오퍼패드(OPAD) 2026년 3분기 실적 발표 콘퍼런스 콜: 4분기 가이던스 및 수익성 달성 시점

핵심 요약

• 오퍼패드는 주택 판매 둔화로 분기 마감 건수가 줄어들면서 2026년 3분기 매출이 경영진의 기존 전망치인 9,000만~1억 달러에 못 미치는 7,810만 달러를 기록했다고 발표했다.
• 부동산 거래 건수는 1분기 263건, 2분기 295건에서 증가한 324건을 기록했으나, 회사의 전망치인 350~400건에는 미달했다. 중개 서비스 및 캐시 오퍼 마켓플레이스가 3분기 마감 건수의 약 35%를 차지했다.
• 매출총이익은 650만 달러, 매출총이익률은 8.3%를 기록했다. 조정 EBITDA는 2분기의 620만 달러 손실과 비교해 확대된 750만 달러 손실을 나타냈다.
• 오퍼패드는 605채의 주택을 매입해 분기 말 기준 684채의 재고를 보유했다. 경영진은 재고 내 자기자본을 5,500만 달러로 추정했으며, 장기 미분양 주택은 포트폴리오의 2.6%에 불과했다고 밝혔다.
• 경영진은 이제 2027년 2분기 말까지 흑자 전환된 조정 EBITDA 런레이트를 달성할 것으로 예상하고 있다. 매입 마진 확대와 연간 800만~1,000만 달러의 추가 비용 절감을 통해 추정 손익분기 거래량이 기존 약 1,000건에서 분기당 800~850건으로 낮아질 수 있다.
• 2026년 4분기에 대해 경영진은 부동산 거래 건수 400~475건, 매출 1억~1억 2,000만 달러를 제시했으며, 조정 EBITDA는 전분기 대비 개선될 것으로 예상했다.

주요 재무 데이터

사업 및 운영 실적

30년 만기 주택담보대출(모기지) 금리의 급격한 상승이 이번 분기 주요 운영 압박 요인으로 작용했다. 8월 초 약 6.7%였던 금리는 10월 초 약 7.4%까지 상승했다. 경영진은 금리 상승 속도가 매수자와 매도자의 경계감을 높여 주택 판매를 둔화시켰으며, 다른 채널 전반의 전환율에도 일시적인 영향을 미쳤다고 설명했다.

오퍼패드는 3분기 동안 605채의 주택을 매입했으나 시장 상황 변화에 따라 매입 속도를 줄였다. 회사는 확대된 마진 요건을 더 이상 충족하지 못하는 주택의 매입 진행을 거절하고, 일부 매도자를 캐시 오퍼 마켓플레이스나 중개 서비스로 안내했다.

회사 측은 4분기 현재까지 200채의 주택이 판매되었거나 계약 체결 상태라고 밝혔다. 경영진은 향후 몇 달간 판매가 매입을 앞질러 현재 재고에 묶여 있는 자기자본을 회수하고 현금 확충에 도움이 될 것으로 예상하고 있다.

수수료 기반 채널은 지속적으로 확대되었다. 중개 서비스 및 캐시 오퍼 마켓플레이스는 3분기 거래의 약 35%를 차지했으며, 중개 매물 등록 계약은 전분기 대비 2배 이상 늘었다. 경영진은 이번 분기 약 114건의 수수료 기반 거래 중 대부분이 홈프로 매물 등록 서비스에서 나왔다고 밝혔다.

경영진은 내륙 위치, 연식이 짧은 주택, 리노베이션 필요성이 적은 자산에 집중하면서 보다 선별적인 매입 방식으로 전환하고 있다. 오퍼패드는 길어진 가정 보유 기간과 더 커진 시장 리스크를 반영해 현재 인수 심사 목표치를 수개월 전보다 두 배 가까이 높였다고 밝혔다.

앤드루 파이퍼가 피터 낙의 후임으로 임시 최고재무책임자(CFO)에 선임되었다. 파이퍼는 2021년부터 오퍼패드에서 근무했으며, 이전에 회계 운영, SEC 보고 및 감사 프로세스를 총괄했다.

경영진 실적 전망

2026년 4분기에 대해 오퍼패드는 다음과 같이 전망한다:

• 매출 1억~1억 2,000만 달러.
• 부동산 거래 건수 400~475건.
• 3분기 750만 달러 손실 대비 조정 EBITDA의 전분기 대비 개선.

이번 전망은 3분기에 축적된 재고, 4분기에 이미 판매되었거나 계약 체결된 200채의 주택, 중개 서비스 및 캐시 오퍼 마켓플레이스 마감 건수의 예상 성장에 의해 뒷받침된다. 이는 모기지 금리가 완화 없이 현재 수준 근처에서 유지된다고 가정한다.

경영진은 2027년 2분기 말에 흑자 전환된 조정 EBITDA 런레이트를 달성할 것으로 예상한다. 이 목표는 연간 800만~1,000만 달러의 추가 영업비용 절감, 최근 매입 건의 마진 확대 및 기존 재고의 판매 전환을 반영한다. 일부 비용 절감 효과는 4분기에 기대되며, 연환산 기준 전체 효과는 2027년 중 나타날 것으로 예상된다.

리스크 및 주시 영역

• 모기지 금리 변동성은 구매 여력, 매수 수요 및 거래 전환율에 있어 핵심 리스크로 남아 있다. 경영진은 25베이시스포인트(bp)의 변화만으로도 주택 임장 활동과 재고 수준에 상당한 영향을 미칠 수 있다고 강조했다.
• 자본이 재고에 투입되고 사업 운영에 사용됨에 따라 사용 제한 없는 현금은 1,210만 달러로 감소했다. 오퍼패드는 재고가 판매됨에 따라 현금이 재확충될 것으로 기대하지만, 약 2억 5,100만 달러의 미인출 금융 한도 중 대부분은 비확약 한도였다.
• 지역별 상황은 여전히 불균등하다. 경영진은 샬럿, 롤리, 플로리다의 활동 둔화, 휴스턴과 댈러스의 건설사 인센티브 제공, 피닉스의 매물 증가, 그리고 아틀란타의 상대적으로 꾸준한 활동을 언급했다.
• 시장 둔화에 따라 수익성 달성 일정이 연기되었다. 실행 여부는 재고 판매, 비용 절감, 매입 마진 확대, 자본 효율적인 채널의 지속적인 성장에 달려 있다.

애널리스트 Q&A 주요 내용

경영진은 비용 절감과 현재의 기여마진을 통해 분기 손익분기 거래량을 약 150~200건 줄여 기준점을 기존 약 1,000건에서 800~850건으로 낮출 수 있을 것으로 추정했다. 추가적인 기여마진 개선 시 해당 요건이 더욱 감소할 수 있다.

경영진은 거래 비중이 캐시 오퍼 채널과 수수료 기반 채널 간 50 대 50 균형을 향해 이동할 것으로 예상한다. 그러나 최근 인수 심사의 마진 확대 덕분에 캐시 오퍼 사업이 향후 몇 분기 동안 더 큰 기여 수익원으로 유지될 것으로 예상된다.

오퍼패드는 인력 재배치, 기술 최적화, 사무실 시설 변경 및 기타 영업 지출을 연간 800만~1,000만 달러의 계획된 비용 절감 출처로 꼽았다. 경영진은 자본 효율적인 홈프로 및 캐시 오퍼 마켓플레이스 제품이 직접적인 주택 매입보다 대차대조표 부담을 줄이면서 확장할 수 있다고 설명했다.

회사 측은 또한 리노베이트 수요에 중형 고객뿐만 아니라 연간 1~5채의 주택을 매입하는 소규모 투자자도 포함된다고 밝혔다. 경영진은 고객 확보 활동이 회복되면 이러한 관계가 확장될 수 있다고 판단하고 있지만, 최근 영업 환경은 도전적이었다고 규정했다.

실적발표 콘퍼런스 콜 전문

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Good afternoon, and welcome to Offerpad's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Megan, and I will be your conference operator today. [Operator Instructions]

With that, I'll turn the call over to Cortney Read, Offerpad's Vice President of Investor Relations and Communications.

Cortney Read

Good afternoon, and welcome to Offerpad's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. Management's remarks today are prerecorded and a live question-and-answer session will follow.

During the call, management will make forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements are inherently uncertain, and actual events could differ significantly from management's expectations. Please refer to the risks, uncertainties and other factors related to Offerpad's business described in our filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Except as required by applicable law, Offerpad does not intend to update or alter forward-looking statements as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

Management will also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these measures to the comparable GAAP measures are available in the financial tables of our third quarter earnings release on Offerpad's website.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Brian Bair, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.

Brian Bair

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us. Before I discuss the quarter, I want to share 2 leadership updates. Andrew Pieper has been appointed Interim Chief Financial Officer, succeeding Peter Knag. I'm excited to have Andrew step into this role. He brings more than 22 years of public company accounting and financial reporting experience. Since joining Offerpad in 2021, he has led our accounting operations, SEC reporting and audit processes, and he built a reporting and controls foundation that took us through our transition to a public company. He knows this business and our financials exceptionally well. Andrew will discuss our financial results and outlook later in the call.

Also joining Andrew and me on today's call is Roberto Galaviz, our Vice President of Financial Planning and Analysis. Roberto will work closely with Andrew, drawing on his experience leading FP&A and supporting our operating plan.

Secondly, we welcome Ben Graboske to our Board of Directors during the quarter. Ben brings deep experience at the intersection of real estate, data and technology. His perspective will be valuable as we advance our data and AI capabilities and apply them to improve decision-making across the business.

Turning to the quarter. Revenue was $78.1 million, below the $90 million to $100 million outlook we provided in August. We closed 324 real estate transactions compared with our outlook of 350 to 400. Adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $7.5 million rather than the improvement we expected. At the same time, transactions increased for the second consecutive quarter and more than 1/3 of our closings came through Brokerage Services and Cash Offer Marketplace.

When we provided our outlook in early August, average 30-year mortgage rates were about 6.7%, and they stayed near that level into early September. Then they rose sharply to approximately 7.4% by early October, up about 70 basis points and the highest level since November 2023. We've operated with mortgage rates above 7% before. What was different this time was the speed of the move late in our quarter and the attention it received. Housing affordability had become a national story in the news, in political debate and across social media.

Buyers and sellers watch the market change in real time with headlines describing it as a buyer's market. Buyers weighed higher monthly payments against the possibility of a better deal, while sellers faced uncertainty about how long their homes would take to sell and what price they could achieve. We believe that combination contributed to a more cautious market as the quarter came to a close. We felt that caution across our platform, most directly in slower home sales, which were the primary driver of the shortfall and also in the conversion across other channels for a period.

We've adjusted our acquisition pacing, our resale strategy and our spending accordingly. Last quarter, we said we were increasing acquisitions, and we did by acquiring 605 homes in quarter 3. We also had additional homes under contract that could have increased that total. But as market conditions shifted, we've reevaluated them against our wider margin requirements and chose not to proceed with homes that no longer met our criteria. Where possible, we offer those sellers an alternative through Cash Offer Marketplace or Brokerage Services. Buying well is only half the process. On the selling side, our priority is converting this inventory into completed sales. So far in the fourth quarter, 200 homes have sold or are under contract for sale.

Our current portfolio is healthy. Most of it was bought within the last few months. Aged homes represented only 2.6% of our inventory at quarter end and inventory valuation adjustments on homes we hold were minimal. These homes give us a pipeline of sales through the rest of the year and into early 2027. Even as buyers became more cautious and activity slowed across our channels for a period, our fee-based channels continue to grow for the quarter. Total transactions increased for the second consecutive quarter from 263 in Q1 to 295 in Q2 and 324 in Q3. Brokerage Services and Cash Offer Marketplace represented approximately 35% of Q3 closed transactions and brokerage listing signings more than doubled from the prior quarter. Together with continued cost discipline, these channels give us more flexibility in how we grow and work towards positive adjusted EBITDA.

Profitability remains our #1 priority, and nothing about that has changed. What has changed is the time line. The shift in the market has pushed our path out, and we now expect to exit the second quarter of 2027 at a positive adjusted EBITDA run rate. For some time, we planned roughly 1,000 transactions per quarter as a reference point for positive adjusted EBITDA. As market conditions have shifted, we've adjusted our underwriting to build wider expected margins into each purchase.

A home bought at a wider margin can contribute as much profit as 2 homes bought at thinner margins. It uses less capital and carries less risk. We're also reducing operating expenses and growing Cash Offer Marketplace and Brokerage Services. Together, these actions give us the opportunity to reach positive adjusted EBITDA with fewer transactions than before. Andrew will walk through the cost reductions in more detail.

These are actions within the same operating framework we've previously shared, disciplined transaction growth, contribution margin expansion and operating leverage, adapted to current market conditions. For homeowners navigating an uncertain market, having options and control over their next move matters. A cash sale can offer clarity and convenience, while Cash Offer Marketplace and Brokerage Services provide other ways to sell. Offering these choices is central to Offerpad's model and creates a meaningful opportunity for our business.

Our focus is to serve more sellers, deploy capital selectively and advance our path to profitability. With that, Andrew will take you through our financial results, liquidity and updated outlook.

Andrew Pieper

Thank you, Brian. As I step into this role, my priorities are straightforward: focus on our path to profitability as we convert our inventory into cash and continue to optimize our cost base. Brian covered the third quarter's results and the market. I'll focus on our unit economics, the balance sheet and our outlook.

During the third quarter, gross profit was $6.5 million and gross margin was 8.3%. Per transaction economics dipped from Q2, but remained well above a year ago. Contribution profit after interest was approximately $12,900 per real estate transaction compared with $13,500 in Q2 and $6,400 a year ago. Renovate generated $5.2 million of revenue, up from $4.8 million in Q2. Renovate contributes to the overall results but is excluded from our real estate transaction count.

Operating expenses, excluding property costs, were $13.7 million compared with $13.3 million in Q2. Net loss was $11.5 million and adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $7.5 million compared with a loss of $6.2 million last quarter. After 2 quarters of sequential improvement, the decline in Q3 adjusted EBITDA primarily resulted from the resale pullback.

As we've highlighted before, we have reduced operating expenses by more than $140 million since 2022, and that work is continuing. This quarter, we identified an additional $8 million to $10 million in annualized operating expense reductions. We have already begun implementing these actions with some benefit expected in Q4 and the full annualized savings expected during 2027. Those savings, along with selling through the inventory we built in Q3 and higher return purchases flowing through are the drivers behind our expectation to reach positive adjusted EBITDA run rate as we exit Q2 2027.

Turning to the balance sheet. We ended Q3 with $12.1 million in unrestricted cash compared with $33.1 million at the end of Q2 and an estimated $55 million of equity in our 684 homes in inventory. The decrease in cash primarily reflects the capital deployed into that inventory, along with cash used to operate the business. That capital hasn't left the business. It's sitting in our homes, and it comes back to us as they sell. With acquisitions now intentionally reduced, we expect sales to meaningfully outpace purchases in the coming months. Each home we sell repays its financing and returns our equity to the balance sheet, so we expect our cash to rebuild as inventory comes down. Together with the cost reductions we've identified, this is the primary way we expect to fund the business through our path to profitability.

We have also recently improved our inventory financing. Our lenders now fund a larger share of each home's cost, so less of our capital is tied up in every home that we buy. That makes our capital go further, and it helps it return to the business faster as homes sell. At quarter end, we had approximately $251 million of undrawn capacity under our inventory financing facilities, the majority of which is uncommitted.

We believe our cash, the capital we expect to return as homes sell and our inventory financing are sufficient as we execute our 2027 plan. We also remain open to opportunities to strengthen our balance sheet, including strategic capital partnerships, and we'll be disciplined about the structure and cost of any capital we add.

For the fourth quarter, we expect 400 to 475 real estate transactions and $100 million to $120 million in total revenue. We expect adjusted EBITDA to improve sequentially from Q3. That outlook is supported by the inventory we built in Q3, including the 200 homes sold or under contract so far during the fourth quarter and continued growth in Brokerage Services and Cash Offer Marketplace closings. It also assumes rates remain near current levels and no rate relief.

In closing, I'm excited to step into this role. Since joining Offerpad in 2021, I've led accounting and financial reporting and work closely with teams across the business. That experience gives me a detailed understanding of how our operating decisions flow through our financial results from acquisitions and inventory to dispositions and costs. I know shareholders are focused on the current market, the capital in our inventory and our path to profitability, and so am I. I'm confident in where we're headed because of the strengths we have across the business.

Our products give homeowners real choices. We have a strong experienced leadership team and an accounting and finance team that brings real discipline and deep knowledge of this business. We have capital partners who have supported us and continue to expand their relationship with us, and I'm committed to strengthening those relationships further.

With that, we are ready to take your questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Ryan Tomasello.

질의응답

Ryan Tomasello

I wanted to ask about the fee-based products. It looks like the Cash Offer Marketplace and Brokerage transactions were about, I think, by our math, 114 in the quarter. Can you tell us what the breakdown of that was between those 2 products? And then also going into the fourth quarter guidance, how should we think about that 35% mix of fee-based transactions, what's being embedded there in 4Q and into early next year?

Roberto Galaviz

Ryan, this is Roberto. Yes. So on that 114, majority of that came from the HomePro side, some majority on the listing services. Cash Offer Marketplace, we're still seeing some growth there. But majority going into Q4, we still expect to be from the HomePro side. On the mix side, we've talked about the 50-50 in the past, and we're still looking to get to about that range. Over the next quarter, we expect that we're still going to see more sales on cash offer driving the volume side. But we do expect on the contribution side because of our higher margins that we're building into those properties that, that rate is going to start getting closer to -- or going to be on the higher side on the 60% to 70% range.

We do see Home Pro. We highlighted in the prepared remarks that we grew about doubles our listings signed. So we expect to see more growth into the Q4 from that. So volume-wise, that rate is going to go towards the 50-50 sooner rather than later. On the contribution margin side, we expect that cash offer is going to continue to lead for a couple of quarters.

Ryan Tomasello

And then in terms of Brian's remarks, just around the prior target of 1,000 transactions a quarter driving breakeven. It sounds like you're hopeful that with wider spreads here and adding in these additional cost efficiencies that it sounds like that could move lower. Any way to frame how you're thinking about the new run rate breakeven in terms of real estate transaction volume?

Brian Bair

Ryan, it's Brian. Yes, the -- we were making really -- we had really good progress, as we talked about last earnings with our velocity buying with SCOUT and buying in the areas that we really liked, which the good news is our portfolio is really strong right now. We don't have a lot of tail inventory. And so I really like what we have. But because we had to pause some of the buying for a little bit, pull back, it's obviously pushed us up to a couple -- another quarter or 2 before we can get profitability. But we are making really good progress with the asset-light services on that side. So the 1,000 was kind of in case we looked at 1,000 transactions with our 3 product lines. But with the wider margins and the cost reductions, to your point, it does -- there's different ways to get there. Andrew, I don't know if you want to add anything on that side.

Andrew Pieper

Yes, I'll jump in there, too. Ryan, thanks for the question on it. As Brian just mentioned and you hit on it as well that the cost savings that we've identified, along with our current contribution margin level, we expect that will help reduce the number of transactions that will be required to get us to breakeven by roughly about 150 to 200 transactions. So that will be moving the 1,000 real estate transactions per quarter down to about 800 or 850 per quarter. Also want to highlight as well that as our contribution margin improves, that number of transactions will come down even further, especially with the higher margins that we built into our cash offer underwriting more recently.

Brian Bair

Yes. The one other thing I'll say on that, Ryan, is, and I said it in the prepared remarks, but definitely, seller mentality has changed. And we've seen this thing evolve over the last several years. But I think this is the very first time that we have seen it that most -- a majority of the sellers know it's a buyer's market. They're seeing listing -- active listings around their areas continue to increase. And so the good part about that is that we can buy at wider margins and be more selective about what we're acquiring. Of course, what we have to be very sensitive to is making sure that we're buying the right type of product in the right areas. And so we are continuing to stick with the interior homes the outlying areas are definitely impacted more than most areas. And so our portfolio still consists of interior homes, newer, not as much renovation. Of course, we still have renovation, but the $100,000 renovation projects that we've done in the past, we're not looking at doing right now.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Dae Lee.

Dae Lee

So first one, you guys touched on it a little bit, but this isn't the first time we've seen rates kind of spike up in a short period of time, and you guys have gone through, I would say, a few iterations of this. I'm just wondering like how does this step-up feel different from the ones you've experienced in the past? And how do you feel about the shape of the business as you go into another what could be a potentially challenging higher rates buying and selling environment?

Brian Bair

We've operated at the plus 7% in the past. Where this one was unique is towards the end of the last quarter, just the speed of -- we saw mortgage rates above 7.5% and in a really quick period of time. And so for buyers that didn't have their rates locked in, it was extremely impactful to them. And so I would say -- it reminds me kind of kick this thing off a few years ago when we saw the acceleration from about 3.5% mortgage to 7% wasn't as drastic, but it was very, very -- we went from the mid-6s to the mid-7s in a really quick period of time.

And I think across the board, just from some of the other news that have been out there from the affordability perspective. And again, I mentioned this in the prepared remarks, but I think it's important to point out again, but as you're seeing in social media and news programs and things are leading with the affordability and home prices. And so I just think overall, you saw a really quick acceleration of mortgage rates. And then you're just seeing more people with the affordability perspective that impacted them besides gas and across the board. But we've seen a little bit of that over the last few years.

And so the one thing that we continue to do is like we're going to control what we can control, and that's the inventory that we're buying where anything that we balance sheet, we're going to be highly selective on what we're going to buy. But in parallel to that, I think I mentioned before, we've doubled the amount of other cash buyers in our cash offer marketplace. And so for example, anything that Offerpad doesn't want to buy, for example, if it's solar panels that we don't want to buy in a certain area, we'll have other cash buyers that are willing to buy that home that has solar panels or outlying areas. And so we still want to provide the cash offer, it's not Offerpad's cash offer, somebody else's cash offer and then give back the seller choice that they can list that home if they want. But yes, we're watching it.

Now since that, we've seen an ease of a little bit of the mortgage rates from almost a 7.6% range to now in the 7.25%, the 7.5%, a little bit below 7.5%. And so -- and I've mentioned this I know the last few times we talked, but like that sensitivity of 25 bps is just incredible what it does from showing activity to active inventory just across the board. And as we talked about like with SCOUT, SCOUT identifies and where we should be buying along with HENRY that technology is great, but -- and so it identifies velocity areas that we should be buying and considering all of the macro environment in those areas. And in a really quick period of time, we saw a lot of those areas started to shrink up because what happened is more inventory hit the market, you had more sellers that put their home in the market that weren't transacting as fast as we've seen in the past. And so that's where this was the impact on that. And so -- but we've seen it normalize a bit, come down a little bit. But we're trying to be as prepared as we can for all the volatility we're seeing out there.

Dae Lee

Got it. And I guess as a follow-up, you kind of mentioned that with rates coming down, but -- and I guess a lot of efforts to improve affordability. Sitting -- I mean, I guess from your seat, do you feel like there's enough work that's being to help with affordability? And if there is, like, what are you most hopeful for? Is it just rates? Or is there something else that can work here?

Brian Bair

Yes. Look, I think the affordability overall, like I said, it's a little bit of a perfect storm because buyers aren't getting the relief anywhere, whether it's diesel gas prices to normal gas prices to the war and tariffs and everything else that's going on out there. And so -- and the salaries are not keeping up with it of what's happening. And so if I had a magic wand, I love the portable mortgage concept. I think a onetime move where people could trade out of their current home and keep the same mortgage rate would be incredible. I know there's been -- I've been talking to anybody and everybody who would listen about -- I think that would give the market a relief and people a onetime kind of I can get out and either upgrade or downgrade their home. Because right now, you just -- again, you have the sellers that don't want to leave their current rates and you have the buyers that can't afford the new rates. And so not that, that's the perfect answer, but it is an answer.

So I think mortgage is that and just getting -- but if you look at just the impact of rates, I mean, just to make it in real life, like that's about -- so when mortgage rates go up from -- just take a base out from 6.5% to 6.7% and then go up to 7.5% plus, that's about $150 to $175 a month. And then you add a little bit as from the other affordable issues with grocery prices and everything else adding in there, it's just -- there's an off button somewhere in there for buyers on that perspective. And so I definitely -- it's a long-winded answer of saying I definitely think rates impact everything incredible right now. But I do think there's some other relief that's out there with other things coming down to give people that even another $100 to $150 a month is super impactful so people can qualify to get a house or their first house.

Dae Lee

Got it. And then just a last follow-up to Andrew, if I can. When you guys talk about reaching adjusted EBITDA on a run rate basis by end of 2Q of '27, is that more driven by the seasonality of the business improving into the home buying season? Or are there other factors that can affect that target?

Andrew Pieper

Yes, Dae, thanks for the question. Seasonality plays into that for sure. But what we're really seeing more is on -- as we're talking about the cost reductions in the business and how that will ultimately flow through and get to that point with the rates that Brian is talking about and the impact that that's having on the buying and selling side, as we flow that through and as that gets into the cost side, we will have that adjusted EBITDA with the metrics falling out in Q2.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Gaurav Mehta.

Gaurav Mehta

In the earnings release, you mentioned that you bought in 3Q, you bought the homes in the markets where you were still seeing, I guess, the markets that are meeting your requirements. Can you maybe comment on which markets where the home purchase is focused on?

Brian Bair

Yes. So we -- and that's where some of the volatility we've seen because we've -- Charlotte, Raleigh areas, the Florida markets have been -- they've been pretty -- I don't want to say steady. That's a bad word to use, but we've had a good appetite in those markets. You didn't see the home price acceleration. You've seen more consistency there. But we're definitely seeing a slowdown now in those markets. The Houston and Dallas markets it's getting impacted by -- just by new builds, by builders. It's hard to avoid builders and their buydowns and some of their special financing in those areas. And so as we look at Atlanta continues to be a market that we can stay pretty consistent in that we're seeing some good activity in. The Phoenix market, Phoenix is a little bit of a mixed bag. We -- in Phoenix, you see over 28,000 active listings in Phoenix. You see a lot of inventory. Those are more higher end, but the right price points in the interior, we still continue to see them move.

And so it's been a very unique -- and interesting enough, about a year ago, Tampa was probably the slowest market that we see. Now we see Tampa inventory moving fairly well in the Tampa market. And so -- besides the volatility of the market and interest rates, it's been interesting to watch the -- a lot of these are job growth specific. We're watching -- even just a quick example. We have to be -- have to watching where data centers are getting built. It's creating great jobs, but some people say it can cause noise and water shortages and other things as well. And so we're staying hyper-focused on just -- so when we say pockets, we're getting very specific with the pockets of where we're going to buy and staying patient. And if we don't want to buy it, maybe somebody else does in our marketplace, we can't make a cash offer on it. But that's where we -- I think we'll continue to see listing growth over time because we can provide listing services to the people that cash offer doesn't work for various reasons.

Gaurav Mehta

Okay. I also wanted to follow up on some of the cost savings that you talked about. Can you maybe break down for us the expected -- to realize those $8 million to $10 million of additional OpEx savings?

Brian Bair

Yes. I'll talk and then maybe have Andrew come in here. But just from a high level, the one thing that the -- buying homes at volume, especially at balance sheet homes at volume is great for our core business, but we're not buying as many we can reduce -- we can -- we don't need as many people and we're not buying as many homes. I'm just that simple. But you really -- if you parlay that into our technology as far as what we've done with HENRY specifically, from being able to do automated offers, a lot of data like picture recognition and the inspection process, being able to get really efficient on and using technology to leverage that.

And then also the other products as we talk about with like the HomePro product, that we have agents. These are 1099 agents. And so we can scale and grow that without really the balance sheet being affected, and we can scale and give customer a great experience. There's some cost, but not nearly the cost is the acquisition side. And the Cash Offer Marketplace is great because we run through the exact same system, use the same technology, but instead of balance sheet, we have somebody else's balance sheet. But Andrew, I don't know if there's anything you want to add to that?

Andrew Pieper

Yes. Thanks, Brian. So as you mentioned, we'll have the headcount realignment as we move towards more capital-light and our tech reoptimization. We also identified some additional expenses associated with the realignment of our office-based facilities, and we'll get some savings there as we move forward. And then there's just some other general operating spend that we've identified as well. Now as it relates to the timing of those, some of that benefit we've already started to see in Q4, but the full impact and the full annualized savings from that will hit in 2027.

Gaurav Mehta

All right. And last one, I think you also talked about adjusting your acquisition criteria for higher expected returns. Can you provide some more color on how you expect to achieve higher returns on acquisitions?

Brian Bair

Yes. Simply, what we're doing is from an ROI perspective, we're backing off the -- from a time to cash perspective, like what we have right now and currently [ in pending ], I think we're going to hit our time to cash. But as we continue to go, especially with seasonality and market conditions, we're going to expand how long we're going to own those homes, maybe from 100 to 120 days. But simply what also the assumptions that we put in there. So potentially what we need to make to balance the risk factor of us buying the home, but also some of the other costs that go in there from closing costs and all those. And so fundamentally, it's -- if you look at the ROI that we need to expect to make on that home and just calculating for the risk metric. And so just to kind of put that in there, we're underwriting right now almost double what we were just a couple of months ago on the underwriting perspective. And so that naturally slows down volume, but we're okay with that in these market conditions, but then have another products we could connect them to. We want to make sure we can capture them either through another cash buyer that's in our marketplace and/or using our listing service.

Gaurav Mehta

Maybe if I can ask one more. Can you maybe comment on, I guess, the demand that you're seeing for renovation and maybe asset-light? Are you still seeing demand for like the [ fee light ] business? And -- or has that been impacted by higher rates as well?

Brian Bair

Yes. Well, on the renovation specifically, so here's the good thing about renovation is that when we kicked off renovation, it was doing renovation for a lot of larger institutions, companies buying at scale and buying a lot of homes. Over the last few years, specifically, we've -- so we're doing renovation for very small groups, even some groups that buy 1 to 5 homes a year. So we've gone way down the funnel. And of course, we have some of the midsized groups in there as well.

But -- so the thing that makes me excited about the future, this is across the board, is that we are laser-focused. We want to get profitable. That's what Andrew and I and Roberto were talking about every day, what cost can we build out. We got to go execute. We got to get profitable. But then we got -- as we go, we want to go grow and scale this. Everybody, like every renovation customer that we're working with, and we're very self-aware. We're reaching out all the time, what could we do better on the renovation side? Is there anything we're missing? Is there anything -- and we're seeing it in our own business, and we want to expand that. And I will tell you that they -- people love using us because they can really just plug into our operation on that end of it.

But as they start to scale up again, as the market starts to turn, they're going to scale with us. And then as the success of cash marketplace as we get more cash buyers in there, especially the lower-tier cash buyers -- sorry, lower volume cash buyers, they're not going to buy as many homes, but they need more of our services. And so not just the sourcing that we can provide them, but also using our renovation services. And so it all ties together. And as we scale, I mean, there's no other way to say guys, this environment, especially over the last 60 days has been -- I think it shocked the system a little bit. It didn't just shock Offerpad. It shocked a little bit of everybody of what's happening. But as we know in real estate, these are all just -- these are temporary moments in time. And so we want to establish great relationships, do a really good job for all of our partners. And then as they scale up, we'll scale with them. So we can 3, 4x very quickly every one of our other product lines.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.