페로그로브(GSM) 2026년 3분기 실적 발표 콘퍼런스 콜: 1억 달러 규모 비용 계획

핵심 요약

• 2026년 3분기 매출은 전체 출하량이 18만 3,000톤으로 3% 감소함에 따라 전분기 대비 2% 줄어든 3억 7,000만 달러를 기록했습니다. 매출은 2025년 3분기 대비 19% 증가했습니다.
• 조정 EBITDA는 2026년 2분기 1,300만 달러 흑자에서 마이너스 200만 달러로 적자 전환했습니다. 경영진은 에너지 비용 상승으로 인해 약 1,900만 달러의 압박을 받았으며, 해당 영향을 제외할 경우 조정 EBITDA가 약 1,600만 달러에 달했을 것으로 추정했습니다.
• 페로그로브(Ferroglobe)는 3,200만 달러 규모의 운전자본 방출에 힘입어 영업활동 현금흐름 2,600만 달러, 잉여현금흐름 600만 달러를 창출했습니다.
• 경영진은 완전히 시행될 경우 연간 EBITDA를 오차범위 15% 내외에서 약 1억 달러 증가시킬 것으로 예상되는 비용 절감 프로그램을 시작했습니다. 이 계획에는 5개 공장 폐쇄, 가동률을 60% 미만에서 약 80%로 인상, 인력 약 20% 감축 등이 포함됩니다.
• 회사는 해당 분기 동안 페로몰리브덴의 상업적 출하를 시작했으며, 페로바나듐 및 페로크롬의 첫 상업적 출하와 함께 4분기에 추가 출하가 이루어질 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.
• 경영진은 무역 조치와 2027년 예상 철강 수요 증가가 핵심 시장을 뒷받침할 수 있겠지만, 에너지 비용 및 유럽 페로실리콘 시장의 약세로 인해 4분기에도 어려운 상황이 지속될 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.

주요 재무 데이터

사업 및 운영 실적

메탈실리콘

매출은 1억 200만 달러를 기록했습니다. 판매량은 주로 계절적 요인으로 인해 전분기 대비 6% 감소한 3만 8,000톤이었으나, 2025년 3분기보다는 14% 증가했습니다. 평균 판매 가격은 톤당 약 2,669달러로 3% 상승했습니다.

부문 조정 EBITDA는 2분기 마이너스 300만 달러에서 마이너스 200만 달러로 소폭 개선되었습니다. 톤당 비용은 북미 지역의 에너지 및 전극 가격 상승으로 인해 3% 증가했습니다.

해당 분기 동안 메탈실리콘 지수 가격은 미국에서 10%, 유럽에서 6% 상승했습니다. 경영진은 2027년 계약 협상이 계속됨에 따라 고객의 관심이 높아지고 있다고 말했습니다.

실리콘계 합금

판매량이 전분기 대비 6% 감소한 5만 9,000톤을 기록함에 따라 매출은 1억 1,700만 달러로 줄었습니다. 실현 가격은 톤당 1,973달러로 전반적으로 평이한 수준을 유지했습니다.

조정 EBITDA는 스페인 소송 이익 500만 달러가 포함되었던 2분기의 1,500만 달러 흑자에서 마이너스 200만 달러 적자로 감소했습니다. 감소분의 대부분은 유럽에서의 에너지 비용 상승과 고정비 흡수율 약화에 기인했습니다.

경영진은 회사가 수익성이 없는 가격에 유럽 추가 물량을 공급하는 것을 피했다고 밝혔습니다. 과잉 재고와 지속적인 수입 증가가 시장을 계속 압박하면서 유럽 페로실리콘 지수는 연초 대비 16% 하락했습니다.

망간계 합금

매출은 1억 1,400만 달러로 증가했습니다. 판매량은 전분기 대비 1% 증가한 8만 6,000톤을 기록했고, 평균 판매 가격은 5% 상승한 톤당 1,330달러를 나타냈습니다.

조정 EBITDA는 2분기 1,300만 달러에 비해 감소한 1,100만 달러를 기록했습니다. 주로 스페인 지역의 에너지 비용이 톤당 비용 증가분의 85%를 차지했습니다.

핵심 소재 및 무역 보호

페로그로브는 원래 연말 목표보다 앞서 페로몰리브덴의 상업 출하를 시작했습니다. 또한 보다 광범위한 시장 도입 계획을 결정하기 전에 페로바나듐, 저탄소 페로크롬 및 페로붕소에 대한 산업적 규모의 검증을 계획했습니다.

회사는 11월에 미국 정부의 핵심 소재 최종 제안서를 제출할 것으로 예상하고 있으며, 협상은 2027년 초에 시작되어 1분기 말 이전에 마무리될 것으로 예상됩니다.

유럽에서는 유럽연합 집행위원회(EC)가 9월 1일 중국산 메탈실리콘 수입에 대한 중간 반덤핑 조사를 시작했고 10월 23일 수입 등록을 명령했습니다. 경영진은 수입 등록이 재고 축적을 방지하고 조치의 소급 적용을 가능하게 할 수 있다고 말했습니다. 미국의 경우 호주 및 노르웨이 관련 사건의 최종 결정 이후 메탈실리콘 지수가 10% 상승했습니다.

경영진 전망

• 경영진은 비용 절감 프로그램이 완전히 시행되면 연간 EBITDA에 오차범위 15% 내외에서 약 1억 달러를 추가할 것으로 예상합니다.
• 구조조정은 현재 60% 미만인 가동률을 약 80%로 끌어올리고 본사 및 운영 직군 전체에서 약 20%의 인력을 감축하는 것을 목표로 합니다.
• 회사는 3,000만~4,000만 달러 규모의 운전자본 감축과 향후 자본적 지출 축소를 목표로 하고 있습니다. 실행 비용은 목표로 하는 운전자본 감축액을 차감한 후 18개월 동안 총 4,000만~6,000만 달러가 들 것으로 예상됩니다.
• 경영진은 4분기에 실질적인 운전자본 변동이 없을 것으로 예상하며, 자본적 지출은 3분기 대비 크게 감소할 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.
• 4분기는 에너지 비용과 유럽 페로실리콘 시장의 약세로 인해 계속 어려울 것으로 예상됩니다.
• 페로그로브는 베네수엘라 사업 재개와 관련된 합의를 마무리하는 데 필요한 OFAC(미 해외자산통제국) 라이선스 취득을 추진하고 있습니다. 경영진은 라이선스가 곧 발급될 수 있지만 안정적인 전력 공급이 여전히 핵심 요건으로 남아있다고 밝혔습니다.

리스크 및 주시 영역

• 특히 스페인에서의 높은 에너지 비용은 3분기 조정 EBITDA를 거의 1,900만 달러 감소시켰으며 4분기에도 계속 과제로 남을 것으로 예상됩니다.
• 유럽 페로실리콘 가격은 과잉 재고와 수입 증가로 인해 계속 압박을 받고 있습니다.
• 구조조정은 해당되는 경우 근로자 대표와의 협의가 필요하며, 목표 운전자본 감축액을 차감하고 4,000만~6,000만 달러의 실행 비용이 예상됩니다.
• 베네수엘라 사업 재개는 OFAC 라이선스 획득 및 안정적인 전력 공급 확보에 달려 있습니다.
• 신규 핵심 소재의 상업 물량은 산업적 규모의 생산 검증이 완료될 때까지 불확실한 상태로 남아 있습니다.
• 유럽의 잠재적 소급 반덤핑 조치는 아직 결정되지 않았습니다.

애널리스트 Q&A 하이라이트

경영진은 계획된 5개 공장 폐쇄 프로그램이 가장 경쟁력 있는 사업장에 생산을 통합하고 가동률을 80% 수준으로 높이기 위해 설계되었다고 말했습니다. 페로그로브는 남아프리카공화국의 에말랄레니(Emalahleni) 및 폴로콰네(Polokwane) 공장의 보존(mothballing)을 발표했으나, 이해관계자 협의가 여전히 필요함에 따라 영향을 받는 다른 시설은 공개하지 않았습니다.

베네수엘라 건에 대해 경영진은 신속한 재개를 지원하기 위한 논의가 시작되었다고 말했습니다. 전력 신뢰성이 주요 운영 이슈이며, 계약을 최종 확정하기 전에 OFAC 라이선스가 필요합니다.

핵심 소재의 경우, 페로그로브는 페로몰리브덴을 다시 생산하고 있으며 페로바나듐, 저탄소 페로크롬 및 페로붕소에 대한 시범 생산을 진행 중이거나 계획하고 있습니다. 경영진은 산업적 규모의 검증이 완료되기 전에 4분기 또는 2027년 물량 전망치를 제공하는 것은 시기상조라고 말했습니다.

유럽의 무역 조치와 관련해 경영진은 중국산 메탈실리콘 수입품 등록이 결정 전 재고 축적을 방지하고 관세를 소급 부과할 수 있는 옵션을 제공할 수 있다고 설명했습니다.

실적 발표 전화회의 전문

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Ferroglobe's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference call may be recorded.

I would now like to turn the call over to Alex Rotonen, Ferroglobe's Vice President of Investor Relations. You may begin.

Alex Rotonen

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Ferroglobe's third quarter 2026 conference call. Joining me today are Marco Levi, our Chief Executive Officer; and Beatriz Garcia-Cos, our Chief Financial Officer.

Before we get started with some prepared remarks, I'm going to read a brief statement. Please turn to Slide 2 at this time. Statements made by management during this conference call that are forward-looking are based on current expectations. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those forward-looking statements can be found in Ferroglobe's most recent SEC filings and the exhibits to those filings, which are available at ferroglobe.com.

In addition, this discussion includes references to EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted gross debt, adjusted net debt and adjusted diluted earnings per share, among other non-IFRS measures. Reconciliations of non-IFRS measures may be found in our most recent SEC filings.

We'll be participating in the Stephens Annual Investment Conference in Nashville on November 17. We hope to see you there.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Marco.

Marco Levi

Thank you, Alex, and thank you all for joining us today. We appreciate your continued interest in Ferroglobe.

Our third quarter results continued to reflect challenges in our silicon metal and silicon-based alloy segments as a result of predatory import prices and external factors affecting costs. Despite these adverse conditions, we generated positive free cash flow.

Total shipments declined 3% quarter-over-quarter to 183,000 tons as silicon metal and silicon-based alloys volumes declined 6%, partially offset by a 1% increase in manganese-based alloys. As a result, revenue declined 2% from the second quarter to $370 million.

Adjusted EBITDA was negative $2 million compared with positive $13 million in the second quarter. The decline was due to extraordinary energy costs, mainly in Spain, associated with the Middle East conflict and to a lesser degree, regulatory pricing in the ferrosilicon segment. Excluding the $18.5 million impact from high energy prices, the adjusted EBITDA would have been approximately $16 million in the third quarter. Beatriz will provide more detailed comments in her section.

Next slide, please. Since the last call, we have made tangible progress on the following strategic priorities: lowering and rightsizing our cost structure, expanding our critical materials platform, pursuing the restart of Venezuela, and strengthening our core business through trade protection.

Let me start with rightsizing our footprint and cost structure. Last month, we initiated an aggressive cost reduction program to increase our capacity utilization, enhance our operating efficiency and strengthen our competitive position. Once fully implemented, we expect the cost reduction program to enhance our annual EBITDA by approximately $100 million, plus or minus 15%.

Our plans to tackle the difficult business environment and increase profitability include the following. First, we are consolidating our operations to our most cost competitive plants, enabled by our flexible footprint. Our goal is to boost capacity utilization to 80%, up from less than 60% today.

To accomplish this, we plan to close 5 plants around the globe with minimal impact on our sales volumes or our ability to expand into critical materials. We will work through these changes together with our employee representatives as required. Some of these operations might be switched to critical materials.

At the same time, we are restarting Selma to produce ferroalloys. As for the nonstrategic plans, we are exploring the best way to monetize them, whether through outright divestitures or alternative use as data centers.

Second, we plan to reduce our corporate overhead primarily through headcount reductions. Overall, we expect to reduce our corporate and operations workforce by approximately 20% once the process is complete, subject to consultation with employee representatives where required.

These are difficult decisions, but necessary steps to align our cost structure with the current market conditions and position the business for improved profitability. These actions will lower Ferroglobe's fixed cost per ton, target working capital reduction of $30 million, $40 million, and decrease future CapEx, creating more streamlined organization positioned to generate stronger cash flow and EBITDA.

We have already begun this process by announcing the mothballing of our South African plants in Emalahleni and Polokwane due to lack of demand. The upfront cost of implementing this transformation plan is expected to be in the range of $40 million to $60 million, net of targeted working capital reduction over an 18-month period.

Moving to critical materials. Our expansion is progressing ahead of schedule. During the third quarter, we began shipment of ferromolybdenum to commercial customers, well ahead of our original year-end target. This demonstrates our ability to produce critical ferroalloys in Monzon, Spain with minimal capital investment. We expect additional ferromolybdenum shipments in the fourth quarter as well as our first commercial shipments of other critical ferroalloys such as ferrovanadium and ferrochromium.

As part of the critical material expansion, we continue our discussion with the U.S. Department of War. These discussions to build the domestic supply of certain critical materials continue to progress on schedule. Our September 16 summary proposal included magnesium and manganese and 7 additional critical materials, and we expect to present our final proposal this month in November. The negotiations should begin in early 2027 and conclude before the end of the first quarter.

As for Venezuela, we continue to pursue the license from the Office of Foreign Assets Control, or OFAC, required to finalize any agreements. Concurrently, we have begun initial discussions in Venezuela to prepare for an expedited restart of our operations.

On our effort to protect the business, trade measures continue to gain momentum. On September 1, the European Commission initiated an interim antidumping review into imports of Chinese silicon metal and October 23, the Commission announced the registration of all Chinese silicon metal imports. This simply means that each import will be recorded and monitored in detail for future review.

This decision is important because it indicates how seriously the European Commission takes the matter and allows potential duties to be applied retroactively. The market has already responded with the European Silicon metal index rising 7% since the announcement of this review.

In the United States, the ITC's final determination in the silicon metal case against Australia and Norway was announced on August 3. Subsequently, the U.S. index rose 10% following the announcement.

Finally, Coreshell has made strong progress in the third quarter. They received a $50 million award from the U.S. Department of Energy to build the first U.S. gigafactory dedicated to 100% graphite-free silicon anode batteries. This award comes at a great moment in Coreshell's growth as they have now signed multiple military customers in the drone and autonomous vehicle space. Coreshell continues to work with multiple OEMs to further validate the silicon anode technology on a greater scale.

Next slide, please. I'll update on our segments, starting with silicon metal on Slide 5. We are seeing improvement in the silicon metal segment with index prices up 10% in U.S. and 6% in Europe in the third quarter, reflecting a positive response to trade actions on both sides of the Atlantic. Our realized prices improved 3% over the second quarter.

Our silicon metal volumes declined 6% to 38,000 tons with U.S. sales down 8% and new sales down 3%. The decline was driven mainly by seasonality with volumes up 14% over Q3 2025. Importantly, we are seeing increased customer interest, an encouraging sign as we continue our 2027 contract negotiations.

Next slide, please. Silicon-based alloy volumes remained significantly above last year's level, although they declined 6% in the third quarter compared to the second quarter to 59,000 tons. Index prices were down 2% in Europe and 1% in the U.S., while our realized prices were essentially flat.

Our European volumes declined substantially, reflecting our disciplined decision not to pursue incremental volumes at unprofitable prices. Excess inventory and elevated import volumes continue to weigh on price recovery, particularly in the European market where the ferrosilicon index is down 16% year-to-date. The main culprits are Malaysia, Bhutan, Azerbaijan, India and Angola. European Commission's annual review of the ferroalloy safeguards scheduled for later this month can potentially bring meaningful improvement to the alloys market in 2027.

Next slide, please. Manganese-based alloys remain our most consistent segment. Volumes remained strong, increasing 1% to 86,000 tons. While index prices were down approximately 1% in the quarter, our realized prices increased 5%. The market outlook remains positive, supported by firm pricing and healthy volumes.

Looking ahead, both the silicon-based alloys and manganese-based alloy segments are expected to benefit from improving steel demand. In its October short-range outlook, the World Steel Association forecast 2027 finished steel demand growth of 3% in Europe and 2% in North America. Manufacturing activity supports this view with September PMI reaching 52.9 in the Eurozone, a 52-month high, and 55.9 in the U.S. Aluminum production is expected to grow by 2% in the U.S. and 3% in Europe.

I would now like to turn the call over to Beatriz Garcia-Cos, our Chief Financial Officer, to review the financial results in more detail. Beatriz?

Beatriz García-Cos Muntañola

Thank you, Marco. Please turn to Slide 9 for a review of the third quarter income statement. Total third quarter sales declined 2% from the prior quarter to $370 million, driven by a 3% decline in total volumes. Lower volumes in silicon metal and silicon-based alloys were partially offset by higher realized prices in silicon metal and manganese-based alloys. Compared with the third quarter of 2025, sales increased 19%.

Adjusted EBITDA was negative $2 million compared with a positive $13 million in the prior quarter. As a reminder, second quarter adjusted EBITDA includes a $5 million benefit from litigation in Spain. Higher energy costs reduced adjusted EBITDA by nearly $19 million in the quarter. Excluding these items, the adjusted EBITDA would have been $16 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin was negative 0.6% compared with a positive 3.5% in the second quarter.

Next slide, please. Silicon metal revenue was $102 million in the third quarter, a 6% decline in volume, was partially offset by a 3% increase in average selling price to approximately $2,669 per ton, up from $2,592 per ton in the second quarter. Cost per ton increased by 3% due to higher energy and electrode prices in North America.

Adjusted EBITDA was negative $2 million, a slight improvement compared with negative $3 million in the prior quarter. Silicon-based alloys revenue declined to $117 million, driven by a 6% sequential decline in volumes to 59,000 tons. Realized prices were essentially flat at $1,973 per ton.

Adjusted EBITDA for the segment was negative $2 million, down from positive $15 million in the second quarter, which includes the $5 million litigation benefit in Spain. Volume and price declines explained approximately $2 million of the decline, with the remaining EBITDA decline reflecting higher energy costs and lower fixed cost absorption in Europe.

Next slide, please. Manganese-based alloys revenue increased to $114 million as volume increased 1% to 86,000 tons, and average selling price improved 5% to $1,330 per ton. Higher energy costs primarily in Spain were the main driver of increased cost per ton. Overall, energy accounts for 85% of the cost increase. Adjusted EBITDA was $11 million compared with $13 million in the prior quarter.

Next slide, please. For the third quarter, cash flow from operations was $26 million, driven by a $32 million release of working capital. This is well ahead of the approximately $50 million release we target for the second half of the year on our last call. We don't expect material changes in working capital in the fourth quarter.

For those less familiar, the PPA mark-to-market of $77 million is related to our energy contracts, which are excluded from adjusted EBITDA due to the volatility and noncash impact. CapEx was $20 million, up from $17 million in the second quarter due to the timing of the actual payments for our charcoal plant in Spain. We expect CapEx to decline significantly in the fourth quarter.

Free cash flow was positive $6 million compared with $20 million in the prior quarter.

Next slide, please. We paid our quarterly dividend of $0.015 per share on September 29. Our next dividend of $0.015 per share is scheduled for December 30, payable to shareholders on record as of December 22.

We ended the quarter with approximately $93 million in cash, unchanged from the second quarter. Adjusted gross debt was $135 million and net debt increased slightly to $42 million. We continue to maintain a solid balance sheet, which gives us the flexibility to execute the cost reduction program and support our critical materials expansion.

At this time, I'll turn the call back to Marco.

Marco Levi

Thank you, Beatriz. Before opening the call for Q&A, I'd like to share the key takeaways from today's presentation on Slide 15. While our third quarter earnings results are disappointing, we are taking decisive action to improve profitability. The cost reduction program will consolidate production at our most competitive plant, increase capacity utilization to approximately 80%, and streamline the organization. Once fully implemented, we expect to add $100 million to our annual EBITDA, plus or minus 15%.

While we expect the fourth quarter to remain challenging due to energy costs and weak ferrosilicon market in Europe, these actions are within our control and can deliver long-term benefits regardless of market conditions. At the same time, the fundamentals of our core markets are improving. Steel demand is forecast to grow next year, which supports our ferroalloy businesses.

Trade protection is working. Silicon metal index prices rose 10% in the U.S. and 6% in Europe in the third quarter. And the European investigation into Chinese silicon metal is now underway.

Our strategic direction is very clear: build a leading Western critical materials platform. We completed our first shipments in the third quarter and additional shipments are expected in the fourth quarter. We have demonstrated that our existing furnaces can produce these critical materials quickly and with minimal capital investment.

Our discussions on critical materials with the U.S. government continue to advance and Coreshell's $50 million Department of Energy award gives us further confidence in our investment in silicon battery technology.

Operator, we are ready for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We will now take our first question from the line of Nick Giles from B. Riley Securities.

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Henry Hearle

This is Henry Hearle on for Nick. I first wanted to ask, are the 5 plant closures view that European demand does not fully recover? Or do they more assume that Venezuela backfills those tons?

Marco Levi

Well, we -- as you know, we have quite a broad asset footprint, and we are looking at different combinations to increase our asset utilization at -- to 80% from an average of 60%. We forecast demand growing better at higher rate in U.S. in the next few years. And as a consequence, we are talking about restarting Venezuela and restarting Selma in the United States.

We have disclosed in my speech the decision on South African plants. We are not going to disclose anything else about the additional assets as we need to engage other stakeholders and employee representatives before disclosing our plan in a more [indiscernible].

Henry Hearle

Got it. Understood, Marco. And then also, at this time, are you able to provide any more details on the status of the Venezuela permit?

Marco Levi

Yes. We should get the license anytime soon. At the same time, we have started our discussions in Venezuela to restart the plant. The main topic is electricity supply and reliable electricity supply. As you know, we can easily ramp up and down our furnaces. We have this flexibility running electrical furnaces, but we need electricity reliability. The license is required to close any kind of negotiation.

Henry Hearle

Understood. And then looking at the critical materials business, how do you expect shipments to ramp from 3Q to 4Q? And how many other materials might be involved in those shipments?

Marco Levi

Yes. Well, in this quarter, we are producing again ferromolybdenum. We re-run productions of ferrovanadium and ferrochrome low carbon. We seem to be able also to run trials on ferroboron.

So for these 4 products, we need validation at industrial scale production, meaning we have produced ferromolybdenum industrially, but not the other 3 products that I mentioned. So it is rather premature to talk about volumes for the quarter and 2027. Our objective is to validate our production capabilities this quarter, and then we will plan for market introduction.

Henry Hearle

Got it. And then last one for me. It looks like that the EU could possibly make the antidumping duties on China retroactive. Could you provide any more color on that or what you're hearing?

Marco Levi

Yes. I mean we have put a lot of pressure because this has been a never-ending saga. I want to remind you that we asked for safeguards on silicon metal and the fact that safeguards were not applied to silicon metal has caused a disaster in terms of results of safeguards for ferrosilicon.

Now we have changed our approach. We are going for antidumping review against China. That interim review was officially started on September 1. And on October 23, EU had announced monitoring of imports. What it means is that the Union is monitoring the imports of silicon metal outside of China via all the 27 EU countries.

And monitoring the import has a couple of effects. One, you prevent stockpiling materials -- exported materials from China before the European Union decide on the new measures. And second, the registration basically allows the commission to eventually decide to apply measures retroactively. So this is a good result. But again, we are not where we want to be.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] There are no further questions at this time. I would like to hand back over to Marco Levi for closing remarks.

Marco Levi

Thank you, Sandra, and thank you all. In a nutshell, we are executing on what we can control, and we look forward to updating you on our progress during the next call. Thank you again for your participation, and have a great day.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.