プレーンズ・オール・アメリカン（PAGP）2026年第3四半期決算説明会：調整後EBITDA 7億1,100万ドル

主要なポイント

• プレーンズ・オール・アメリカンが発表した2026年第3四半期の調整後EBITDAは7億1,100万ドルとなり、業務効率化、年次のFERC運賃引き上げ、ならびに第2四半期比での環境修復費用の減少が下支えとなった。
• 経営陣は通期の調整後EBITDA予想レンジを28億8,000万ドル（±5,000万ドル）へと狭め、現在の市場環境下では中間値またはそれをわずかに上回る水準を見込んでいる。
• 同社はカクタスIII買収による5,000万ドルのシナジーを創出しており、2026年末までに全社的な効率化を通じてさらに5,000万ドルの効果を達成する軌道に乗っている。
• 新たな10年契約により、パーミアン・ミッドランド集荷システムに27万エーカーの専属契約面積が加わり、パーミアン全体の専属契約面積は530万エーカー超に達した。経営陣は業績寄与が2027年後半または2028年初頭に始まると見込んでいる。
• 新たにシルバースパーと改称されたシステムは日量約12万5,000バレルを輸送し、91万5,000エーカーの専属契約面積を擁する。経営陣は2027年を移行と投資の年と位置づけており、2028年以降の力強い成長を見込んでいる。
• 総額15億ドルの劣後債発行と優先出資口の償還により、普通出資者向けの年間分配可能キャッシュフロー（DCF）は約6,000万ドル（1口当たり0.09ドル）増加する見込みだ。

主要財務データ

事業および操業実績

プレーンズ・オール・アメリカンは5月にカナダのNGL（天然ガス液）事業の売却を完了した。これに伴い、第3四半期の決算報告ではNGLセグメントが除外され、原油に特化した単一の連結セグメントとして開示されている。経営陣は、この事業移行によってキャッシュフローの安定性と成長機会が向上するとの見解を示した。

パーミアン・ミッドランド盆地において、同社は大手の総合エネルギー生産企業と、専属契約面積27万エーカーを対象とする10年間の集荷（ギャザリング）契約を締結した。この契約には、パイプラインへの接続工事が依然として必要な既存の生産分が含まれる。経営陣は2027年後半または2028年初頭に業績への貢献が始まると見込んでおり、設備投資額やスケジュールなどの詳細は2月に公表する予定である。

シルバー・クリーク（Silver Creek）の買収は10月1日に完了し、「シルバースパー（Silver Spur）」に改称された。パウダーリバー盆地に位置する同システムは、現在日量約12万5,000バレルを輸送しており、長期契約に基づく専属契約面積は91万5,000エーカーに達する。プレーンズの既存ネットワークとの統合により、ガーンジー地区を経由してカッシングに至る接続性が確保される。

経営陣は、2027年末までシルバースパーシステムへの投資を継続する見通しだ。その期間中に移行支援サービスや統合に伴う費用は減少する一方、新たな市場機会が開拓され、既存のパイプラインやターミナルにも好影響がもたらされると期待されている。経営陣によると、買収マルチプルは最初の12カ月間でおよそEBITDAの9〜10倍であり、その後は低下していく見込みだという。

経営陣の業績見通し（ガイダンス）

経営陣は、2026年のパーミアン盆地における生産量の伸びが従来予想レンジの上限近く、年末比較（exit-to-exitベース）で日量約20万バレルに達すると予想している。同社は、天然ガスの輸送能力改善、リグ稼働数増加、掘削効率向上、原油増進回収技術を、2027年に向けた成長の原動力候補として挙げた。

第4四半期については、ガイダンスから示唆される調整後EBITDAは約7億ドルとなる。経営陣は、第2四半期と第3四半期に得られた市場機会の一部が落ち着くと予想している。当四半期にはシルバースパーの寄与が見込まれるものの、移行・統合費用や、将来期待されるシナジーがまだ発現していないことから、短期的な恩恵は限定的なものにとどまる見通しだ。

同社は2月に2027年の正式なガイダンスを発表する予定である。経営陣は、パーミアンでの輸送量増加、投資プロジェクト、シルバースパー、効率化の進展を潜在的な追い風として挙げた。一方で、直近の市場動向に関連した収益機会をそのまま年換算して2027年の見通しに織り込むべきではないと警鐘を鳴らした。

リスクと主な注目点

• 経営陣は、地政学的リスクに伴う継続的な市場の変動性、世界的な石油供給の混乱、およびエネルギーインフラへの被害を強調した。
• パーミアン盆地における追加パイプライン輸送能力の稼働時期は、生産量の伸びや顧客需要、契約条件、原油市場の変動性に左右されるため、依然として不透明である。
• 直近の市場機会が第2四半期と第3四半期の業績を押し上げたものの、経営陣は2027年に同様の恩恵が繰り返されるとは想定していない。
• シルバースパーは、経営陣が力強い成長を見込む2028年を前に、短期的には事業移行、統合、および投資に伴うコストに直面する。
• 経営陣は、ボルトオン型（既存事業補完型）の買収機会は近年よりも頻度が下がる可能性があると述べる一方、より広範なM&Aについては投資利回りの基準や資本規律を厳格に順守する姿勢を崩していない。

アナリスト質疑応答（Q&A）の要点

経営陣は、現在の事業活動に基づくと、当面の間パーミアンの生産量は日量20万〜30万バレル増加する可能性があると述べた。メキシコ湾岸に向かうパイプラインはすでに90%近くが埋まっているものの、同社は同盆地の原油搬出は今後数年間問題なく継続できるとみている。

パーミアンでの追加輸送能力は、単一の大規模な新設（グリーンフィールド）パイプラインよりも、段階的な既存設備拡張（ブラウンフィールド）プロジェクトを通じて実現する可能性が高い。経営陣は2028年から2029年初頭にかけて拡張工事が行われる可能性があると見込んでおり、需要や契約、運賃水準が投資に見合うものとなれば、カクタスIIIの輸送能力を段階的に増強していくと説明した。

シルバースパーについて、経営陣はパウダーリバー盆地をロッキー山脈地域における将来の成長基盤と位置づけている。生産者は油井の生産性向上とコスト低下を報告しており、リグの追加配備を検討している企業もある。プレーンズはまた、輸送量の増加がカッシングに向かう同社の下流パイプラインやターミナルの稼働を下支えすると見込んでいる。

M&Aに関して経営陣は、プレーンズが過去3〜4年間に約15件のボルトオン買収を完了したと述べた。同社はオーガニック（自律的）な成長機会と買収機会の双方を継続して検討しているが、いかなる案件も原油戦略、資本規律、および利回り要件に合致している必要があるとした。

決算説明会トランスクリプト全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Plains All American Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please advise that today's conference is being recorded.

I'd now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Blake Fernandez, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Blake Fernandez

Thank you, Marvin, good morning, and welcome to the Plains All American third quarter 2026 earnings call. Today's slide presentation is posted on the Investor Relations website under the News and Events section at ir.plains.com. An audio replay will also be available following today's call. Important disclosures regarding forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures are provided on Slide 2. An overview of today's call is provided on Slide 3, a condensed consolidating balance sheet for PAGP and other reference materials are in the appendix.

Today's call will be hosted by Willie Chiang, Chairman and CEO and President; Al Swanson, Executive Vice President and CFO, along with other members of our management team.

With that, I'm going to turn the call over to Willie.

Willie Chiang

Thank you, Blake. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. This morning, we reported strong third quarter adjusted EBITDA attributable to plans of $711 million. Al will provide additional details on the quarterly results in his portion of the call. Our business is operating well, and we continue to demonstrate steady growth as we executed on the three initiatives that we established at the beginning of the year. First, we closed on the sale of our Canadian NGL business in May, which completes our shift to a premier crude oil midstream company and improves the quality of our cash flow and our opportunities for growth going forward. Second, we have captured $50 million of synergies in connection with the Cactus III Pipeline acquisition. And third, we remain on track to deliver $50 million of efficiencies across the organization by year-end 2026.

As we outlined on Slide 4, we have multiple levers to efficiently grow the business through a combination of organic and inorganic investment opportunities that complement our existing asset base. To further expand on the organic growth projects that we detailed in the second quarter, we're pleased to announce a 10-year agreement with the large integrated producer to further build out our Permian Midland gathering system. This new agreement includes 270,000 dedicated acres, and it provides additional growth opportunities to the POP JV, bringing our total dedicated acreage in the Permian to more than 5.3 million acres.

Outside of the Permian, we successfully closed the Silver Creek acquisition, which we have renamed Silver Spur on October 1. This further expands our presence within the Powder River Basin, where substantial drilling location with attractive economics support robust producer development into the future. Silver Spur is a strategic addition to our Rockies platform. The system currently transports approximately 125,000 barrels a day underpinned by a diversified customer base and includes 915,000 dedicated acres with long-term contractual commitments. By integrating these gathering assets into our existing network, we enhance our customer offering with long-term haul connectivity to cushing, creating commercial and operational synergies that support long-term cash flow growth.

During the quarter, we also took steps to optimize our balance sheet with a successful junior subordinated notes offering and the subsequent redemption of our preferred securities. Al will provide more detail, but these transactions meaningfully simplify our capital structure and are accretive to distributable cash flow moving forward.

On the macro front, the geopolitical landscape remains volatile with ongoing disruptions to global oil supply and damage to energy infrastructure. Global demand has remained resilient and oil inventories, including strategic petroleum reserves continued depleting, which is supporting the crude oil futures curve. Through this environment, North America remains critical to help meet global energy needs. More specific to the Permian, we expect production growth to be towards the high end of our previous range, about 200,000 barrels a day on a year-end exit-to-exit basis for 2026. The improving natural gas egress, higher rig counts over the past 6 months, continued developments of various formations in the Permian and continued advancements in drilling efficiencies and enhanced recovery techniques should and will provide momentum into 2027. We will provide a more formal outlook for 2027 Permian growth on our call in February.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Al to cover our quarterly performance and other financial matters.

Al Swanson

Thanks, Willie. Slide 5 contains adjusted EBITDA walk that provide additional details on our performance. Please note that 3Q reporting removes the NGL segment and includes one single consolidated segment for the entire company, which aligns with the sale of our Canadian NGL business that closed in May. For the third quarter, we reported adjusted EBITDA of $711 million, reflecting the benefit of operating efficiencies, annual [ ferc ] tariff rate escalations and a reduction in environmental remediation expenses relative to the second quarter.

As highlighted on Slide 6, we are on track to achieve our guidance targets for the year and narrowing the EBITDA range to plus or minus $50 million with a midpoint of $2.88 billion. Based on prevailing macro environment, we would expect to be at or slightly above the midpoint of the range for the year.

A summary of 2026 guidance and key assumptions are on Slide 7. We will provide guidance for 2027 on our call in February.

Slide 8 illustrates strong distributable cash flow generation. In September, we successfully raised $1.5 billion of 30-year junior subordinated notes, which mature in 2056, consisting of $700 million of 6.75% Series A notes, which are callable in 5 years and $800 million of 7% Series B notes, which are callable in 10 years. Subsequently, we used the proceeds along with cash on hand and commercial paper borrowings to redeem all of our Series A and Series B preferred units. This capital structure optimization is expected to increase annual distributable cash flow to common unitholders by approximately $60 million or $0.09 per unit while maintaining leverage within our targeted range.

With that, I will turn the call back to Willie.

Willie Chiang

Thank you, Al. I'm pleased with our performance year-to-date and the continued execution on our key initiatives. Our crude oil business with a more durable and predictable cash flow stream post NGL sale really positions us well for a variety of macro market conditions.

As we show on Slide 9, we continue to execute our efficient growth strategy the three announcements this quarter again demonstrate the multiple levers that we have to drive growth, including organic investments, inorganic bolt-on M&A and balance sheet optimization. We remain committed to capital discipline, maintaining a stable and flexible balance sheet and continuing to return cash to unitholders.

With that, I'll turn the call back to Blake to lead us into Q&A.

Blake Fernandez

Thanks, Willie. As we enter the Q&A session, please limit yourself to two questions. This will allow us to address as many questions as possible from our participants that are available time this morning.

With that, Marvin, we're ready for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Manav Gupta of UBS.

質疑応答

Manav Gupta

I wanted to ask you a little bit more on the 270,000-acre Midland dedication. As you ramp towards the 225 target of volumes, how should we think about the earnings uplift that this opportunity provides.

Jeremy Goebel

Manav, this is Jeremy Goebel. We're going to give you more guidance on that in February. But think of that as existing production. So it's not a ramp to production. It's just a matter of timing for connection. So that contribution will likely be late 2027, early 2028 when the connection is done, but we'll give you more guidance on capital and timing next year. But we're excited about the opportunity to partner with a top-tier producer and look forward to providing those services over a long period of time and expanding our Midland footprint.

Manav Gupta

Perfect, sir. The second question I wanted to ask you, I mean, maybe I understand there's crude volatility. But what are you hearing from the producers generally in the Permian? Do they expect continue to grow production. We know the big guys, Exxons of the world, definitely want to grow. And what we are trying to solve from our side is, when does the Permian egress start to get tightened again? Is it late 2028? Is it 2029? When do you see to the point where these existing Permian pipes, even with the Cactus III expansion are like almost 90% full?

Jeremy Goebel

Got it. Manav, that is a great question. What I would say is the volatility you experience every day waking up and seeing a headline in crude move $8 to $10, they're experiencing the same. So from a planning perspective, I think you can expect 200,000 to 300,000 barrels a day of growth for the foreseeable future based on the activity you see today. You've added 30 rigs this year, you've gotten more efficient this year. You're just starting to add completion crews. So the 200,000 barrels a day of growth that we've seen through this year, we would expect that to continue. The pipes to the coast are close to 90% full now. I think what you would see is the total basin will grow 200,000 to 300,000 barrels a day. The basin will clear for several more years. But I think your timing is appropriate for additional brownfield expansions in that '28 to '29 time period to see additional capacity come to market. So there's no need for a greenfield large pipeline at this time based on the ratable growth that we see and the smaller number of players driving growth, it seems like it's going to be orderly and that growth will happen over that time period. But your -- sometime in 2028 to early 2029, I think you'll see additional brownfield expansions. But by and large, I think rates are constructive, dialogues constructive with counterparties. We continue to recontract the pipes that we have now and look forward to continue growing the business.

Willie Chiang

Manav, this is Willie. I just wanted to add one thing. But your question is spot on. It's very difficult to predict the exact timing of it because just of the global volatility. But as I sit back and we think about what's going on in the world, global demand has remained fairly resilient. There's a lot of noise in the supply chains. If you look at where the resources are and where the demand centers are for the world. It all points to North America really being an incremental producer. So the capacity that we've got out of the Permian is meaningful, and we've got the ability to expand Cactus III. And as we've said before, we're going to match that expansion capacity to what the demand is to get to the water, but I think it really sets up for a strong macro environment going forward, trying to analyze and pick exactly when it's going to happen is very, very difficult, but we'll be patient and we stand ready to be able to meet the needs.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Julian [indiscernible] of Jefferies.

Unknown Analyst

Can you hear me okay?

Willie Chiang

We can hear you loud and clear.

Unknown Analyst

Excellent. Look, a couple of things. Maybe just zeroing in and net picking just on the quarter itself 4Q was implied here, how do you think a little bit about just implying down? Is there any specific drag here on the -- like forthcoming quarter? And then digging a little bit more strategically to the last question here, what do you think the timing of evaluating that Cactus III expansion is vis-a-vis you talk about that '28 timeline for a brownfield expansion. When do you start moving on that, and we're getting a little bit more detail on -- I presume that that's the brownfield expansion you're getting at here.

Al Swanson

Julian, this is Al. I'll do the first part. Implied, obviously, in our guidance is about $700 million for the fourth quarter, down about 10% from the third quarter. The real change is the market opportunities that we've experienced in 2Q and 3Q that really masked that's really driving the $10 million lower number plus the inclusion of Silver Creek for the fourth quarter. If you recall, our view is Silver Creek's an asset that's going to grow meaningfully over the next few years. 4Q included in our forecast is without the benefit of some of that growth some transition services costs, integration costs, et cetera, and without the synergies. So those two basically offset the step down in some of the market opportunity that we captured kind of as the war started for second quarter and third quarter.

Jeremy Goebel

Julian, for your second part, the shorter answer is we're continually evaluating them. Just as you saw this summer, we added 75,000 barrels a day we're looking at incremental ability to add as the market demands. And so I think you'll see us ramp over that time period. There are segments of pipe we have to build to access additional markets. So it's not -- I don't know that you'll see one grand announcement series of announcements to get the pipeline ready. And then as contracts and rates are appropriate, we'll add the additional capacity. So it's not -- I don't think it's going to be one step change, another 300,000 barrels a day. I think you're going to see a series of expansions that go based on market demand.

Unknown Analyst

Got it. Excellent. And you picked up what I was trying to put down on that 4Q and on the Silver Creek piece and the contribution. But maybe talking about the TRB more broadly here. I mean obviously, you're acquiring here. How do you think about diversification in that geography here, post midterms, et cetera? Anything that you'd flag in terms of just this more strategic repositioning and adding on the margin maybe, but any points to complement your latest position there?

Jeremy Goebel

We're very excited about the Silver Spear asset. I think the Powder River Basin is one that's been candidly evaluated for over some time period, and they're just starting to figure it out. So I think it's going to ramp into 2028. We have to continue to build out the system now through 2027, but there's a series of NBCs. There's 915,000 of acreage dedications. There's 4 to 5 producers that are already telling us that the wells are better and they cost less, and they're looking to potentially add a rig into the system. So we can see the Powder River Basin as the next growth wedge in the Rockies. And that positions well for us not only on the Silver Spur asset from a gathering standpoint, but then also from a pull-through benefit to our pipelines and terminals in the Guernsey area headed south through to Cushing. So it's an integrated play for us. It's a growth on a stand-alone basis but also an integrated place. We're excited about the opportunity to work with some of our large producers that are also there.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet of JPMorgan Securities.

Francina Kolluri

This is Francina on for Jeremy. Just wanted to zoom in a bit more on that kind of Silver Creek contribution point in 4Q. How would you kind of maybe frame or size run rate contributions and then the kinds of projects that might be incremental to kind of reach that run rate in terms of thinking about capital needs to really capture that low-hanging fruit.

Jeremy Goebel

So think of the fourth quarter as transition. There's a transition services agreement, which has some additional costs that will go away. So typically, it takes us a few months to shut off. So we'll go into next year it will be inside that cost of capital very quickly that our long-term run rate. So we have to -- from a there's an investment that needs to be made between now and the end of 2027. So it will really catch its legs in the 2028 and forward, like I said, a series of MVCs and acres dedication, but we'll be shedding costs, adding market opportunities doing some pull-through benefits on the asset through 2027. So that will be the transition year, and it will really -- 2028 forward will be a great thing for the asset. But it's inside of 10x when we start, and it compresses well inside of our cost of capital outside of that. So it's not -- from an EBITDA standpoint, you can think of this as roughly 9 to 10x in the first 12 months. And after that, it gets well inside that.

Francina Kolluri

That's very helpful. And then I just wanted to maybe talk more broadly about the M&A landscape. A lot of your peers have taken on packages this year. And so is there anything that's remaining, anything that looks interesting at this point?

Willie Chiang

Yes. I'll go ahead and take that one. This is Willie. Clearly, we've done a lot of bolt-on M&A or bolt-on acquisitions. So I'll speak about bolt-ons and then broader activities. We've actually been the ones that have been executing on a lot of these bolt-ons. We look at everything I would tell you that I think the bolt-on opportunities are probably a little less than what the pace we've gone in the past. I think we've done 15 of these over the last 3, 4 years. So it's been very critical to our piece. A broader M&A is obviously an opportunity. But right now, we focus on our crude business. We've got -- anything we do focuses on returns. So if we think about assets that we might bring in or things we may do, it's really focused around capital discipline and returns. And it's with that lens that we think about broader M&A, but look at everything, well positioned. Opportunities come our way, we'll be able to hopefully capture them.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of AJ O'Donnell of TPH Research.

Andrew John O'Donnell

I was just hoping if I could just sneak in one more question about the new Midland dedication. Just wondering, as far as the makeup of the the volumes, are there any MVC components that are built into that? And then if you could talk about any of the volumes that are currently producing because I thought you said it was existing production. Are any of those volumes currently moving on your intrabasin or long-haul systems?

Willie Chiang

Jeremy?

Jeremy Goebel

AJ, this is Jeremy. What I would say is these are acreage dedications consistent with the rest of the system on the contract structure. The vast majority of this would be going into existing systems just into the Midland complex to say whether a specific barrels flowing through us. They're not providing any meaningful contribution to us today. And so this is just something that is a new contract from the gathering system for us.

Andrew John O'Donnell

Okay. Maybe just going back to the Permian macro. If we start to see this kind of compounding multiple hundred thousands of barrels of growth over the next few years, where do you see the most upside? Or what part of your system do you get most excited about? Is it like the incremental C3 expansions that you can do or market-based opportunities on your marketing affiliate? Or is the highest torque maybe higher utilization on your northbound assets out of the Permian?

Jeremy Goebel

AJ, it's a great question. I'd say it's a bit of all of the above because filling the pipe is one thing. What we really get excited about is longer term, the additional improvements that the industry makes on recoveries, sustaining this for long periods of time, which is what we hear over and over again from our producer customers. The excitement around the surfactants, the excitement around the different completion techniques the investments Exxon, Chevron and the other integrators are made to extending the tail. That's what really gets us excited is that the long-term recoveries. There's a lot of gas and a lot of NGLs and a lot of excitement, but that's going to make those commodities worth a lot less. There still are going to be oil reservoirs driven by oil. So there's a real investment being made to continue to drive additional recovery. So on the oil side, flattening out the curve, having less capital to go chase this, big free cash flow generation and a stable balance and -- on the margin rates going out on the long-haul business is a plus, but the gathering business should be better. The long-haul business should be better marketing-based opportunities around it. So it's just an integrated platform that we have to serve our customers, and we look forward to expanding with them.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of John McKay of Goldman Sachs.

John Mackay

I'll go back to the Midland dedication. Congrats on that. I just want to make sure we're thinking about it correctly. I know we'll get color later on kind of associated EBITDA and any associated spend. But given this is production that's already flowing elsewhere? I mean is there an acquisition opportunity here for you guys over time on kind of whatever this production is [indiscernible] right now?

Jeremy Goebel

John, I'd say at this point, that's inappropriate for us to talk about. But from our standpoint, we look forward to executing under the contract that we have today.

John Mackay

All right. Fair enough. And -- sorry go ahead. Please go ahead.

Willie Chiang

Sorry, John, this is Willie. I mean as I think about high level, right, our whole business is integrated. So we've got -- we've been gathering intra-basin long haul. So the thought of getting another dedicated acres into the system. This is just what we do.

John Mackay

No, absolutely. That makes sense. Maybe I...

Willie Chiang

I'm sorry. I was quoting -- I misquoted the -- it's 270,000 acres here versus the 900 was up in Silver Green, the Powder River. My apologies on that. [indiscernible].

John Mackay

Absolutely. And maybe just on that point, you've probably increased the size of the dedicated acreage on the JV by looks like 30% since you kind of put it together about 5 years ago, I think we're just passed a 5-year anniversary. Can you take this opportunity to give us your view on kind of the longer-term strategic plan here? Is there an opportunity to kind of find the other piece at some point? Is this going to be a kind of vehicle you can kind of continue to grow in? Maybe just give us an update now that we're kind of 5 years past the launch of it.

Jeremy Goebel

Sure. We've had a great partnership with Stonepeak and the Works Team, and we'll continue to have a great partnership with them. That's their decision on when they decide to get out. But we've proven with them that we can grow, like you said, 30% growth over 5 years is really a 50% growth from where you started like when you think about it. So it's been a great run. It will continue to be a great run we're happy for them to grow with us. But just like everything else, we've bought a lot of our partnerships in when that's the right time if that works, great. If they want to stay outstanding great if a new partner comes in, we're prepared to work in any scenario. And we continue to grow as we've proven with them as a partner, we can grow with them or if the opportunity comes, we could do that. So I think there's no obligation to do it. There's an opportunity to do it, but there's no different than the opportunity to buy and other partners that we've had across our system.

John Mackay

Congrats again on [indiscernible].

Willie Chiang

Thanks, John.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Praneeth Satish of Wells Fargo.

Praneeth Satish

So I know it's still early, but maybe you can help us think through some of the puts and takes for 2027 EBITDA. I know you've got a few tailwinds here, $50 million cost synergies or cost efficiencies in the full year, Silver Creek, Cactus III, probably going to see volume growth on the oil side with the flush volumes coming in. So you put that all together, it does seem like you could see some reasonable growth in '27. So maybe what are some of the key headwinds that are kind of offsetting factors that we should think about when modeling '27 growth?

Willie Chiang

Al?

Al Swanson

This is Al. Yes, I mean, we've articulated kind of the four things, and I think you answered a meaningful part of our -- of the question. Clearly, PLA, we came in this year pretty highly hedged in the low 60s, we'll probably be in the low to mid-60s by the time we exit with realized prices this year, clearly, it's setting up for meaningful improvement there, $10 a barrel is a little over $40 million. So that's a definite tailwind. Clearly, the production growth the $200,000 a day, that 1,000 barrels a day that Jeremy mentioned, a lot of that came light. We expect that to benefit in in addition to the excess rigs and the '27 growth itself. So we see the Permian volumes as a benefit. Clearly, the investment capital, whether it's our true investment expansion capital like the recent Cactus expansion. In addition, the Silver Creek acquisition as well. Those benefits will come to '27. And then the additional efficiency gains that we've talked about, the incremental $50 million, probably the one caveat or "headwind" we would point to, if you're taking that in the last three quarters of this year, the crude is right around $700 million a quarter. If you were just taking that -- annualizing it and then putting all this growth on it, clearly, we've had some market benefits in those numbers. So we would encourage you to maybe dial in a little bit of taking out some of those market opportunities. Maybe we'll see the opportunity to get those in '27, but it wouldn't be -- we wouldn't come into the year expecting to see a repeat of some of that opportunity.

Praneeth Satish

Got you. No, that's helpful. And then there are several proposed Western Canadian egress projects that could bring more barrels into the Mid-Continent. I think at least one project that would go directly into Cushing. And I don't think they're expanding capacity from pushing down. So I guess as you look across your asset footprint and I don't know whether it's Capline or other systems. Do you see any opportunities to participate or after that incremental flow?

Jeremy Goebel

Praneeth, that's a great question. And certainly, any of the crude projects we're looking to see if we can benefit, complement, participate, so we'll keep you posted along the way, but we're constantly looking at opportunities to see if we can either partner with good projects, participate, create new projects. So we'll have more updates in the next 6 months if any of that comes to fruition. But certainly, things that complement us, we're actively looking at on the organic side as well as the acquisition side.

Operator

I'm showing no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn it back to Willie Chiang, Chairman and CEO, for closing remarks.

Willie Chiang

Great. Well, listen, thanks for your ongoing support questions, and we look forward to seeing you on the road soon. Have a safe day. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.