OFG 2026년 3분기 실적 컨퍼런스 콜: 기업금융 성장, 신용 동향 및 가이던스

핵심 요약

• OFG는 대출 규모 증가와 자동차 대출 연체율의 계절적 조정을 주로 반영하여 2분기 대비 510만 달러 증가한 1,810만 달러의 대손충당금을 기록했습니다.
• 초기 연체율과 총 연체율은 계절적 트렌드로 인해 전분기 대비 각각 2.65%와 3.91%로 상승했으나, 모두 전년 동기 수준을 밑돌았습니다.
• 순상각률과 부실대출 비율은 2026년 2분기 및 2025년 3분기 대비 각각 0.70%와 0.74%로 하락했습니다.
• 기업 신용 건전성이 강화되어 기업 부실대출 비율이 전분기 0.90%에서 0.68%로 하락했습니다. 경영진은 또한 견조한 기업 대출 파이프라인을 보고했습니다.
• OFG는 연간 대출 성장률이 한 자릿수 초반을 기록할 것이라는 전망을 재확인했습니다. 경영진은 공식적인 2027년 가이던스를 제시하지는 않았으나, 대출 파이프라인을 고려할 때 해당 범위 상단을 상회할 기회가 있다고 밝혔습니다.
• 연간 비이자 비용은 2분기에 기록된 580만 달러의 사업 영업 비용을 제외하고 약 3억 8,500만 달러가 될 것으로 예상됩니다. 일회성 항목을 제외한 추정 세율은 22.5%로 유지됩니다.

주요 재무 데이터

사업 및 영업 실적

기업금융은 주요 성장 동력이었습니다. 경영진은 중견기업 및 소상공인 대출과 예금 거래 관계에서의 기회를 언급하며, 2026년을 OFG의 푸에르토리코 기업 금융 사업이 호조를 보인 해로 평가했습니다. 신규 기업 대출 수익률은 기존 포트폴리오 수익률과 유사한 수준이라고 전했습니다.

자동차 대출 취급액은 감소했으나 경영진의 예상보다는 나은 실적을 기록했습니다. 2027년에 대해 경영진은 신차 판매 및 자동차 대출 취급액이 2026년 수준에서 급격한 감소 없이 보합세를 보이거나 소폭 하락할 수 있다는 예비 견해를 밝혔습니다. 회사는 공식적인 2027년 가이던스를 제공하지 않았습니다.

자동차 대출 연체율은 하반기의 일반적인 계절성과 일치하게 완만하게 증가했습니다. 그러나 자동차 대출 순상각은 전년 동기 대비 개선되었고, 회수액은 견실하게 유지되었으며 담보 청산 가치도 안정적이었습니다. 경영진은 계절적 연체 압박이 4분기까지 이어지다가 1분기에 개선될 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.

주택 담보 대출 실적은 연체 지표 하락과 상각액을 상회하는 회수액에 힘입어 견조한 흐름을 유지했습니다. 개인 소비 대출 및 주택 담보 대출 포트폴리오 역시 초기 연체 및 90일 이상 연체 수준이 전년 동기 대비 낮아진 것으로 나타났습니다.

OFG는 푸에르토리코의 리테일 고객 기반이 전년 동기 대비 5% 증가했다고 밝혔습니다. 경영진은 이러한 진전의 일부 원인으로 향후 수입과 지출을 추정하고 중복 청구서 지불 가능성을 알려주는 맞춤형 디지털 툴을 꼽았습니다.

경영진 가이던스

경영진은 2026년 전체 대출 성장률이 한 자릿수 초반을 기록할 것이라는 기대를 유지했습니다. 기업 대출 파이프라인이 더 강한 실적을 뒷받침할 수도 있지만, 회사는 공식 전망치를 상향 조정하는 데까지 이르지는 않았습니다.

대손충당금은 대출 규모 확대와 계절적으로 높아진 자동차 및 소비자 신용 지표를 반영하여 1,800만 달러에서 2,000만 달러 범위로 이동할 것으로 예상됩니다.

OFG는 2분기에 기록된 580만 달러의 사업 영업 비용을 제외하고, 연간 비이자 비용이 약 3억 8,500만 달러가 될 것이라는 기존 목표를 순조롭게 달성 중입니다. 일회성 항목을 제외한 연간 추정 세율은 22.5%로 유지됩니다.

경영진은 12월의 추가적인 25bp 금리 인상에 대해 논의했습니다. 시기적 특성상 OFG는 4분기 순이자이익에 미치는 영향이 제한적일 것으로 예상합니다. 현금 및 우대금리에 연동된 약 5억 달러에서 5억 5,000만 달러 규모의 기업 대출이 금리에 가장 민감한 자산으로 지목되었으며, 추가적인 영향은 그다음 분기에 나타날 것으로 예상됩니다.

자본 배분은 자체적인 대차대조표 성장을 최우선으로 하며, 그다음으로 배당 및 자사주 매입에 집중할 것입니다. 경영진은 자사주 매입이 꾸준하게 유지되어야 하며 시장 상황에 따라 더욱 활발해질 수 있다고 밝혔습니다.

리스크 및 주시해야 할 영역

예금 유치 경쟁과 고객의 금리 민감도는 여전히 순이자마진 고려에 있어 중요한 요소입니다. 고객들이 더 높은 수익률을 추구함에 따라 OFG는 저축성 상품에서 정기예금으로의 이동이 예상보다 크게 나타나는 것을 경험했습니다.

정부 예금은 조달 변동성의 별도 요인입니다. 경영진은 연초 브로커-딜러로 이동한 약 5억 달러를 포함하여 12억 달러 규모의 정부 예금 거래 관계를 논의했습니다. 특정 잔액은 3개월 만기 미국 재무부 단기채 금리에 연동되어 있어 4분기 재조정 리스크에 추가적으로 노출됩니다.

경영진은 인플레이션, 높은 에너지 비용, 상승된 영업 비용 및 기업과 개인 고객에게 영향을 미치는 차입 비용을 모니터링하고 있습니다. 더 광범위한 지정학적 전개 상황도 리스크 요인으로 지목되었습니다.

경영진은 푸에르토리코 경제가 회복력이 있다고 평가하면서도, 금리 상승, 인플레이션, 에너지 비용 증가가 차주들에게 압박을 가할 수 있음을 인정했습니다. 회사는 의미 있는 경제 둔화나 소비자 신용 실적의 악화 징후는 관측되지 않았다고 밝혔습니다.

애널리스트 Q&A 주요 내용

애널리스트들은 푸에르토리코의 경제 전망, 자동차 대출, 예금 경쟁, 순이자마진 압박 및 자본 환원에 주목했습니다.

경영진은 경제 지표가 5%에 가까운 실업률, 높은 임금 수준, 민간 투자를 지속적으로 보여주고 있으며 뚜렷한 경제 악화 징후는 없다고 밝혔습니다. 또한 온쇼어링 활동과 기업 투자를 지지 요인으로 꼽았습니다.

예금 및 마진과 관련하여, 경영진은 단기적인 압박의 주된 원인을 조달 믹스로 돌렸습니다. 2분기 말 약 4억 달러의 정부 예금이 정기예금으로 재조정되어 3분기 전체에 영향을 미쳤습니다. 추가적인 금리 재조정 영향은 4분기에 미칠 것으로 예상됩니다.

자본 환원과 관련하여, OFG는 대차대조표 성장이 여전히 최우선 과제라고 밝혔습니다. 잉여 자본은 배당과 자사주 매입을 통해 환원될 예정이며, 자사주 매입 한도는 1억 8,000만 달러가 남아 있습니다.

실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 전문

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

[Audio Gap]

additional 25 basis points hike in December. Provisions should move into $18 million to $20 million range. This reflects increased loan volume and seasonally higher auto and consumer credit metrics. We remain on track to maintain noninterest expenses at about $385 million for the year, excluding the $5.8 million business operational charge in the second quarter.

Our estimated tax rate for the year continues to be 22.5%, not including discrete items. We will deploy capital prudently across organic growth, dividends and share repurchases, balancing attractive opportunities with long-term shareholders' returns.

Now here, titer.

Thank you, Cesar.

Cesar Ortiz-Marcano

Thank you, Maritza. Please turn to Page 11. All comparisons are to the second quarter unless otherwise noted. Credit reflected disciplined execution, proactive risk management and typical seasonal trends. Provision for credit losses was $18.1 million, up $5.1 million from the second quarter. This reflected $17.5 million for increased loan volumes and $1.3 million due to seasonal adjustments for the auto delinquency. This compares to the second quarter, which included $14.7 million for increased loan volume, partially offset by $1.9 million in commercial loan recovery.

Early and total delinquency rate of 2.65% and 3.91% increased from the second quarter due to seasonal trends, but declined year-over-year. At the same time, net charge-offs and nonperforming loan rates of 0.7% and 0.74% decline compared to second quarter 2026 and third quarter 2025. As a result, third quarter provision was slightly lower than originally anticipated due to better auto and consumer credit metrics.

On the retail side, consumer and residential mortgage portfolios continue to perform well, with both reporting lower early and 90-plus day delinquency levels compared to a year ago. The auto portfolio experienced modest increases in both early and nonperforming delinquency levels compared to the same period last year.

Net charge-offs for auto improved year-over-year and recovery performance remained strong. Collateral liquidation values have remained stable, resulting in consistent loss liberties despite the modest increase in delinquency. This provides additional confidence that the observed seasonal increase in delinquency does not necessarily translate into increased loss content. We continue to closely monitor this trend.

Mortgage performance remains particularly strong with continued improvements across delinquency measures and recoveries continue to exceed charge-offs. As we discussed in prior quarters, first half retail credit performance typically benefit from seasonal factors, including tax reforms and other liquidity events. Then we see a seasonal increase in the credit risk in the second half. Accordingly, part of the third quarter increase in our delinquency metrics reflects decolorization rather than an acceleration in the underlying credit profile of the portfolio.

Our retail portfolio continues to benefit from discipline on the writing and a significantly improved credit profile. As we have previously reported, this reflects tighter on the granting standards, improved portfolio mix and stronger vintage performance.

Turning to Commercial. Our asset quality represents one of the strongest stories within the quarter. Commercial nonperforming loan rates were 0.68% compared to 0.90% in the second quarter. Delinquencies and nonperforming levels are down, exposures have declined and overall asset quality has improved materially. Looking ahead, we remain watchful of inflationary pressures, higher operating costs, elevated energy expenses and the continued impact of higher borrowing costs on both commercial and consumer borrowers. The credit portfolio continues to demonstrate resilience. We believe we are well positioned to navigate the current environment and any potential macroeconomic headwinds that may emerge.

Now here's Jose to wrap up.

José Fernández

Thank you, Cesar. Let's turn to Page 12. The Puerto Rico economy remains resilient. It is supported by healthy consumer and business liquidity, higher wages and historically low unemployment, infrastructure projects and private investment continue to support economic activity, manufacturing expansion and new onshoring initiatives reinforce the long-term economic outlook.

And as Cesar mentioned, we remain attentive to evolving macroeconomic conditions, including higher energy costs, interest rates and inflation while continuing to monitor broader geopolitical developments.

OFG is well positioned for growth. Our detail and the core strategy is driving customer growth and engagement simplifying operations and expanding our market opportunity. We continue investing in people and technology to improve the customer experience and operating efficiency. Our capital strength methodical execution and differentiated franchise positions as well to navigate evolving market conditions.

With this, we end our formal presentation. Operator, please open the call for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We will take our first question from Brett Rabatin with StoneX Group.

질의응답

Brett Rabatin

Wanted to start off, Jose Rafael, I've seen some of the data here in the past few months has been modestly positive for some continued Puerto Rico growth. But if you look at the newspaper articles in Puerto Rico, they seem to be somewhat more and talking about downside risks and the cost of diesel, et cetera. Can you maybe just start off with just what you're seeing on the ground. And what positives and negatives you would kind of point to as it relates to the economy?

José Fernández

Sure. Thank you for your question, Brett. We need to separate a little bit the noise from the facts here in the sense that we're not seeing any deterioration on the economy to speak of. We continue to see unemployment on the 5% handle. We see wages at a higher -- kind of historically highest levels. We're seeing the onshoring coming in, and we see actual private investment flowing through the economy. So the data does not support the noise that we might be reading or listening to locally. And again, it's all driven by -- most of it driven by political kind of discussions and once I kind of challenging the other. But from our perspective and as Cesar mentioned, on the credit side, we continue to see a pretty steady consumer, and we are not seeing any indications of a slowdown in the economy. What we're seeing is a steady economy that continues to chug along and benefiting from the inflows of investment from the U.S. and to us as business continue to invest in their business, and they feel optimistic about their potential growth. So that's as much as I can share with you given the data that we have.

Brett Rabatin

Okay. That's helpful. And then I wanted to just -- it seems like all the Puerto Rico banks have been lamenting that auto has been softer. But when I look at the auto trends, I mean, the origination levels haven't fallen off that much, and it seems like auto is still there relative to what I've seen to hear. Any thoughts on auto from here? And then just the commercial pipeline, I heard the guidance around the low single-digit growth. But just any thoughts as you think about '27, any early reads that growth might be better or worse than what you're seeing this year?

José Fernández

Yes. So to your first point, we are happily surprised with the levels of auto lending originations during this year. We expected a softer market, and we are still there, seeing -- yes, lower originations, but better than what we expected. We really are not ready to give you formal 2027 guidance, but I can give you a little bit of color on how we see the auto business into 2027. I think you'll see the steady, maybe slightly lower new car sales and therefore, you will see also some trends across the market where you will see a lower auto originations. We're actually into those analysis right now. But we feel that given what we saw in 2026, we do not expect auto originations to decline additionally at a faster pace than 2026, we see it pretty stable. That's on the auto side.

On the commercial side, on the other hand, we are seeing very good growth opportunities. We are seeing good opportunities for us to establish new commercial relationships through the lending side as well as on the funding side. Maritza mentioned in her remarks, the pipeline that we continue to have. We're having a banner here on the commercial side in Puerto Rico. And a lot of our work has been put into this year's work. And the team has done a great job on the commercial middle market and small business. So we do feel that we're going to end the year with strong numbers, strong originations, and this quarter is another example of what we have been able to achieve.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Arren Cyganovich with Truist Securities.

Arren Cyganovich

On the deposit side, are you seeing competition increase, demand deposits were down -- savings deposits were down quarter-over-quarter. Anything in particular driving that? I'm sorry if I missed something in the prepared remarks.

José Fernández

Yes. I think Maritza covered it pretty well. I think -- big picture, the seasonality that we see in the first half of the year with funds coming in reflects also on the deposit side. And you'll see a little bit of a softer second half of the year on the funding side just simply because the liquidity is put to work on the commercial side as well as on the individual side, on the retail side. From a competition perspective, look, we're in a competitive market, and we compete and our competitors compete against us. So this is not a cakewalk, trying to gain market share on all the business units as well as growing the bank. So yes, for sure, there's deposit competition. We're also seeing a little bit more sensitivity with higher rates on some -- a higher balance individual clients. They are more sensitive and they're looking for alternatives. We have the wealth management business that benefits from that. So it's fine with us. But at the end, we're just trying to make sure that we service and cater to our customers on a relationship basis. And we feel pretty confident on how we're growing our deposit balances and the deposit relationship with our commercial and retail customers are.

Arren Cyganovich

Great. And as a follow-up on -- in the slide deck discussing the AI insights that are personalized for your customers. Maybe you could talk a little bit about how that works, maybe some examples of how that might be helping the customer experience?

José Fernández

Yes. So it's personalized. It's on the mobile, it's on online. You get your phone or your online. And the first thing you see is this is the expected expenses based on your several months before -- experience is your expected expenses that you're going to be funded. This is your expected income coming in. These are insights that are really unique for the Puerto Rico market. No -- ever as the bank provided those type of insights on such a simple and accessible way. So that's an example.

There's another insight that you get. And these are personalized. This is not based on collective data. This is on specific personalized ins and outs of the clients' checking accounts and savings accounts, et cetera.

We -- another example is we provide insight. You paid the same build twice in the same month, check it out because you might have paid it twice. Those are examples of what those insights provide and the feedback that we're getting -- as mentioned, it provides a pretty positive insights. This is all translating, Arren, into us growing retail customers, 5% year-over-year. And the same thing goes for the Commercial side. And it's something that we have been working on and building on throughout several years, and it's starting to show the results. We're also seeing the opportunity for us to deepen those relationships. So it's not only about bringing in new customers and clients to Oriental, it is also about our opportunity to deepen those relationships and be able to make them primary customers for us. So it's exciting times for us. We're really happy with the way our strategy is progressing and how we're unique in the market and being a different bank than the market is accustomed to see.

Operator

And we'll take our next question from Kelly Motta with KBW.

Kelly Motta

I think I'd like to start off on the margin. You guys undoubtedly have one of the best margins here of the group, but it seems like your expectations near term are a bit more tempered than where you were in July. So I'm wondering kind of in terms of both loan pricing as well as the deposit competition, you've noted -- you're in a competitive environment where the incremental headwinds have been coming from relative to those July expectations.

José Fernández

Thank you for your question, Kelly. And I appreciate you recognizing the margin levels that we have and how we have managed them pretty consistently. Kudos to the team and Maritza overlooking and overseeing all that effort. So I'll let her give you the more details about it.

Maritza Arizmendi

Thank you, Kelly. I think when you look at the range that we should do, we were near the lower end of that range because we were money in several scenarios at this moment, particularly in the funding side, how we will behave in the second part of the year, given the liquidity that is moving and everything. So when you look at what happened during the quarter, we did have some repricing in the government side that we were expecting because we repriced about $400 million of the government deposit at the end of second quarter that were moved into time deposits. So we had the full impact in the third quarter. But secondly, the mix in the down savings and time deposits, we saw more than expected movement to that sort of to the time deposit side of the funding mix. And that's what happened with the initial estimate that we have.

So it's particularly driven by the funding mix. I think that the level of market rates right now, we were expecting no rate hike during the second part of the year. So now we have one. Secondly, we have the treasury notes at its highest level. So we're starting to see more clients looking for high yielding type of product. So we are there for our customers. So that's why time deposits were higher than expected during the second quarter -- third quarter.

Kelly Motta

That kind of ties into my next question, which is mostly a point of clarification as well as a look ahead. the government deposits, you had some go to wealth at the beginning of the year and then you had the -- what you had already disclosed is moving to being termed out to CDs in June, that's created some variability in those demand deposits. Just wanted to confirm that -- those balances are now one out of demand deposits. And then as we kind of look ahead, it seems like -- Clients are being driven by more rate-sensitive accounts. Do you think this is kind of a place where we can stabilize? Or would you anticipate some additional migration of excess funds to time here?

Maritza Arizmendi

Yes. Let me make sure you're asking about the government deposits or...

Kelly Motta

Yes.

Maritza Arizmendi

Okay. So that's a particular deposit that we have been managing for a long period of $1.2 billion, about $500 million moved to the broker deal at the beginning of the year. Then end of second quarter, we made two time deposits. One actually matures end of third quarter with reprices that will impact this fourth quarter coming. So the answer is that we will see some repricing there because of that condition. All these deposits are tied to 3-month treasury bills. So they will have some reflection of what the market is experiencing.

José Fernández

Yes. And it's a good point that Maritza makes because that's very much separate to the actual core client deposit funding that we have on the retail and commercial. The lines are completely different.

Maritza Arizmendi

Are necessarily tied to market, right?

José Fernández

Correct. Correct. So it's good that you asked that question, Kelly, because we might have some -- there might be some confusion among the market.

Kelly Motta

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. Maybe last question for me, and then I'll step back. I appreciate you guys reiterated the low single-digit growth outlook for the year. You're kind of already there in 3Q. Obviously, commercial growth was super strong. Wondering about the pine ahead and what could potentially push you slightly above that if you're successful in curing loans again in Q4?

José Fernández

Yes. So to answer your question, Kelly, is, yes, we're very confident that we're going to have low single-digit loan growth for the full year. And we work hard to do better. And the strong pipeline that we have gives us confident that we have a chance to do better. So that's share.

Operator

And we'll take our next question from Manuel Navas with Piper Sandler.

Manuel Navas

I appreciate the commentary. Just kind of following up on the NIM here. How should we think about the December hike post you kind of get past some of these. It seems more like unique public fund repricing moments that might be impacting the near-term NIM in the fourth quarter. How should we think about future hikes impact on into earlier next year?

Maritza Arizmendi

Yes. We will update at the end of the year with how we see 2027. But -- I can answer on the matter of the December hike, it would be something similar to this quarter that it happened at the end of September. And as I've shared with you in my prepared remarks, the more elastic asset is the cash and also the -- about $500 million, $550 million in the commercial portfolio, which is like to prime rate and the other happens only through the next quarter. So that's how we see that. So it won't be much of an impact on the fourth quarter NII.

José Fernández

The fourth quarter interest rate hike.

Maritza Arizmendi

Interest rate hike.

Manuel Navas

Sure. Sure. I guess also, separately, you had a lot of loan growth coming at the end of the quarter. Do you have a sense for new loan yields for that -- especially for that piece, maybe like September new loan yields?

José Fernández

Yes. Similar to the portfolio yields, it's a market that at those levels that were originated on the commercial Puerto Rico side. So that you should use that as a guidance.

Manuel Navas

Okay. And then I like that the buyback restarted this quarter. Just kind of thoughts on its pace. I know you're doing shareholder capital return, but just kind of a current update on capital deployment and the pace buyback?

José Fernández

Yes, yes. So we look at loan growth and balance sheet growth first. We certainly are very proactive on the capital management, and we'll continue to do so. We'll mix between dividend and the buyback. So you'll see us being pretty steady on the buyback and probably more active as their folks in the market. But overall, the capital management strategy remains the same. We want to deploy our capital for growth on the balance sheet and the excess capital that we have, we deploy it through dividends and buyback. We still have $180 million on the buyback. So that is ample space for us to go out and go into the market.

Manuel Navas

I appreciate that. My last question is a little bit on digging in deep on credit. I credit trends are really strong. The commercial trends are excellent. Just want to cover all my bases. Delinquencies tick higher in auto and a little bit higher, I think, year-over-year as well as linked quarter. Any extra color there? Is this still well within the normal seasonal increases and you kind of expect a seasonal increase in the fourth quarter and then an improvement in the first quarter of next year as well. Is that the right trajectory to think about?

Cesar Ortiz-Marcano

Yes, that startled by are right. The seasonality works from first quarter improving and then picking up to the fourth quarter. So we still expect that trend to happen this year, too.

Manuel Navas

Anything significant auto this year versus last year?

Cesar Ortiz-Marcano

No. We continue seeing the resiliency on the customers as -- you see in the credit performance of the customers. So far, the portfolio is behaving very well. The economy is close too. So those two together give us comfort on the credit performance of our portfolio.

José Fernández

Yes. And as Cesar mentioned, we're very cognizant about what's going on with higher interest rates and inflation and energy and all that stuff. But all those things are happening when Puerto Rico's economy is sitting in a much different position than in years past, and it makes a different behavior for consumers simply, that's what's going on. So the performance that you're seeing on the consumer side -- on the credit consumer side, it's a reflection of the economy and all the things that we talked about earlier in the call.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] At this time, there are no further questions. I will now turn the call back over to management for closing remarks.

José Fernández

Thank you, operator. Thanks again to all our team members for a great job in the quarter, and thanks to all our stakeholders who are listening. Looking forward to see you next time.

Operator

Thank you. This does conclude today's program. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.