퀄컴(QCOM) 2026 회계연도 4분기 실적 발표 콘퍼런스콜: 데이터센터 램프업 및 오토모티브 성장

핵심 요약

• 퀄컴은 2026 회계연도 4분기 Non-GAAP 매출 104억 달러, Non-GAAP EPS 2.17달러를 기록했다고 발표했다. QCT 부문 매출은 전 분기 대비 6% 증가한 90억 달러에 달하며 가이던스 상단을 기록했다.
• QCT 오토모티브 부문은 전년 동기 대비 89% 증가하며 사상 처음으로 분기 매출 20억 달러를 달성했다. 퀄컴은 2026 회계연도 말 기준 오토모티브 연간 환산 매출이 약 80억 달러에 달하며 회계연도를 마감했다.
• 경영진은 2027 회계연도 데이터센터 매출 목표치인 50억 달러를 재확인했다. 1분기 데이터센터 매출은 6억 5,000만 달러를 넘어설 것으로 예상되며, 2027 회계연도 말에는 연간 환산 매출이 약 70억 달러에 이를 것으로 전망된다.
• 퀄컴은 오토모티브, IoT, 데이터센터 전반의 QCT 비핸드셋 부문 매출이 2027 회계연도에 전년 대비 60% 이상 성장해 QCT 전체 매출의 50% 이상을 차지할 것으로 예상하고 있다.
• 애플, 화웨이, 트랜션과의 장기 라이선스 계약이 QTL의 매출 런레이트 변화 없이 체결되었다. 다음 주요 갱신 주기는 2030 회계연도에 시작될 것으로 예상된다.
• 2027 회계연도 1분기 가이던스로는 매출 104억~112억 달러, Non-GAAP EPS 2.15~2.35달러를 제시했다.

주요 재무 실적

사업 및 운영 실적

데이터센터

퀄컴의 데이터센터 사업은 본격적인 초기 매출 확대 국면에 진입하고 있다. 1분기 매출은 하이퍼스케일러 고객사 2곳에 대한 맞춤형 반도체 출하에 힘입어 6억 5,000만 달러를 넘어설 것으로 예상된다. 경영진은 2027 회계연도 목표치인 50억 달러의 대부분이 아마존을 비롯한 해당 고객사들과의 맞춤형 AI 가속기 계약에서 발생할 것이며, 커넥티비티 부문이 그다음으로 큰 비중을 차지할 것이라고 밝혔다.

퀄컴은 데이터센터 매출이 2027 회계연도 내내 확대되어 연말에는 연간 환산 매출이 약 70억 달러에 이를 것으로 예상하고 있다. 경영진은 수요보다는 공급 측면의 제약이 50억 달러 목표치를 웃도는 잠재적 상승 여력을 제한할 가능성이 높다고 언급했다.

퀄컴은 2029 회계연도 데이터센터 매출 목표치인 150억 달러를 유지했다. 해당 목표에는 맞춤형 반도체, 커넥티비티 확장, CPU 및 상용 AI 가속기가 포함될 것으로 예상된다. 아울러 회사는 AWS와의 전략적 계약을 통해 향후 10년간 최대 600억 달러 규모의 잠재적 매출 기회가 창출될 수 있다고 언급했다.

퀄컴은 자사의 AI250 고대역폭 연산 반도체가 연구소 테스트에서 비트당 약 0.3피코줄을 기록해 설계 목표치였던 약 0.5피코줄을 상회하는 에너지 효율성을 달성하고 있다고 밝혔다. 경영진은 AI 디코드 워크로드가 고객들의 관심이 높은 분야라고 설명했다.

오토모티브 및 IoT

4분기 오토모티브 매출은 퀄컴의 5세대 컴퓨팅 플랫폼용 통합 모듈 채택에 힘입어 20억 달러에 달했다. 5세대 스냅드래곤 디지털 섀시의 상업용 출하는 9월 마감 분기 중에 시작되었으며, 2027 회계연도에도 지속적으로 확대될 것으로 예상된다.

경영진은 오토모티브 부문의 성장이 주로 수주 물량의 매출 전환과 반도체 탑재량 증가에 기인한 것이라고 설명했다. 퀄컴은 5세대 플랫폼의 반도체 탑재량이 3세대 플랫폼 대비 8배에 달한다고 밝혔다.

IoT 매출은 전년 동기 대비 4% 증가한 19억 달러를 기록했다. 산업용, 네트워킹, 로보틱스 제품군은 20% 성장했으나, 소비자용 제품에 영향을 미친 메모리 제약으로 인해 일부 상쇄되었다. 드래곤윙 IQ10 로보틱스 프로세서는 상업적 양산 확대를 시작할 예정이다.

핸드셋 및 라이선스

QCT 핸드셋 매출은 51억 달러를 기록했다. 경영진은 6월 마감 분기가 중국 안드로이드 매출의 저점이었으며, 이후 9월과 12월 분기에는 전 분기 대비 성장을 보였다고 밝혔다.

퀄컴은 2027년(달력 기준) 전 세계 핸드셋 출하량이 정체되거나 감소할 것으로 예상하고 있다. 회사는 사업 계획에 애플의 모뎀 전환 영향이 이미 반영되어 있다고 밝혔다. 삼성전자의 경우, 경영진은 과거 기준치였던 50%에 비해 향후 갤럭시 세대에 대한 신규 계획 기준 점유율을 70% 이상으로 제시했다.

라이선스 부문에서 퀄컴은 애플, 화웨이, 트랜션과의 장기 계약을 완료했다. 경영진은 이번 갱신을 통해 QTL의 로열티 요율과 매출 런레이트가 유지되었으며, 단기 일정에서 주요 핸드셋 OEM과의 계약 갱신 일정이 해소되었다고 밝혔다.

커넥티비티 및 인프라

스페이스X는 미국 내 스타링크 모바일의 전국 단위 지상 5G 네트워크 구축을 지원하기 위해 퀄컴을 선정했다. 퀄컴은 무선 반도체, 대규모 다중입출력(Massive MIMO) 기술, 디지털 유닛 가속기 및 레이어 1 소프트웨어를 공급할 예정이다. 배치는 2027년에 시작되어 2028 회계연도부터 보다 의미 있는 매출 기여가 나타날 것으로 예상된다.

퀄컴은 400기가비트, 800기가비트, 1.6테라비트 제품을 포함한 광 커넥티비티 포트폴리오도 확장하고 있다. AWS용 커넥티비티 출하량이 확대될 것으로 예상되며, 두 번째 광 커넥티비티 고객사도 확보했다.

경영진 가이던스

핸드셋 매출 감소 전망은 안드로이드 부문의 지속적인 성장이 애플 제품의 매출 감소로 상쇄된 점을 반영한다. 경영진은 데이터센터의 QCT 편입과 AI 가속기 및 CPU 매출 확대에 앞선 선행 투자로 인해 1분기 QCT EBT 마진이 약 3%포인트 감소할 것이라고 밝혔다. 회사는 장기 QCT EBT 마진 목표치인 30%를 유지했다.

퀄컴은 반도체 원가 상승을 상쇄하기 위해 가격 인상을 단행하고 있다. 경영진은 그 효과가 2027 회계연도 2분기부터 나타나기 시작해 회계연도 하반기 QCT 매출총이익률에 온전히 반영될 것으로 예상한다. 데이터센터 믹스를 제외할 경우, 기준 매출총이익률은 과거 범위였던 48%~50%의 하단 수준으로 회복될 것으로 전망하고 있다.

리스크 및 주요 주목 요인

• 맞춤형 데이터센터 반도체는 매출이 확대됨에 따라 QCT 영업이익률을 뒷받침하겠지만 매출총이익률은 희석시킬 것으로 예상된다.
• 2027 회계연도 QCT 핸드셋 매출에는 애플 제품 매출 감소세가 지속적으로 반영될 예정이다.
• 경영진은 글로벌 핸드셋 시장이 정체되거나 감소할 것으로 예상하는 한편, 메모리 가격과 공급 제약이 핸드셋 및 소비자용 IoT 수요에 계속 영향을 미칠 것으로 보고 있다.
• 퀄컴은 공급 제약으로 인해 2027 회계연도 목표치를 웃도는 데이터센터 매출의 잠재적 상승 여력이 제한될 것으로 예상하고 있다.
• AI 가속기 및 CPU 플랫폼에 대한 데이터센터 투자가 매출 확대에 앞서 선행 집행되면서 단기 QCT 마진에 부담으로 작용하고 있다.
• 가격 인상은 반도체 원가 상승을 상쇄하기 위한 조치이지만, 마진 개선 효과는 2027 회계연도 하반기에 이르러서야 온전히 나타날 것으로 예상된다.

애널리스트 질의응답 주요 내용

애널리스트들은 데이터센터 사업의 확장 속도와 수익성에 큰 관심을 기울였다. 경영진은 하이퍼스케일러 고객사 2곳이 2027 회계연도 목표치인 50억 달러의 대부분을 차지할 것이며, 2028 및 2029 회계연도까지 주요 기여자로 남을 것이라고 밝혔다. 또한 추가적인 가속기, CPU 및 맞춤형 반도체 관련 기회가 향후 성장을 뒷받침할 수 있다고 설명했다.

마진과 관련해 퀄컴은 맞춤형 반도체가 영업이익률 개선에는 기여하겠지만 매출총이익률은 희석시킬 것임을 재확인했다. 경영진은 제품 가격 인상이 2분기부터 반도체 원가 부담을 일부 상쇄할 것으로 예상했다.

핸드셋 수요 관련 질문은 최근 안드로이드 부문의 성장이 가격 인상을 앞둔 선구매 수요를 반영한 것인지에 집중되었다. 퀄컴은 유통 채널 재고가 여전히 낮은 수준을 유지하고 있으며, 가격 인상은 주로 신규 플랫폼과 기기를 통해 적용되고 있어 선구매 효과 가능성은 낮다고 설명했다.

경영진은 오토모티브 부문의 성장 가속화 역시 선구매보다는 반도체 탑재량 증가와 수주 물량의 매출 전환에 기인한다고 설명했다. 아울러 단기적인 데이터센터 투자 및 부문별 보고 방식 변경에도 불구하고 장기 QCT EBT 마진 목표치는 30%로 유지된다고 강조했다.

실적 발표 콘퍼런스콜 전문

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Qualcomm Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded November 4, 2026. The playback number for today's call is (877) 660-6853. International callers, please dial (201) 612-7415. The playback reservation number is 13762625.

I would now like to turn the call over to Brett Simpson, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Simpson, please go ahead.

Brett Simpson

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Today's call will include prepared remarks by Cristiano Amon and Akash Palkhiwala. In addition, Alex Rogers will join the question-and-answer session. You can access our earnings release and a slide presentation that accompany this call on our Investor Relations website. In addition, this call is being webcast on qualcomm.com, and a replay will be available on our website later today.

During the call today, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G, and you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. We will also make forward-looking statements, including projections and estimates of future events, business or industry trends or business or financial results. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-K, which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements.

And now to comments from Qualcomm's President and Chief Executive Officer, Cristiano Amon.

Cristiano Amon

Thank you, Brett, and good afternoon, everyone. In fiscal Q4, we delivered non-GAAP revenues of $10.4 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share of $2.17. QCT revenues of $9 billion, up 6% sequentially, were at the high end of our guidance. Licensing business revenues were $1.3 billion. For fiscal '26, we reported non-GAAP revenues of $43.2 billion and QCT revenues of $37.2 billion, highlighted by year-over-year revenue growth of 24% across combined automotive and IoT.

We closed fiscal '26 with many of the uncertainties that have been weighing on our business now behind us, specifically QTL license renewals, the loss of Apple as a customer and the negative impact of memory pricing on the size of the mobile industry. Regarding the latter, the June quarter marked the low point for our China Android business, and we have seen sequential growth this quarter. Going forward, our plan assumes global handset units will remain flat to down in calendar '27. The timing and shape of the Apple modem transition is fully incorporated in how we're planning the business and is well understood at this point. We also renewed important QTL licensing agreements, including Apple and Huawei.

Now we enter fiscal '27 as a broader, more diversified Qualcomm with strong momentum and significant opportunities ahead. First, non-handset revenues in QCT will grow by more than 60% year-over-year. Second, our data center business begins its ramp with revenues expected to exceed $650 million in the December quarter. Third, automotive revenues reached an $8 billion annualized run rate exiting fiscal '26, $1 billion ahead of expectations. Fourth, we established a solid foundation in how agentic AI transforms the edge and leads to new product categories for Qualcomm. And finally, we reached a landmark agreement with SpaceX to power their nationwide terrestrial 5G network in the U.S.

Our technology investments are aligned with the direction the industry is moving. We've made key acquisitions to build on our hardware and software capabilities as we evolve into a full stack semiconductor company. We announced strategic agreements with industry leaders, including Meta, Amazon, BMW and Stellantis with more to come, and our design win pipeline across the company grew 70% year-over-year. This is the backdrop that positions Qualcomm to deliver on our fiscal '29 targets of $40 billion in non-handset revenues with over $15 billion coming from data center.

Now I will focus on the areas that are top of mind for investors. Let me start with licensing, where we reached a milestone this quarter. We're extremely pleased with our renewals with Apple, Huawei and Transsion. These agreements provide stability for QTL as we move to the 6G era. They also demonstrate the enduring value of our IP and patent portfolio. And just as in every prior generation, we expect our inventions to be foundational to 6G. Importantly, our QTL revenue run rate remains unchanged. The next renewal cycle begins in fiscal 2030 and runs through fiscal 2033. Licensing gives Qualcomm a durable, highly profitable foundation as we scale our next set of growth opportunities.

Data center is another area where we made considerable progress this quarter. It's one of our top strategic priorities and a major focus of my own time as we build this business around long-term customer relationships, a broad product portfolio and an open software ecosystem. AWS is a good example. Our agreement spans multiple product generations across custom silicon for AI inference and optical connectivity. Custom accelerators began shipping in October and our connectivity solutions with AWS ramp later this month. We also secured a second optical connectivity customer. With Qualcomm High Bandwidth Compute, our AI250 silicon is exceeding our expectations for power efficiency and bandwidth and early yields are on track. These results are generating significant interest from AI customers and memory partners, and we added 2 major prospects in the quarter.

Our Dragonfly C1000 CPU remains on track to ship to Meta as scheduled, and we engaged with a large new potential customer. We're optimistic about the opportunities we have today with our high-speed connectivity solutions such as optical DSPs, and we are investing in bringing optics directly alongside our XPUs and custom silicon as we demonstrated with Lumentum and Corning at ECOC 2026. In software, our full stack integration with Modular is progressing well. Modular is delivering impressive performance as an open multi-vendor stack running on NVIDIA and AMD GPUs, Amazon Trainium and Google TPU. Optimization for Qualcomm accelerators is also underway. Last month, Modular made the full MAX source code available, and this builds on open sourcing the Mojo language in August. We're also excited that Modular Cloud went live during the September quarter and is already processing tens of trillions of tokens per month. We'll share more details soon about how our ecosystem partners are using Modular Cloud.

Our data center business is off to a strong start. We are reiterating our $5 billion revenue target for fiscal '27 with healthy order coverage supporting continued revenue growth in fiscal '28. In automotive, we exit fiscal '26 at an annualized revenue run rate of approximately $8 billion, well above the $7 billion expectations we provided last quarter. Additionally, fiscal fourth quarter automotive revenue grew nearly 90% year-over-year. Commercial shipments of our fifth-generation Snapdragon Digital Chassis began in the September quarter and will continue to ramp in fiscal 2027. As a reminder, this platform is our most advanced to date, delivering a significant increase in performance and represents our largest generation-to-generation content increase in Qualcomm's history.

Our products also evolve from SoCs to integrated compute modules. Customer demand remains strong across our portfolio, and Qualcomm is positioned to become one of the largest automotive semiconductor suppliers by revenue in fiscal 2027. In robotics, our premium tier Dragonwing IQ10 processor is set to begin its commercial ramp and continues to generate strong customer momentum. During the quarter, ecosystem partners demonstrated AI models of up to 80 billion parameters running directly on IQ10. In fiscal 2027, we will continue to expand the technologies and capabilities across our robotics platforms. As we anticipated, the proliferation and capability of AI agents is increasing rapidly, and we're seeing growing consumer adoption as a result. A prime example is Meta Muse, which reached over 10 million downloads in just 40 days.

We're also seeing more companies designing experiences and devices around agents. This includes agentic smartphones, smart glasses and other new personal AI form factors. Meta's audio AI glasses, Muse Charm, Gemini eyewear and Alibaba's Qwen AI glasses are recent examples of intelligent wearables with more to come over the next year. The smartphone is an essential device for agentic experiences as it's the device that knows people best. It's always with them and has their context, preferences and permissions. The device is also evolving to simultaneously support what the user is doing and what agents are doing on the user's behalf. Delivering these experiences will require greater computing performance, power efficiency and connectivity, which play directly to Qualcomm's strengths. More of our customers are already building agentic features into their flagship devices, and we're pleased to share that the world's first agentic smartphones were launched on Snapdragon.

Heading into fiscal 2027, we're pleased with our premium tier Android share position, and we expect it to strengthen as the transition to agentic smartphones drive an increase in computing content per device. For perspective, leading AI companies are targeting smartphones by 2028, capable of running 100 billion parameter models locally with an all-day battery life. Reaching this goal will require a step function change in on-device compute performance. Finally, I'm very proud to share that SpaceX selected Qualcomm to power Starlink Mobile's nationwide terrestrial 5G network in the U.S.

Starlink is building one of the most ambitious new cellular networks in the country, and our Dragonwing infrastructure platforms will bring together advanced massive MIMO purpose-built RAN processing and commercial-grade Layer 1 software. Under a multiyear agreement, deployment begins in 2027 and is expected to be one of the largest 5G deployments in the United States. Together, we have an opportunity to advance United States wireless leadership, starting with 5G and the convergence of satellite and terrestrial connectivity. This new architecture establishes a foundation for next-generation connectivity and network intelligence. This is a significant win for our infrastructure business and the beginning of a strategic relationship with tremendous potential.

Before I close, I would like to briefly address our litigation with Arm. We're gratified that the jury found Arm breached its long-standing Architectural License Agreement, ALA, with Qualcomm, failed to honor its commitments, intentionally acted to disrupt Qualcomm's business and engage in unfair competition, both as a supplier and a competitor. Together with Qualcomm's prior court victory, this outcome further exposes Arm's intentions to harm Qualcomm and its ecosystem. This outcome is a victory for innovation and competition, and we remain focused on developing and delivering industry-leading semiconductor products, including our Oryon CPUs to customers and consumers worldwide from mobile to data center.

In summary, we entered fiscal 2027 having made important progress against the ambitious growth plan we outlined at Investor Day. Since then, we've signed major strategic agreements and positioned our data center business to ramp at scale. We remain focused on execution as we build the next chapter for Qualcomm, and we're confident in delivering on our fiscal 2029 targets.

With that, I will turn it over to Akash.

Akash Palkhiwala

Thank you, Cristiano, and good afternoon, everyone. Let me begin with our results for the fourth fiscal quarter. We delivered non-GAAP revenues of $10.4 billion and EPS of $2.17 with revenues at the high end of our guidance. QTL revenues of $1.3 billion and EBT margin of 70% were in line with our expectations. QCT revenues of $9 billion were at the high end of our guidance and EBT margin of 24% was in line with expectations. QCT handset revenues of $5.1 billion reflected the impact of industry-wide memory dynamics on the global smartphone market.

In QCT automotive, we delivered our first $2 billion revenue quarter with 89% year-over-year growth, driven by the growing adoption of integrated module products for our fifth-generation compute platforms. QCT IoT revenues of $1.9 billion were up 4% year-over-year, led by our industrial, networking and robotics category of products, which grew 20% versus the year ago period, offset by the impact of memory constraints on consumer products. Total non-handset revenues in QCT, including automotive and IoT, grew 36% year-over-year, underscoring the continued execution of our growth initiatives. Lastly, we returned $2 billion to stockholders, including $1 billion each in share repurchases and dividends.

Before turning to guidance, I'd like to provide an update on a couple of factors reflected in our financial performance. First, in QTL, we have now completed long-term license agreements with Apple, Huawei and Transsion and do not have any upcoming license renewals with major handset OEMs for the next several years. Following these agreements, QTL revenue run rate and long-term revenue forecast remains unchanged. Second, as we outlined last quarter, we are implementing price increases across our products to reflect the higher semiconductor input costs. We expect the full benefit of these actions to be reflected in QCT gross margins in the second half of fiscal '27. Finally, we're excited that fiscal '27 marks an important milestone for our data center business as we transition from customer engagements to revenue generation.

Our first fiscal quarter guidance reflects the commencement of shipments to 2 hyperscaler customers for custom silicon engagement. As we have discussed previously, we expect these custom silicon engagements to be accretive to QCT operating margins but dilutive to gross margins. These factors are reflected in our fourth quarter performance and first quarter outlook. I'll now provide our guidance for the first fiscal quarter. We are forecasting revenues of $10.4 billion to $11.2 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $2.15 to $2.35. In QTL, we estimate revenues of $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion and EBT margins of 72% to 76%, reflecting normal seasonal trends. In QCT, we expect revenues of $9 billion to $9.6 billion and EBT margins of 20% to 22%. Please note that QCT EBT margin guidance includes an impact of 3 percentage points due to the addition of Data Center in the QCT segment starting in fiscal '27 and reflects investments for AI accelerator and CPU platform ahead of revenue ramp.

Importantly, this segmentation change has no impact on total company guidance or on our long-term QCT EBT margin target of 30%. We forecast QCT handset revenues to decline by a mid-single-digit percentage sequentially as growth in Android revenues is offset by the continued ramp down in Apple product revenue. In QCT Data Center, we expect revenues of greater than $650 million, driven by commencement of shipments to custom silicon customers. We expect combined QCT Automotive and IoT revenues to be approximately flat sequentially. Lastly, we anticipate non-GAAP operating expenses to be approximately $2.8 billion in the quarter.

Before I conclude my prepared remarks, I'd like to outline the progress in the execution of our growth strategy. In fiscal '27, we expect to achieve 2 key milestones for revenue diversification. First, non-handset revenues in QCT across automotive, IoT and data center will grow by greater than 60% on a year-over-year basis starting in the first fiscal quarter. Second, non-handset revenues will represent more than 50% of QCT revenues in the fiscal year. In data center, we're executing to the revenue targets we outlined at Investor Day, including $5 billion in fiscal '27 and $15 billion in fiscal '29. We expect Data Center revenues to scale throughout fiscal '27, exiting the year at a $7 billion run rate. We're also expanding our customer engagement pipeline across additional global hyperscalers, including the long-term strategic agreement with Amazon Web Services with a potential revenue opportunity of up to $60 billion over the next 10 years.

During the quarter, we also successfully validated our high-bandwidth compute technology in lab trials, marking a key milestone in delivering an innovative AI inference accelerator solution designed to address the memory bandwidth challenge in data centers. We are also well positioned to lead other key industry trends, including the transition to agentic AI in consumer devices and the adoption of physical AI across automotive, industrial and robotics. Finally, we would like to thank our employees for their exceptional execution and innovation throughout fiscal '26. Their commitment enables us to deliver industry-leading products to customers around the world.

This concludes our prepared remarks. Back to you, Brett.

Brett Simpson

Thank you, Akash. Operator, we are now ready for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from the line of Joshua Buchalter with TD Cowen.

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Joshua Buchalter

Maybe to start, I mean, last quarter, you guys kind of telegraphed the gross margin step down that was expected from the ASIC business starting to ramp. How should we think about it through the rest of the year, though? Because just the simple math of having to get to your $7 billion run rate exiting the year implies the data center business should grow close to 3x. Like should we expect gross margins to continue to trend down through the year as a result of the larger data center business and this being the year where custom silicon is ramping aggressively?

Akash Palkhiwala

Josh, it's Akash. So let me kind of frame the overall gross margin framework for the company. As you know, we mentioned this last quarter, we are implementing price increases to reflect the higher semiconductor cost across the industry. And so we start realizing the benefit of that in our second fiscal quarter, and we'll see the full benefit of that show up in second half of '27. So the way it plays out is as these price increases come into effect, our baseline gross margin goes back to our historical range of 48% to 50% at the low end of that range.

And then separately, on your question on data center, we -- as we said previously, we expect that to be something that is accretive to our operating margins, but dilutive to gross margins. And so that calibrates the gross margin down from the framework I just outlined. So that's no different than what we told you last quarter, and we're executing on the plan.

Joshua Buchalter

And then maybe for my follow-up, it's good to see the HBC demos that you outlined earlier this week. Can you maybe speak to what type of workloads you're seeing the most traction for your accelerator parts initially? And then any updates on the commercial traction as we think about that? I think I believe that's supposed to start contributing and ramping in the fiscal second half of this year, which is kind of only a couple of quarters away at this point.

Cristiano Amon

Thanks, Josh. This is Cristiano. Look, we're very happy with the progress we're making in HBC. We're actually doing better than what we said at Investor Day. We had a target on the design to about 0.5 picojoules per bit. We're doing better in the lab. We're doing about 0.3. Yield is exceeding our expectations. So we're very happy with the technology progress. The main workloads that we're getting a lot of traction, it's incredibly efficient for decode. So decode, it's where we're getting a lot of the positive feedback.

We are engaged with customers. It changes the conversation when you have a PowerPoint to where you have silicon. And I think that continues to build confidence in the projections we have, not only for our custom ASIC, but for our merchant solutions coming up as we think about 2029 targets. What is also interesting, it now became part of the conversation of custom silicon with HBC, combining our HBC with some of our custom accelerators. So I would just say customer engagement is very positive.

Operator

The next question is from the line of Joseph Cardoso with JPMorgan.

Joseph Cardoso

Maybe just wanted to start off first with happy for you guys to give us the disclosure around how to think about the Data Center revenue ramp through the year. Maybe can you just provide a little bit more color on how you're thinking about your customers and how they get paced into that revenue ramp through the year itself? And then maybe the second aspect there, too, is, I think in the past, you've talked about 2 customers. So can you provide any color on the third customer here that's mentioned in the slide deck and how you're thinking about that getting intertwined in the guidance that you provided for this year? Or does the third customer ramp at another point? And then I do have a follow-up.

Akash Palkhiwala

Okay. Joseph, this is Akash. Let me address the financials and then Cristiano will comment on top -- on customer ramp. So for fiscal '27, we are looking at $5 billion revenue forecast that we've previously provided. We're guiding greater than $650 million in the first quarter, and we expect this revenue to ramp throughout the year as we go through the quarters and we'll exit the year at approximately a $7 billion exit rate going into '28. And so very happy with that. We will -- we're very well positioned from a supply perspective to execute on the $5 billion target. And really, we expect to be constrained by supply rather than demand for upsides beyond the $5 billion.

When you look at fiscal '28, we are looking at a $7 billion starting point. And then the customers that we have in '27 will extend to '28 as well, and it gives us really strong design win coverage to deliver very strong year-over-year growth in fiscal '28 as well. And then as you know, we have set a target of $15 billion for '29, which the customer engagements that Cristiano will outline right after this will position us very well to have a very high coverage of that number as well.

Cristiano Amon

Just real quick, Joseph, on the customer. The majority of the $5 billion in fiscal '27 comes from the 2 hyperscaler customers, so one of them being Amazon. I think the details of those were made public on the silicon plus connectivity. We do have another customer on the accelerator and an advanced discussion also on subsequent custom silicon that is part of the ramp towards '28 and '29. And we had said in the script, I think we have new prospects, especially on the CPU as well, I think, beyond Meta, and we're working with the customers.

Joseph Cardoso

Got it. I appreciate the color there. And then maybe just wanted to double-click on how you guys are framing handset revenue kind of exiting the year and into next year. Specifically, are you guys thinking about the growth here in terms of pricing layering on? I know it sounds like you're not expecting that to be material or to kind of tranche here over the subsequent quarters. But any more color you can help us think about how that pricing ends up influencing kind of the numbers here and the magnitude that we should be thinking about?

And then as a second question, just bigger picture. Obviously, when we look at the market data points on the handset market, it does seem like a contraction on kind of the memory prices has been something we've been witnessing through this year. Just any early thoughts on how you're thinking about the health of the market going into next year? I would appreciate it.

Akash Palkhiwala

Yes. Joseph, when you look at the overall handset market, '25 to '26, as -- like other industry analysts, we are projecting a low teens to mid-teens decline in the market. And then as we go into '27, we're thinking flat to slightly down for the handset market. And that's how we've always projected our business based on that assumption, and it's playing out consistent with expectations. Specifically for QCT handset revenue in Android, as you'll recall, we called the June quarter the bottom for QCT handset revenues and Android in China. What has happened since is we've seen revenue grow into September and December quarter. And so we are encouraged to see that. We've been conservative in our planning, and it's playing out exactly as we'd expected.

Operator

The next question is from the line of Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.

Joseph Moore

In terms of the royalty rate, you sort of said that the revenue run rate of QTL is unchanged. Is that the rate per device kind of similar as you look at these new contracts that you signed? Is there any change there? I assume that's right, but I just want to make sure.

Akash Palkhiwala

Yes, Joe, you should -- we obviously don't specifically talk about the details of the contract. They're confidential, but we are indicating that the revenue run rate remains the same, which you should take it as we were able to hold the rates and the royalties as we renewed the contracts.

Joseph Moore

Great. That's helpful. And then separately, on the Amazon deal, the warrant structure that you have there, do you view that as kind of the model for approaching other customers? Do you expect to have those types of warrant arrangements? Or is that unique to that specific relationship?

Akash Palkhiwala

Well, if you look at our general set of engagements across data center, the engagements are very traditional, normal kind of customer engagements in the semiconductor industry. The Amazon warrant structure is the exception. And as you know, the warrants that we issued were at-the-money warrants. So that's the only exception that we have at this point. And I think as we consider data center engagements going forward, we'll look at other structures on a deal-by-deal basis, but you should think of our framework as being aligned with the traditional semiconductor model.

Operator

The next question is from the line of Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

Timothy Arcuri

Akash, I was wondering if you can provide a little bit of maybe outlook into March. I know that you don't want to guide March. But I think last call, you thought that revenue would be up a little bit in March. You have easy comps for Apple into March. Android should be a little better. So can you just give us kind of just a sense on March would be great.

Akash Palkhiwala

Yes. Tim, you're right. We are not guiding March at this point. But let me make a few comments on the year that I hope are helpful. The first is, typically in previous years, December has been our strongest quarter in the year. Now with Apple product revenue ramp down, we do not expect December to be the high quarter for us. When you look at Data Center revenue, we've talked about kind of greater than $650 million in the first quarter, but we expect that to ramp as we go through the year. So that kind of defines our quarterly profile to some extent.

The third is when you look at '26 to '27, we expect auto IoT plus Data Center kind of non-handset revenue to grow by greater than 60%. So this revenue would more than offset the decline in Apple product revenue. And then finally, I think if you look at to fiscal '27, we expect handset now to be less than 50% of our total revenue. And so obviously, that's a key milestone for our diversification plan, and so we are happy to achieve that this year.

Timothy Arcuri

Got it. So you don't want to -- I just asked because last call, you did sort of say that March would be up. I guess you don't want to commit to that now.

Akash Palkhiwala

Yes. I think it's the reasonable framework that I think the way people have been looking at the business is a reasonable way of looking at it.

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.

Stacy Rasgon

I wanted to dig into your handset market outlook a little bit. I'm a little surprised still with the outlook for flat, especially given where we seem to be running at the end of the year, we're probably down more than 20% year-over-year in Q3 and things don't look better, don't look all that great in Q4. You also said your own China Android revenues were actually starting to grow in, I guess, June or September and December. You're also doing price increases. Like how do you know in the context of everything that's going on that, that's just not prebuys in front of the price increases in Android? I'm just struggling a little bit with the handset outlook. Any further color you could give on that would be super helpful for me.

Akash Palkhiwala

Sure, Stacy. So let me break it down into 2 parts. Let's talk about the market and then separately talk about QCT product revenue within Android. Overall market, as I said earlier, our view is that '25 to '26, it's down low to mid-teens. And then '26 to '27, we are projecting flat to down for the total market. So we think that's a prudent assumption as we plan given the uncertainty overall in the environment.

Specifically on QCT revenue, as you'll recall, the impact we saw in '26 was not just from the change in the market, but also channel inventory drawdown by OEMs. And we don't expect that impact in '27 because we've been following channel inventory. As you know, we get QTL information as well that we can check against. And so the channel inventory continues to be thin. And so we expect kind of QCT revenue really to be aligned with the overall market, and that's how we are projecting it going forward.

Cristiano Amon

Maybe, Stacy -- it's Cristiano, just to add another thing. One of the things we had said before. And that's kind of because of our long-term partnerships that we have with our customers. A lot of the price increases, the reason that they have a delta versus the cost increase, and we talk about prices become more effective in the numbers in the second half, we kind of been pricing newer platforms, new phones. So less subject to prebuying effect. And as Akash said, I think based on the data we're seeing in the market, June remains, I think, the bottom, I think, for China Android.

Stacy Rasgon

If I could ask one follow-up, please. You talked about Samsung market share framework, 75%. Is that still the framework share you have in mind for their -- your share with them in their next-generation platform that ramps in '27?

Cristiano Amon

Yes, absolutely. So here's how we think about the Samsung business. And here's a simple way to do it. We have -- we -- if you think about our business in the past, the baseline was 50%. This baseline is no longer 50%. It's north of 70% as we have been doing. When you think about future generations of Galaxy, this is how we plan our business, and I encourage all of you to plan the same way. That's the new baseline with Samsung. The other thing with Samsung is we're expanding the business. So traditionally, we were not the main supplier of all of their wearables and other devices, and you started to see that associated with the premium Galaxy design as well.

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Ben Reitzes with Melius Research.

Benjamin Reitzes

I'm switching my question because Stacy just asked on the Samsung. So I wanted to ask about automotive with regard to the beat in the quarter versus expectations. I know you're talking about IoT, automotive and data center all growing 60% for the year. But specifically in automotive, it was particularly strong versus expectations, and you are increasing some prices that you mentioned. Is there a chance that there was prebuying there in the automotive segment? Or do you feel like this kind of performance is sustainable throughout the year? And then I have a follow-up.

Cristiano Amon

No, very good. Thank you for the question. Look, we have been saying -- I believe we have said that in last quarter about the transition of our fifth generation platform. Just to give an idea, for cars that you see now on the road that with our third-generation platform, the silicon content increase versus the fifth generation is 8x. There's a lot of more -- there's a lot more compute content into the automotive. And most of our automotive growth is really share where the design win pipeline translate into revenue. That's where we started to see step function increases on the SoC revenue, and that will continue.

Benjamin Reitzes

Okay. And then, Akash, with regard to the EBIT margins, the EBT margins for QCT, how is that going to progress throughout the year from the 20% to 22% that you guided for given the mix shift towards data center? I was a little unclear there. How should we model that as we go throughout the year?

Akash Palkhiwala

Yes, Ben, so maybe it's a good opportunity to clarify that one of the changes we have made in the way we segment the business is QCT now includes Data Center. In '26, it was outside the QCT segment. And just that change kind of reduces QCT gross margin -- operating margin by 3% as, of course, we are investing ahead of revenue in a couple of product lines. It doesn't change the overall Qualcomm numbers. It's just a change within segments that is included now in the QCT numbers. We're, of course, not guiding specific quarters or years for operating margins, but you should think of it as our operating margin target for QCT doesn't change. We are still looking at a target of 30%. And as revenue starts scaling across the next 2 to 3 years, we are confident in our ability to achieve it.

Operator

The next question is from the line of Vivek Arya with Bank of America.

Liam Pharr

This is Liam Pharr on for Vivek. On networking interconnects, you mentioned the AWS optical ramp and a second optical connectivity customer. Could you help us size how large connectivity is today and how you see it growing into fiscal '27 and '28 as you move to 224 gig and 1.6T? And does the ongoing consolidation in the optical interconnect space impact you in any way? Do you see any natural synergies between interconnects and lasers from an ownership standpoint?

Cristiano Amon

Very good. Actually, thank you so much for the question. I really appreciate that. So we're not breaking that down, but you should assume that there is interconnect connectivity revenue within the $15 billion that we talk about it and some of the $5 billion that we talked about in data center, $5 billion '27, $15 billion '29 . We have been very optimistic about this. We have been investing. This asset came to Qualcomm from the Alphawave acquisition. I think Qualcomm is probably a natural place for comms and we have been investing into this.

We have very interesting technology demonstration or progress with optical and co-packaged optics in the quarter in the 2026 ECOC in Europe, we actually did the demonstration with Lumentum. And you bring a good point. I think the structure of the industry is going to change. My analogy is what happened on RF front end, and that creates opportunities. So we have been engaged in very interesting conversations with some of the laser companies, especially as different forms of partnerships and strategic partnerships are going to be formed. This is actually a very exciting opportunity for Qualcomm. And you're going to see over time a lot more products from Qualcomm on optics. And we have been working on the road map that we outlined in 400 gig, 800 and 1.6 tera.

Liam Pharr

And then on the Dragonfly CPU, you mentioned new prospects beyond Meta. How should we think about the relative upside in CPUs relative to custom accelerators? And with the Arm remedies phase still pending, does the outcome have any implications for your CPU road map or cost structure?

Cristiano Amon

So let me break that question into 2. No implications on our CPU road map. I think we've been very clear about where we are with the Arm trial. We're actually very happy and with our ability to continue to develop and ship Oryon products. I will look at that as probably upside in the projections that we made on $5 billion and $15 billion, we just had Meta as a customer. Any new customer above that is an upside to the revenue target.

Operator

The next questions are from the line of Jim Schneider with Goldman Sachs.

James Schneider

I was wondering if you can maybe just kind of clarify relative to the 3 distinct hyperscale customers that you're ramping through fiscal '27, will all 3 of those be at some kind of revenue materiality exiting the year? Or will it just be maybe 2 of them and 1 will kind of fall outside the year?

Akash Palkhiwala

Yes. You should think of 2 of those customers at a very significant scale, making up that $5 billion, and they will extend into fiscal '28 and then '29 as well. So it's -- think of it as a long-term multi-generation multi-product relationship and both the relationships are at scale.

James Schneider

And then as we model fiscal '27, you provided some helpful overall EBIT margin commentary in terms of the profile of the year. But is there any way to think about OpEx? And specifically, is there any kind of material OpEx step-up that we should be thinking about during the course of fiscal '27?

Akash Palkhiwala

Yes. I think you should just think of our OpEx approach as consistent over the last year. We're guiding $2.8 billion for the September quarter. And the focus on OpEx is really kind of bringing in new skills that don't exist in the company as we diversify, especially within Data Center, and that will continue to be the focus area for us going forward. Just maybe one timing thing is just we typically have calendar year employee-related expenses reset when we get to January. So that will happen, but that's kind of consistent with previous years that you've seen.

Operator

Our final question is from the line of Chris Caso with Wolfe Research.

Christopher Caso

Yes. I guess first question is with regard to the Starlink announcement you made this morning. Could you give some more color on that in terms of timing, magnitude and what Qualcomm is providing into that venture?

Cristiano Amon

Yes. Thanks for the question, Chris. So timing, I think we talk about '27, you should think about from a financial standpoint, it will start to appear as we exit fiscal '27. It's more of a fiscal '28 from a revenue standpoint. Magnitude, I think that what we can say at this point, and I think it's probably how we both articulated into the announcement is a nationwide network in the United States and probably one of the largest build-outs of a network. It's terrestrial network.

We provide silicon content for radio, including massive MIMO as well as the accelerator for the digital unit, and we provide software on the Layer 1. It's a very -- it's a great partnership with SpaceX for next generation, I think, infrastructure. The industry has been running on dedicated equipment. I think we have seen a lot of trends of technology ranging from Open RAN to AI native as an opportunity to innovate in this space. And as we talk about it, it's a multiyear agreement and including how we're going to be thinking about the next generation of wireless as well. We're very proud of this announcement. I think it's great also from the United States technology leadership standpoint, and we're going to be executing on it.

Christopher Caso

Great. As a follow-up question, I wonder if you could give some color. And I know you talked a bit about this in the Analyst Day, but in terms of what product categories are in the Data Center revenue in the $5 billion in fiscal '27 and when other products layer in? And obviously, for near term for this year, is it all connectivity revenue? Is there -- assuming that there's no accelerator revenue in the numbers for the $5 billion that comes in '27?

Akash Palkhiwala

Chris, so for the $5 billion in '27, most of that revenue is actually custom silicon engagement for the main AI accelerator at our 2 hyperscaler customers. The next category that's material in the $5 billion in fiscal '27 is the connectivity revenue. So you should think of those as driving the FY '27 revenue ramp. When you think about the $15 billion revenue in '29, that will be inclusive of the custom silicon engagement, expansion in connectivity, but then we'll also have CPU and AI accelerator both coming in. And that's why we feel confident about achieving the $15 billion and really going beyond that as we execute on the product road map given how good our technology is looking and the interest that we're seeing from various hyperscalers.

Operator

That concludes today's question-and-answer session. Mr. Amon, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?

Cristiano Amon

No, I just wanted to thank our employees and our partners. As I said in my prepared remarks, this is an important, I think, close of a fiscal year for Qualcomm. And it really positions us to start fiscal '27 with all of the things that are within our control and now focus on growing in a much more diversified company. We're very excited about that. We have a lot of things we're doing in parallel, but I guess we developed that capability as we diversify the company, and we're excited about our future. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.