DT 미드스트림(DTM) 2026년 3분기 실적 콘퍼런스 콜: EBITDA 가이던스 상향

핵심 요약

• DT 미드스트림은 2026년 3분기 조정 EBITDA가 3억 100만 달러를 기록했다고 발표했습니다. 이는 파이프라인 실적 호조에도 불구하고 북동부 가더링 물량 감소의 영향으로 전 분기 대비 400만 달러 감소한 수치입니다.
• 회사는 2026년 조정 EBITDA 전망치를 11억 8,500만~12억 2,500만 달러로 상향 조정하고 범위를 축소했습니다. 중간값 기준 전년 대비 7% 성장한 수준입니다.
• 분배가능 현금흐름 전망치는 8억 6,000만~8억 9,000만 달러로 인상된 반면, 2026년 성장 자본 지출 범위는 중간값 기준 10% 이상 감소한 3억 7,500만~4억 2,500만 달러로 하향 조정되었습니다.
• DTM은 약 4억 달러 규모의 신규 자체 성장 프로젝트에 대한 최종 투자 결정(FID)을 내렸으며, 이에 따라 총 확정 자본은 5개년 자체 프로젝트 백로그의 70% 수준인 약 24억 달러로 증가했습니다.
• MIST 남행(Southbound) 1단계는 투자등급 유틸리티 기업들과의 20년 장기 계약을 바탕으로 미드웨스턴에 하루 약 3억 입방피트(MMcf)의 수송 용량을 추가하여 20%의 용량 증대를 가져올 예정입니다.
• 경영진은 스톤월 수송 용량의 가동 중단, 추가 비용 발생, 북동부 가더링 물량 감소로 인해 4분기 조정 EBITDA가 3분기보다 낮아질 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.

핵심 재무 데이터

사업 및 운영 실적

합작법인 파이프라인의 매출 증가로 파이프라인 부문 실적은 전 분기 대비 개선되었습니다. 반면 가더링 부문 실적은 북동부 물량 감소의 영향으로 하락했습니다.

3분기 가더링 물량은 헤인즈빌에서 하루 평균 21억 7,000만 입방피트(Bcf), 북동부에서 하루 평균 12억 5,000만 입방피트(Bcf)를 기록했습니다. 경영진은 4분기 헤인즈빌 물량이 3분기 수준을 유지할 것으로 예상하는 반면, 북동부 물량은 10월 생산자의 감산 및 하류 설비 중단으로 인해 감소할 것으로 전망합니다.

DTM은 MIST 남행 1단계와 신규 900메가와트(MW) 발전소에 가스를 공급하는 지선 건설을 승인했습니다. 간선 확장으로 하루 약 3억 입방피트(MMcf)의 수송 용량이 추가될 예정이며, 2029년 4분기 가동을 목표로 하고 있습니다. 지선은 2028년 상반기에 가동될 예정입니다. 두 프로젝트 모두 20년 장기 계약에 의해 뒷받침되며, 총 투자 금액은 2억 7,500만~3억 2,500만 달러로 예상됩니다.

회사는 또한 1억 3,000만~1억 5,000만 달러의 투자가 예상되고 2030년 3분기 가동을 목표로 하는 가디언 파이프라인 현대화 2단계 프로젝트를 승인했습니다. 가디언 1단계, 미드웨스턴 및 바이킹 현대화 프로젝트는 계획대로 진행 중입니다.

개발 중인 다른 기회로는 2028년 4분기를 목표로 하는 밀레니엄 라마포 확장, 벡터 2030, 가디언 G4 및 추가 헤인즈빌 시스템 확장이 있습니다. 가디언 G3는 연방에너지규제위원회(FERC) 승인 절차를 계획대로 진행 중이며, 2027년 중반에 승인 명령이 나올 것으로 예상됩니다.

경영진 가이드언스

DT 미드스트림은 2027년 예비 조정 EBITDA 전망치 범위를 재확인했지만, 실적 발표 통화 중에 해당 범위가 다시 언급되지는 않았습니다. 정식 2027년 가이드언스와 2028년 초기 전망은 연말 실적 발표 통화에서 공개될 예정입니다.

확정 자본은 2027년에 약 6억 1,000만 달러, 2026년과 2027년에 걸쳐 총 약 10억 달러가 될 것으로 예상됩니다. 경영진은 조정 EBITDA 성장에 맞춰 배당금을 늘리겠다는 뜻을 재차 밝혔습니다.

경영진은 LNG 수출과 발전 수요에 힘입어 2030년까지 미국 천연가스 수요가 하루 25 Bcf 이상 증가할 것이라는 제3자 기관의 전망을 인용했습니다. 회사는 자사의 중서부, 북동부 및 멕시코만 연안 파이프라인 거점이 관련 인프라 수요를 흡수하기에 유리한 입지를 확보하고 있다고 보고 있습니다.

리스크 및 주요 점검 사항

• 경영진은 스톤월 수송 용량의 가동 중단, 추가 비용 발생, 북동부 가더링 물량 감소로 인해 4분기 조정 EBITDA가 3분기 수준에 미치지 못할 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.
• 지난 2~3개월 동안 근월물 천연가스 가격이 약세를 보였으며, 이는 특히 북동부 지역 생산자들의 감산으로 이어졌습니다.
• 경영진에 따르면 북동부 가더링 물량은 최소물량보장(MVC) 수준을 크게 상회하고 있으나, 단기 실적은 생산자의 활동 및 하류 설비 중단 위험에 노출되어 있습니다.
• 프로젝트 추진 일정은 고객의 계약 체결, 발전소 건설 일정 및 규제 당국의 승인에 따라 달라집니다.
• 경영진은 규제 불확실성과 인허가 지연이 주요 에너지 인프라 투자의 리스크를 높일 수 있다고 언급했습니다.
• 데이터센터 개발에 대한 여론과 정치권의 검증 강화가 관련 전력 및 천연가스 인프라 수요의 증가 속도에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.

애널리스트 Q&A 주요 내용

MIST 확장 가능성: 경영진은 2030~2031년의 추가 수요와 관련해 고객과의 논의가 지속되고 있다고 밝혔습니다. 향후 기회에는 간선 추가 확장과 지선 건설이 모두 포함될 수 있습니다. 회사는 2단계 확장에 대한 구체적인 수치를 제시하지 않았습니다.

공급 다변화: REX가 MIST 남행 1단계 계약의 주요 인입점이 될 것입니다. 미드웨스턴은 벡터, 애팔래치아 수송 파이프라인 및 남단에 위치한 여러 연결관을 통해서도 가스를 인입받을 수 있습니다.

북동부 및 중서부 수요: 경영진은 유틸리티 기업의 전력 수급 계획에 포함된 가스 발전 계획을 언급했습니다. 2030년대 초 미시간주 유틸리티 계획에 포함된 3.5기가와트(GW) 전력 용량을 충당하려면 하루 6억~7억 입방피트(MMcf)의 천연가스가 추가로 필요할 수 있다고 설명했습니다.

저장 용량: DTM은 발전 수요 증가가 시장 변동성을 높임에 따라 고인출(high-deliverability) 저장 시설에 대한 수요가 발생하고 있다고 보고 있습니다. 단기 기회로는 워싱턴 펜(Washington Penn)에서의 인출 능력 향상 서비스가 포함됩니다.

NEXUS 및 Vector: 경영진은 벡터 확장 논의가 상류 NEXUS 용량에 관한 논의를 뒷받침하고 있다고 밝혔습니다. NEXUS는 확장을 추진하기 전 장기 계약으로 전환될 가능성이 있는 하루 약 3억 입방피트(MMcf)의 단기 수송 용량을 보유하고 있습니다.

헤인즈빌 성장: 경영진은 계획 중인 헤인즈빌 확장이 LNG, 산업용 및 발전 수요에 의해 견인되는 수요 중심 프로젝트라고 설명했습니다. LEAP 5가 진행 중이며, 회사는 이미 LEAP 6에 대해 논의하고 있습니다.

실적 발표 전화회의 전체 녹취록

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전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Welcome to the DT Midstream Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. I will now turn it over to our speaker today, Todd Norman, Director of Investor Relations. Thank you. Please go ahead.

Todd Lohrmann

Good morning, and welcome, everyone. Before we get started, I would like to remind you to read the safe harbor statement on Page 2 of the presentation, including the reference to forward-looking statements. Our presentation also includes references to non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to the reconciliations to GAAP contained in the appendix.

Joining me this morning are David Slater, Chairman and CEO; Chris Zona, President and COO; and Jeff Jewell, Executive Vice President and CFO.

So with that, I'll go ahead and turn the call over to David.

David Slater

Thanks, Todd, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining. During today's call, I'll highlight our key accomplishments for the quarter and discuss the constructive market fundamentals driving demand across our footprint. I'll then turn it over to Chris and Jeff to review our commercial activity, project execution, financial performance and outlook.

So with that, we delivered another strong quarter, and our year-to-date performance is enabling us to raise our 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance, representing a 7% year-over-year growth at the midpoint. We are also reaffirming our 2027 adjusted EBITDA early outlook range. We continue to execute our pure-play natural gas focused strategy, commercializing organic growth opportunities supported by strong customer demand.

During the quarter, we reached FID on 3 new projects in our pipeline segment, increasing our total committed capital to approximately $2.4 billion, which represents 70% of our 5-year organic project backlog. Putting this in perspective, our total committed capital is approximately 2x this year's adjusted EBITDA guidance and has increased by 50% within the last 9 months. While we will formally update our backlog on our 2026 year-end call, the strength of demand across our footprint and our strong competitive positioning gives us confidence in the depth and durability of our organic growth opportunities.

Turning to the market. The fundamentals supporting our long-term growth outlook remain very constructive. Natural gas remains a reliable, affordable and abundant domestic energy source available at scale. And recent third-party forecasts project U.S. natural gas demand to grow by more than 25 Bcf per day through 2030, driven by growing LNG exports and increasing power demand as new generation is needed to replace retiring coal capacity and serve growing data center load. We see this demand growth extending well into the next decade. On the LNG side, the ongoing geopolitical tension in the Middle East appears to be driving a long-lasting shift of global LNG sourcing towards the U.S., which will continue to add demand on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Moving to power demand. Recent regulatory filings in the Upper Midwest contemplate meaningful new natural gas generation in the early to mid-2030s. These fundamentals reinforce the need for additional natural gas infrastructure, and our strategically located gas pipeline footprint is well positioned to serve this growth across the Midwest, Northeast and Gulf Coast. As the need for new energy infrastructure continues to grow, we are encouraged by the bipartisan progress on permitting reform, including the recently introduced Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act, and we look forward to seeing continued progress following the elections towards a more efficient and predictable permitting process for our critical energy infrastructure.

We have also been monitoring the growing public and political debate surrounding the pace and impact of data center development, and we have observed that the utilities we are contracting with are taking a thoughtful long-term approach to engaging with local communities and ensuring reliability and affordability benefits for their existing customers.

I'll now turn it over to Chris to walk you through our commercial activity and construction projects, which provide tangible evidence of how these demand fundamentals are translating into growth across our footprint.

Christopher Zona

Thanks, David, and good morning, everyone. As David indicated, the third quarter was another active quarter for us commercially, and we are announcing today that we've reached FID and approximately $0.4 billion of new organic growth projects. Unpacking the new projects, first is the MIST Southbound Phase 1 or MIST S1 expansion on Midwestern, which will serve incremental power generation demand in Southern Indiana. MIST S1 increases Midwestern's capacity by approximately 300 MMcf per day, which represents a 20% increase in the pipeline's total capacity and is supported by investment-grade utilities under 20-year negotiated rate contracts. The expansion involves a combination of incremental compression and looping and has an expected in-service date of Q4 2029.

In addition to the mainline expansion, we have also reached FID on a pipeline lateral serving a new 900-megawatt power plant that is under development. The lateral has a 20-year demand-based contract to serve a utility offtaker and is expected to be in service in the first half of 2028. Together, these projects demonstrate our ability to leverage the strategic location of our Midwestern pipeline to capture growth through both mainline and lateral investments, providing timely competitive solutions for growing power demand while securing durable long-term contracted growth with high-quality customers.

MIST S1 represents the latest milestone in the commercialization of the broader MIST opportunity. As a reminder, our initial nonbinding open season was oversubscribed and gave us greater visibility into where and when customer demand is developing. We subsequently conducted a binding open season for the demand requiring capacity in 2029, which has led to today's FID announcement. Our perspective on the broader missed opportunity and the magnitude of potential investment has not changed, and we are now actively progressing the next phases to serve customer needs in the 2030 and 2031 time frame.

The next project we are moving forward with is the second phase of modernization in Guardian, which reflects the continued investment opportunities we see across our interstate pipelines to ensure reliability and is expected to be in service in Q3 of 2030. The first phases of Guardian, Midwestern and Viking modernization are advancing as planned, including the recent FERC approval of our Guardian rate case settlement, which provides recovery for Guardian's Phase 1 modernization investment starting in mid-2027. Looking ahead, we continue to see meaningful future expansion opportunities across our footprint.

On Millennium, we recently launched an open season for the Ramapo enhancement project, which is designed to provide additional capacity to serve growing demand in the Northeast with a targeted in-service date in the fourth quarter of 2028. We are also progressing a broad set of other opportunities such as the Vector 2030 expansion, the Guardian G4 expansion and Haynesville system expansions, and we'll keep you updated as they move forward.

Turning to project execution. Our Guardian G3 expansion project continues to advance on plan through the FERC certificate process with an order expected in mid-2027. All of our other in-flight growth investments remain on track and on budget. Finally, operationally for the quarter, total gathering volumes were in line with our expectations with the Haynesville averaging 2.17 Bcf per day and the Northeast averaging 1.25 Bcf per day. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, we expect Haynesville volumes to be in line with third quarter and the Northeast volumes to be lower due to producer curtailments in October and the impact of downstream outages.

With that, I'll now pass it over to Jeff to walk you through our quarterly financials and outlook.

Jeffrey Jewell

Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone. In the third quarter, we delivered adjusted EBITDA of $301 million, representing a $4 million decrease from the prior quarter. Our Pipeline segment results were $2 million higher than the second quarter, driven by higher revenue from our joint venture pipelines. Gathering segment results were $6 million lower than the prior quarter, reflecting lower Northeast volumes. Looking to the remainder of the year, we expect the fourth quarter to be lower than the third quarter, driven by off-line capacity and incremental expenses on Stonewall. And as Chris noted, lower Northeast volumes driven by producer curtailments.

As David stated in his opening remarks, following our strong year-to-date performance and considering our expectations for the fourth quarter, we are raising our 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance midpoint and narrowing the range to $1.185 billion to $1.225 billion. In addition, we are reaffirming our 2027 adjusted EBITDA early outlook and plan to provide our formal 2027 guidance and 2028 early outlook on our year-end call. We are also raising our distributable cash flow guidance range to $860 million to $890 million.

On the capital front, due to capital efficiency, we are reducing our 2026 growth capital range to $375 million to $425 million, which represents more than a 10% reduction to the midpoint of our range. With the stronger distributable cash flow and reduced capital expenditures, we expect year-end leverage to be approximately 2.8x for on balance sheet and approximately 3.4x for proportionate. As Chris mentioned, DTM has approved investments in the MIST S1 pipeline expansion and a new power plant lateral, and we expect total investment to be $275 million to $325 million for these projects related to Midwestern at an attractive build multiple.

DTM has also approved investment in the Phase 2 Guardian Pipeline modernization project, where we expect to invest $130 million to $150 million. We've increased our committed capital to reflect these new investments. 2027 is approximately $610 million and total committed capital over 2026 and 2027 is approximately $1 billion. Finally, today, we also announced that our Board of Directors approved our third quarter dividend of $0.88 per share, unchanged from the prior quarter, and we remain committed to grow the dividend in line with adjusted EBITDA.

I'll now pass it back over to David for closing remarks.

David Slater

Thanks, Jeff. So in summary, we are pleased with our performance through the first 9 months of the year, delivering strong financial results while advancing our organic growth strategy. The projects announced today are tangible examples of our ability to convert customer demand into durable long-term contracted growth, and we remain encouraged by the future opportunities progressing across our network. With our strategically located pipeline portfolio and disciplined execution, we are well positioned to capture the opportunities supported by the highly constructive long-term outlook for natural gas infrastructure in North America, underpinned by growing LNG and power demand.

And with that, we can now open up the line for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan.

질의응답

Jeremy Tonet

And just wanted to go through, I guess, MIST South, and it sounds like there's potential for more down the road here. I'm wondering if you could help frame, I guess, what could be the drivers here? It looks like there could be a connection to Southeast Connector that can start to pull more gas, possibility for more power plant laterals along the way. Just wondering if you could help us think about, I guess, what the possibilities are on that slide in the 2030, '31 time frame that you touched on, I think.

David Slater

Sure, Jeremy. I can maybe start, and Chris, you can fill in some of the details. But Jeremy, maybe I'll start at the highest level. We're just consistently executing the plan right now on Midwestern. The initial nonbinding open season we did in the spring sort of illuminated the demand, the location of the demand and the timing of when that demand would come on to the network. I think as Chris said, this Phase 1 has really focused on the demand that's manifesting in 2029. So that's been our focus is to get that commercialized, and we now have that commercialized. So we're now turning our attention to the other elements that are out there. the expansion project that you just announced is very encouraging. I'll use those words. Chris, maybe I'll pass it over to you if you want to add any details.

Christopher Zona

Sure, sure. Thanks, David. Yes, Jeremy, I would start with, as David mentioned, obviously, we're launching here in the 2029 service needs for those customers. Obviously, as you would expect, we're very -- staying very engaged with the next, I'll say, subset of shippers who have requirements in the 2030, '31 time frame. When you look at a lot of those customers are utility type customers. And as you think about MIST and I think about how we sit competitively in the market, proximity to the load, the ability to have cost, reliability and the supply diversity in particular, are all, I think, assets and important drivers to why MIST is a very attractive option for those customers. And as David mentioned, I think the whole Southeast Connector is just another proof point of the depth and durability of the natural gas demand that's developing in the Upper Midwest. And so yes, I think that's very encouraging.

Jeremy Tonet

Got it. It sounds like more sizable opportunities ahead. And this step maybe could be replicated in size going forward, but I guess we'll wait to hear more about that. Maybe continuing with MIST a little bit. Just wondering if you could comment on the source of gas there and what type of opportunities that could bring as well as even MIST North at this point, there's been kind of noise around large load development in Wisconsin, Michigan, but it seems like overall, it's plowing forward here. So wondering if you could talk about those 2 elements a bit more.

David Slater

Sure, Jeremy. Maybe just for clarity on MIST S1, the receipt point, the primary receipt point on those contracts will be REX. So just clarity on where the supply for this particular round of demand is coming from. But like Chris said, one of the interesting elements of Midwestern is that we can take supply from a number of different pipelines egressing out of Appalachia. We can take it from Vector in the north. We can take it from REX rig in the middle. And then we have 2 or 3 pipes down on the southern end that we also can take gas from. So that supply diversity is a feature that is well understood by the demand that's manifesting along the line.

And I think one of the advantages that we enjoy as we commercialize these opportunities. In terms of timing of -- as the market materializes, I think as we've always said, we don't control the timing of the demand. We're a derivative of the demand. Our objectives here is to stay close to all those customers and just consistently execute, be reliable, be cost competitive, bring projects in on time and earn our fair share of the market growth that's happening in the region.

Jeremy Tonet

Got it. That's helpful. One last one, if I could. I was breaking out my AI ruler. Just trying to see time lines for projects. Has anything changed? Or is everything, I guess, in line with your previous expectations?

David Slater

Yes. When I think about this quarter and any changes, I think we're getting more clarity on some of the time lines. And as we get clarity, we'll communicate that to the audience. I'd say there's a bit of a pull forward happening on Millennium right now with the current open season that we're in flight on. Smaller volume, but similar to the last project on Millennium where sort of we're dipping our toe in the water, taking a low-risk approach and incrementally expanding capacity into that constrained market into the New York, New England market. But other than that, Chris, are you seeing anything on your side in terms of time shifts?

Christopher Zona

Not at this point, David, no.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Praneeth Satish with Wells Fargo.

Praneeth Satish

Maybe I'll stay on MIST here. So the spring open season had 1.5 Bcf per day of interest across both directions. Phase 1 took 300 of that. I guess how much of that remaining interest is southbound that could serve the demand in Tennessee? And I guess with Southeast Connector and now that that's FID, would that be additive to that -- to what you saw during the open season? I mean, I know it's early, but I guess from everything we can see, it just feels to us that MIST South Phase 2 could be a larger opportunity than Phase 1. And is that kind of the right read?

David Slater

Yes, I'll jump in here, and Chris, you can climb in as well if you'd like. I don't think anything has changed. I think we're just in what I'll call execution mode right now post the nonbinding open season in the spring. That illuminated the depth and breadth of the market, like I said, the location and the timing. Obviously, this FID on the southern end of Midwestern is very positive for us. Does it -- is it changing anything, anything that we're focusing on? Not necessarily. Does it add more depth and more confidence in what we're thinking? Absolutely. So again, I think what you should expect here is we're just going to just keep executing, just keep plowing ahead one step at a time and consistently executing the plan.

Praneeth Satish

Got it. And then maybe if I, again, piggyback off to Jeremy's question, dig into the supply side. So if we do move forward with the Phase 2 and it's, let's say, sizable and REX doesn't expand, then I guess, is your next option here to kind of pull from Chicago and those different pipes that are in that area? And I guess would -- is Vector 2030 and your decision to potentially expand that, is that commercially linked to the next missed phase with shippers contracting the full path?

David Slater

Those are all great questions. But I think at this point, we're going to not dive into the nuts and bolts of all the different pieces, obviously, for competitive reasons. It's a competitive market. There's nothing that you said, though, that is surprising or unusual. Maybe I'll say it that way. And obviously, we look at the entire network. And when we're talking to customers, we're talking to them holistically about the different solutions as the demand manifests. So we work very collaboratively with our interconnecting pipelines and as you would expect. And we support them and they support us. So I'll leave it at that.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Theresa Chen with Barclays.

Theresa Chen

Looking at the gathering side of things, we've seen very recently substantially more consolidation, both upstream in Appalachia and midstream in the Haynesville. David, how has this informed your thought process about engaging with customers, recontracting and general midstream competitive dynamics in the 2 basins for which you gather?

David Slater

Yes. Those are all great strategic observations. And yes, you're seeing consolidation. I think from a production perspective, economies of scale are very real for the published producers. And so, I'd say that's one just data point, and I suspect you'll continue to see consolidation over time. In terms of sort of the market dynamics, I think we have -- the whole North American market has moved or changed from what I'll call a supply push market to a demand-pull market. So I think some of this activity is a reflection of that reality. And you're seeing lots of different public producers making strategic decisions to position themselves longer term in a demand pull market environment versus supply push.

In terms of some of the consolidation on the midstream side, our experience has been that a lot of our producer customers like to work with independent parties that don't have any conflicts per se that don't compete with them. So I think that's one of the dimensions that we provide in the areas that we gather is that we're sort of an arm's length independent provider and can focus on just providing good, reliable, competitive service. and have the best interest of all of our customers at heart.

Theresa Chen

Got it. And then looking at your projects under development and in execution, that growing list in Slide 8, can you just talk about what you're contemplating as far as storage developments and expansions across your system?

Christopher Zona

Yes. Theresa, this is Chris. Yes. So I would say a couple of things on the storage side. So what we're seeing is a tremendous amount of demand for incremental storage, and I'll say, specifically high deliverability storage, given the volatility that the market sees coming with all the power generation. We have a high demand on the quality of storage service. And so we have some opportunities, I would say, both from an incremental capacity perspective, but also more immediately here around our Washington Penn asset, an opportunity here to provide enhanced deliverability services.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Jefferies.

Alexander Demetriou

This is Alex here on for Julien. Just a question on the lateral off of MIST. Is that potentially repeatable? And could that lead to further expansions down the line on MIST itself pulling off from the mainline expansion?

Christopher Zona

Chris here. Absolutely. In fact, I would say a lot of the other opportunities that we're looking at, again, for the 2030, '31 time frame, lateral solutions are part of some of those discussions. And I think you're spot on, right? Connecting to the mainline is one opportunity. The other opportunity is the mainline expansion itself, and we have a combination of those opportunities going forward.

Theresa Chen

Got you. That's super helpful. And then just on the -- it looks like you guys sort of put more of a time line on the G4 expansion. Just curious like how that opportunity set has evolved and kind of what you're waiting for to get to an open season? And then also if you have any kind of insight on how big the opportunity could be there?

Christopher Zona

Sure, Alex. So I would say, again, that timing is a direct feedback, as David mentioned, we're going to time that to the commitment requirements of our customers. And so as we get clarity to it, I think that's what you're seeing there. I would say at this very encouraged, I think, is if you look just from a fundamentals perspective in terms of -- we continue to see strong demand signals from upper Midwest utilities, right? You see a number of utilities publishing their plans here for incremental power generation. In Wisconsin, there were some announcements around some new power plant proposals. And I think those are all indicative of kind of the magnitude of the need that's coming in that location. So -- and that would be -- I think Guardian is well positioned to serve that demand.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jean Ann Salisbury with Bank of America.

Jean Ann Salisbury

Gas prices have been a bit softer year-to-date than I think was originally expected. Has your expectation for Haynesville growth in the medium term shifted at all? Are you hearing any changes to Haynesville producer plans for the medium term?

David Slater

Yes, that -- yes, I think that has been a big shift, right? I'd say in the last 2, 3 months, we've seen especially the prompt gas prices really weaken, function of weather and the expectation of weather going into this winter. So it's sort of the tale of 2 stories, right? We've got the short-term bearish sentiment that's sort of playing across the market right now, just exposed against the long-term bullishness of the demand that's coming. just in the last quarter, we've had a Bcf a day of LNG announcements down in the Gulf. So you just see this demand ramp coming. So you've got these 2 phenomenon that are pulling in opposite directions.

So I think the short answer is in the near term, like I think we said earlier on the call, we're seeing some curtailments, particularly in the Northeast, just due to the weak short-term price. I think in the medium to long term, these demand fundamentals start to kick in. So I think we're obviously going into year-end. And as kind of we've said in the past, we always sit and get much more clarity from our producer customers going into the new year on their plan for '27 and '28. This year will be no different. So we'll get a better read on that, obviously, be able to talk with more specifics on the year-end call. But it's a very interesting dynamic that you're highlighting that's setting up right now, short term versus kind of the medium, longer term.

Jean Ann Salisbury

That makes sense. And then as these projects go forward, many of which are yours and some have been referenced on the call that are others, it seems like eventually, there will be a very intense need for more actual Appalachian egress. So I guess I'm just wondering what your latest view on the potential for the NEXUS expansion is and whether that could ultimately be sized bigger than just the sort of pump pads that you originally talked about.

David Slater

Yes. I think we agree with that thesis that you just described. And again, as this demand manifests and it's clearly coming. You see it in the IRPs with the utilities and just as we're expanding and some of the other pipelines in the region are expanding, this demand is real and it's coming. And it's measured in Bcf, not in hundreds of thousands. Just the IRPs for the Michigan utilities, there's 3.5 gigawatts in their IRPs in the early 2030s, which just that alone is 600 million, 700 million a day of gas incremental. So there's lots of really bullish fundamentals kind of materializing in the market right now that is going to support the thesis you just described. In terms of the near term, the NEXUS team is very focused on getting these new interconnects constructed and online. That's kind of step one. So connect the demand to the mainline. Chris, if you have any color on sort of the nuts and bolts of the conversations going on, maybe you can share that Jean Ann.

Christopher Zona

So I would just add to that regarding those interconnects, we're seeing a lot of progress on the construction of those facilities. So that's moving along quite well. And I would say we are already -- have commenced early conversations about that capacity and firming up that capacity on a long-term basis. So it feels very -- to your point, very positive. And the market is real. It's being built. And the concern is now shifting, okay, how do we make sure we feel this for the long term.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Keith Stanley with Wolfe Research.

Keith Stanley

First, I wanted to follow up on G4 on Guardian. You're showing it as a 2031 plus project. So should we think of that as late 2031 at the earliest? And if that's the case, should we think there's probably a fair amount of time you still have to commercialize and be in a position to sanction that?

Christopher Zona

Keith, yes. I think, yes, we have time to do that. I think if we needed to, quite frank, we could pull that forward if the customer needs that, but that is our best estimate based on where they are in their development process right now.

Keith Stanley

Okay. Great. Second one, the Northeast gathering volumes, we're seeing a similar thing this year as last year with some volatility in the volumes with curtailments and the like. What are your expectations just on an annual basis? Do you still think your Northeast gathering system is -- holds flat to some growth? Or how are you thinking about it on an annual basis and over time?

Christopher Zona

My crystal ball is pretty fuzzy, Keith, on this, but I would say this. I think in the way we look at it, we see, given the demand that's coming into the region, kind of in line where I think shorter term, you're looking at a flat type approach. But longer term, that gets into probably a low single-digit growth. I think that's how we look at it in the short term. Obviously, the opportunity is as these load centers and demand centers materialize, there's a lot of, I'll call it, torque in the system here where we can expand rapidly as we need to, to serve those loads. So it's -- as they build it, we can respond, and that's kind of our approach here.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Spiro Dounis with Citi.

Spiro Dounis

I want to start with the capital plan. David, fully respect that it's not coming until February. So really just curious if you're able to offer some high-level thoughts on how the inputs have changed since the last update. Specifically, you talked about the full probability backlog being multiples of the current one. Curious if that's directionally changed or improved? And then as you think about the probability weighting, have you been surprised in either direction at how these projects have progressed, either increasing or lowering the probability?

David Slater

Spiro, great question. Maybe I'll start with the highest level. I think we're very bullish on the portfolio. That bullishness has been building over the last 18 months as the market has been evolving. Lots of opportunities presenting across the entire network. Maybe a way to help frame this for the audience, for you and the audience, would be look back over the last 3 quarters, we've sanctioned $800 million of capital in the last 3 quarters, so Q1, 2 and 3. That's a pretty healthy pace. that probably feeds the bullishness that I feel. So as you said, we will provide clarity on the year-end call. But right now, it feels like the market is very constructive. And again, our -- we're just trying to be very consistent, execute well, strong commitments to the capital deployment in terms of the quality of customers that we're bringing on to the network, the type of contracting that we do and just make this a very durable capital investment cycle. That's really our top priority right now.

Spiro Dounis

Got it. Appreciate the color there, David. Second one, maybe just moving to the Haynesville expansions that you added to that project queue. And sorry if you said it directly, but I assume that means LEAP to the extent that's right. Just curious if you can provide a little more color there. Maybe safe to assume that these are still kind of bite-size expansions, similar to what you've done in the past. And I guess where are you finding most of this interest is coming from early on? Is it supply push, demand pull on the LNG side? It sounds like based on prior comments, this is demand pull driving that.

David Slater

Yes. Good question, Spiro. Thanks for asking. Maybe I'm going to start at the high level, and Chris, maybe you can provide a little more color. But I'd say at the highest level, you're correct. It is demand pull. And there's kind of 2 little swishes on that map going south of Gillis and then east of Gillis. And I'd say at the highest level, we see a lot of demand manifesting on the east side of Louisiana. And that's a combination of incremental LNG demand, domestic power demand that's procuring from this region going into kind of the Southeast area and industrial demand that's occurring. So there's a lot of really interesting fundamentals that are evolving down there. So the thesis is beyond LNG. For the other swish going down towards the coast, it is more LNG driven. But Chris, I don't know if you want to provide some additional color here.

Christopher Zona

No, that's spot on. Yes, I think the way that I think about Spiro is when you look at where our asset sits, right, I mean we sit on some of the best -- the best reserves of the Haynesville, right, through our Haynesville gathering system. We've got a long pathway of economic expansion. That's what we've done on LEAP, right? We're on LEAP 5. We're already talking about LEAP 6, but very economic solution of getting those high-quality reserves to those premium markets. And as David said, those LNG and industrial markets, that combination is a very compelling long-term competitive position for our assets and for the producer customers where this demand pool is coming from. So we can serve those quite well. And I think that's where a lot of our focus is right now. I mean if you think of just the LNG numbers alone, you're hearing numbers that 15 Bcf through mid, early 30s just on that alone plus the industrial demand. So I think a lot of great opportunity there, and we're highly focused in that region.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Brandon Bingham with Scotiabank.

Brandon Bingham

Just one quick one for me. I would like to maybe go over to the coal switching side of things, pretty sizable amount of potential demand there. Just curious, what are some things that could possibly pull that forward coming and kind of hitting the Midwest region sooner than maybe you initially think? Or on the flip side, what might delay some of that converting over to gas in the future?

David Slater

Yes. I think you're accurate that a portion of the demand that's manifesting is coal to gas switching. At the very highest level, it's very attractive to do that when you have an existing kind of brownfield footprint that's already interconnected to the grid. So you sort of bypass that connection friction for lack of a better word. I'm just keeping it simple here in our conversation. So that creates tremendous value for some of these developers is to be -- have confidence that they can connect to the grid reliably. And some of these brownfield sites deliver that.

And then the other thing for us is that we're our location is very advantageous, I'll say it that way, where the pipeline is and where some of these facilities are. So the convergence of those things create a really robust opportunity for us. What could pull it forward or push it back? That's a hard one to speculate on. I think at the highest level, I think as the electric grid continues to tighten and get the demand loads up on the existing grid, the price signal is probably the biggest signal that could accelerate some of these developments. We're watching reserve margins shrinking substantially going down in both MISO and PJM. And that's creating a lot of anxiety for the regulators as they watch that. So the whole thesis around reliability is very front of mind right now for the regulators. So I think those are the elements that could move the timing on some of these opportunities.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Saumya Jain with UBS.

Saumya Jain

You previously mentioned a domino effect where downstream bottlenecks opening up on Vector create more value for upstream assets. So I just wanted some color on how is the ongoing execution of Vector 2028 and then 2030 affecting recontracting rates and capacity utilization on NEXUS? And what structural shifts or utility load sizes in Ohio or Michigan would trigger you moving from an evaluation to an active open season for that expansion?

David Slater

Yes. Thanks for the question. I mean the domino effect is real across our portfolio. And there tends to be a lag, right? The -- what I'll call the last mile happens first and then you kind of see the domino start falling and they move upstream from the demand center. I think G3 occurring in 2028 is good examples of that. I'd say that the next probably -- is probably the storage complex. I don't know if you want to give any color on what you're seeing in the near term in the storage world.

Christopher Zona

Sure. And I'll say a lot of the demand that I referenced earlier in terms of both capacity and deliverability are the same set of customers that are coming on the Vector '28 and Vector 2030 expansions. A lot of those utility customers, that's a very critical component for their needs. Of course, that's driving the pricing point on the capacity. I think we've seen some capacity here going at rates that continue to increase, I'll say, very, very favorable. And I also have quite -- I know quite well that as part of the Vector '30 expansion, there's conversations going on, on the upstream capacity of NEXUS. On NEXUS, we probably have about 300 million a day or so of short-term capacity that the conversation of that could be tied into longer-term commitments. And again, once that domino falls, that would trigger into when we would see a NEXUS expansion would be the next.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of John Mackay with Goldman Sachs.

John Mackay

David, I want to go back to your comments earlier on the elections coming up, kind of watching some of the permitting and regulatory stuff coming out of that. I'm just curious from your conversations with customers, like how much of a focus is it for them? And if things, let's say, go well, could some of the projects you guys are evaluating get pulled forward? I guess, would you expect to see a kind of pickup in contracting activity based on the outcome of next week?

David Slater

Yes. Good question, John. I think, generally speaking, there's a lot of anxious feelings right now going into the midterms. And there's a sense of optimism around the permitting reform legislation that's kind of lingering out there, the bipartisan legislation. So I think what we're watching for is regardless of the outcomes of the midterms, we get on the other side, does Congress really lean into getting this bipartisan permitting reform legislation done. I think that will be the hallmark that the whole market is going to be paying attention to. It's needed. It's needed for all energy forms. It's not just natural gas. It's somewhat agnostic to the -- whether it's the power grid or the gas grid. And we just need to take some friction out of the system on the regulatory process because it creates risk, a lot of risk in some cases. Some of our peers are experiencing that as we speak, surprises. And that's really difficult when you're looking at making big capital investment decisions to have those variables kind of lingering out there that can upset the investment thesis. So I think it's very important for the country to do this. That's what we're really watching closely and leaning in on to the extent that we can be supportive. And I think the entire market is watching that as well, John.

John Mackay

I appreciate that. Maybe my quick follow-up then is, let's say, we actually do get permitting reform done this time. Could that be helpful for your current projects underway in terms of pulling in-service dates forward? Or should we think about that as more likely to be a benefit for, let's say, the next set of projects to be announced?

David Slater

Yes. I'm not sure that in the near term, it's going to change the near-term schedules on any of the demand. But I think what it does do for the longer term and more broadly is it takes risk out of the system and creates some clarity and confidence in the investment community. And specifically for certain parts of the country that are in a difficult spot like New England and New York is probably the hallmark of that comment. They have incredibly high prices because no infrastructure has been built there for the last decade. So I think if we can get through this, if Congress can get through this, it's going to provide some economic relief in areas of the country, and it's going to provide a better risk backdrop for anybody making big capital investments in energy infrastructure, whether it's electric or gas.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Zack Van Everen with TPH Research.

Zackery Van Everen

Maybe the first one back to the Northeast curtailments in Q4. I know historically, you all have talked about some level of MVCs on the gathering side. Are we at those levels at this point? Are there going to be financial impacts? Or is it mostly just on the volume front?

Christopher Zona

Zack, Chris here. I think, this is -- if you look at where our volumes have been traditionally and where we are today, we're well above the MVC amounts here today. So -- and all that's in our guidance is the bottom line.

Zackery Van Everen

Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe one on the supply conversation in the Northeast. What is the upstream ability for Viking to bring more gas down from Canada? Is there the ability for you guys to bring more down? Or would there have to be upstream work done across the border to help bring additional gas down?

Christopher Zona

I would say there's a lot of gas sitting at the border. I think it is an expansion opportunity for us for those northern shippers in Minnesota. So I would say the opportunity is there, and that's something that is a little bit longer term out is what we see in our backlog, but definitely a real opportunity here and would not require significant work upstream. I mean again, it depends on the volume. But those are conversations that we continue to have.

David Slater

Zack, that surprise is very competitive when you look at the pricing. If we could just wave a magic wand and a price determined everything, you'd have incremental volume flowing down Viking right now because of the competitiveness of the Canadian supply at the border. So it's a very interesting opportunity, like Chris said, probably a little further out on the time horizon for us, but we're pursuing that.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to David Slater for closing remarks.

David Slater

Well, I'd just like to thank everybody for joining us today. Appreciate the dialogue, some really good questions today, and thank you for your support of DTM. Look forward to seeing everybody in person in Q4.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.