트윈디스크(TWIN) 2027 회계연도 1분기 실적 발표 콘퍼런스 콜: 사상 최대 1억 9,060만 달러 수주 잔고

트윈 디스크(Twin Disc, Inc., NASDAQ: TWIN)가 방산 수요, 해양 제품, 석유 및 가스 업황 회복에 힘입어 2027 회계연도 1분기 호실적을 기록했다고 발표했다. 매출은 10.9% 증가했고 영업이익은 2배 이상 늘었으며, 6개월 수주 잔고는 역대 최고치인 1억 9,060만 달러에 달했다.

핵심 요약

• 2027 회계연도 1분기 매출은 전년 동기 대비 10.9% 증가한 8,870만 달러를 기록했다. 인수합병 및 환율 변동 효과를 제외한 자체 매출(Organic sales)은 11.8% 증가했다.
• 영업이익은 460만 달러로 2배 이상 늘었으며, EBITDA는 62.6% 증가한 770만 달러를 기록했다.
• 트윈 디스크 귀속 순이익은 340만 달러(희석 주당순이익 0.24달러)로, 전년 동기의 51만 8,000달러 순손실(주당 0.04달러 손실) 대비 흑자 전환했다.
• 6개월 수주 잔고는 역대 최고 수준인 1억 9,060만 달러를 기록해, 2026 회계연도 말의 1억 7,830만 달러 및 전년 동기의 1억 6,330만 달러에서 증가했다.
• 방산 부문은 회계연도 말 17%에서 상승해 수주 잔고의 약 24%를 차지했다. 총 방산 수주 잔고는 전년 동기 대비 약 104% 증가했다.
• 잉여현금흐름은 전년 동기의 마이너스(-) 1,100만 달러에서 560만 달러로 개선되었으며, 순부채는 전년 동기의 2,950만 달러에서 1,310만 달러로 감소했다.

주요 재무 실적

사업 및 경영 성과

방산 부문은 핵심 성장 동력 지위를 유지했다. 트윈 디스크는 미 해군 무인 및 자율운항 함정 프로그램에 변속기(트랜스미션)를 공급하고 있으며, 핀란드 자회사 카트사(Katsa)는 나토(NATO) 고객을 위한 군용 차량용 드라이브라인 부품을 제공하고 있다. 경영진은 중동 및 아시아 지역에서 새롭게 등장하는 카트사 프로그램도 언급했다.

해양 및 추진 시스템(Marine and Propulsion Systems) 매출은 베트(Veth), 코벨트(Kobelt), 트윈 디스크 제품 호조에 힘입어 전년 동기 대비 14% 증가했다. 해당 사업부는 군용 변속기 수요, 아시아 지역의 상업용 해운 활동 강화 및 전반적으로 우호적인 시장 상황의 수혜를 입었다.

육상 변속기(Land-Based Transmission) 부문의 보고 매출은 15% 감소했다. 경영진은 이번 감소가 주로 산업(Industrial) 사업부로의 재분류를 반영한 것이라고 설명했다. 북미, 남미, 중국 전역에서 에너지 관련 주문이 늘어나는 등 기초 수요 지표는 건설적인 태세를 유지했다.

산업 부문 매출은 카트사의 유럽 방산 차량 사업과 북미 건설 및 리사이클링 고객의 꾸준한 수요에 힘입어 약 35% 증가했다. 카트사와 베트의 매출총이익률은 트윈 디스크의 평균 수준을 밑돌고 있으나, 경영진은 이들의 마진이 지속적으로 개선되고 있다고 밝혔다.

석유 및 가스 부문은 전년 동기의 8%를 약간 상회했던 것에 비해 분기 매출의 9%를 약간 상회하는 비중을 차지했다. 달러 기준 해당 시장에서의 매출은 약 22% 증가했다. 트윈 디스크는 전자식 수압쇄쇄(e-frac) 주문을 보유하고 있으나, 경영진은 분기 출하물량이 e-frac보다는 천연가스 및 전통 디젤용 제품이었다고 명확히 밝혔다.

지역별 매출 비중은 유럽 46%, 북미 26%, 아시아·태평양 20%를 기록했다. 트윈 디스크는 유럽과 아시아·태평양 지역에서 두 자릿수 매출 성장을 기록했으며, 유럽 성장은 카트사 및 방산 수요의 수혜를 받았다.

재고자산 대비 수주 잔고 비율은 94%로, 전년 동기의 117% 및 2026 회계연도 말의 100%에서 개선되었다. 경영진은 엄격한 재고 관리가 이 같은 개선을 끌어냈으며, 이는 순부채 감축에도 기여했다고 설명했다.

경영진 가이던스

경영진은 2027 회계연도 매출총이익률이 2026 회계연도와 대체로 비슷한 수준을 유지할 것으로 예상하고 있다. 회사는 매출 5억 달러, 매출총이익률 30%, 잉여현금흐름 전환율 60% 이상이라는 2030년 목표를 유지했다.

2027 회계연도의 경우 트윈 디스크가 생산능력 및 역량 투자에 우선순위를 두고 있어 경영진은 잉여현금흐름 전환율이 장기 목표치를 하회하는 약 20%~40% 수준일 것으로 예상한다. 연간 설비투자(CAPEX)는 약 2,500만 달러에 달할 전망이다.

핀란드에 위치한 카트사의 5만 4,000평방피트 규모 신규 조립 공장은 2027년 5월에 본격 가동될 예정이다. 카트사는 방산, 산업용 발전 및 중장비 수요에 대응하기 위해 2028년까지 기어박스 조립 능력을 2배로 확대할 계획이다.

리스크 및 주요 관전 포인트

• 2027 회계연도 잉여현금흐름 전환율은 내부 및 외부 리드 타임을 포함해 계획된 설비투자의 집행 시기와 이행 여부에 부분적으로 좌우될 것이다.
• 경영진은 회계연도 2분기 중 미 해군 무인 함정 주문이 다시 증가할 것으로 예상하며, 초기 30척 분량의 주문이 수주 잔고에 반영된 후 몇 분기 동안 일시 중단될 가능성이 있다고 설명했다.
• 카트사와 베트는 빠르게 성장하고 있으나 현재 회사의 평균을 밑도는 매출총이익률을 기록하고 있어 단기적인 마진 확대를 제한하고 있다.
• 보고된 사업부별 비교 실적은 육상 변속기 사업과 산업 사업 간의 재분류에 따른 영향을 받는다.

애널리스트 Q&A 주요 내용

경영진은 회계연도 2분기에 순 신규 방산 주문이 다시 늘어날 것으로 기대하고 있다. 카트사의 경우 나토 트럭 프로그램이 가장 큰 기회로 남아 있으며, 중동 및 아시아의 추가 프로그램 역시 2분기 수주에 기여할 것으로 예상된다.

카트사의 데이터 센터 노출도는 비상용 발전기 세트를 생산하는 유럽 엔진 제조업체에 공급하는 부품에서 발생한다. 분기 데이터 센터 관련 매출은 여전히 100만 달러 미만이었으나, 경영진은 주문이 증가하고 있으며 향후 카트사에 수백만 달러 규모의 매출을 가져다줄 수 있다고 밝혔다. 이러한 부품은 신규 조립 공장의 공간보다는 가공 역량이 요구된다.

트윈 디스크는 3,000만~5,000만 달러 규모의 항공우주 및 방산 파이프라인 프로젝트들이 확정 주문으로 전환됨에 따라 지속적으로 채워지고 있다고 밝혔다. 타국 해군과의 새로운 해양 파이프라인 기회 및 카트사를 통한 지상 차량 프로그램이 해당 파이프라인을 뒷받침하고 있다.

실적 발표 설명회(Earnings Call) 전문

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Twin Disc, Inc. Fiscal First Quarter 2027 Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]

I'd now like to turn the conference over to Jeff Knutson, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.

Jeffrey Knutson

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today to discuss our fiscal 2027 first quarter results.

On the call with me today is John Batten, Twin Disc's CEO.

I would like to remind everyone that certain statements made during this conference call, especially statements expressing hopes, beliefs, expectations or predictions for the future are forward-looking statements. It is important to remember that the company's actual results could differ materially from those projected in such forward-looking statements. Information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are contained in the company's annual report on Form 10-K, copies of which may be obtained by contacting either the company or the SEC.

Any forward-looking statements that are made during this call are based on assumptions as of today, and the company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise these statements to reflect subsequent events or new information.

During today's call, management will also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. For a definition of non-GAAP financial measures and a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial results, please see the earnings release issued earlier today.

Now I'll turn the call over to John.

John Batten

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our fiscal 2027 first quarter conference call. Our first quarter results continued to build on the strong momentum we established in fiscal 2026. Demand remains strong across our end markets, and our performance in the quarter drove solid revenue of $88.7 million, a 10.9% increase over the first quarter of last year as well as a net income of $3.5 million, a 63% year-over-year increase in EBITDA and free cash flow of $5.6 million.

Importantly, defense continues to be a key growth driver, supported by growing U.S. Navy and NATO demand. Katsa, our subsidiary in Finland, booked significant defense orders in the first quarter and U.S. Navy orders related to their initial unmanned vessel program have begun to reach our order book. I'll say more about defense shortly.

While reported land-based transmission revenue was down, this is primarily related to a reclassification of revenue from transmission to industrial. Oil and gas demand was strong in the quarter, and we continue to see growing opportunities in e-frac, which carry a higher margin profile than both traditional fracking and our company-wide margins.

Our first quarter results drove 6-month backlog of $191 million, a 7% increase over the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 and a company record. We expect to maintain a strong backlog level as we continue to see strong interest and sales momentum, supporting a robust project pipeline.

Looking at our liquidity, we generated strong free cash flow compared to negative free cash flow a year ago, and we reduced our net debt even as we continue to increase capital expenditures to support our growth.

As we mentioned on last quarter's call, we also made the decision to increase our quarterly cash dividend by 25% to $0.05 per share, demonstrating the confidence that our Board and management team have in the underlying strength of our business.

Turning now to our operations. Defense remains one of our most important long-term growth opportunities. And today, we serve 2 main groups of customers. In the U.S., we supply transmissions to shipbuilders for the U.S. Navy's unmanned and autonomous vessel programs. And in Europe, our Finnish subsidiary, Katsa provides driveline components for military vehicles to NATO customers.

To provide some context around the momentum we're seeing from defense, as of the end of the first quarter of fiscal 2027, defense accounted for approximately 24% of total backlog compared with approximately 17% of total backlog at year-end and a total defense backlog increased approximately 104% year-over-year.

Marine and Propulsion Systems sales rose 14% from a year ago. Similar to last quarter, revenue in this segment was led by continued demand for Veth, Kobelt and Twin Disc products and continues to benefit from strong military demand for marine transmissions, better commercial maritime demand in Asia and a generally strong market conditions.

Land-based transmission sales declined 15% year-over-year. Before getting into Land-Based Transmissions and industrial segments, I'd like to note that starting at the beginning of 2027 fiscal year, all cost of sales previously classified in Land-Based Transmission are now classified in Industrial.

Demand indicators in this segment remain constructive. Oil and gas is growing as a percentage of our backlog and is less volatile than in previous periods. Global demand for energy-related products and orders for energy applications have also increased. Demand trends are strengthening across North America, Latin America and China, and North American energy customers appear more inclined to invest in frac rig, including rebuilds and new units.

We also continue to advance next-generation electrified and natural gas solutions that support long-term demand. Industrial sales increased approximately 35% in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 when compared to the prior year. Katsa is a strong near-term growth driver through defense vehicle components in Europe, supported by a strong global military demand.

The Kobelt product line continues to offer considerable market opportunity, and we are seeing steady demand from North American construction and recycling customers, along with stable underlying demand across industrial end markets.

Katsa continues to make progress on the construction of its new 54,000 square foot assembly plant in Finland. The new plant is expected to be fully operational in May of 2027. And by 2028, Katsa expects to double its gearbox assembly capacity to meet rising global demand from the defense industry as well as industrial power generation and heavy equipment.

As we mentioned last quarter, Katsa is also benefiting from data center construction by providing components to major engine manufacturers who design and install backup power systems for these facilities.

Overall, our business segments performed well, and we ended the first quarter of fiscal 2027 with a 6-month backlog of approximately $190.6 million, up from $178.3 million at fiscal year-end and $163.3 million a year ago and a record on a reported basis.

Inventory as a percentage of backlog also improved, falling to 94% compared with 117% in the first quarter of fiscal 2026 and 100% at year-end. This trend represents our disciplined inventory management, which played a key role in the reduction of our net debt during the quarter. Jeff will provide more information on this in his prepared remarks.

Our strategy is clear. We continue to position Twin Disc as a leading provider of hybrid and electric solutions for niche marine and land-based applications, and we are pursuing that through organic growth, acquisitions that open new markets and geographies and a disciplined capital allocation across the enterprise. We have a strong team and plan in place to execute on all our strategic goals.

With our visibility today, we remain confident in our 2030 target of $500 million in revenue, a 30% gross margin and free cash flow conversion above 60%.

With that, I'll hand the call to Jeff to walk through the financial results in more detail.

Jeffrey Knutson

Thanks, John. Good morning, everyone. Sales in the first quarter of fiscal '27 totaled $88.7 million, a 10.9% increase over the first quarter of fiscal '26. Revenue growth was primarily driven by strength in our Veth product line, expanding demand from the defense sector, improved oil and gas demand and generally strong market conditions across the global enterprise.

On an organic basis, which excludes the impact of acquisitions and foreign currency exchange, sales increased 11.8%. Gross profit increased 10.9% to $25.4 million compared to $22.9 million for the first quarter of fiscal '26. First quarter gross margin was 28.7%, consistent with the prior year period.

Marketing, Engineering and Administrative, or ME&A expense was $20.8 million, consistent with $20.7 million in the prior year quarter. The slight increase was primarily driven by an inflationary impact on wages and benefits, offset by ongoing expense control. With ME&A roughly flat on higher sales, we saw stronger operating leverage in the quarter.

Operating income more than doubled to $4.6 million compared with $2.2 million in the first quarter of fiscal '26. Net income attributable to Twin Disc for the first quarter was $3.4 million or $0.24 per diluted share compared to a net loss of $518,000 or a loss of $0.04 per diluted share in the prior year period. The improvement was primarily driven by an increase in operating income and a decrease in interest expense and other expense.

EBITDA was $7.7 million in the first quarter, an increase of 62.6% compared to the first quarter of fiscal '26. Geographically, Europe accounted for 46% of sales in the first quarter, followed by North America at 26% and Asia Pacific at 20%. In the prior year period, Europe accounted for 39% North America, 33%; and Asia Pacific, 18%.

We delivered double-digit sales growth in both Europe and Asia Pacific. Increased sales in Europe were primarily driven by contributions from our acquisitions, namely Katsa, which continues to benefit from increasing demand in the defense sector.

As I noted before, gross margin was 28.7% in the first quarter of fiscal '27, consistent with the prior year period. Our margin profile in the quarter reflects the strong growth we continue to see with Katsa and Veth, which operate at gross margins below the company average but continue to improve. Margins were also impacted by favorable product mix in land-based transmissions, including higher alternative fuel unit sales.

We expect gross margins in fiscal '27 to be broadly in line with fiscal '26, and we remain confident in our longer-term target of 30% gross margin by 2030. We generated free cash flow of $5.6 million in the quarter compared with negative free cash flow of $11 million in the prior year period, and we reduced net debt due in large part to disciplined inventory management despite increased capital expenditures in the quarter as we continue to invest in our future growth.

Operating cash flow was $11.5 million and capital expenditures were $5.8 million. While we expect long-term free cash flow conversion above 60%, it's important to remember that we're prioritizing investments in our growth in the near term. Therefore, while 60% free cash flow conversion represents a key long-term goal. We do not expect free cash flow conversion at this rate in fiscal '27.

We ended the quarter with cash of approximately $26.7 million. Total debt was $39.8 million and net debt was $13.1 million compared with $29.5 million in the prior year period. Our net debt, coupled with trailing 12-month EBITDA of $32.9 million provides us with a net leverage ratio of 0.4x as of September 25, 2026, compared with a ratio of 1.3x in the prior year.

Our capital allocation framework is unchanged. We continue to invest in organic growth, focusing on R&D, geographic expansion and marketing. On the M&A front, we remain selective on acquisitions, bolt-on or transformational, looking for strategic fit, returns above our cost of capital and the ability to strengthen our network and capabilities while further diversifying our offerings. We're also prioritizing returning capital to shareholders through our dividend, which was $0.05 per share in the quarter as well as reducing our net debt.

I'll now turn the call back to John for his closing remarks.

John Batten

Thanks, Jeff. To wrap up, the first quarter showed that the momentum from fiscal 2026 is carrying forward. Demand is healthy. Our 6-month backlog is at a record and defense momentum continues to build in both backlog and pipeline, which supports our longer-term growth. We are confident that gross margins will improve over time as we diversify our end markets and benefit from greater operating leverage.

In the meantime, we are investing for growth, including the expansion of our European footprint and the build-out of our manufacturing capabilities in Racine, and we are doing so with the financial discipline that has strengthened our balance sheet.

With a strong balance sheet and a robust backlog, our priorities for fiscal 2027 are to execute on our operational initiatives, optimize our global footprint and invest in long-term growth by carefully allocating capital, which includes returning capital to our shareholders.

Operator, please open the call for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

And your first question comes from the line of Max Michaelis with Lake Street Capital Markets.

질의응답

Maxwell Michaelis

Congrats on the quarter. First one for me. So backlog, obviously up 104% on the defense side. Katsa seems like it grew significantly in terms of backlog. But if we look at the U.S. Navy portion of that, it sounds like orders are just starting to come in. Should we expect more of a ramp in the December quarter? Or is that going to be pushed out towards the March quarter? How should we think about the unmanned vessel opportunity ramping as a portion of backlog?

John Batten

Thank you. Max, it's John. I think -- so for the first 30 boats that are the, I would say, the official orders from the U.S. Navy, I think there's -- you'll see some of those also came in, in the second quarter. So you'll see a bump. I'm not sure you'll see the same bump in our third quarter. So this will kind of get us to a level for the first 30 boats.

Don't know when we will -- we have -- there are some orders in, but let's just say, I don't know when that next bump would be. So I think you'll see another one this quarter, and then there'll probably be a pause for a few quarters.

Maxwell Michaelis

Okay. And then for Katsa, I mean, is that just going to be sort of linear through Q2 and Q3? Or is there going to be any sort of bump as there will be with the unmanned vessel opportunity?

John Batten

Yes. I think you'll see another bump in this quarter. And yes, because there's 3 dynamics going on. There's NATO, there's a customer in the Middle East with a program going and then a new program in Asia. So they're kind of all coming online. Obviously, the biggest magnitude are the NATO trucks. And I think you'll see all 3 of those will have some impact on the second quarter in net new orders.

Maxwell Michaelis

Okay. Perfect. And then last one for me, and I'll take the rest of mine offline. You mentioned the data center build-out or data center opportunity with Katsa. I mean, is there -- I know this may be early on, early innings in terms of this opportunity, but is there any way you can help size this opportunity? Or is it just too early to tell, I guess?

John Batten

I think it's -- it's -- we don't sell the finished product. So we're basically selling components to engine OEMs in Europe that are the backup power gensets for these. They're expensive components. Hard for me to put on the whole potential, but it's certainly -- it's significant for Katsa. We're talking -- the sales in the millions, so which is for a $50 million business and growing, it's good business for sure.

Maxwell Michaelis

Yes. I guess because the way I see it, I mean, you're already expanding capacity with Katsa in Finland, and that's primarily due to the defense opportunity. And I mean now that if this data center opportunity explodes, I mean, I was just curious if this 54,000 square feet facility will be enough?

John Batten

So Max, since these are just one-off components, they wouldn't be going through the assembly facility. So they wouldn't be putting the pressure on that facility, which is nice. It's just machining capacity.

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Simon Wong with Gabelli Funds.

Tze-Kiang Wong

Just continuing with Max's question on data center. How much revenue did you get from data center this quarter?

Jeffrey Knutson

Yes, that's a tough question. I think we're still early on in that ramping. So I wouldn't call it a significant contributor in the quarter necessarily.

John Batten

Yes, Simon, I wouldn't put the sales in this past quarter. It's probably right now still under $1 million, but the orders are growing. So yes, I think it's going to be more of a story going forward.

Tze-Kiang Wong

Got it. Okay. And then oil and gas, how much -- what percentage of revenue was oil and gas this quarter? And how does it compare to last year?

Jeffrey Knutson

Yes. So it was just over 9% in the quarter, which is a little bit higher than last -- last year's Q1 was a little over 8%. So in terms of just raw dollars, we're up about 22% in oil and gas year-over-year.

Tze-Kiang Wong

Okay. Now you mentioned that you -- it sounds like you sold some e-frac units in the quarter. Can you quantify how much e-frac units that you sold?

John Batten

Yes, Simon, I think we have orders. I'm not -- I don't think actually anything for e-frac. We shipped some of the models that go into e-frac, but they were for natural gas applications. So we shipped last fiscal year, and we have orders for this fiscal year. But what went out was actually natural gas and traditional diesel this quarter as far as shipments.

Tze-Kiang Wong

Okay. All right. And then looking at your slide on aerospace and defense, you still see a pipeline opportunity of $30 million to $50 million despite booking some orders during the quarter. So that was unchanged -- look like the pipeline is unchanged sequentially quarter-to-quarter. Are you -- is that a rolling number? Or are you seeing new opportunity?

John Batten

Yes. So it's good, Simon. So we -- from that pipeline that we identified, we definitely brought stuff in that are firm orders now, but the pipeline continues to grow both on -- with other navies for marine transmissions and more importantly, land-based vehicles out of Katsa. Again, new business that's coming up in the Middle East and new business that's coming up in Asia. So the pipeline continues to grow as well as converting what was in the pipeline into firm orders.

Tze-Kiang Wong

Okay. Great. And then last question for me. The free cash flow conversion, I know you're targeting 60% long term. but don't expect to be at that level this year. What level are you -- should I be thinking about for 2027 or fiscal '27?

Jeffrey Knutson

Yes. I think in the, let's say, between the 20% to 40% range. And a lot of that will depend on how successful we are in getting the CapEx in that we want to get in, right? Because there are a lot of variables there, both internal and external lead times, et cetera. But we have a strong initiative to build out some capacity and capabilities. And that's probably one of the bigger variables in terms of what free cash flow turns out to be for the year.

Tze-Kiang Wong

And CapEx for this year, $25 million?

Jeffrey Knutson

Yes. I think we'll still get to around $25 million. That's -- I think Q1 hopefully will be our lowest quarter at around $5.7 million, $5.8 million, I think. So hopefully, we were ramping through the year.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

And I'm showing no further questions at this time. I would like to hand it back to John Batten for closing remarks.

John Batten

Thank you, Priya, and thank you for joining us today and your continued interest in Twin Disc. If you have any further questions, please reach out either to Jeff or myself, and we look forward to speaking with you in February after our fiscal 2027 second quarter call. Priya, I'll now turn the call back to you.

Operator

Thank you, presenters. And this concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.