CNX 리소스(CNX) 2026년 3분기 실적 발표 콘퍼런스 콜: 유지 생산 및 유티카 전략

CNX 리소스(NYSE: CNX)는 2026년 3분기 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜을 통해 생산 규율 유지, 자사주 매입, 펜실베이니아 중부 유티카 개발로의 장기적 전환을 강조했다. 경영진은 공식적인 2027년 가이던스를 제시하지 않았으나, 현재는 생산 유지 모드를 이어갈 것으로 예상한다고 밝혔다.

핵심 요약

• CNX의 현재 2027년 계획은 생산 유지 모드를 전제로 한다. 경영진은 2027년에 진입하며 헤지가 잘 이루어져 있으며, 시장 상황이 악화될 경우 활동을 조절할 것이라고 밝혔다.
• 경영진은 재고 수준이 5년 평균에 가깝고 겨울철에 진입하며 4조 입방피트(Tcf)에 접근할 수 있다고 밝혔다. 추가 생산을 위해서는 더 강한 선도 가격 형성이 필요하다.
• CNX 포트폴리오의 약 3분의 2가 분지 내 가격에 노출되어 있다. 회사는 현지 가스 가격이 1달러 미만으로 떨어졌을 때 일부 물량을 감산했으나, 3분기 총 감산량은 "10억 입방피트(Bcf) 미만"이라고 설명했다.
• 자사주 매입은 인수합병(M&A) 및 기타 자본 배분 옵션을 평가하는 기준(벤치마크)으로 남아 있다. 경영진은 자사주 매입을 총생산량을 늘리지 않고도 주당 생산량과 주당 잉여현금흐름을 늘리는 방법으로 보고 있다.
• CNX는 펜실베이니아 서남부 마셀러스 개발을 4~5년 더 진행한 후, 2020년대 말경 펜실베이니아 중부 유티카 및 마셀러스 개발로 주로 전환할 것으로 예상하고 있다.
• 전동식 수압파쇄(프래킹) 장비 활용과 용수 트럭 운송 의존도 감소에 힘입어, 디젤 및 철강 가격 상승이 회사의 자본 집행 프로그램에 미치는 영향은 1% 미만에 그칠 것으로 예상된다.

사업 및 운영 실적

CNX는 이미 인프라가 구축되어 있고 많은 프로젝트가 기존 작업 위치로 돌아가는 방식을 포함하고 있어 펜실베이니아 서남부 마셀러스가 단기적으로 가장 경제적인 개발 지역으로 남아 있다고 밝혔다.

개발 비중은 심층 유티카 유전을 더 많이 가동하는 방향으로 점점 확대될 것으로 예상된다. 2020년대 말경에는 프로그램이 펜실베이니아 중부 마셀러스의 보완을 받으며 펜실베이니아 중부 유티카 중심으로 전환될 전망이다. 펜실베이니아 서남부 유티카 및 기타 지층은 추후 개발될 수 있다.

경영진은 유티카 굴착 일수 축소를 남은 주요 비용 절감 기회로 꼽았다. 또한 정확한 유정 수가 제시되지는 않았으나, 2027년 개발 비중은 심층 유티카 작업과 남아 있는 펜실베이니아 서남부 재고를 혼합하여 현재 프로그램과 대략 비슷할 것이라고 설명했다.

경영진 전망(가이던스)

CNX는 공식적인 2027년 가이던스를 제공하지 않았다. 현재 상황을 바탕으로 경영진은 자사의 헤지 포지션이 많은 동종 업체보다 뛰어난 보호를 제공하므로 생산 유지 기조를 유지하고 있다고 밝혔다.

회사는 장기 천연가스 선물 가격(strip)이 추가 공급을 뒷받침할 만큼 충분히 상승할 경우 생산량 확대를 고려할 것이다. 한편 가격이 더 약세를 보이면 경영진은 필요한 조정을 할 것이라고 덧붙였다.

CNX는 향후 5년에 걸쳐 예상되는 프로젝트와 관련해 잠재 고객에 대한 가스 직접 판매 논의에 참여하고 있다. 다만 경영진은 고정 인도 의무를 정당화하려면 장기 계약이 충분한 프리미엄을 제공해야 한다고 말했으며, 계약 일정은 제시하지 않았다.

리스크 및 관전 포인트

• 분지 내 가스 가격이 주기적으로 1달러 미만으로 떨어져 약 0.50~0.60달러에 이르면서 헤지되지 않은 생산량을 감산할 유인이 발생하고 있다.
• 생산량의 약 3분의 2가 분지에 노출되어 있어 현지 날씨, 수요 및 운송 경제성이 실현 디퍼렌셜에 영향을 미칠 수 있다.
• 디젤 및 철강 비용이 상승하고 있으나, 경영진은 현재 이것이 전체 자본 지출에 미치는 영향은 제한적일 것으로 예상하고 있다.
• 애팔래치아 지역의 장기 천연가스 수요는 특히 AI 관련 및 기타 프로젝트의 수요 규모와 시기 측면에서 여전히 불확실하다.
• 고객 직접 계약의 경제성은 장기 인도 의무에 대해 적절한 프리미엄을 확보하는지 여부에 달려 있다.
• 자본 효율성은 인플레이션과 특정 연도에 필요한 인프라 규모에 계속 민감하게 반응한다.

애널리스트 Q&A 하이라이트

자본 배분: 경영진은 주당 장기 잉여현금흐름을 늘리는 M&A에 여전히 열려 있다고 밝혔다. 다만 자사주 매입이 잠재적 거래의 최소 요구 수익률(허들 레이트)로 계속 작용하고 있다. 회사는 향후 회전한도대출 사용이나 단기 매입 전술에 대한 세부 내용을 밝히지 않았다.

천연가스 수요: CNX는 장기적인 애팔래치아 지역 수요에 대해 긍정적인 전망을 유지하면서도 기회의 규모를 수치화하지는 않았다. 경영진은 생산량 증가가 단순히 수요 예측보다는 공급 곡선의 가격 신호에 계속 연동될 것이라고 말했다.

가스 디퍼렌셜: 경영진은 이번 분기 분지 내의 어려운 환경 원인을 날씨와 가격 약세로 돌렸다. 미콘(MichCon) 및 기타 시장으로의 운송이 비경제적이었기 때문에 일부 물량이 분지에 남아 있었다.

경영진 교체: 앨런 셰퍼드는 CNX가 내부 후보인 라비 스리바스타바를 최고재무책임자(CFO)로 임명하게 되어 기쁘다고 말했다. 그는 에버렛의 퇴사에 대해 회사의 8-K 공시 내용 외에 추가적인 세부 사항은 밝히지 않았다.

애팔래치아 지역 통합: CNX는 다른 생산 업체의 발표된 거래에 대한 언급을 거부했다. 경영진은 인수 합병이 자본 배분 옵션 중 하나일 뿐이며 주당 가치 창출 측면에서 자사주 매입과 경쟁해야 함을 재확인했다.

실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 전문

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the CNX Resources Third Quarter 2026 Q&A Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]

Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Tyler Lewis. Please go ahead.

Tyler Lewis

Thank you, and good morning, everybody. Welcome to CNX's Third Quarter Q&A Conference Call. Today, we will be answering questions related to our third quarter results. This morning, we posted to our Investor Relations website an updated slide presentation and detailed third quarter earnings release data such as quarterly E&P data, financial statements and non-GAAP reconciliations, which can be found in a document titled 3Q 2026 Earnings Results and Supplemental Information of CNX Resources.

Also, we posted to our Investor Relations website our prepared remarks for the quarter, which we hope everyone had a chance to read before the call, as the call today will be used exclusively for Q&A. With me today for Q&A are Alan Shepard, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Ravi Srivastava, our Chief Financial Officer; and Navneet Behl, our Chief Operating Officer. Please note that the company's remarks made during this call, including answers to questions, include forward-looking statements, which are subject to various risks and uncertainties.

These statements are not guarantees of future performance, and our actual results may differ materially as a result of many factors. A discussion of risks and uncertainties related to those factors in CNX's business is contained in its filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and in the release issued today. With that, thank you for joining us this morning.

And operator, can you please open the call up for Q&A at this time.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And the first question comes from Gabriel Daoud with Truist.

질의응답

Gabe Daoud

I was hoping we could maybe just start with the macro backdrop. And you noted in the prepared remarks, you'll certainly remain flexible and responsive to the current environment. So curious maybe how that would kind of translate into your thoughts on '27, just given where gas prices are?

Alan Shepard

Yes. Hey, Gabe, thanks for the question. Where we sit right now, so we're pretty much on the 5-year average for storage levels. We'll be close to 4 Ts going into winter. Right now, we're not giving forward guidance, but right now, it looks like we'll be in maintenance production mode, right? Like unless we see something that sort of incentivizes producers to bring on more gas, we'll be staying steady state. And obviously, if it sort of degrades from here, we'll make adjustments as necessary.

Gabe Daoud

Okay. Thanks, Alan. Okay. So maintenance for now, like not below maintenance given prices on the screen currently. You feel good with still maintenance.

Alan Shepard

Yes. We're pretty hedged going into '27. So we're in a little bit different shape than most folks. So right now, we'd still be in the maintenance mode mindset.

Gabe Daoud

Right. Right. Okay. Okay. Great. That's helpful. And then my follow-up would be another, I guess, high-level question, a big merger in basin this week was announced, as I'm sure you're all aware. Would love to hear your thoughts maybe on the transaction and just M&A in Appalachia more generally.

Alan Shepard

Yes. I want to comment on other folks' M&A. Obviously, it's a commodity industry and you see consolidation in those sorts of industries. We'll see what the sort of the combined company does in terms of production levels and things like that, but not much color to provide from our side on it.

Gabe Daoud

Okay. And just CNX's appetite for M&A at this stage?

Alan Shepard

Yes. So it's one of the lanes of capital allocation, right, as we always talk about, we're open to things that are accretive to the long-term free cash flow per share value. But it's just one of the things we review. And right now, share repurchases are sort of the bar we test all of that against, and they continue to be extremely attractive as you saw this quarter.

Operator

And the next question comes from Leo Mariani with ROTH.

Leo Mariani

I wanted to see if you could comment on inflation. Are you starting to see that creep in, in areas of the business? And do you expect that to maybe get a little worse next year?

Alan Shepard

I'll turn that over to Nav.

Navneet Behl

Yes, on the inflation side, the cost increase we are seeing are on two things. One is diesel and other is steel. But our overall impact to our program is less than 1% of our capital. So not much impact moving forward for us.

Alan Shepard

Yes. Leo, if you think about it, we've driven most of the diesel out of our system through sort of our emission reduction initiatives over the years. We run electric frac fleets. We have intensive sort of in-water transportation, right? We don't run a lot of water trucks and things like that. So as Nat mentioned, our exposure to those 2 categories are pretty limited moving into '27, but there are certainly increases there as everyone is.

Leo Mariani

Okay. Appreciate that. And then just a question on sort of the Utica here. I know you haven't had some recent wells. But as you look out a handful of years, certainly my understanding that you guys are going to continue to kind of do more in the Utica. As you think about that, are you contemplating any kind of new midstream build-out you think might be necessary to kind of get some of that deeper Utica in Central Pennsylvania online several years down the road?

Alan Shepard

Yes. As we sort of move through that CPA field, right, we're going to develop that as efficiently as possible, right? We've had a lot of time to sort of plan out the runway there. You're not going to see any major spikes in sort of infrastructure build. Year-to-year, you'll see some oscillation, but really, call it, in the $25 million plus or minus range on infrastructure.

Operator

The next question comes from Phil Jungwirth.

Phillip Jungwirth

Previously, you talked about 40,000 to 50,000 Southwest PA Marcellus acres remaining to be developed. I guess just wondering how you expect the transition activity in coming years. Is the focus going to be predominantly in this area through the decade? Or are we going to see a more gradual pivot, which would actually extend years of inventory in the core?

Alan Shepard

Yes. Obviously, the developing what's remaining in the Southwest PA area on the Marcellus front is the most sort of economic thing to do, right? The infrastructure is all there and they're mostly return trips and things like that. As we talked about before, the way to think about it is we sort of exit the Southwest PA Marcellus as we kind of exit the decade, right?

So there's another 4 to 5 years sort of develop the rest of that. And then the program shifts over to CPA Utica predominantly with CPA Marcellus as we call that area. And then ultimately, you would return back to Southwest PA for Southwest PA Utica and other horizons later on down the road.

Phillip Jungwirth

Okay. Great. And then can you remind us on maintenance CapEx for CNX and maybe a little bit more theoretical because there's still the potential to drive down costs. But if you did shift to predominantly deep Utica position in Central PA, how do you expect total spend to trend relative to this year's more Southwest PA focused program?

Alan Shepard

Yes. So the way we think about it sort of a capital efficiency metric, so all in with the capital infrastructure and the D&C, you're calling that $0.85 to $0.90 range is where we want to be sort of moving forward. Obviously, that's subject to things like inflation and amount of infrastructure in any given year. But the avenue where there's still opportunity to sort of squeeze cost out of the system is really on the drilling days on the Utica side, right? So that's really where our focus is. And every time we go back to a new pad there, that's where we're being intentful.

Operator

And the next question comes from Michael Scialla with Stephens.

Michael Scialla

You had some management change during the quarter. Just wanted to see if you could add any color on Everett's departure and Ravi assuming the role of CFO.

Alan Shepard

Yes. Excited to have Ravi. Great to have an in-house candidate with his sort of background and skill set to sort of step in the role. I'm not going to add anything additional on sort of the Everett departure outside what was in the 8-Ks.

Michael Scialla

Okay. Fair enough. I guess thinking long term, been some pretty robust natural gas demand forecast out there. I guess I want to see your thoughts on do you agree with those? And if they play out, how would CNX respond? Would you do anything different than the way the company has been operating in the last really 6 years with aggressively buying back shares?

Alan Shepard

Yes. I would say we're extremely bullish on sort of long-term demand in basin. In terms of giving you a precise number, whether that's 2 Bs or 20 Bs, time will tell, right? I mean there's still a lot of uncertainty on the ultimate end users in terms of AI and things like that. But what's clear is natural gas, every drop here in Appalachia is going to get developed.

From a pricing perspective, what that means is we're still going to be constrained by the supply curve. This is the way we sort of think about it. So when we see the longer-term strip increasing in pricing to sort of bring a call on what we have, that's when we'll bring incremental volumes to the market until then sort of maintenance of production the way we think about it.

Operator

And the next question comes from Betty Jiang with Barclays.

Wei Jiang

First on the gas differential, like 3Q differential is a bit wider than where we were -- where we were expecting. So just wondering if there's anything in particular that impacted this? And could you remind us what's your in-basin exposure?

Alan Shepard

Yes. I mean our in-basin exposure is 2/3, 2/3 of the whole portfolio, right? Been challenging up here in basin with sort of the weather and the softness. Any given day, our team is out there optimizing. We have different sales points, but a lot of the volumes ended up just staying here because it wasn't economic to sort of send to MichCon or other places.

Wei Jiang

Got it. And then just you guys don't subscribe to the curtailment strategy, right? Was there any curtailment impact?

Alan Shepard

Yes. No, great question, Betty. So there's been some periods over the last couple of months where gas has dropped sub-$1 because we hedge, there's not a lot we need to do in terms of shut-ins, but there's been some couple of stretches where we have curtailed volumes. It's been less than a B though, probably for the whole quarter. So we haven't sort of spiked that out. But we definitely are sensitive as other folks when you get down to $0.50, $0.60 gas in basin, there's no reason for anybody to sort of reach that level if you're unhedged.

Wei Jiang

Right. No, that makes sense. And then another question on capital allocation. It's the second quarter in a row now that you lean on the balance sheet a bit for a pretty outsized buyback. Is that a level that -- something that you will consider -- continue to do? And is there a limit on how much willingness you're willing to maybe draw on the balance sheet on the revolver?

Alan Shepard

Yes. We generally don't try to give too much color on the short-term tactics from the buyback program because that's not sort of in our interest. But I think if you can look back at the history of what we've done, we sort of stepped on the gas when see the sort of sector trade-off and we laid off when the sector is a little more bid to it.

But longer term, we still view every share we repurchase as a sort of great opportunity to create long-term per share value, particularly when we think about the question about long-term gas demand, right? Like instead of growing production, you can grow production per share by repurchasing shares, right? That's another way to do it. So...

Operator

And we have another question from Michael Scialla with Stephens.

Michael Scialla

I just wanted to ask about a lot of companies talking about having conversations and some agreements on direct sales to customers. Are you having any of those kind of conversations with potential customers? And if so, what sort of time frame should we be thinking about? Are these like towards the end of the decade? Or could they be sooner than that?

Alan Shepard

Yes. We're certainly in the mix with everybody else here in the basin on some of these discussions. I mean the challenge has been what's the incentive to like to sell off the long-term contracts if you're not getting sort of enough of a premium to lock into that fixed delivery. So that's been the challenge. No particular time line as folks come to market and look for gas for these projects that are coming online over the next 5 years, we'll participate and we'll update if there's something meaningful to update on it.

Michael Scialla

Got you. And then you mentioned a little bit about deep Utica. Should we be thinking for '27, similar kind of program as this year, turning in line 7 or so wells? Or could that -- could you flex that up at all? Or do you have plans to do that?

Alan Shepard

Yes. I think the mix sort of looks like this year. I don't want to give you the precise numbers off the top of my head, but the mix is we're blending in deep Utica with the remaining sort of Southwest PA that we've talked about. And any given year, I wouldn't get too engaged in sort of any false precision on the signal there. Like I said, we're super bullish on that horizon, and it's sort of going to be core to the next couple of decades.

Operator

And this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Tyler Lewis for any closing comments.

Tyler Lewis

Great. Thank you again for joining us this morning. Please feel free to reach out if anyone has any additional questions. Otherwise, we'll look forward to speaking with everyone again next quarter. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.