아드모어 시핑(ASC) 2026년 3분기 실적 발표회: 4분기 MR TCE 일당 57,600달러 기록

핵심 요약

• 아드모어 시핑(Ardmore Shipping)은 2026년 3분기 조정 순이익 6,300만 달러(주당 0.40달러), 조정 EBITDA 2,880만 달러를 기록했다고 발표했습니다.
• 회사는 조정 순이익의 3분의 2에 해당하는 주당 0.27달러의 분기 배당금을 선언하며 16분기 연속 현금 배당을 기록했습니다.
• MR 탱커의 3분기 일일 TCE 운임은 2만 7,000달러를 기록했습니다. 4분기 예약은 45% 진행된 상황에서 일평균 5만 7,600달러를 기록했으며, 최근 계약 건은 일일 8만 달러를 초과했습니다.
• 케미컬 탱커는 3분기에 일일 2만 3,300달러, 현재까지 60%가 예약된 4분기에는 일일 3만 100달러를 기록했습니다. 지난 한 달 동안 핸디사이즈 케미컬 탱커 체결 운임은 일평균 5만 달러에 육박했습니다.
• 영업 현금 손익분기점은 일일 1만 800달러 수준을 유지하여 현재 용선료 대비 상당한 영업 레버리지를 제공했습니다. 해당 분기 가동률(On-hire utilization)은 99%에 달했습니다.
• 경영진은 지정학적 무역 혼란, 낮은 석유제품 재고량, 수송 거리 증가가 탱커 수요를 지속적으로 뒷받침하는 반면, 노후화된 MR 및 핸디사이즈 선대는 실질 공급을 제한하고 있다고 밝혔습니다.

핵심 재무 데이터

사업 및 영업 실적

아드모어는 전체 선대의 약 85%를 스팟 시장에 노출한 상태로 4분기에 진입하여 탱커 운임의 급격한 상승세를 활용할 수 있는 입지를 확보했습니다. 경영진은 현재 시장 상황을 본격적인 계절적 성수기에 접어들기도 전에 성수기 겨울철 시장과 유사한 양상을 보인다고 설명했습니다.

회사는 무역 경로 교란, 높은 정제 마진, 석유제품 재고 고갈을 탱커 수요 강세의 원인으로 꼽았습니다. 경영진은 글로벌 석유제품 재고 감소량이 600척 이상의 MR 화물량과 맞먹는 수준이라고 밝혔습니다. 또한 유럽의 항공유 재고는 연초의 절반 수준에 그치고 있으며, 미국의 가솔린 및 디젤 재고는 5년 평균치를 하회하고 있다고 덧붙였습니다.

장거리 운항 패턴도 선박 가동률을 끌어올리고 있습니다. 미국 멕시코만 연안에서 유럽 및 아시아로 향하는 수출량이 전년 동기 대비 증가했으며, 동향 MR 나프타 수송량은 5배 급증했습니다. 경영진은 중국, 한국, 인도에서의 수출 활동 증가가 추가적인 화물 이동을 뒷받침할 수 있다고 덧붙였습니다.

선대 공급은 노후화로 인해 계속 제한되고 있습니다. MR 수주잔량은 기존 선대의 18% 수준인 반면, 현재 MR의 절반이 5년 이내에 20년을 초과하게 됩니다. 핸디사이즈 탱커의 경우 수주잔량이 6%에 불과하며, 5년 내에 전체 선대의 75%가 20년을 초과하게 됩니다. 경영진은 강화된 안전, 환경 및 규제 준수 요건으로 인해 노후 선박의 실질 가동률이 하락하고 있다고 전했습니다.

아드모어는 2013년 건조된 선박 1척을 3,430만 달러에 매각했으며, 10월 중순에 인도 조치를 완료했습니다. 또한 2척의 핸디사이즈 탱커 신조선 옵션을 행사하여 2028년부터 인도가 예정된 총 6척의 선박 발주를 확정했습니다. 이 선박들은 정제 석유제품, 고성능 화학제품, 식용유 및 대체 연료를 운송하도록 설계되었습니다.

경영진 가이던스

경영진은 2026년 남은 기간 동안의 선대 자본 지출(CAPEX)을 200만 달러로 추정했으며, 2027년에는 1,300만 달러로 전망했습니다.

회사는 현재 예약된 수치 외의 분기 전체 TCE 전망치는 제공하지 않았습니다. 경영진은 일일 8만 달러를 초과하는 최근 MR 예약 실적이 4분기 예약 평균치인 일일 5만 7,600달러를 넘어서는 모멘텀을 나타내고 있지만, 운임 예측에는 여전히 불확실성이 존재한다고 강조했습니다.

아드모어는 선대 현대화, 기회주의적 선박 매각, 잠재적 인수합병의 균형을 맞추면서 조정 순이익의 3분의 2를 지속해서 배당할 계획입니다. 경영진은 이러한 자본 배치 수단들이 동시에 실행되기보다는 시장 사이클의 서로 다른 시점에 활용될 수 있다고 언급했습니다.

리스크 및 주요 관전 포인트

• 4분기 TCE 수치는 이용 가능한 MR 운항 일수의 45%, 케미컬 탱커 운항 일수의 60%만을 반영하고 있어 실적이 스팟 운임 변화에 노출되어 있습니다.
• 경영진은 현재 고운임 환경의 지속 기간과 상승 폭을 예측하기 어렵다는 점을 인정했습니다.
• 지정학적 혼란이 수송 경로 장기화를 뒷받침하고 있으나, 도전적인 영업 환경과 화물 흐름의 변화를 야기하고 있기도 합니다.
• 노후 선박은 안전, 환경 및 규제 기준에 따라 우량 용선주들의 검증 조사를 점점 더 엄격하게 받아 실질 가동률이 저하되고 있습니다.
• 6척의 신조선 프로그램은 선도 자본 약정을 추가하며, 이는 32%의 실질 레버리지에 반영되어 있습니다.

애널리스트 Q&A 하이라이트

애널리스트들은 뛰어난 현금 창출력과 자산 가치가 아드모어의 자본 배치 우선순위를 바꿀 수 있는지에 주목했습니다. 경영진은 배당, 잠재적 자사주 매입, 선별적 선대 투자, 노후 선박의 기회주의적 매각을 조합하여 유연한 접근 방식을 유지할 것이라고 답했습니다.

선대 전략과 관련해 경영진은 현재의 현대화된 선대와 높은 스팟 시장 노출도를 바탕으로 겨울철 시장에 진입하는 것에 유연하고 자신 있는 입장을 나타냈습니다. 회사는 추가 사이클 동안 노후 선박을 계속 보유할 준비가 되어 있지만, 매수자가 충분히 매력적인 가격을 제시한다면 매각을 고려할 것입니다.

또한 경영진은 선박 1척을 반환한 후 현재는 용선(Charter-in) 중인 선박이 없지만, 외부 선박 용선은 여전히 아드모어의 전략 수단 중 하나라고 밝혔습니다. 향후 추진되는 용선 계약은 선박의 품질, 기술 관리, 고객 적합성에 관한 아드모어의 기준을 충족해야 합니다.

실적 발표 전화회의 전문

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Ardmore Shipping's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Note that today's call is being recorded and an audio webcast and presentation are available in the Investor Relations section of the company's website, www.ardmorshipping.com. We will conduct a question-and-answer session after the opening remarks. Instructions will follow at that time. A replay of the conference call will be accessible anytime during the next week by dialing 1 888660-6345 164 517-4150 and entering passcode 402 19. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Gernot Ruppelt, Chief Executive Officer at Ardmore Shipping.

Gernot Ruppelt

Good morning, and welcome to Ardmore Shipping's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. First, let me ask our President, Bart Kelleher, to discuss forward-looking statements.

Bart Kelleher

Thanks, Garnet. Turning to Slide 2. Please allow me to remind you that our discussion today contains forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements is contained in our third quarter 2026 earnings release, which is available on our website. And I'll now turn the call back to Gernot.

Gernot Ruppelt

Thank you, Bart. Let me outline the format of today's call, which you can see here on Slide 3. First, I'll provide a brief overview of our third quarter highlights. Thereafter, I will hand over to Bart, who will cover the market outlook and update you on our financial and operating performance. Then I will conclude the presentation before opening up the call for questions. Turning to Slide 4, which covers our earnings highlights. We are pleased to report another strong result with third quarter adjusted earnings of $63 million or $0.40 per share. Geopolitical dislocation continues to reshape trade patterns, absorbing tonnage and boosting TCE rates and even stronger momentum has been building into the fourth quarter.

We continue to execute on our capital allocation policy -- part more is declaring a dividend of $0.27 per share, consistent with our policy of paying out 2/3 of adjusted earnings. During the third quarter, we agreed to sell 1 of our 2013 Baltimore for $34.3 million, and the ship was subsequently delivered in mid-October. And as previously announced, we exercised options for 2 Handysize tanker newbuildings bringing our total order to 6 vessels with delivery dates starting from 2028.

Moving on to our TCE performance on Slide 5. Our third quarter bookings reflect the firm market during what is a seasonally slower period. And moving into the fourth quarter, rates have been accelerating meaningfully. Our MR tankers earned $27,000 per day for the third quarter and $57,600 per day so far in the fourth quarter with 45% booked. As you can see in the chart here, these levels are roughly double the TCEs achieved during the same period last year. And if you were to zoom in further, our recent bookings are north of $80,000 per day. Our chemical tankers earned $23,300 per day for the third quarter and $30,100 per day so far in the fourth quarter with 60% booked. With some additional context, our Handysize chemical tankers, the focus of our new building program have concluded average charter rates of nearly $50,000 per day over the last month. Our operating leverage is exceptionally strong with TCE earnings at a multiple of our operating cash breakeven of $10,800 per day.

Turning to Slide 6. Here, we outlined the company's approach to capital allocation whereby we continue to return capital to shareholders while investing in fleet renewal and growth. At the start of the year, we increased our dividend payout ratio to 2/3 of adjusted earnings. And today, we are declaring our 16th consecutive quarterly cash dividend. As mentioned, we have contracted 6 Handysize tanker newbuildings with delivery starting in 2028. These highly flexible assets can carry the full range of mainstream oil and refined products as well as the majority of advanced chemical cargoes, edible oils and alternative fuels.

This year, we sold 2 older vessels at very attractive prices. While last year, we had acquired 3 modern secondhand MRs at prices around 30% below current market levels. And we retained considerable financial flexibility across a wide range of market conditions with an operating cash breakeven of just $10,800 per day and ample debt capacity. With that, I'd like to hand it over to Bart for the market outlook.

Bart Kelleher

Thanks, Gernot. Turning to Slide 8 and the market outlook. Starting on the top right, Global seaborne crude shipments are essentially back to pre-conflict levels. The chart on the bottom left shows crack spreads averaging over $60 per barrel on WTI and over 50 on Brent, up from the $20 range at the start of the year. This is supporting robust refining activity as depicted in the bottom right. The IEA forecast global throughput to rise by more than 1 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter with further growth through 2027, supporting higher product exports and product tanker utilization. .

Moving to Slide 9 and the inventory restocking opportunity ahead. Disruption to crude and product flows has created supply gaps in several regions. Inventories have been drawn, leaving product stocks at multiyear lows. The chart on the top right shows European jet fuel now half of what it was at the start of the year, sitting well below its 5-year range. Looking to the 2 charts on the bottom, U.S. gasoline and diesel are both below their 5-year lows as well. Rebuilding these stocks will add an incremental layer of product tanker demand. Just to frame this, the decline in global product stocks equates to over 600 MR equivalent cargoes.

Additionally, several countries are planning to increase their strategic reserves, potentially further lengthening the restocking cycle and corresponding product tanker demand. Turning to Slide 10 and how geopolitical shifts in refinery dislocation are reshaping global trade. Energy security remains a fundamental priority with government's diversifying import sources and securing seaborne supply chains. At the same time, refining and consumption are increasingly dislocated. The continued trend of closures in the West is being replaced by new capacity in the East, extending voyage distances. On top of these structural drivers, trade disruption is absorbing fleet capacity. The map shows a few representative examples.

Volumes from the U.S. Gulf to Europe and Asia have risen significantly year-on-year, and MR Naptha East is up fivefold. Moving to Slide 11. I where we highlight the favorable supply dynamics. Starting on the left with the MR segment. The order book represents 18% of the fleet. And within 5 years, half of all existing MRs will be over 20 years old. Moving to the Handysize segment on the right, which, as a reminder, is the focus of our newbuilding program, the order book is just 6% of the current fleet and within 5 years, 75% of Handy's will be over 20 years old that 17 million tons approaching the scrapping window to warping the 1 million tons on order. Slide 12 further shows how the aging fleet impacts effective supply.

Given rigorous safety, environmental and compliance standards, older tankers are increasingly scrutinized by top-tier charters. As the chart highlights, utilization meaningfully declines as the vessel ages. And even when older vessels are not scrapped, effective supply is reduced accordingly. Moving now to our financial and operating performance. Turning to Slide 14, where we detail our financial position. We continue to generate robust cash flow by optimizing TCE performance and tightly managing costs, supporting our low operating cash breakeven level of $10,800 per day. were $11,700 per day, including dry dock and CapEx. Looking ahead, including the forward commitments associated with our newbuilding program, effective leverage stands at 32%.

Turning to Slide 15. Again, highlighting our third quarter results with adjusted EBITDA of $28.8 million and adjusted EPS of $0.40. The EBITDA reconciliation in our fourth quarter guidance can be found in the appendix. Turning to Slide 16 for operational highlights. -- far well-being continues to be a top priority, and we acknowledge the key role our seafarers play in an increasingly challenging operating environment. During the quarter, we achieved an impressive 99% on-hire utilization, supported by our very active Ship to Shore collaboration with innovation continuing to drive strong efficiencies. For the remainder of the year, fleet CapEx is estimated at $2 million, and we forecast $13 million for 2027. With that, I'm happy to hand the call back to Gernot and look forward to answering any questions at the end.

Gernot Ruppelt

Thank you, Bart. Moving to Slide 18 in summary. Ardmore is well positioned and capitalizing on a strong market. We are capturing TCE rates at large multiples of our cash breakeven with MR earnings so far in the fourth quarter of almost $60,000 per day and recent bookings point even higher as discussed earlier on the call. Near-term disruption and inventory restocking needs create strong immediate drivers in addition to compelling structural long-term demand growth and an aging fleet. We are distributing 2/3 of adjusted earnings to shareholders while renewing the fleet through targeted investment in line with the company's dynamic approach to capital allocation. As always, our decisions are guided by our long-term strategy strong governance and a commitment to creating value through market cycles. We now welcome your questions. .

Operator

[Operator Instructions] First, we will hear from John Chappell at Evercore ISI. Please go ahead, Jon.

질의응답

Jonathan Chappell

Thank you. Okay. Slide 6 is your policies and priorities that you've had in place for a few years, and they've obviously served you quite well. but we're in incredible times right now. And the cash flow generation, the asset value movements we've never seen before in this industry. Does that change the way that you think about these priorities into '27 and beyond? And if not, the priorities themselves but maybe the timing of how you look to introduce them or potentially accelerate them?

Gernot Ruppelt

That's a terrific question, John. And I'd like to think we have been and we'll continue to approach that topic in a very nonbinary way, where as a business, we continue to make sure that we return capital to shareholders. Well, of course, there's any business, you also have to invest in your future. But those different levers don't have to be always pulled simultaneously or within any given quarter, but rather need to be looked at kind of through the game, through the cycle. And for us, we'll continue to adjust those levers on right now our accelerated dividend payout ratio at a different time, we embraced share buybacks on the fleet renewal side, very well-timed acquisitions in the second hand market last year and equally some well-timed new building constructions that we've committed to at pre-year-end prices and then layered as various tranches at options throughout the year in all those situations kind of really moved early before the market and then also continuing to assess opportunities to take some value off the table by pruning some of our older ships if we're seeing sort of the right price and we'll continue to approach it exactly in that fashion.

Jonathan Chappell

Okay. And then as a follow-up, again, extraordinary, typically, when you have this kind of quarter-to-date level rate, I would tend to fade them because typically, they don't last. They're not strong for this long. However, as you insinuated in 1 of your product tanker peers spoke to last week. They're actually continuing to march higher. So is there any way to kind of give us a sense of where you sit today relative to that average? And then given the inventory slides, especially that Bart laid out, maybe how to think about magnitude and direction from the rest of this quarter, understanding it's very difficult to predict. So maybe just kind of where we are today versus the average is a good way to start.

Gernot Ruppelt

Yes, acknowledging some of those challenges of a true prediction, but at the same time, grounding us and some of the facts that we are seeing -- that we're observing today. Just looking at the market around you, it feels like a winter market already before it is even winter. If you look at refining margins, we had, of course, some data update during the slide show. But in very simple terms, refining margins today are double of what they were before the situation in Iran kicked off earlier this year. And those levels are yet again double of what they would have been at the start of the decade. So none of this is set to change anytime soon.

Atlantic product markets remain extremely tight, as you can see with some of the significant product deficiencies in some markets. And then at the same time, some barrels, of course, coming out of the Middle East. And you see an overall structural Chinese refining surplus, probably kicking in to an even higher gear. If you consider the recent publication of higher export quotas from Korea -- sorry, from China, at the same time, you also saw that Korea made some announcements with regard to expanding the export -- export capacities. And India typically gets quite busy this time of the year as well. So we continue to see these significant swings. Overall, the barrels are back, but the efficiency is not. And you, of course, now see product tankers continuing to connect these inefficient commodity markets in a very efficient way.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Next will be Omar Nokta at Clarkson.

Omar Nokta

Pretty a good update. Yes. So clearly, 3, even though it was softer quarter-over-quarter, it was still historically very good and then 4Q is looking off the charts as you were highlighting. I wonder if you just ask about maybe somewhat related to John's first question about capital allocation. You mentioned opportunistically selling the 2013 built MR. How do you think about replacing those earnings or taking the cash and using that for a separate purpose. What are you thinking about that? When we -- in the past few quarters, you've invested in the handies via the new buildings. How are you thinking about the MR specifically? Would you look to recycle the cash into more new buildings on the MR side? Or would you look to acquire potentially modern vessels? Or is it just sit back and leave as ?

Gernot Ruppelt

Right now, we're very happy with the position that we're in, Omar. We have a very modern fleet, all equals back 85% -- roughly 85% spot as we're heading into the winter market here. As far as the future is concerned, I believe the market will guide the way. There are times to be just patient and let you position play out. And then there are other times to be decisive as we have demonstrated at the start of last year at again at the start of this year. And we continue to have a very live interactive discussion internally and with our Board about where the pockets of value closely tracking price dislocation again, bringing it back to the overall levers of our capital allocation policy, balancing returning capital to our shareholders reinvesting in the business in the long run, but also in line with what is our long-term strategy and what has been our long-term strategy that underpins those decisions.

So kind of combining a very deliberate long-term strategic focus while being nimble and opportunistic for instance, if there's an opportunity to prune some of these older ships. I will say the ARPA feet, as you see also the shift that we sold, these are fine ships, all eco built by or owned by Armor for longer than a decade with various efficiency upgrades already undertaken, and we are fully prepared and would be very happy to take them through various cycles to come and hold them for another 7 years. And we're preparing any additional upgrades and maintenance programs and driving schedules with that baseline assumption. But if somebody really wants to come and present a strong number, of course, on an older ship. We obviously have to listen. But that's probably not today, we're very happy approaching the winter as it is now and letting our position play out here.

Omar Nokta

Okay. That's fair. So basically go into the winter, see how that goes and perhaps revisit as we get into next year if I'm moving you correctly?

Gernot Ruppelt

Absolutely. And I think there's a lot of really important interesting immediate drivers that are just really starting to play out on the market. I think there's the broader picture with with the relationship with -- between the bigger ships and MRs and MRS just really stepping into that normalized relationship, kind of taking their rightful place there. And I think looking ahead as where the world is going, not to belabor the state of the world, but at times like these, this concept of having access to energy supply chain resilience or that becomes for state players as a matter of natural security and at an enterprise level for our customers, protecting these incredible refining profits through access to tonnage, we'll continue to mean 1 thing and 1 thing only, maritime assets, essential assets and the market is probably just in the process of finding how to price those assets correctly, and we're quite happy to see that play out. .

Omar Nokta

Yes, certainly. And maybe if I could, just another question. I wanted to ask about the chartering and tonnage something that you have done generally in the past as we think about opportunities there, you've got a very strong balance sheet, plenty of flexibility with all the liquidity you have and the cash. How do you think about maybe looking to more on the TCN side by going long and bringing vessels in and go short in terms of charting them out in the spot market. Is that something that's interesting, just given kind of where the market is today in terms of the separation between what a TC and what cost versus what a spot rate would get you today? And then obviously, in the context of having a very robust balance sheet.

Gernot Ruppelt

Absolutely. And I feel like these are levers we have used in the past and something we would continue to explore at the moment, well, we have actually redelivered a ship and currently don't have any ships on time charter in, but that could always be something that's very much in the mix for Armor. Of course, we're not only looking for a particular number with time short and relationships. It is also important that we have strong compatibility on brand, on technical management, on the quality of the ships, on the quality of the technical management company behind that vessel as we then move it into the auto tonnage list that it is fully up to our expectations because we have a strong following among our community of customers and charters and maintaining that is also really important for us. So in principle, very much part of the playbook, even though that might not be the case today. .

Operator

At this time, we have no other questions registered, which will conclude the question-and-answer session as well as our conference call today. I would like to thank everybody for taking the time to attend and ask that you please disconnect your lines. Have yourselves a good afternoon.