Barings BDC(BBDC)2026年第3四半期決算説明会:安定したNAV、4億ドルのCLOリファイナンス
ベアリングスBDCの2026年第3四半期決算は、1株当たり純資産価値(NAV)が10.92ドルとほぼ横ばいとなり、純投資利益(NII)で四半期配当が全額カバーされた。ポートフォリオは約5,000万ドル増加して約25億ドルに達し、加重平均利回りは10.2%を維持した。元利金請求停止債権(ノンアクルーアル)比率は1.1%へ小幅に上昇した。財務面では、4億ドルの新規CLOファイナンスのプライシングを実施し、11月期限の無担保社債の満期に対応した。経営陣は配当の維持を見込む一方、信用問題や借り換えコストの上昇が今後のリスク要因になると指摘している。
ベアリングスBDC(NYSE: BBDC)は、2026年第3四半期の純資産価値(NAV)の安定と配当の全額カバーを発表した。ポートフォリオの拡大に伴いレバレッジは経営陣の目標レンジ上限付近まで上昇した一方、新たに実施した4億ドルのCLO(ローン担保証券)ファイナンスによって、同社にとって直近で最大となる債務の満期に対応した。
主なポイント
- 2026年9月30日時点の1株当たり純資産価値(NAV)は10.92ドルとなり、6月30日時点の10.94ドルからほぼ横ばいとなった。
- 純投資利益(NII)は2,720万ドル(1株当たり0.26ドル)となり、四半期配当(1株当たり0.26ドル)を全額カバーした。
- BBDCは1億9,600万ドルの投資を実行し、1億4,600万ドルの売却および回収を計上したことで、ポートフォリオは約5,000万ドルの純増となった。
- 公正価値ベースの投資ポートフォリオは約25億ドルに達した。債権およびその他インカム創出証券の加重平均利回りは10.2%を維持した。
- 公正価値ベースの元利金請求停止債権(ノンアクルーアル)比率は1.1%に上昇した。シエラ案件を通じて取得し信用補完契約の対象となっている資産を除いた場合の比率は0.7%であった。
- 四半期末後、BBDCは11月23日期限の利率3.3%の無担保社債3億5,000万ドルを償還するため、4億ドルのCLOファイナンスのプライシングを実施した。
主要財務データ
| 指標 | 2026年第3四半期 | 比較・背景 |
|---|---|---|
| 1株当たり純資産価値(NAV) | 10.92ドル | 2026年6月30日時点は10.94ドル |
| 純投資利益(NII) | 2,720万ドル | 1株当たり0.26ドル(第2四半期は0.28ドル) |
| 四半期配当 | 1株当たり0.26ドル | 第3四半期の純投資利益(NII)で全額カバー |
| 未分配課税所得(スピルオーバー所得) | 1株当たり約0.80ドル | 会計と税務の差異により年末にかけて減少する見込み |
| 公正価値ベースのポートフォリオ | 約25億ドル | 当四半期中に約5,000万ドル増加 |
| 実行された投資額 | 1億9,600万ドル | 新規投資先企業20社を含む |
| 売却および回収 | 1億4,600万ドル | 当四半期の投資実行額を下回る水準 |
| ポートフォリオの加重平均利回り | 10.2% | 前期比横ばい |
| 加重平均インタレスト・カバレッジ・レシオ | 2.6倍 | 経営陣はカバレッジを健全と評価 |
| 公正価値ベースの元利金請求停止債権比率 | 1.1% | シエラ信用補完対象資産を除くと0.7% |
| 純レバレッジ | 1.24倍 | 1.18倍から上昇(目標レンジは0.9倍〜1.25倍) |
| 負債に占める無担保債務の割合 | 77% | CLOファイナンスを反映したプロフォルマベースで約53% |
事業および営業実績
当四半期の新規投資の加重平均スプレッドは541ベーシスポイントとなり、回収分のスプレッドである540ベーシスポイントと概ね一致した。四半期末以降、BBDCはさらに7,360万ドルの投資を実行しており、そのほぼ全額が第一順位担保付ローンで、加重平均利回りは9.1%となっている。
経営陣は、超大型案件よりも相対的なバリューが高い中堅企業(コア・ミドルマーケット)市場に引き続き注力する方針を示した。ポートフォリオは主にシニア担保付かつ変動金利の案件で構成されており、資産の93%が変動金利となっている。
マクロ経済の不確実性を背景に、バイアウトの成約率は過去最低水準近くにとどまった。経営陣によると、取引環境の減速によって回収も抑制されるため、既存の借入企業からの経常的収入が下支えされ、追加投資の機会も創出されているという。
リスク格付けの推移は緩やかであった。最も信用不安の高いカテゴリーである「4」および「5」に格付けされた投資は、前四半期の6%からポートフォリオの7%に増加した。BBDCの投資の約90%はベアリングスが主幹事または共同主幹事として組成したものであり、契約条件の変更や債務再編においてプラットフォームとしてより大きな影響力を行使できる体制にある。
経営陣の見通し
取締役会は、第4四半期配当を据え置きとなる1株当たり0.26ドルとすることを決議した。経営陣は、年末に向けて残高の減少が見込まれるものの、ポートフォリオ収益と1株当たり約0.80ドルのスピルオーバー所得によって配当水準は引き続き維持されていると述べた。
BBDCは、第4四半期中に純レバレッジが約1.15倍〜1.16倍へ低下すると見込んでいる。この低下は、債権回収および合弁事業(JV)への潜在的なポートフォリオ売却によってもたらされる見通しである。
経営陣の基本シナリオでは、第4四半期の投資スプレッドは第3四半期の水準近くで推移すると想定している。ただし、限られた件数のレバレッジド・バイアウト案件を巡る競争激化により、2026年後半から2027年初頭にかけてスプレッドが小幅に縮小する可能性があることも認めた。
同社はまた、2027年第1四半期を目処にセキュリティ・ホールディングスからの撤退を検討している。経営陣は、インカムを生み出さない同株式ポジションの売却代金をインカム創出資産へ再投資することで、借り換えコストの上昇を相殺できる可能性があると述べた。
リスクと注視すべきポイント
今回の新たなCLOの加重平均金利はSOFR+164ベーシスポイントであり、借り換え対象となる社債の固定金利3.3%を大幅に上回っている。経営陣は、変動金利ポートフォリオやセキュリティ・ホールディングスの売却資金の再投資によってコスト増を吸収できると見込んでいるものの、今後の信用問題が配当余力に影響を与える可能性があると指摘した。また同社は、配当維持のために純資産価値(NAV)を取り崩すのではなく、必要であれば減配を行う方針を示した。
現物利息(PIK)収入も増加した。経営陣は、この動きの大半がフロリダ州における保険料引き下げの影響を受けたノンスタンダード自動車保険会社、ポリシー・サービシズによるものだとした。BBDCは対応策を検討する間、借り手の流動性を維持するため、当四半期の利息の現物支払いを容認した。PIK収入全体の約60%は組成当初から設定されていたものであり、40%は信用問題を抱える借り手との契約変更に伴うものであった。
プライベート・エクイティの保有期間長期化や、いわゆる「ゾンビ・ファンド」の存在も依然として懸念材料である。経営陣は、投資回収の結果はスポンサーの利用可能資金、事業運営リソース、ポートフォリオ企業を支援する意欲に一段と左右されるようになっていると述べた。2028年および2029年に迫る債務満期の壁を前に、期限延長や借り換え、あるいはより積極的な債務再編が求められる可能性がある。
BBDCはまた、自社ポートフォリオがAIによる事業破壊に直接晒されているリスクは限定的であると説明した。経営陣は、BBDCの中堅企業向けコーポレート・クレジットという投資方針の範囲内において、ネオクラウド発行体、半導体資産担保ファイナンス、データセンター不動産といった特殊なAI関連戦略を追求する意図はないとしている。
アナリスト質疑応答の主なポイント
- 配当の持続可能性:経営陣はCLO取引に伴う借り換えコストの上昇を見込んでいるものの、変動金利資産のインカムやセキュリティ・ホールディングスの売却代金の再投資によって相殺可能とみている。信用の悪化が引き続き配当にとって最大の下振れリスクである。
- レバレッジ:魅力的な投資機会と回収見通しの明確さを背景に、BBDCは第3四半期中に目標レンジの上限近くで意図的に運用を行った。経営陣は年末までに約1.15倍〜1.16倍を目指している。
- PIK収入:当四半期の増加の主因はポリシー・サービシズであった。経営陣は借り手の市場を循環的と評価し、流動性維持のためPIKによる支払いを容認した。
- ECLIPSE投資:経営陣はECLIPSEを長期的かつ逆サイクル型の動産担保融資エクスポージャーと引き続き位置づけている。BBDCは現時点でポジションを拡大する計画はない。
- レンダーの主導権:ベアリングスはBBDCの投資の約90%で主幹事または共同主幹事を務めており、経営陣はこれにより契約変更、満期延長、および債権回収の結果に影響を及ぼす能力が高まると考えている。
決算説明会トランスクリプト全文
決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト
経営陣による説明
Operator
At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Barings BDC, Inc. conference call for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. [Operator Instructions] Today's call is being recorded, and a replay will be available approximately 2 hours after the conclusion of the call on the company's website under the Investor Relations section.
Please note that this call may contain forward-looking statements that include statements regarding the company's goals, beliefs, strategies, future operating. Although the company believes these statements are reasonable, actual results could differ materially from those projected in forward-looking statements. These statements are based on various underlying assumptions and are subject to numerous uncertainties and risks, including those disclosed under the sections titled Risk Factors and Forward-Looking Statements in the company's quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, and in other filings made with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Barings BDC undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements unless required by law.
I will now turn the call over to Tom McDonnell, Chief Executive Officer of Barings BDC.
Thomas McDonnell
Thanks, operator, and good morning, everyone. On the call today, I'm joined by Barings BDC's President and Co-Portfolio Manager; Matt Freund; and BBDC's Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer, Elizabeth Murray. I will begin with a brief overview of the quarter and then frame how we are viewing the market. Matt will follow with a more detailed discussion of the private credit environment, and Elizabeth will walk through our financial results.
Net asset value per share was $10.92 as of September 30, largely unchanged from $10.94 as of June 30. We remain active on the deployment front during the quarter. BBDC funded $196 million of investments, including 20 new portfolio companies and had $146 million of sales and repayments, resulting in net portfolio growth of approximately $50 million. The investment portfolio increased to approximately $2.5 billion at fair value, and the weighted average yield on debt and other income-producing securities was 10.2%, flat compared to the prior quarter. All told, the combination of a largely stable NAV and the strength of the underlying earnings profile of the portfolio produced a strong quarter.
During the quarter, we also continued to strengthen the balance sheet. Subsequent to quarter end, we addressed our November notes maturity ahead of schedule with a new CLO financing. Elizabeth will take you through the details, but I want to put it in context. Over the past several years, we have deliberately built the capital structure designed to hold up through a full cycle. A latter maturity profile access to multiple funding markets and revolver capacity to support our borrowers and pipeline. With this transaction behind us, our team can stay focused on investing and portfolio management.
Credit performance remains a key area of focus across the private credit market. For BBDC, nonaccruals increased modestly this quarter. But when excluding assets covered by the Sierra CSA, nonaccruals remain below 1% of the portfolio at fair value at 0.7%, and weighted average interest coverage remains healthy at 2.6x. We are actively managing each of these situations with a focus on maximizing recoveries.
One of the themes we have emphasized this year has been our expectation of greater manager dispersion in private credit. And we believe that dispersion is now clearly underway. For several years, abundant capital and benign credit backdrop allowed most managers to post similar results, masking meaningful differences in underwriting discipline. That is changing. As idiosyncratic credit issues surface and sponsors extend hold periods, differences in nonaccrual trends, NAV stability, dividend coverage and recovery outcomes are becoming more visible across the industry, and we expect that gap to widen as the cycle matures. Manager selection, underwriting, portfolio construction and workout experience matters.
In our views, the managers have performed from here will be distinguished by a few things. The quality of underwriting and documentation at origination, the depth of sponsor relationships when portfolio companies need additional support, disciplined diversification and position sizing and the experience and resources to work through stressed credits when they arise. These are not capabilities that can be built quickly in response to a turn in the cycle. Barings has invested through multiple credit cycles and the credit metrics I just described reflect that approach. We believe investors will increasingly differentiate between managers on these factors and that BBDC will benefit from that scrutiny.
With that overview, I will turn the call over to Matt to discuss the market backdrop and the BDC portfolio in more detail.
Matthew Freund
Thanks, Tom. After our first half of 2026 marked by a heightened scrutiny of private credit, investors are coming back to direct lending. The reasons are simple, and are the same ones that have drawn capital to the asset class for years, attractive income, diversification and defensive characteristics. Capital formation across the Barings platform was strong in the third quarter.
As BBDC shareholders know, we focus on the core of the middle market. We believe this segment is less competitive than the mega cap segment that has drawn so much attention during the past few years. Pricing in our core area of focus continue to offer compelling relative value compared to other credit strategies. New investments in the third quarter carried a weighted average spread of 541 basis points, in line with 540 basis points on repayments. That momentum has continued in the fourth quarter. And since quarter end, we have closed and funded $73.6 million of new investments, almost entirely first lien at a weighted average yield of 9.1%.
The scale of our existing portfolio and the breadth of our origination platform give us confidence that we can keep finding compelling risk-adjusted returns. The Barings Global Private Finance platform has deployed more capital year-to-date than it has at this point in 2025. Even so, buyout close rates are still near all-time lows as an uncertain macro backdrop keeps buyers cautious. Our pipeline is robust, but we expect the share of deals that close to stay low by historical standards. There is an upside to this dynamic. Slower deal activity also means lower repayments, which gives us a stable base of existing issuers. Our incumbent positions become a durable source of income and add-on opportunities.
Like many in our industry, we are paying close attention to private equity hold period and the rise of so-called zombie funds. In this environment, the quality of the sponsor matters more than ever. When an exit flips by 2 or 3 years, the outcome depends on whether the sponsor has capital, operating resources and willingness to keep supporting the company. It also depends on whether we have the kind of relationship that allows candid early conversations when plans change. Our portfolio is built around sponsors we have worked with through multiple cycles and that history is often what separates a constructive amendment from a contentious workout. In many instances, extending maturities to align with a sponsor's extended hold horizon may create an optimal outcome for all parties, but that is not always the case.
As we approach the maturity walls of 2028 and 2029, investors will be closely evaluating how lenders engage on these opportunities. Underlying all of this, our decisions at Barings start with capital preservation. Our portfolio continues to highlight why selectivity matters. Risk rating migration was modest this quarter. Investments rated 4 and 5, which is where we see the most stress, rose slightly to 7% of the portfolio from 6% last quarter. As Tom mentioned, weighted average interest coverage remained healthy at 2.6x. Nonaccruals ticked up modestly to 11 portfolio companies or 1.1% of the portfolio at fair value.
Excluding nonaccrual assets acquired in the Sierra transaction, which are covered by a credit support agreement, nonaccruals were 0.7% at fair value. We don't want to minimize the work these underperforming positions require. We are actively managing each of them with a focus on maximizing recoveries, preserving optionality and protecting shareholder value. AI remains a focus for our investors in every asset class. Early questions about direct lending centered on the stress and volatility AI could create for existing borrowers. As we said before, our internal analysis and discussions with industry experts show that BBDC's portfolio has very limited direct exposure to AI disruption. The longer-term effects on every industry are still unclear, but we are comfortable with the direct AI exposure and our current issuer base.
More recently, investors have asked whether we would pursue AI-related investments such as needle cloud issuers, ABS chip financing and data center real estate within the context of BBDC. To be clear, we do not believe that these strategies fit within BBDC's expected guidelines. BBDC exists to provide corporate credit exposure to middle market companies and the opportunity within that mandate is enormous. There are certainly attractive investments in the AI ecosystem, but investors should not look to BBDC for that risk profile.
To sum up, credit requires active management, and we remain focused on a small number of specific situations. Overall, the portfolio is diversified senior secured floating rate and positioned to generate attractive current income.
And with that, I will turn the call over to Elizabeth.
Elizabeth Murray
Thanks, Matt. As Tom mentioned, the third quarter was a steady one. And subsequent to quarter end, we took a significant step in our liability management strategy with the pricing of a $400 million CLO financing, which I will cover in some detail. I'll begin with our financial results and key balance sheet metrics for the third quarter.
Turning first to our results. NAV per share at September 30 was $10.92 and compared to $10.94 at June 30. The modest decline was driven by net realized losses of approximately $0.05, partially offset by net unrealized appreciation of approximately $0.02 per share while NII fully covered the dividend. Net investment income was $27.2 million or $0.26 per share compared to $0.28 last quarter. The decrease is primarily due to lower dividend income from certain equity positions that made elevated distributions in the second quarter and an increase in the income-based incentive fee.
NII of $0.26 per share covered our third quarter dividend of $0.26 per share, and year-to-date, NII has fully covered our dividend. We continue to maintain undistributed taxable deliver income of approximately $0.80 per share, and our Board declared a fourth quarter dividend of $0.26 per share, unchanged from the prior quarter. Looking ahead, we believe that the dividend remains well supported. Our predominantly floating rate portfolio benefits from the recent rise in base rates, which we expect to help offset the higher cost of refinancing or 3.3% notes.
Together with our spillover income, we believe we are well positioned to maintain this $0.26 quarterly dividend, and we'll continue to evaluate dividend levels as conditions evolve.
Moving to portfolio valuations and realized activity, net realized losses for the quarter were primarily associated with the exit of Varian and Biolam were largely offset by the reversal of previously reported unrealized depreciation. Net unrealized appreciation reflects gains in our foreign currency positions and hedges, which more than offset modest net depreciation on the portfolio, including markdowns on a small number of names.
Turning now to the CLO financing that Tom mentioned. As many investors are focused on our $350 million of 3.3% unsecured notes mature on November 23. On October 30, we priced a $400 million DLA financing, which we intend to use to fund the repayment of those notes at maturity. The CLO is expected to close mid-November and the floating rate notes carrying a weighted average interest rate of SOFR plus 164. Strategically, the transaction remains our largest near-term refinancing risk ahead of maturity as long-dated floating rig funding that is well matched to our 93% floating rate portfolio, diversifies our funding base and preserves revolver capacity for new investments and unfunded commitments. Because the 3.3% notes were issued at a very different rate environment, any refinancing will carry a higher cost. We believe the CLO is attractive relative to the alternatives available today.
Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with net leverage, which is defined as regulatory leverage net of unrestricted cash and net unsettled transactions of 1.24x and up from 1.18x at June 30, driven by net portfolio growth during the quarter as we funded $196 million of investments against $146 million for payments and sales. Leverage remains within our target range of 0.9x to 1.25x. We were comfortable operating toward the upper end of the range this quarter given the attractive investment opportunities we were seeing. And because we have visibility into a repayment pipeline, that we expected to be weighted toward year-end.
Looking ahead, we expect leverage to move back toward the middle of our target range by year-end driven by anticipated sales of portfolio investments to our joint venture with Dakas and expected repayments. Approximately 77% of our debt was unsecured at quarter end. That percentage will decline as we address our maturities to approximately 53% pro forma for the CLA. We believe that trade-off is the right one. And following the refinancing, our next maturity will not be until November 2027.
In closing, the third quarter delivered stable earnings in NAV with the pricing of our CLA, we have addressed our November maturity while further diversifying our funding sources. We believe our balance sheet is well positioned as we head into 2027.
And with that, I'll turn the call back to the operator.
Operator
[Operator Instructions] Our first question today is coming from Robert Dodd from Raymond James.
質疑応答
Robert Dodd
Congrats on the quarter, I mean, a very nice stable quarter. No surprises what BBDC investors want to see. A couple of questions. [indiscernible] really well, it's a quarter, but kind of topics you brought up. I think Matt said that sometimes it makes sense to extend the maturity on an outstanding loan to match up to the expected kind of exit for a sponsor, which makes a lot of sense, right? You don't want to extend beyond the sponsor's fund life necessarily or be sure. I mean how would you characterize the portfolio maturities today versus the expected sponsor fund life?
Because that also kind of ties in with 1 of your comments, Tom, the strength of the sponsor relationship and do they actually have the capital to support a business if it has issues. I mean it's all that together in the same kind of concept of where are you relative to the equity holder in the positions just like expected life in the portfolio. And that was a bit of a rampant question.
Matthew Freund
Yes. Robert, thanks for the question. I appreciate you dialing in this morning. And so I think that you're touching on a theme that is very top of mind for us as we evaluate any request to modify the duration of an existing position. And so maybe let me just offer a couple of statistics for you to reinforce how we're thinking about that. And so within the BBDC portfolio, approximately 8% of the underlying investments have a stated maturity. The largest 1 is actually an affiliate in security holdings. And so obviously, we have a lot of control over that structure itself. And then as we kick through the other hands full, we have reasons to believe that either sale processes are underway and/or the sponsors are looking on refinancing options where we've declined to provide incremental flexibility.
And so it's something that is incredibly important for us as we think about managing the duration of the book as well as candidly working towards a credit risk profile that we think is appropriate for our underlying LPs. And as part of that evaluation, the underlying fund life, the sponsor characteristics, where the sponsors are in their fundraising capacities, all inform the degree of receptivity that we have whenever these kinds of requests are making their way through our respective committees.
Robert Dodd
Got it. That's very helpful. Another 1 also kind of related to a comment made rather than the actual quarter. On the diversification side, obviously, the BBDC portfolio is not generally the control investor. That doesn't mean bearing system though, right? So could you give us any color? I mean, obviously, as you point out, credit trends are kind of, I think, going to be the key diversifier over the next several years and being in control of a process or at very least, being at the top table on a process can have a significant influence on an outcome there. So what proportion of the portfolio today, and I probably knew this 2 years ago, but what proportion of the portfolio today, are you bearing not necessarily BBDC, the control investor or control lender in a position. .
Thomas McDonnell
Yes, Robert. Yes, roughly 90% of our investments were either the lead or co-lead. And you're exactly right, being in that position, it does allow us to, in effect, somewhat control the outcome and help us inform decisions as to whether or not we want to extend the runway for the sponsor, et cetera. So I think, again, that's extremely important as we work through some of these situations and certainly being in that position gives us, like I said, that element of control, which we think is really important as we move forward.
Robert Dodd
Got it. I appreciate it. And again, congrats on the quarter. .
Thomas McDonnell
Thank you.
Operator
Your next question today is coming from Finian O'Shea from Wells Fargo.
Finian O'Shea
I wanted to ask about ECLIPSE. It's a several -- 5 to 10 or so years, I think, since you bought it from another private equity firm just seeing where that sort of is and it's sort of half-life under your stewardship. Is it something you continue to seek to grow over the long term or maybe move out of?
Thomas McDonnell
Yes. Fin, great question. I appreciate you dialing in this morning. So ECLIPSE, the reason that ECLIPSE exists within this portfolio is to provide a combination of compelling kind of risk-adjusted return to the underlying shareholders, but also to provide a little bit of countercyclical exposure in the context of cash flow lending. It's longer in our belief that asset-based strategies are likely to outperform if and when broad-based cash flow strategy experienced a little bit of a wobble. And we have seen that in origination pipelines of the respective business units over the course of the past couple of years, where whenever we start to experience periods of economic volatility, Eclipse has really attractive opportunities for deployment. And perhaps interestingly, we're on the precipice of 1 of those periods now based on recent conversations we've had with the management team there.
In terms of our expected hold horizon, it's an asset that we have long patched as being willing and able to hold into perpetuity. I do think that over periods of time, different shareholder expectations they evolve and different return expectations on a forward basis may change. But as we sit here today, in October of 2026, we don't have any change of our plans with respect to the ownership structure as it exists.
Matthew Freund
Yes. Fin, I would just say we don't expect our investment there to increase in size. So it's going to be a sizable position here. But again, it's been 1 that's been a great performer for us, but not 1 we intend on increasing exposure and BBDC with.
Finian O'Shea
Okay. Great. Can you guys update us on your spillover?
Elizabeth Murray
Yes, Fin, the spillover this quarter is about $0.80. And I anticipate that will likely decrease as we're heading at year-end. But we feel comfortable with where it is. And it's something that we monitor, but we feel comfortable with where it is and comfortable with where our dividend is at this point.
Finian O'Shea
How will it decrease? .
Elizabeth Murray
There's just some various book-to-tax differences relative to our 2025 return that will flow through in the fourth quarter.
Operator
[Operator Instructions] Our next question is coming from Jason Stewart from Compass Point.
Jason Stewart
In terms of leverage and portfolio repayment activity, I guess just wondered if you could clarify, I get about $0.01 of fee income from repayments in the third quarter, that seems right to you. If you could just clarify that. And then is it your expectation that repayment activity is going to stay somewhat elevated in the fourth quarter? Or do you see opportunities for back leverage to bring leverage down? .
Thomas McDonnell
Yes. No. So I think, yes, we do expect repayments in the fourth quarter to be basically flat at this point. So we did run leverage a little higher in the third quarter, as you can see there. that was done on purpose with visibility towards a flattish repayment. We also, as you know, have the ability to sell loans down to [indiscernible] and we did not do that in the third quarter. we anticipate likely doing that in the fourth quarter. So as we've stated our target leverage, we look to bring that down probably to the 1.15, 1.16x as we move through the fourth quarter, something very similar that we did last year at this time as well.
Jason Stewart
Okay. And then just looking at spreads on new investments versus repayments that were basically flat this quarter. Any thoughts on where that's trending into the end of the year?
Thomas McDonnell
Yes. I think that if we look at the trended spreads over the course of the past 6 quarters, there was certainly an opportunity for more spread in Q1 and Q2 in light of broader private credit volatility. And I would say that, that has started to normalize in Q3. Our base case at this point is going to be that spread levels look very similar in Q4 as they did this particular quarter, but I would acknowledge that it wouldn't surprise me if a limited amount of LBO activity increases a bit of competition, and we could see a little bit of a narrowing of spreads as we move into the end of the year and the beginning of 2027. But very few data points to evidence that at this stage.
Operator
Next question is coming from Derek Hewett from Bank of America.
Derek Hewett
So PIC increased about to 10% of revenue from a little over 7% last quarter. Could you provide any additional color on that movement? And then just overall, what percentage of PIC revenue was built into the original underwrite versus amendment PIC?
Matthew Freund
Yes, sure. Thanks, Derek. Yes. And so really that for us really results from 1 investment called Policy Services. It's a nonstandard auto insurer investment that we have. And really, the market for that is primarily based in Florida. So just seeing a real softening in the rates that they charge on their insurance policies. It's really had an impact on the company's revenue and EBITDA line items. And we made the decision to allow them to pick interest for that third quarter in an effort to preserve liquidity and evaluate some of our options there. So we thought that was the prudent thing to do.
I will note that company in that market has a 40-year history of having a balance of volatility, if you will. And so quite a cyclical industry, and we do believe, ultimately, we feel like we bottomed out in terms of rate and win rate and buying rate there, and we do believe ultimately that, that will come back. But we thought it would be the prudent thing to do to have that go on pick for the quarter as we evaluate our options.
And then in terms of your question on, I think you're probably referring to whether good PIC, bad PIC overall the portfolio. Roughly 60% of the PIC in that line item is that which was structured at origination. And I would say 40% of that line item will be things we've had to do in terms of working with some of our investments that had credit issues. And so called out a kind of a 60-40 split between good and bad PIC.
Derek Hewett
Okay. And in terms of my follow-up, could you provide additional color on the dividend sustainability, just given that you're going to have some headwinds from a funding cost perspective as those low-cost bonds get refinanced? And then also in your analysis, are you assuming any additional movements in SOFR?
Elizabeth Murray
Yes. So Derek, it's a great question. It's something that we're spending a lot of time on currently with our modeling. And yes, good point top of mind for me is the fact that our funding costs do increase because we're moving from a 3.3% fixed to closer to SOFR to $1.64. The other thing that we're taking into account that both Matt and Tom have discussed in the past is the fact that we're in the process and looking to exit security holdings likely in the first quarter of 2027. And that currently is a big equity position that really doesn't generate any income producing it's not really income producing.
And so as that we're able to turn around and invest that into income-producing assets, that should help offset the higher funding cost. At the same time, if there are credit issues of any kind in the future, that could impact the dividend this point, we don't anticipate that. But if there are any -- and to your point, we do believe the uplift and where rates are going, could have a positive impact. I say all this that if for whatever reason there are credit issues, we will not we will decrease the dividend if we have to. We will not eat into NAV just to preserve a dividend.
Operator
We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Tom for any further closing comments.
Thomas McDonnell
All right. Thank you, operator, and thank you to everyone for joining us today. This was a quarter in which we earned our dividend, kept NAV stable addressed our largest debt maturity ahead of schedule. We believe the dispersion emerging across private credit will increasingly reward disciplined managers, and we intend to be 1 of them. We look forward to updating you next quarter.
Operator
Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.
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