블랙스톤 미네랄스(BSM) 2026년 3분기 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜: DCF 9,300만 달러 달성, 분배금 인상

핵심 요약

• 블랙스톤 미네랄스는 2026년 3분기 순이익이 약 5,200만 달러라고 발표했으며, 여기에는 약 3,000만 달러의 비현금 미실현 손실이 포함되어 있습니다.
• 조정 EBITDA는 1억 400만 달러를 기록했으며, 분배 가능 현금 흐름은 9,300만 달러로 원유 및 천연가스 생산량 증가가 이를 뒷받침했습니다.
• 분기 배당금은 2분기 연속 인상되어 유닛당 0.35달러를 기록했으며, 이는 연환산 1.40달러에 해당하고 1.25배의 커버리지를 유지했습니다.
• 광물 및 로열티 생산량은 전분기 대비 6% 증가했으며, 이는 헤인즈빌/보저 천연가스 생산량 증가와 퍼미안 원유 생산량 증가에 따른 것입니다.
• 확장된 쉘비 트러프 지역을 포함하는 개발 협약은 현재 총 약 140만 에이커에 달합니다. 카탈리스트는 기존 협약에 따른 첫 두 개의 개발 유정 시추에 착수했으며, 2027년 상반기에 생산이 시작될 것으로 예상됩니다.
• 경영진은 쉘비 트러프 천연가스 생산량이 2027년까지 꾸준히 증가할 것으로 예상하는 한편, 재무적 유연성과 지속 가능한 배당 성장을 강조했습니다.

주요 재무 데이터

원유 및 콘덴세이트는 이번 분기 석유 및 가스 매출의 거의 3분의 2를 창출했습니다. 경영진은 원자재 가격, 특히 원유 가격이 긍정적인 환경을 유지했다고 밝혔습니다.

사업 및 운영 성과

전분기 대비 생산량 증가에는 헤인즈빌/보저의 천연가스 생산량 확대와 퍼미안의 원유 생산량 증가가 반영되었습니다. 또한 경영진은 작업자들이 미완성 시추정(DUC) 작업을 진행함에 따라 퍼미안과 바켄 지역에서 추가 유정이 상업 생산에 들어간 점도 원인으로 꼽았습니다.

쉘비 트러프는 블랙스톤 미네랄스의 성장 전략에서 핵심적인 위치를 차지하고 있습니다. 카탈리스트, 기타 작업자 개발 및 레버넌트 협약은 합산하여 약 140만 에이커를 포괄합니다. 회사는 또한 활발한 쉘비 트러프 구역 내 전통적인 임대 계약하에 약 5만 에이커를 보유하고 있습니다.

아다마스는 계속해서 유정을 가동하고 있으며, 레버넌트의 첫 생산은 2026년 말까지 이루어질 것으로 예상됩니다. 카탈리스트는 기존 협약에 따라 첫 2개 개발 유정의 시추에 착수했으며, 2027년 상반기에 생산이 시작될 예정입니다.

더 넓은 쉘비 트러프 입지 전반에 걸쳐 엑스코, 에이펙스, 록클리프, BPX는 블랙스톤 미네랄스 부지에서 총 10개 유정의 시추 또는 완공 대기 작업을 진행 중입니다. 경영진은 추가 인허가 신청 건수가 향후 몇 달간 시추 활동 증가를 나타낸다고 말했습니다.

계획된 인수 프로그램에 따라 회사는 확장된 쉘비 트러프 순광물 면적의 약 60%는 기존 보유지에서, 약 40%는 인수를 통해 확보할 것으로 예상합니다. 경영진은 인수 프로그램이 절반 이상 완료되었으며 추가적인 볼트온 인수 기회를 계속 검토하고 있다고 말했습니다.

경영진 전망

경영진은 기존 개발 협약에 따른 유정들이 생산을 시작함에 따라 쉘비 트러프의 천연가스 생산량이 2027년까지 꾸준히 증가할 것으로 예상합니다. 회사는 이러한 프로그램이 시간이 지남에 따라 더 높은 생산량, 현금 흐름 및 배당을 뒷받침할 수 있다고 믿습니다.

원유의 경우, 경영진은 퍼미안과 바켄 지역에서 관심도가 높은 개발 활동과 지속적인 유정 완공 작업이 물량을 뒷받침할 것으로 기대합니다. 다만 작업자들의 활동은 원자재 가격과 2027년 자본 예산 상황에 따라 달라질 수 있습니다.

회사는 배당 성숙 및 증대와 개발 및 인수에 대한 투자의 균형을 맞출 계획입니다. 경영진은 기존 신용 공도가 현재 인수 프로그램에 충분하다고 밝혔으며, 재무제표의 유연성을 유지하는 것이 최우선 과제임을 재확인했습니다.

리스크 및 주요 점검 사항

• 원자재 가격은 특히 원유 중심 지역에서 작업자의 활동, 생산량 성장 및 자본 지출에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.
• 신규 생산의 속도와 시기는 작업자가 계획된 유정을 완공하고 연결하는 시점에 따라 좌우됩니다.
• 경영진은 쉘비 트러프 생산량이 확대됨에 따라 장기적으로 추가적인 수송 용량이 필요할 것임을 인정하면서도, 관련 인프라 프로젝트가 이미 진행 중이라고 밝혔습니다.
• 자본 배분은 인수, 잠재적 우선주 상환, 배당 및 재무제표 유연성 확보 간의 균형을 맞추어야 합니다.

애널리스트 Q&A 주요 내용

애널리스트들은 확장된 카탈리스트 협약, 인수 자금 조달, 생산량 성장 및 배당 정책에 주목했습니다. 경영진은 카탈리스트 확장 계약의 배경이 된 구체적인 지하 평가 결과를 공개하지는 않았으나, 확장 계약과 경쟁적 마케팅 과정은 쉘비 트러프 및 헤인즈빌/보저 기회에 대한 업계 전반의 높은 관심을 반영한다고 말했습니다.

생산량과 관련해 경영진은 아다마스가 지속해서 유정을 가동하고 레버넌트와 카탈리스트가 생산을 시작함에 따라 천연가스 생산량이 꾸준히 증가할 것으로 예상합니다. 원유 물량은 원자재 가격과 작업자 예산에 따라 유동적이지만, 블루 에어로의 활동과 추가적인 퍼미안 및 바켄 유정 완공의 수혜를 입을 것입니다.

인프라와 관련하여 경영진은 쉘비 트러프의 장기적 성장을 위해 더 많은 수송 용량이 필요할 것이라고 설명했습니다. 다만 윌리엄스 및 모멘텀과 연계된 프로젝트를 포함해 지속적인 투자가 이루어지고 있음을 지적하며, 개발이 진행됨에 따라 대규모 수송 제약이 발생하지는 않을 것으로 예상한다고 밝혔습니다.

경영진은 기존 배당 전략을 유지했습니다. 유닛당 0.35달러로의 인상은 회사 전망에 대한 자신감을 반영한 것이지만, 향후 결정 또한 재무적 유연성과 시장 상황을 지속적으로 고려할 것입니다.

실적 발표 녹취록 전문

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the Black Stone Minerals Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions].

I will now hand the conference over to Natalie Liddell, Vice President, Corporate Planning. Natalie, please go ahead.

Natalie Liddell

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us by phone or online for Black Stone Minerals Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded and will be available on our website along with the earnings release issued last night.

Before we start, I'd like to advise you that we will be making forward-looking statements during this call about our plans, expectations and assumptions regarding our future performance. These statements involve risks that may cause our actual results to differ materially from the results expressed or implied in our forward-looking statements. For a discussion of these risks, you should refer to the cautionary information about forward-looking statements in our press release from yesterday and the Risk Factors section of our 2025 10-K. We may refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures that we believe are useful in evaluating our performance.

Reconciliation of these measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure and other information about these non-GAAP metrics are described in our earnings press release yesterday from yesterday, which can be found on our website at www.blackstoneminerals.com. Joining me on the call from the company are Taylor DeWalch, Co-CEO and President; Fowler Carter, Co-CEO and President; Steve Putman, Senior Vice President and General Counsel; Chris Bonner, Senior Vice President; Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer.

I'll now turn the call over to Taylor.

Taylor DeWalch

Thanks, Natalie. Good morning, and thank you all for joining us. We had a strong third quarter with growth in both oil and natural gas production. Higher volumes together with continued support from elevated oil prices contributed to increased cash flow compared to the second quarter. With these results and continued progress toward natural gas production growth we raised our distribution for the second consecutive quarter while maintaining prudent coverage.

As we look ahead, we continue to monitor commodity market conditions and what they may mean for operator activity and our production outlook. We also took an important step in advancing our [ Shelby Trough ] strategy with the amendment and expansion of our Catalyst agreement. It brings a broader portion of our position into a contracted development program and moves us closer to realizing the production potential of our mineral inventory.

These successful results for the third quarter highlight the strength of Black Stone's unique and differentiated strategy. We are both actively managing the portfolio across the [ Lower 48 ] through current leasing, while also promoting significant growth through our development agreements on high interest acreage. The combination of these strategies along with a significant unleased position across the country that we continue to explore, provides a solid foundation with substantial growth opportunities.

As we look to 2027, our focus is on continued execution under our existing agreements as these development programs progress and grow. Together with ongoing activity across our broader portfolio, we expect these programs to drive higher production and support distribution growth over time. As we evaluate that progress, we'll balance distributions and investment in growth in a way that preserves our financial flexibility.

With that, I'll turn it over to Fowler to discuss how we are advancing our growth strategy and what the progress across these programs means for Black Stone.

Fowler Carter

Thanks, Taylor. A key focus of our growth strategy is advancing development of our substantial legacy mineral position, the expanded Shelby Trough. Targeted acquisitions and development agreements help us turn that inventory into natural gas production and cash flow. Together, these efforts go beyond any single transaction to build a portfolio of development programs that we expect to contribute to production growth over time.

At the conclusion of our planned acquisition program, we expect approximately 60% of our expanded Shelby Trough net mineral acreage to come from our legacy holdings and approximately 40% from the acquisition program. This reflects how targeted additions build on our existing acreage position and enhance the overall development opportunity. Our expanded catalyst agreement reflects our strategy of working with operators to move more of our acreage towards delineation, development and ultimately production, strong industry interest, during the marketing process, reinforced our confidence in the long-term potential of the position. This amendment combined with our other high interest development agreements brings the total area covered by our catalysts, [Indiscernible] and revenant agreements to approximately 1.4 million gross acres.

Additionally, we have approximately 50,000 gross acres under traditional leases in active areas throughout the Shelby Trough. We are seeing development activity continue to build across the acreage. [ Adamas ] is bringing additional wells online, [ Revenant ] first production is expected by year-end, and Catalyst has spud its first 2 development wells under the original agreement with production expected in the first half of '27. Across our broader Shelby Trough position, Exco, Apex, Rockcliff and BPX currently have 10 combined wells drilling or awaiting completion on our acreage, and additional drilling permit filings suggest increased drilling activity in the coming months.

We continue to actively market acreage and work with operators throughout our mineral portfolio to put more of our position into play. Strong leasing activity and higher lease bonus revenues reflect those efforts, generating revenue today while creating opportunities for future drilling and production. At the core of our growth outlook are our Shelby Trough development programs. With these agreements now in place and development advancing, we expect significant growth in natural gas production and cash flow. We believe this expected growth, together with opportunities elsewhere in our mineral portfolio provides a strong foundation for growing returns to unitholders in the years ahead.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Chris to cover the financial results.

Chris Bonner

Thanks, Fowler, and good morning. Mineral Royalty production during the third quarter averaged 34.5 [Indiscernible] per day, while total production averaged 35.6 [Indiscernible] per day. [Indiscernible] royalty production increased 6% from the second quarter driven by both higher natural gas volumes from the Haynesville Bossier and higher oil volumes from the Permian. Commodity prices remained supportive during the quarter, particularly for oil.

Our average realized price, excluding the impact of derivative settlements, was roughly in line with last quarter. Higher production contributed to stronger oil and gas revenues and cash flow with oil and condensate accounting for nearly 2/3 of our oil and gas revenues. Net income was approximately $52 million for the quarter, which included a noncash unrealized rate of loss of about $30 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $104 million and distributable cash flow was $93 million. As previously announced, we declared a distribution of $0.35 per unit for the quarter or $1.40 on an annualized basis.

Stronger cash flow supported our second consecutive quarterly distribution increase, while allowing us to maintain 1.25x coverage for the quarter. Maintaining that balance allows us to pursue accretive opportunities while supporting our objective of sustainable distribution growth. As Taylor and Fowler discussed, programs under our development agreements, including the expansion of our Catalyst program, is positioning more of our acreage to help meet anticipated natural gas demand growth from LNG exports, power generation and industrial uses. Our proximity to Gulf Coast demand centers reinforces that opportunity. Our focus remains on advancing development with the goal of growing production, cash flow and distributions for unitholders.

With that, we'll open it up for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of John Annis with Texas Capital Bank.

질의응답

John Annis

My first one is on the expanded caters agreement. What did the pilot work or subsurface data show that gave both parties the confidence to expand the contract area by 730,000 gross acres.

Fowler Carter

John, Fowler here. Catalysts collected a lot of data on that well. And as we've said, we're excited to expand the contract here with them, and we're not going to jump in front of them on comments to that. But I think the expansion of the contract speaks to answer the question.

John Annis

That make sense. For my follow-up, production showed some nice growth sequentially. Can you walk us through kind of the main drivers of that growth and how we should think about volumes over the next couple of quarters as the remaining [Indiscernible] wells come online?

Taylor DeWalch

Yes, I can start with that. So looking at the Shelby Trough, Adamas continues to turn wells on, and we expect that to continue and then are looking forward, as we mentioned, to the first revenue wells coming on and [Indiscernible] so generally on the gas side, we expect that to just be a steady ramp as we go into next year.

On the oil side, certainly encouraged by the higher interest development with Blue Aero and think that, that will continue to show growth in oil volumes. And then we've also just seen broadly across the Permian and Bakken more wells coming online as operators work through DUCs. I think there it is a little bit more price sensitive, and we'll see what operators decide to do with our CapEx budgets going into next year, but we're certainly expecting that to continue to be a strong driver of our volumes and revenue.

John Annis

Got it. If I could sneak one last one in, maybe more on the macro side. with several operators advancing programs across the Shelby Trough, are you guys seeing any constraint around takeaway capacity services or anything else that could limit the pace of development as activity scales?

Taylor DeWalch

Yes. Thanks, John. This is Taylor. I'll touch on that. I think when we look at takeaway capacity on the Shelby Trough, that's been a conversation that's been had between us, the operators and potential midstream gatherers and long-haul pipes for quite some time now, trying to get ready ahead of the volumes coming online from the Shelby Trough. I think we're all excited about the potential of the size and volumes that we're all forecasting to come out of that area. But over the long haul, we're going to need some additional capacity. And I'd say those projects are well underway, especially I think if we specifically call out the deal between Williams and momentum, I certainly think there's capital being injected into that area.

And we're excited to have some more capacity that goes south towards the LNG corridor and other demand centers kind of towards some of the other LNG facilities such as Venture Global and other projects underway. So I think that those projects are well underway, and we shouldn't see any takeaway or large-scale takeaway constraints as we move forward the supply curve.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Tim Rezvan with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Timothy Rezvan

We appreciated the detailed update about your operating agreements in the release. So I just wanted to ask kind of what that caters expansion, where do you stand with resource capture at this point? You've spent about $335 million. You have a number of agreements lined up. Are you done? Is there more to do? Just kind of trying to understand your appetite at this point?

Taylor DeWalch

Tim, I think the best way to answer that is stay tuned. That's [Indiscernible].

Taylor DeWalch

Tim, this is Taylor. I'll just add on to that a little bit, too. I mean, I think we continue to move forward with our acquisition program. We've talked about it in the past that I think we said a couple of quarters ago, we're about halfway through it. So we're more than halfway through at this point. But we're still seeing opportunities to continue to bolt on to get to the type of scale that we really desire in order to place the acreage into these development agreements to also help incentivize the operators.

So we're over halfway through and continue to move forward with acquisitions in that area. One other comment I might just make and this goes back to one of the previous questions as well on caters is we had a pretty strong competitive marketing process on these expanded areas. So I don't think that it's tied to any specific well, but more thinking about the broader area and just general excitement on the expanding Shelby Trough in the Haynesville/Bossier play. And that covering, like Fowler said in his prepared remarks, well over 1 million gross acres that we've not got -- now have in these contracted agreements.

Timothy Rezvan

Okay. I think I understand your body language pretty clearly on that. If we think about the capital structure at this point, it looks like you're about a little over half drawn on your credit facility. I think the next redetermination in the spring. How should we think about sources of capital for any incremental acquisitions? I know you have the preferred that's sort of out there. So how do you think about capital structure to support this growth that is clearly underway.

Taylor DeWalch

Yes. I'll maybe just touch on it quickly, Tim, and then Chris can jump in [Indiscernible] one of the keys for us is to stay flexible from a balance sheet perspective. I think we've continued to do that. I think when we look at the current cycle that we're in, we think about how do we utilize this elevated oil price cycle to make the business better. And we think we can do that through both 2 consecutive quarters of distributions, but also focusing on maintaining a clean balance sheet and then growing the business for the long haul. That's really what we've been focused on. And I think that our agreements and continuing to bring in new agreements continues to kind of fortify that strategy.

And as we think about the sort of financial flexibility there are other uses of capital that are out there from an acquisition or a preferred standpoint. The redemption window comes up about a year from now. So I think we'll continue to weigh those different uses of capital as we progress over the next 12 months.

Chris Bonner

Yes, I think the only thing I'll add to that is we do feel that our existing credit facility is sufficient to meet our needs when it comes to the acquisition program.

Timothy Rezvan

And if I could just sneak one more in. You surprised us with the distribution increase this quarter, and it looks like ample coverage for that payment. In the past, the Board has tried to maintain a fixed distribution despite volatile gas markets. But is your expectation to try to keep that $0.35 distribution? Or is the Board maybe going to be more tactical as prices at and flow?

Taylor DeWalch

Thanks, Tim. No, I think our strategy around the distribution stays the same. We raised it because we felt comfortable about where our forecast stands, which is what we've signaled to key guys in the past. So we're happy to be able to recommend and get the approval for the distribution growth. And like I said, we continue to look out to the forecast for just maintaining kind of flexibility related to all of our financials.

Operator

We have reached the end of the Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to Taylor DeWalch, Co-Chief Executive Officer and President, for closing remarks.

Taylor DeWalch

Thank you all for joining us this morning. Really excited to both announce continued growth in the Shelby Trough as well as strong quarterly results and look forward to speaking to you all again next quarter.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.