ADT 2026년 3분기 실적 발표회: Thrive 거래 진전에 힘입어 매출 4% 증가

핵심 요약

• ADT는 2026년 3분기 매출이 전년 동기 대비 4% 증가한 13억 5,000만 달러를 기록했다고 발표했습니다. 설치, 제품 및 기타 매출은 32% 증가한 2억 6,500만 달러를 기록했습니다.
• 기술 투자를 포함한 일반관리비 증가가 설치 매출의 일부 이익을 상쇄함에 따라 조정 EBITDA는 2% 감소한 6억 6,500만 달러를 기록했습니다.
• 조정 EPS는 4% 증가한 0.24달러를 기록했습니다. 금리스왑을 포함한 조정 잉여현금흐름은 4% 증가한 2억 1,700만 달러를 기록했습니다.
• 연초 대비 누적 조정 잉여현금흐름은 46% 증가해 10억 달러를 돌파했으며, 이미 2025년 연간 전체 창출액을 상회하는 수준입니다.
• ADT는 주당 10달러의 현금으로 스라이브 홀딩스(Thrive Holdings)에 인수되는 데 합의했으며, 이는 지분가치 약 76억 달러, 기업가치 약 153억 달러 규모입니다.
• 인수가 진행 중임에 따라 ADT는 이전 발표된 재무 가이던스를 철회했으며 애널리스트 질의응답 세션을 개최하지 않았습니다.

주요 재무 데이터

사업 및 영업 실적

고객 총매출 이탈률은 전년 동기 13.0%에서 13.1%로 상승했습니다. 미납 해지 증가는 자발적 해지 감소로 일부 상쇄되었습니다. 최근 12개월(TTM) 매출 회수 기간은 2.3년으로 안정적인 수준을 유지했습니다.

19만 5,000건의 총 신규 유치 건수를 통해 신규 추가된 총 월간 반복 매출(RMR)은 1,210만 달러를 기록했습니다. 직영 전문 설치 건수 및 RMR 신규 추가액은 전년 동기 대비 개선된 반면, 딜러 물량 및 대량 계정 매입은 감소했습니다.

ADT는 이번 분기 중 현금 900만 달러에 약 8,000개의 고객 계정을 인수했습니다. 또한 ADT+에 '이상 활동 알림'을 도입하고, Origin AI의 재실 감지 기술 시범 운영을 진전시켰으며, ADT Blu를 Walmart.com으로 확장하고 ADT 파트너 서비스를 출시했습니다. ADT는 이 후자 이니셔티브를 통해 2026년 11월 하순부터 애플 리테일(Apple Retail) 및 고객을 위해 일부 제품의 설치 및 서비스를 시작할 예정이라고 밝혔습니다.

ADT는 2억 2,800만 달러의 현금 및 현금성 자산을 보유하고 회전한도 대출 차입금 없이 분기를 마감했습니다. 순 레버리지 비율은 조정 EBITDA 대비 2.7배로 전년 동기의 2.8배에서 하락했습니다. 회사는 배당과 자사주 매입을 통해 이번 분기 6,400만 달러, 연초 대비 누적 7억 4,800만 달러를 주주에게 환원했습니다.

경영진 가이던스

ADT는 스라이브 홀딩스(Thrive Holdings)의 인수가 진행 중임에 따라 기존에 발표한 재무 가이던스를 철회했습니다. 경영진은 새로운 매출, 이익 또는 현금흐름 전망을 제시하지 않았습니다.

회사는 관례적인 거래 종결 조건 충족, ADT 주주 승인 및 미국 반독점 규제 당국의 승인을 거쳐 2027년 1분기에 거래가 종결될 것으로 예상한다고 밝혔습니다.

리스크 및 주요 고려사항

스라이브 홀딩스와의 거래는 주주 승인 및 미국 반독점 승인을 포함한 거래 종결 조건이 남아있습니다. 스라이브는 자기자본, 부채 및 우선주의 조합을 통해 전액 현금 인수 자금을 조달할 계획입니다.

합병 계약에는 2026년 11월 28일까지의 고숍(go-shop) 기간이 포함됩니다. ADT는 공시가 적절하거나 법적으로 요구되지 않는 한 이 과정 중의 진행 상황을 공개하지 않을 계획이라고 밝혔습니다.

운영 측면의 고려사항으로는 높아진 미납 해지, 기술 투자와 일부분 연관된 높은 일반관리비, 2025년 10월 다세대 주택 사업 매각에 따른 기저효과 등이 있습니다.

실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 전문

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the ADT Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. I will now hand the conference over to Elizabeth Landers, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Elizabeth Landers

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. Speaking on today's call are Jim DeVries, ADT's Chairman, President and CEO; and Jeff Likosar, our Chief Financial Officer. As you know, on October 29, we announced that ADT has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by Thrive Holdings. In consideration of the pending transaction, we will not be taking questions on today's call.

Additionally, we will not be providing financial guidance and are withdrawing previously issued guidance.

This morning, we issued a press release and presentation summarizing our third quarter results. Both are available at investor.adt.com. During today's call, we'll reference certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures are included in the earnings presentation on our website. Unless noted otherwise, all financials and metrics discussed reflect continuing operations.

Our remarks today also include forward-looking statements that fall within the safe harbor provisions provided by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act, including statements regarding the proposed transaction. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that are described in the earnings presentation and in our SEC filings, including the risks related to timing and completion of the proposed transaction. Actual results may differ materially. Please refer to our SEC filings for more details.

We also refer you to the information in our press release regarding the proxy statement ADT intends to file with the SEC in connection with the proposed transaction and regarding participants in the solicitation. Investors and stockholders are urged to read the proxy statement when it becomes available. And now I'm happy to turn the call over to Jim.

James DeVries

Thanks, Elizabeth, and good morning, everyone. I'll keep my remarks brief this morning, focusing on the transaction we announced last Thursday, and then Jeff will walk through our third quarter results.

On Thursday, October 29, we announced that we have entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by Thrive Holdings in an all-cash transaction. Under the terms of the agreement, which our Board of Directors unanimously approved, ADT stockholders will receive $10 per share in cash upon completion. $10 represents a premium of 46% to ADT's unaffected closing share price on October 27 and 52% to our 30-day volume-weighted average share price ending on that date. The agreement values ADT at approximately $7.6 billion in equity value and $15.3 billion in enterprise value.

We believe this transaction represents an important next chapter for ADT, bringing together our more than 150 years of security experience, nationwide service network and trusted customer relationships with Thrive Holdings' long-term capital and engineering capabilities. I am pleased with this outcome, which recognizes the value built by our more than 12,000 employees and dealer partners, our long-standing commitment to providing peace of mind and our continued advancement of ADT's capabilities and technologies. Our progress and this transaction deliver an attractive cash premium to our stockholders.

ADT's leadership in smart home security is built on a legacy of trust, long-standing customer relationships and the dedication of our people. And importantly, for our customers, ADT's data and privacy policies will remain unchanged and no new data sharing will occur without customer permission.

We anticipate this transaction to close in the first quarter of 2027, subject to customary closing conditions, including approval by ADT's stockholders and receipt of U.S. antitrust approval. This is an all-cash transaction, and Thrive expects to finance it through a combination of equity, debt and preferred equity.

As outlined in our announcement, the merger agreement includes a go-shop period that runs through November 28. As is customary, we do not intend to disclose developments with respect to that process unless and until we determine disclosure is appropriate or otherwise required.

Until the transaction closes, ADT will continue to operate independently as a public company. Importantly, with this transaction, ADT's focus has not changed. We remain committed to serving our customers, supporting our dealers and partners and executing our key initiatives.

During the quarter, we continued to make progress across our 3 core differentiators: unrivaled safety, premium customer experience and innovative offerings. We introduced Unusual Activity Alerts in ADT+, advanced pilots of our Origin AI presence sensing technology, expanded ADT Blu to Walmart.com and launched ADT Partner Services through which we will install and service select products for Apple Retail and its customers beginning later this month.

Before I turn the call over to Jeff, I want to thank our employees, our dealers and partners and the first responders we work alongside every day. Your commitment is what has earned ADT the trust of millions of customers for more than 150 years. I'll now turn the call over to Jeff.

Jeffrey Likosar

Thanks, Jim, and good morning, everyone. I'll take the next few minutes to describe our third quarter with all comparisons year-over-year unless I note otherwise.

In summary, I'm very pleased to report that ADT again delivered strong results with continued revenue growth, solid earnings and robust cash generation, all in line with our expectations. Our consistent performance, while we continue to invest in our business, underscores the strength of our cash generation capabilities, which remain a highlight of our results.

Adjusted free cash flow, including interest rate swaps, was $217 million, up 4% in the quarter. On a year-to-date basis, we're up 46%, having generated more than $1 billion through the first 3 quarters in excess of last year's full year level. Key drivers include lower cash taxes and interest, along with working capital management and some timing favorability.

On the top line, total revenue was $1.35 billion, up 4%. Installation, product and other revenue was $265 million, up 32%, driven by a higher mix of professionally installed systems under our outright sales model.

Monitoring and related services revenue was $1.08 billion, down 1%, which includes the revenue loss from the October 2025 divestiture of our multifamily business. Ending recurring monthly revenue was $360 million compared to $362 million a year ago, with that decline also primarily reflecting the multifamily divestiture.

Adjusted EBITDA was $665 million, down 2%. This reflects higher general and administrative costs, including technology investments, partially offset by the margin on our higher installation revenue. Adjusted EPS was $0.24, up 4%. And on a year-to-date basis, we have generated $0.71 of adjusted EPS, up 6%, benefiting from a lower diluted share count along with lower interest expense.

Turning to operational metrics. Gross customer revenue attrition was 13.1% compared with 13% a year ago, with elevated nonpay cancellations partially offset by fewer voluntary disconnects. Trailing 12-month revenue payback was 2.3 years, consistent with the prior year.

Gross RMR additions were $12.1 million on 195,000 gross unit additions. Direct professional install unit and RMR additions continued to perform strongly, improving versus the prior year, offset by lower volume from dealers and bulk account purchases.

During the quarter, we completed a bulk account purchase of approximately 8,000 customer accounts for $9 million in cash. In August, we secured $100 million of incremental borrowings under our First Lien Term Loan A due 2030. We designated the proceeds for general corporate purposes, which may include repayment of a portion of our 2027 notes. Including these proceeds, we ended the quarter with $228 million of cash and cash equivalents with no borrowings under our revolving credit facility.

Net leverage was 2.7x adjusted EBITDA compared with 2.8x a year ago. During the quarter, we returned $64 million to shareholders, including $23 million in share repurchases and $41 million in dividends. Year-to-date, we have returned $748 million to shareholders through dividends and the repurchase of 89 million shares.

To conclude, we delivered solid overall third quarter results with revenue growth, strong year-to-date cash generation and stable core operating metrics, all while continuing to invest in our business for the long term.

As Elizabeth mentioned, due to the pending transaction, we won't be taking questions today. Thank you to our employees for their continued dedication, and thank you to our customers, dealers, partners and our investors.

And thank you all for joining us this morning. Operator, that concludes today's call.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.