 60 underwriters from that carrier that want to participate in it.

So I would say that despite the soft environment, the counter is that their perception and concerns about risk and the value of our data and our insights has been driving a more pronounced delivery and perception of the value of what we're doing. And this is the classic role that we play, gathering those data sets and sharing perspectives across the industry that I think has served to enhance their perception of the importance and the value of what we're doing, and that's translating into both the adoption of those specific data sets contributions of more data, both in terms of the digital media forensics where we referred to the database is now 800 million images up from 600 million, increasing contributions of excess and surplus data sets on $36 billion in premium versus $18 billion. And that overall is and we believe will continue to support the growth expectations that we have.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Surinder Thind with Jefferies.

Surinder Thind

Lee, could you maybe provide a bit more color on the client that tried to in-house some functionality? Maybe what was that functionality? Why did they maybe think they could succeed? And then maybe why were they not successful? And then ultimately, like how prevalent is that mindset at this point?

Lee Shavel

Sure, Surinder. I'll start off. So this is a large client. And I think you -- it's probably typical of a lot of our clients who are interested in understanding how to apply AI to a variety of applications. In this case, it was in evaluating the risk of fraud within their business. And so on the basis of applying the technology to internal data sets, they found that the lift or the outcomes that they were receiving was not as good and as impactful as it was with the broad industry data sets that we're able to provide to them.

And they then came back to us and entered into a significant multiyear contract because those data sets are critical. And I think we see that in a variety of instances. There's a natural tendency to understand what AI can do, but a lot of our clients are coming back and saying, your data is critical to realizing a return because it gets broader, it is better integrated, we can provide an oncology, a semantic layer for how those data sets relate that we are doing through our MCPs and through other calibration techniques to enable AI to utilize that data much more efficiently.

And if it works on a single client data set than it works for all of them. That's the value of the breadth of the industry data and the quality and the organization, the calibration of those data sets on a consistent basis.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Steinerman with JPMorgan.

Andrew Steinerman

It's Andrew. Your team spoke about continued longer sales cycle today. I know that's kind of a continuation I was wondering if that dynamic is due to insurers trying to figure out the AI usage to governance rights around the contracted Teradata they need. And if that's the case, once that sales or renewal happens, would it be with a larger spend a larger bundle with Verisk, so putting that together, is it this dynamic kind of a nice setup for a favorable 2027 organic revenue growth momentum as you work through this current sales pipeline?

Lee Shavel

Andrew, thanks. I think there's a lot of truth in what you're describing. I would say generally that with AI, the demand for data is broader and deeper than it has in one way to describe it is that historically or traditionally we're delivering data sets to an underwriter or a claims professional and they're focused on a specific function. The ability to integrate those data sets is now accelerated and enhanced by applying AI to it enabling a broader integration for that particular function.

There is certainly an element of understanding what that means for the individual. And the human continues to be at the center of the -- in the loop on those functions but the carriers want to understand if we are integrating those data sets what the impact is? Are they comfortable that they can explain to a regulator how this is being used the reliability of that outcome, there are elements in terms of their contributory data and how that is used and integrated into the process. But I think this is a learning experience and a deliberate testing experience that I do think will open up the doors for a broader use of our data sets.

We've always said that our most sophisticated clients use a broader set of our data than the less sophisticated clients. AI is effectively increasing the data sophistication of all of our clients, but that has to go through a very careful calibration as the industry is adjusting to these data sets. The underlying premise of your question, I think, is absolutely true.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of David Motemaden with Evercore ISI.

David Motemaden

Lee, you spoke about increased growth in the license of AI-related solutions across the business lines. I'm just wondering if you could just highlight where that's most pronounced in terms of product? And if it is more of the larger insurers as opposed to the smaller insurers, like maybe a split between your top 25 and others.

And then relatedly, Elizabeth, I think you had called out that some of the transactional growth outperformance was due to data overages. I'm assuming that that's not driven by any AI-related data overages that might persist, but maybe you could just give some color there.

Lee Shavel

Sure. David, let me start off with the first part of your question. In terms of the growth in the AI licenses, and I want to emphasize that, that's just one dimension of the growth or the revenue opportunity that we have. The other dimension is as we've integrated this, the value of the data sets and our ability to capture that value through pricing is another dimension.

But going specifically to your question, I would say that where we are seeing currently the strongest growth in the AI licenses is in some of the midsized players that have more scope, I think, to move more quickly, for instance, on the claims side, on the contractor front, we're seeing the strong growth from a license perspective but we are also seeing a high level of engagement from carriers, larger carriers that are using their products and we're engaged in broader enterprise licensing agreements that take a little bit longer to make certain events when they're rolling that out across an enterprise of thousands of claims professionals that they understand how it works.

So currently, some of those smaller, more nimble players are able to adopt those, that's what's driving it. But we anticipate that, that will broaden and strengthen as we bring in larger scale carriers. And I think there is a dimension of that on the underwriting side as well, where we have some early adopters that tend to be smaller, but our largest carriers are very engaged, and we're working that through in this deliberate process that we're exploring. And that's something that we think will bear out over the next 12 to 24 months.

Elizabeth Mann

And then, David, just to close the loop on the transactional piece and the data overages, that was not specifically AI related. That is just a contract structure related number of data pulls versus somebody's contract structure?

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jason Haas with Wells Fargo.

Jason Haas

Outside of the onetime transactional revenue that you're not expecting to repeat. Is there anything else you're seeing in the business today that causes you to think that organic growth could slow in 4Q?

Elizabeth Mann

Thanks, Jason. Nothing to -- It would really be particularly on the transactional side, the things we've called out before, volume of weather-related activity at this point in the in the season, it's unlikely to have a major catalyst on that side. And then again, the property softer market and just a number of transactions taking place there.

Lee Shavel

Yes. The fundamental drivers of our organic growth remain very much in place.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Mueller with Baird.

Jeffrey Meuler

I was hoping you could give some more detail on the early signs of the AI productivity gains. I think you characterized it as, just -- how big of an opportunity are you viewing it as what are the big expense buckets for you where you see opportunity? And then just how you think about if those savings continue to build continuing to maybe reinvest them versus flowing through some of those savings as incremental margin expansion?

Elizabeth Mann

Yes. Thanks for the question, Jeff. Yes, as we highlighted, some good AI productivity gains, we had an example in the life business and the 30% productivity there, but we're seeing it kind of across a number of different places in our portfolio. So we do see opportunity for efficiency and cost savings going forward. I think as we balance those opportunities for cost savings against the opportunities that we have talked about on the product side.

And I think we will choose to reinvest some of that opportunity while continuing to deliver overall efficiency. So it will be a combination of operating leverage and investment to be consistent with our Investor Day targets of 25 to 75 basis points of margin expansion.

Lee Shavel

And Jeff, I appreciate the question was focused on the internal efficiencies. And I think we are seeing those. We're experiencing them in a variety of areas. We expect those to continue to develop. In particular, I think we've talked about the use of AI to improve data ingestion and calibration within our systems. We talked about that in E&S, but I think that's generally true across our businesses.

But the thing I want to broaden out is, I think the efficiencies that we see from an industry perspective and our ability to deliver those by applying our data sets particularly against agentic applications is a significant opportunity for us to deliver value to the industry. And that is something that's in process. I just got back from the Singapore International Reinsurance Conference.

And one of those applications for AI and our ability to improve transactional efficiency is through our white space platform. We just have brought on two very significant brokers in addition to our existing brokers in the Asia Pacific marketplace, that are going to be utilizing the platform within Singapore for that business that builds on our success within London and enables us to deliver greater efficiency in distribution. And in conversations with both carriers and brokers in that marketplace, the enthusiasm for the ability to take a historically very process-oriented data entry process and automate that and also connect it on a global basis is a tremendous, tremendous benefit that is driving continued adoption.

So I think that's just one example of where those efficiencies as we're able to deliver that data more efficiently and against an genic applications in underwriting and claims and distribution that we're excited about what we can accomplish.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of George Tong with Goldman Sachs.

Keen Fai Tong

You mentioned growing usage through the Claude MCP connector and expanded distribution through Microsoft and Amazon, is that access included in existing subscriptions or separately licensed or priced based on consumption and agent-based usage become an incremental revenue stream?

Elizabeth Mann

Yes, George, thanks for the question. For the time being, that is included in our existing, primarily our core line contract, where the data is coming from. It is and will continue to be a driver of the strong price realization in those contracts. So you're seeing the benefit in that way. We've reserved the right in the future as we understand the usage and as carriers start to pick up to charge separately for it. But at the moment, it's monetized through price increase.

Lee Shavel

And that's one specific example of that. We do have other areas in Claims and in Underwriting where we have explicit licenses for the data sets. And that's generally the direction that we have been moving as our clients become more familiar with the value that they can achieve through that access. But I also would say that two MCPs that we had released with Anthropic, if those were the starting point we expect to be able to provide MCPs for other applications and other data sets that will continue to expand our ability to deliver that deliver data through that channel.

Operator

Your last question comes from the line of Henry Hayden with Red firm.

Henry Hayden

I wanted to follow up on the price realization that you've been calling out for a few quarters now. If you could give us any incremental color around the drivers of that given it seems to largely be the discretionary component of your pricing, how we should think about the potential interplay of that with longer sales cycles? So when those deals do come through, should we expect them to be particularly strong. And then if I could just squeeze in a follow-up on that. How should we think about the penetration of those renewals within the client base just as we keep an eye to the sustainability of those increases complementing growth?

Lee Shavel

Yes. Thanks, Henry. This is the one and I'm going to turn to my colleagues are because I think when we think about the pricing and renewals, and where we have had the strongest dialogue, it has been around the core lines reimagine that we've talked about in terms of how we've delivered additional value on how our clients are perceiving and how that's played out from a renewal standpoint. So I'm sorry, maybe you can provide some perspective there.

Saurabh Khemka

Yes, absolutely. So As we mentioned, the realization has come from us delivering superior value to our customers, and we've done that through coal lines for Imagine -- we've talked about the new customer modules. We're on track to deliver 25 new modules this year. And as the initial phase of that program is coming to an end, we are actually finding new opportunities to continue innovating and provide more value. So whether it's incorporating AI into our new platform or the workshops that Lee talked about are leading on the regulatory front and the E&S data. We continue to see a lot of room for us to provide value and as we provide value, gain that realization from our customers.

Lee Shavel

And one thing I'd add, and I've heard directly from a number of CEOs where I've had conversations about that process. And we've consistently gotten the feedback that the transparency and the clarity of our pricing and where we are looking for increases have been very value oriented. And that has been a real improvement that we've been able to make over the past three to four years, making certain that they understand where we've invested, how their teams are utilizing the data and where we're adding value, which I think just facilitates our ability to have broader conversations, particularly in this environment, in what we are doing and how it applies in this environment.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.