Solaris (SEI) 2026年第3四半期決算説明会：900MW契約でガイダンス引き上げ

要点

• ソラリスは2026年第3四半期の売上高が前四半期比55%増の3億4,100万ドルと過去最高を記録したと発表した。調整後EBITDAも同26%増の1億3,600万ドルとなり、過去最高を更新した。
• 同社は2026年第4四半期の調整後EBITDAガイダンスを1億6,500万〜1億8,500万ドル、2027年第1四半期のガイダンスを2億2,000万〜2億6,000万ドルへとそれぞれ引き上げた。
• ソラリスは既存の投資適格顧客に対し、約900メガワットの発電設備、周辺補機（BOP）設備、ならびに運用・保守（O&M）サービスを提供する15年間の契約を締結した。通電開始は2027年上半期を予定しており、2028年半ばにかけて順次拡大する見通しである。
• 契約済みバックログの売上規模は160億ドルを超え、加重平均期間が約11年となる3.2ギガワットの長期電力契約に支えられている。
• 経営陣は、契約済み設備と追加の300メガワットの設備容量が稼働すれば、年間ランレート換算の調整後EBITDAが16億ドルを超えると見込んでいる。また、2027年の調整後EBITDAは2026年比で2倍以上に拡大すると予想している。
• ソラリスは10月に約15億ドルの流動性を追加確保し、発表済みの契約プロジェクトおよび設備容量の追加に必要な資金は全額調達済みであると述べた。

主要財務データ

事業および営業実績

パワーソリューション部門では、第3四半期中に収益を生み出した設備容量が平均820メガワットとなった。自社保有容量は前四半期比で20%増加したものの、一時的な外部発電設備の計画通りの終了に伴い、総稼働容量は同14%減少した。自社保有容量の増加と、買収による寄与を含むサービス売上高の拡大が同部門の成長を牽引した。

ソラリスは四半期末に2件の長期プロジェクトの初期設備を通電させた。3件目のプロジェクトの建設も予定通り進捗しており、2027年第1四半期に収益計上が開始される見通しである。開発中の3ギガワット超のプロジェクト全体で、経営陣はプロジェクト単位で10%台後半の投下資本利益率を見込んでいる。

今回の900メガワットの新規契約は、ソラリスにとって過去最大かつ最長の電力契約となる。初期契約期間は15年で、さらに15年間の延長オプションが付帯している。この設備は特定の場所に縛られず、複数の地域に配備することが可能である。

過去12か月間で、ソラリスは前回の発表以降に確保した200メガワットを含め、新たに1ギガワットの発電容量を取得した。同社は約300メガワットの未割当容量を保有しており、2029年に納入されて追加の長期契約が結ばれる見込みである。

OmegaおよびGESAの買収により、ソラリスは造成工事、エンジニアリング、設置、試運転、タービン改修、ならびに運用・保守（O&M）能力を拡充した。ソラリスは現在、世界全体で自社保有容量1ギガワットに加え、外部保有の3ギガワットの電力を運用している。四半期末時点の従業員数は3,000人近くに達した。

ロジスティクスソリューション部門の完全稼働システム数は平均104基となった。経営陣は第4四半期に前四半期比で小幅な増加を見込んでおり、その勢いは2027年初頭まで継続する見通しである。同部門から得られるキャッシュフローは、パワーソリューション部門の拡張資金に寄与している。

経営陣によるガイダンス

2029年までの予想資本投資額は約6億ドル増加した。この増加は、直近の契約で必要とされる追加の発電容量200メガワットおよび周辺補機（BOP）設備を反映したものである。

ソラリスは10月にシニア無担保社債で12億5,000万ドルを調達し、2億ドルの銀行融資コミットメントを追加した。リボルビング信用枠の総額は8億5,000万ドルに達し、決算説明会の時点では未実行であった。経営陣は、これらの資金源により、さらなる成長への柔軟性を維持しつつ、発表済みの契約プロジェクトや設備増強の資金が完全に賄われると述べた。

取締役会は1株当たり0.12ドルの第4四半期配当を承認した。これが支払われれば、ソラリスにとって33四半期連続の配当となる。

リスクおよび注視事項

• 発電設備および周辺補機（BOP）設備は依然として供給不足であり、世界的な導入基盤の拡大に伴い、熟練労働者や保守対応能力が制約要因となる可能性がある。
• 送電網への系統連系遅延、電力料金負担者保護の動き、許認可の不確実性、データセンター開発に対する政治的抵抗などが、プロジェクトの立地やスケジュールに影響を与える可能性がある。
• 経営陣は、ソラリスが現在テキサス州で運用している設備容量はわずかであると述べ、同社の設備や契約は一般に地理的な再配置が可能であることを強調した。ただし、事業遂行には、顧客が適切な用地を特定し、必要な許認可を取得できるかどうかに依然として左右される。
• サービスおよび建設事業の実績には波が生じる可能性がある。経営陣は、長期契約の電力プロジェクトと比べてサービス事業の先行き見通し（ビジビリティ）が低く、2027年第1四半期以降の具体的なサービス事業ガイダンスを提示する段階にはないとした。
• 第3四半期の設備投資支出は支払時期の関係からガイダンスを下回り、想定されていたキャッシュアウトフローの一部が第4四半期にずれ込んだ。

アナリスト質疑応答の要点

契約上の保護条項と顧客集中度：ソラリスの主要な4件の電力契約は、加重平均期間が約11年となっている。経営陣によると、都合解約条項では通常、割引前将来売上高の50%に相当する支払いが義務付けられており、顧客側には設備が残らない。契約済みプロジェクトが全面稼働した後は、特定の単一顧客が予想調整後EBITDAに占める割合は35%以下にとどまると同社は試算している。

許認可と地理的柔軟性：経営陣は、新規契約および発電設備の大部分は特定の立地に縛られないと説明した。顧客の事業展開地域が広範であるため、特定の州で許認可の制限やモラトリアム（一時停止）によりプロジェクトが遅延した場合でも、設備を他地域へ振り向けることが可能である。

サービス事業の成長：経営陣はOmegaおよびGESAの買収について、プロジェクト遂行リスクの低減とサードパーティ向け事業成長プラットフォームの双方を担うものと位置付けている。建設売上高は比較的波がある見込みだが、近年設置された発電設備が大規模オーバーホールの周期を迎えるにつれ、保守およびタービンサービスには長期的な成長余地があると考えられる。

将来の発電容量：ソラリスは引き続き、新品および改修済み設備の評価を進めている。経営陣は、顧客が数年先の発電要件を計画するに伴い、今後の設備調達がより計画的かつ顧客と綿密に連携したものになると見込んでいる。

系統連系：経営陣は、個別設計された需要家側（ビハインド・ザ・メーター）の送電網が、開閉装置や変圧器を追加することで広域送電網と双方向に接続できるようになる可能性があると述べた。これにより、施設は安価な系統電力が利用可能な際にはそれを受電し、需要が高まる時間帯には電力を供給することが可能になるという。

決算説明会 文字起こし全文

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決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Solaris Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded.

I would now like to turn the conference over to Yvonne Fletcher, Senior Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Yvonne Fletcher

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to the Solaris third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. Joining us today are our Chairman and Co-CEO, Bill Zartler; our Co-CEO and Director, Amanda Brock; our President, Kyle Ramachandran; and our CFO, Steve Tompsett.

Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that some of the statements we will make today are forward-looking and reflect a number of known and unknown risks. Please refer to our press release issued yesterday, along with other recent public filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission that outline those risks.

I would like to point out that our earnings release and today's conference call will contain discussion of non-GAAP financial measures. The presentation of this additional information should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for results prepared in accordance with GAAP. Reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures are available in our earnings release, which is posted in the News section on our website. Additionally, we encourage you to refer to our earnings supplement slide deck, which was published last night on the Investor Relations section of our website under Events & Presentations. I'll now turn the call over to our Chairman and Co-CEO, Bill Zartler.

William Zartler

Thank you, Yvonne, and thank you, everyone, for joining us this morning.

Solaris' transformation into a comprehensive power infrastructure solutions provider is driving record results in the near term and positioning Solaris for significant long-term value creation.

We are creating value for all stakeholders. The behind-the-meter power solutions we provide benefits our customers, the communities in which they operate and state and national interest. By serving large new loads without adding demand to the grid, we keep electricity rates lower for households and businesses and support the reliability for the broader grid. For our shareholders, that value is already showing up in our results.

Our quarterly adjusted EBITDA has more than doubled over the last year, and we expect 2027 to be more than double 2026 with further growth beyond that. We are executing strategically, commercially, operationally and financially, and that performance is reflected in our results and our outlook.

Last week, we signed our largest and longest power contract to date, a 15-year 900-megawatt contract with a leading industrial and technology investment-grade customer, which we will discuss later in the call.

Our near-term execution is driving this quarter's results, and we are again raising both near-term and longer-term guidance.

Our significant progress across multiple aspects of our business, combined with our track record of operational reliability continues to support our ability to provide value to our customers. Our power services capabilities now span site preparation, power engineering, installation and commissioning and operation and maintenance. This allows our diverse set of customers to contract for any combination of the services we deliver for full turnkey solutions to select services. Our customers also have large geographic footprints, giving them the flexibility to develop projects and move equipment to the most favorable locations and our power solutions can be deployed wherever they need them.

Having these capabilities in-house also helps us navigate potential industry bottlenecks and streamline project execution to meet our customers' time to power goals while also improving quality of service and driving efficiencies. For example, through the acquisition of GESA and targeted recruiting, we've added talent with decades of experience in sourcing, installation and operations and maintenance of various types of power generation assets. This helps us confidently manage and optimize the entire power stack, which can include multiple forms of generation to drive the best outcomes for our customers.

Speed to power and high reliability remain key drivers of the development of our bespoke power grids. As the market matures and grows, we believe the power market evolution will focus on continued operational efficiencies for these grids. Solaris will drive the application of technologies and equipment that will further improve efficiency and utilization, which positions our assets and services for the long-term.

Solaris has successfully delivered power for super intelligence loads for over 2 years for our power customers. Our bespoke grid solutions are designed to work as stand-alone solutions or as complements to the larger power grid and can be engineered for our customer-specific needs. We have supported and can continue to support a wide range of load profiles, including today's challenging super intelligence loads. We've integrated our power assets to complement the larger power grid and believe we will be positioned to provide future grid resiliency and overall efficiency benefits.

Our services businesses also extend our reach beyond our own generation capacity. We now offer a wide range of services and product offerings to third parties. Today, in addition to the 1 gigawatt of owned capacity we currently operate, we operate an additional 3 gigawatts of third-party owned power globally. The customers for our services and equipment also extend far beyond technology companies to now include a broad range of utility, IPP, OEM, government and industrial customers supporting additional long-term growth. This model has global reach and allows us to broaden our customer mix and access geographically diverse end markets.

Our expanded capabilities have supported another step change for Solaris to generate attractive returns. We continue to see robust power demand and opportunities to deploy generation and balance of plant solutions and our growing services business adds a capital-light opportunity to participate in global power generation growth. As we look forward at opportunities to continue to expand our capabilities, we are encouraged by potential organic and inorganic possibilities.

With that, I'll turn it over to Amanda to discuss our commercial progress.

Amanda Brock

Thank you, Bill, and good morning, everyone.

We are pleased to highlight that last week, we entered into a new agreement with one of our existing customers, a leading investment-grade diversified industrial and technology company to provide them approximately 900 megawatts of power generation, associated balance of plant equipment and operations and maintenance services. Our balance of plant scope includes emissions control and distribution equipment. The agreement has an initial 15-year term with an option to extend for an additional 15 years, making it the longest tenor contract we have signed to date. Equipment under this contract is not site-specific and can be deployed to various geographic locations.

This follow-on agreement reflects the strength of our contracting strategy, high-quality counterparties, longer tenor, numerous locations and broad scope. We have a strong customer record of performance and continue to earn our customers' trust by providing the reliable power services they need and value.

During the quarter, we also signed multiple new services contracts with new and existing customers, including a 7-year operations and maintenance agreement and several site preparation and turbine refurbishment agreements through our new teams acquired with Omega and GESA.

Demand for reliable power remains high, with generation and balance of plant equipment continuing to be in short supply. Speed to compute continues to be an economic imperative for our customers with a significant emphasis on prioritizing nearer-term generation capacity. The quantum of compute the industry is looking for over time continues to outpace the availability of traditional infrastructure. Interconnection delays continue, ratepayer protection initiatives have gained momentum and the regulatory and political environment for data centers accessing grid power is challenging. All of these factors are tailwinds for the growth of flexible behind-the-meter bespoke grid power solutions like those we offer.

Solaris has a number of advantages we want to highlight. We have high-quality customers. All of our long-term customers have investment-grade credit ratings and broad geographic footprints, giving them the flexibility to direct equipment and project development towards the most favorable locations. Our customer base is also increasingly diverse. As we look forward to when our currently contracted equipment and projects are fully operational, we estimate no one customer makes up more than 35% of our adjusted EBITDA expectations. This combination of customer quality and diversity strengthens the durability of our cash flows.

Our most recent contract is 15 years now brings our weighted average contract tenor to approximately 11 years. The longer tenure and the quality of the counterparties provides assurance and visibility into long-term cash flows and returns on capital.

Our contractual scope also continues to grow. The bespoke nature of our grids and our ability to provide power to various locations for the long-term puts us in a position to deliver power generation, balance of plant, energy storage, fuel and fuel infrastructure and operations and maintenance. And each added service increases our investment and return opportunity. As our customers' needs grow and the planning horizon extends, there will be an added focus on efficiency, interconnectivity and potentially other sources of generation capacity, and we will have the ability to evolve our current and future grids to fit their needs.

This is an exciting time for Solaris as we grow and transform our energy infrastructure business and continue to prove our capabilities as a leader in delivering power solutions. Importantly, we remain in active discussions with our existing and new customers to continue to expand our services, operations and turnkey Power Solutions businesses.

With that, I'll turn it over to Kyle.

Kyle Ramachandran

Thank you, and good morning, everyone.

Our Power Solutions operations and project development teams delivered a strong quarter. We increased deployment of our own power, and we integrated 2 acquisitions that expand our capabilities and earnings.

Towards the end of the quarter, we energized an initial portion of 2 of our long-term projects. Both will contribute meaningfully to our growth over the coming quarters. At a third project, site construction remains on track, and we continue to expect to begin earning revenue on this project in the first quarter of 2027. Our recently signed 15-year contract is expected to begin energizing in the first half of 2027 and ramp through mid-2028. Across these 3-plus gigawatts of currently underway projects, we expect to generate high teens project level returns on capital.

Executing at this pace requires solving the bottlenecks facing our industry and the services capabilities Bill described is central to how we do that. One of the bottlenecks impacting our industry has been the availability of power generation capacity. Over the last 12 months, we have acquired an incremental 1 gigawatt of generation capacity with attractive delivery time lines, enabled by a combination of our deep industry relationships and global reach. This includes another 200 megawatts we have procured since our last update, which we were able to allocate under the new contract we announced last week and will start generating revenue in 2027. We currently have approximately 300 megawatts of unallocated capacity that is expected to be delivered and working under additional long-term contracts in 2029, and we have line of sight to potential further capacity additions.

Human capital is another key limited resource. The acquisitions of Omega and GESA have helped us address this challenge. As we incorporated skill sets from our acquisitions and organically continued hiring and training to support our rapid growth, our headcount reached nearly 3,000 exiting the quarter. We are proactively working with trade schools, universities and trade organizations to ensure we are continually investing in growing talent.

Over time, we expect maintenance to become a potential bottleneck as well as global power generation capacity expands. Through the acquisition of GESA, we are both derisking and we are preparing Solaris for third-party opportunities to earn revenue as the global generation installed base grows.

Our services acquisitions are performing better than anticipated, and we continue to see opportunities for additional value-add M&A. Our pipeline consists of opportunities that would help us further address the bottlenecks we have discussed or enable us to enhance efficiencies for our customers.

Outside of Power Solutions, our Logistics Solutions segment also continued to perform extremely well in the third quarter, and we expect a small increase in the fourth quarter with momentum continuing in early 2027. The business continues to generate reliable cash flow, and that cash flow helps fund growth in our power business.

As we look forward to a strong finish to the year, we are proud of our team and the pace of our progress. We are executing on 4 major power contracts with investment-grade customers. We closed 2 acquisitions that expand our capabilities and continue to build a pipeline of value-add M&A. Meanwhile, our logistics business continues to generate reliable cash flow that helps fund this growth. We are well positioned to build on this momentum.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Steve.

Stephan Tompsett

Thank you, and good morning, everyone.

Our third quarter delivered record revenue of $341 million, up 55% sequentially from the second quarter. Record adjusted EBITDA of $136 million was up 26% sequentially, reflecting strong execution and commercial success across all business lines.

Adjusted EBITDA attributable to Solaris, excluding the EBITDA impact attributable to the noncontrolling interest in our Stateline joint venture was $138 million. Net income was $35 million and adjusted pro forma net income, excluding the impact of the non-owned portion of the Stateline JV was $43 million or $0.45 per fully diluted share.

In Power Solutions, we averaged 820 megawatts of capacity earning revenue during the quarter. While our own capacity was up 20% sequentially, the total was down 14% from the second quarter due to the planned release of temporary third-party generation. Power Solutions segment revenue of $284 million was up 79% sequentially and segment adjusted EBITDA of $127 million increased 32%, driven by an increase in owned capacity and increased service revenue organically and through acquisitions.

In Logistics, we averaged 104 fully utilized systems. Segment revenue of $57 million was down primarily due to lower last mile transportation activity. Segment adjusted EBITDA of $24 million was in line with expectations in the prior quarter.

Looking ahead, we are again raising our outlook, increasing fourth quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $165 million to $185 million, up from the prior range of $145 million to $180 million. We are also increasing our first quarter 2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $220 million to $260 million, up from $200 million to $240 million, reflecting our visibility into our earnings trajectory.

Our long-term visibility has also improved. Contracted backlog now stands at over $16 billion of revenue with a weighted average term of 11 years. That is underpinned by 3.2 gigawatts of long-term power contracts. Together with the 300 megawatts of additional capacity, this gives us strong long-term earnings visibility of over $1.6 billion of annual run rate adjusted EBITDA once all equipment is deployed under contract. Our expectations of future earnings continue to grow as our contracts expand, we will continue to find additional opportunities.

Turning to CapEx. Investments during the quarter totaled approximately $547 million, which was below our guidance due to timing of payments, which are now expected in the fourth quarter. Overall project costs remain in line with prior guidance, but total expected capital through 2029 has increased approximately $600 million to reflect the purchase of the additional 200 megawatts recently added as well as balance of plant required to support recent contracts.

To fund our ongoing growth, we added nearly $1.5 billion of additional liquidity to the balance sheet in October through a $1.25 billion senior unsecured notes offering and $200 million of additional bank commitments, which brought total revolver capacity to $850 million. The upsized revolver is currently undrawn. With this incremental capital, we are fully funded to deliver our contracted projects as well as the recently added capacity additions while retaining flexibility to grow opportunistically.

We continue to pair growth with capital returns. Our Board approved a fourth quarter dividend of $0.12 per share. Once paid, it will represent our 33rd consecutive quarterly dividend.

Now before wrapping up, I'd like to share a leadership update. Our Chief Accounting Officer, Chris Wirtz, will soon transition to a new role as Vice President, Special Projects. In this new role, Solaris will continue to benefit from Chris' knowledge and experience while allowing him greater personal flexibility. On behalf of everyone at Solaris, I want to thank Chris for all he has done. We are pleased that he will continue to be a valuable member of our accounting team.

Joining us later this month as the new Chief Accounting Officer will be Jake Gobar, who brings more than 20 years of accounting and business expertise to the team. We look forward to welcoming Jake.

Looking ahead, our focus is on contract execution, continued growth of the business and maximizing returns on capital. Over the coming quarters, our long-term projects will continue to ramp and our services business will continue to grow. This underpins our raised guidance and our path to approximately $1.6 billion of run rate adjusted EBITDA.

And with that, we'd be happy to take your questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley.

質疑応答

Alexandre Zimmermann

This is Alex Zimmermann on for Dave. Starting with Contract D announced last week, could you share more details on what the competitive process looked like? Were there several customers competing for that capacity? And if yes, what made you choose that proposal over the other ones?

Amanda Brock

[Audio Gap] with uptime and reliability. So this was more a factor.

Operator

I'm sorry to interrupt. We could not hear you. Could you please go ahead -- come again?

Amanda Brock

Can I try again? We're having maybe a problem with microphone. Can you hear me now?

Operator

Yes. Yes.

Amanda Brock

Okay. Alex, I sounded very eloquent, so I'll try again. This was not really a competitive process. We were contracting with a customer that we have worked with before who know our capabilities and how we have performed. So this is just really -- we decided that this was the best opportunity for us, geographically diverse, the use of the equipment, the returns. So that is how we approach this project.

Kyle Ramachandran

But with respect to the market, there are certainly lots of competitions with respect to the actual capacity. And so as we alluded to in the prepared remarks, in the quarter, we were able to go out and opportunistically pick up some more capacity. We are evaluating additional opportunities as well. But I think the amount of demand growth with respect to the actual application and the end use that our customers are seeing is growing at a tremendous rate. And infrastructure continues to be behind from a development standpoint. So we've got obviously an incredible track record operating multiple large-scale power clusters for large-scale compute. And so that's recognized by multiple of the large consumers of this compute. So that backdrop is leading to lots of customers being interested in our capacity. So yes, it was competitive from that perspective, and we are continuing to work with those same customers and looking for creative ways to solve their power problems and challenges as well.

Alexandre Zimmermann

Got it. Understood. And then moving to balance sheet. You guys raised $1.25 billion last month, part of that to fund the M&A, the capacity increase announced yesterday and also the BOP CapEx for Contract D. But after you account for those uses, how much more dry powder would you still have available to fund further capacity expansions?

Stephan Tompsett

So as we look at the balance sheet going forward, as we said in the prepared remarks, we are fully funded for everything that we've announced. And with that, you're going to continue to see a strengthening credit profile as well. So the balance sheet is in great shape.

The revolving credit facility that we increased, we expect that to be largely undrawn. So that's going to be a significant source of liquidity for anything opportunistic. Then as you've seen in the company over the last several years, we've accessed capital markets in a variety of ways. So I think depending on the opportunity that presents itself, we think that we've got fairly good access to a number of markets, a number of ways to structure future transactions either on balance sheet with partners or through joint ventures and again, look at what we've done in the past.

Operator

The next question comes from David Anderson with Barclays.

John Anderson

So yesterday, obviously, some pretty seismic political shifts yesterday, particularly down in Texas. Market didn't seem to discern one company from another, obviously, very concerned about permitting and things being delayed. Can you talk specifically to Solaris and kind of your contracts and what you have in hand and the risk or lack of risk about things moving to the right? I think there's a lot of question about what's permitted, what's not, how that impacts you, your take-or-pay structure. Just Solaris kind of got hit yesterday, a lot of questions about why. It didn't seem to make a lot of sense. Can you please address the contract situation as it relates to that?

William Zartler

Well, yes, thanks, David. That's a very topical question. And we -- as we talked about in our prepared remarks, we really have been hitting on all cylinders with respect to the business, except maybe educating certain shareholders on what our business is and what it isn't. And so I think the key fundamental nature of our contractual setup allows us to move power from location to location. And so our exposure is our customers' exposure about where they want the power. The manufacturing of chips and the need for the customer demand right now for AI is not slowing down, and they will need to be powered or things are going to go black.

And so I think as we look at the flexibility that we have built in for our customers in our contracts allows them to move power around. It allows us to build it. Each one of our large customers has obviously giant balance sheets and operate multiple sets of assets providing data center around the country.

And as of right now, we have very little power working in Texas and have planned small, but most of our power is outside of Texas. I think the anticipation was some of it might have gone to Texas over a period of time, and it still might go to Texas as this all unfolds. And I think the nature of the political rebuke of data centers and how that's gotten washed in the rug is trying to do the right thing for the communities and do the right thing for the public.

And the demand for AI is not going away. And the location and choice of location will be where it makes sense to put these kind of complexes. And I think there's been a broad brush look at what it is and not really digging into the details. Our business is contractual. It's very solid as we look at maybe Page 5 of the investor deck. The range of movement is that very last bar on the right, which is on top of everything else, is either going to be half that size or 5x that size by the time we get there. And so I think this team is capable of navigating our way through the challenges that the public clearly thinks are important and ensuring that the public gets the AI that they want and need at the same time, do it in a way that's very community positive.

Kyle Ramachandran

Yes. With respect to education, I think there's certainly on our business model, but it's also the impact of this kind of scaled infrastructure in these communities. Working in smaller communities that haven't seen material investments of any kind for many decades, is having tremendously positive impacts with respect to increasing local tax revenues and what that means for infrastructure build-out for schools, for teachers. We've seen it done well in many areas, and we think that's going to be the model that gets replicated. The jobs that are being created, we talked about the growth in our employee headcount.

There's tremendous positive pieces to this infrastructure build-out that has been underemphasized. And we think we're part of that education and that solution. And so we'll continue to support that narrative going forward from here.

And then finally, when we look at our infrastructure, it will ultimately represent an option to add megawatts onto the grid, which will be very supportive to ultimately lowering power prices as more supply is made available.

John Anderson

My follow-up question is on the services component of your business. It just continues to surprise this quarter, once again, had a big step-up as we go forward, and obviously, that was also part of your higher guide for early next year.

Can you talk about 2 components of that service I'm curious about. A, how much of that business is third-party related? Was that kind of the -- was that the reason for the step-up this past quarter? How much of that will be third-party going forward?

And secondarily, what's the recurring nature of this business? Like how much of that is sort of, say, connected to the megawatts that you're powering? I'm just curious about those 2 components as service becomes a bigger and bigger part of the mix in the next few years?

William Zartler

Yes. I'll let them address the exact percentages of what's internal versus external. But in general, the construction side of this is going to be a little lumpy, and we know that. That's why we value that business the way we did. It's -- some of it's internal, which we don't see in earnings that actually gets collapsed and capitalized into some of our projects. So -- there's a little bit of that.

That will move around a bit. And our expectations for that business going forward or maybe there's a little bit of a bulge in the system as our capital comes up, but we're -- we believe that the maintenance side and the turbine equipment side, that has a long tailwind in it. And I think when we look at the amount of equipment that's been ordered and the nature of the businesses that have ordered it, they're not geared up at this point to take care of all of this stuff.

And so all of this rotating equipment and all the generation capacity that's out there is going to need care and maintenance over a period of time. And that's a significant dollar amount for the long-term servicing and maintaining of that. And so we see that as a pretty long tailwind. And frankly, because so much equipment has been put to work over the last year or 2, we're going to see that really accelerate for 3 to 5 years from now when that stuff comes due for some of its major overhauls.

I don't know if you have the exact percentages or what's internal and external, but it's.

Operator

The next question comes from Michael Sullivan with Wolfe Research.

Michael Sullivan

I wanted to ask on how you think about the value of the 300 megawatts of open capacity in 2029. Just given the time line there, I think you're embedding like similar economics to what you've already locked in. But just as we think about that being further out in time, is the value the same? And should we think about like any incremental capacity we're kind of looking at 2029 at this point?

William Zartler

Great question. I think we are looking at incremental capacity, hopefully ahead of '29. I think the fundamental nature of buying power and going to try to sell that power in a package as a power plant to customers is sort of evolving away from that. Our customers are looking forward now as the -- so if you look at this, how rapidly the AI demand has ramped and the expectation on our customers about what they're going to need and how long, they're able to look ahead and plan a little bit better than they were about a year ago. And so we're in the conversations with them about how to do an orderly rollout of additional capacity for them over the next 3 to 5 years or 2 to 5 years.

And so the maturing of the business, if you will, has allowed us to be their trusted partner and planning ahead and thinking about and organizing a new OEM capacity or organizing some use, but the scramble, if you will, for cobbling together power plants to make it work over the last year or so looks a lot different as we go forward.

And so I think that what you'll see in the future is a bit of a partnership with our customers about providing them the infrastructure and the power infrastructure needed to go forward. And so I think those economics for both of us stabilize in there. And capital costs, we'll see how inflation gets managed, but the capital cost of the equipment should start to stabilize in these prices, I think, for the new generation capacity.

Michael Sullivan

Super helpful. And then just on the new contract, 15-year tenor kind of setting a new level, should we -- I guess, what unlocks being able to push that out? And should we think about that as the new baseline for future contracts with 15 years or more? Or could we see still some shorter?

William Zartler

I think there'll be a mix. I think it goes back to the maturing of this industry. If you kind of flow back a couple of years, no one really knew what was going to happen, how the power was going to get there, how big the demand was going to look like. And all of that has come out to be that the acceptance of needing a behind-the-meter bespoke power grid for your own use has become very accepted and frankly, the norm, both from the pushbacks that Amanda mentioned around connecting the grid and protecting rate payers on top of the reliability and control of that infrastructure in-house in partnership with our customers.

So I think the evolution of that says that this is here to stay. This is not a put some temporary power out there, and we're going to replace it simply in the future. It may reverse that this power stays there long time and actually become, as Kyle mentioned, a little bit of grid support into the communities, things are being overbuilt today in anticipation of catching up and as we look at the capacity, as we look at becoming more efficient.

So I alluded to in my part about how -- in order for these to stay, we're putting together simple cycle power plants today. I think it can evolve and it will evolve to more efficient power plants that actually are highly competitive with the grid and become a support for that in a way that's very positive for the total power situation in the country.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Derrick Whitfield with Texas Capital.

Derrick Whitfield

Congrats on your tremendous success over the last quarter. For my first question, I wanted to focus on your ability to acquire additional power gen assets as it's clear you have the ability to grow your contracted capacity. How would you characterize your appetite to grow capacity and the market opportunity you're seeing to acquire capacity at attractive prices as a result of the moratoriums and delays we're seeing?

Amanda Brock

Thanks. I mean we clearly are watching the market all the time, and we have shown that we have the capability to identify good equipment out there that we have acquired. As Kyle said, we added 1 gigawatt this year at very attractive prices. So I think as we look out and as Bill indicated, we are working with our customers more on a programmatic approach to acquiring generation. We have the balance sheet to support that. So we will continue to be very active in looking for equipment and also looking at where we would apply that equipment with our customers.

Kyle Ramachandran

I think to the point on specific geographies, there likely is equipment allocated to very specific projects that potentially run into challenges. And I think where we sit is a very nimble, flexible buyer of that equipment that can go wherever the chips end up going. And I think that's been very distinct and different in our business model than some of the other folks that are talking about powering AI. Many are doing it through infrastructure that is not mobile. It's locations that exist today and they're adding on to them. And I think where we've been very dynamic and nimble is building out a fleet and capacity with a set of assets that are able to be in multiple places. We've obviously vertically integrated in a way where the EPC side of that story as well as the installation and commissioning is something that's in-house at a significant scale. So I think that really distinguishes us as well.

Derrick Whitfield

Kyle, this is perhaps for you. But with respect to the service businesses, could you elaborate on the organic and inorganic opportunities you're seeing for growth as a result of your involvement in those businesses? I think you made some comments in your prepared remarks on that point. I'd love to hear more about it.

Kyle Ramachandran

Obviously, from an -- well, I guess, an internal perspective, we view this as derisking of the execution. And with respect to just capacity and capabilities, the market is very short, knowledgeable, capable people with real experience. So that positions us very well from a third-party perspective. From additionality with respect to M&A, we've now got a real track record of integrating multiple acquisitions over the last couple of years with entrepreneur-backed companies that have come in. And post-closing, they get to be a part of a bigger organization with more capital to help them scale and grow their businesses. So I think that will be a strategic angle that we continue to look at and are evaluating opportunities every day in that area.

Operator

The next question comes from Bobby Brooks with Northland Capital Markets.

Robert Brooks

It was really exciting to hear the 200 megawatts of near-term generation equipment secured. And I can appreciate you likely want to keep the how that occurred close to the chest. But what I did want to ask on was, one, is this new equipment or used equipment?

And then second, was the GESA team a big piece in either sourcing this or getting a level of comfortability to execute on it?

Amanda Brock

The GESA team always is very helpful in helping us identify what equipment is good. In terms of the equipment we purchased, some of this was new equipment and some of this was refurbished equipment.

Robert Brooks

And then in prior calls, there was like an emphasis of looking at different types of genset or different type of fuel sources, maybe pairing stuff with batteries. Just wanted to maybe hear an update there. I'm sure it's still on the docket or still evaluating it. But is that going to be more kind of led by what the customer wants? Just curious to hear an update there.

William Zartler

Yes. I mean from a generation stack, I think we did mention it, we just didn't get specific or name reciprocating engines or nuclear power or wind power, but we believe that various forms of generation are going to fit for the customer and fit for their specific location. There's areas where altitude and weather make a different kind of engine preferred over the other. So we continue to engineer, design and evaluate the right setup for the customer at all times.

Operator

The next question comes from Stephen Gengaro with Stifel.

Stephen Gengaro

Two questions for me. The first, when you look at the 4 major contracts that you have in place right now, can you just give us some color? And it's primarily because we've been getting this question in the last 1.5 days. But what's the contractual terms on duration? And are there any out clauses? And can you give us any color just to give people some comfort?

Amanda Brock

Certainly. So the 4 contracts that we have in place all have tenor. The last, obviously, on contractual terms, 15 years. The average weighted tenor of these contracts right now is 11 years. And in terms of outs, I think people have been very specifically trying to say, do these customers have the right to terminate the contract. And we do have termination for convenience provisions in our contracts. These are very favorable to us, basically 50% of the undiscounted future revenue. They do not get to keep the equipment. So we find ourselves if the unlikely event that occurred that we would own the equipment, it would be paid for and there'd be some limited return.

Kyle Ramachandran

I think, Stephen, even -- yes I mean, just to the point, I mean, even we look at the 3.5 gigawatts capacity, it's still a tiny fraction of the generation stack. So I think our customers view this as critical infrastructure. And so does it mean a change in terms of the near-term in terms of how megawatts get allocated broadly in their stack? Maybe. But in terms of their need for generation, this is obviously critical. And with respect to the percentage of their total, it's pretty small.

Amanda Brock

And I think the other thing to add to that, Kyle, it's a great point, is the fact that this generation -- and we keep saying it, but maybe people are not hearing it, this generation is very flexible. As Bill said, it can be moved. And also these contracts are not site specific. Obviously, with the one contract, we now are at a particular site, but there's very flexible and diverse geographic locations where this equipment could go, which really is very favorable for the customer.

Stephen Gengaro

Great. And then my follow-up, I think when you look at your kind of run rate EBITDA expectations and you laid out in the presentation and on the call, most of that, I think, is excluding a lot of these incremental opportunities from GESA and Omega, et cetera. Is that correct?

William Zartler

That is correct. I think we -- in our forward look, we have pared back, as I said earlier, a little bit of maybe the lumpiness or the acceleration of some construction and some activity on GESA. And I think we have -- in the long-term look, we have paired those numbers back to kind of steady state or below just to be -- we're generally on the conservative side.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Derek Podhaizer with Piper Sandler.

Derek Podhaizer

Bill, I just want to go back to some of your comments earlier in the Q&A. You talked about evolving to more efficient power plants where these could be highly competitive and complementary with the grid. I guess maybe just kind of in the future, as we think about the evolution of behind the meter, clearly more permanent than bridge. But then when we take a step further and these evolve over time, becoming competitive and complementary with the grid, maybe integrating with the grid and selling power back to the grid. Could you maybe talk to us about that and how you see this evolving and developing and maybe what technology in the future will be required for this evolution of the power plants that you're talking about?

William Zartler

Well, I think the simple answer to evolution that's actually required is additional switchgears. So everything we do today is up to 34.5. And so getting back into the grid, we need to step that up with a transformer. And I think that grid interconnectivity is going to be an important element of how these bespoke grids connect into each other and how you access potentially low-cost power off the grid. If there's opportunities on a very windy and sunny day somewhere and there's wind and solar power that's available for lower incremental cost than running some generation, I think that can flow into the system. And there's times when it's cloudy and there's no wind, and it may make sense for this generation to go the other direction.

So I think the evolution of what this looks like as a power pod, a grid -- on the grid, if you will, that's a power pod that can go multidirectional with its power, I think, is an evolution that we see coming, and we see it cost competitive at times. I mean the power prices are not the same all day long, every day they move quite a bit. And so that volatility in pricing structure was what will provide the ability for these to be peakers, if you will, back into the grid. At the same time, it will have demand that will be peaking on the negative when prices are really low. So I think this becomes a stabilizing factor to how the overall grid works over the long haul.

Derek Podhaizer

Great. No, that's helpful. And then maybe going back to the 400-megawatt power service agreement. Obviously, the power services side is a clear growth avenue for you all. Can you help us understand how you leverage some of your acquisitions, maybe specifically GESA as far as being able to secure this service agreement? And clearly, it's a new moat for you guys. So maybe just a little bit more color as what we could expect maybe additional power service contracts as we move into the future here?

Kyle Ramachandran

Yes. I mean the GESA team has a long track record of operating and providing O&M agreements to power generation all over the world. And so obviously, highly synergistic with what we're doing. The complement of their just inherent knowledge of the power generation world and then our specific knowledge with respect to operating these bespoke grids for AI compute. They just really are complementary to each other.

So we, as a historical Solaris operate a 24/7, all about reliability and uptime kind of equipment. And so that all links up together quite well. And yes, we find ourselves in the arena, as I like to say, and those being in the arena, those of us that are there, these opportunities are coming to us in many regards. And we continue to operate at a high degree of reliability with addressing issues as they come up and obtaining clear root cause analysis and demonstrating to the customers that we are aligned in terms of their objectives. And so those kind of synergies are certainly playing out as we establish ourselves here in this space.

Operator

The next question comes from Scott Gruber with Citigroup.

Scott Gruber

Bill and Amanda, I want to follow up on Dave's earlier question, but more from a macro perspective. So if we do see a scenario where permit moratoria are extended across a number of states and even after the moratoria, some states look to limit data center additions longer-term. How rapidly do you think the industry can shift to more accommodated states? It does sound like backup plans have been formulated, but obviously, these are large complicated projects. I'm just curious your perspective on how rapidly the industry can shift to more accommodated states if that is required at scale.

William Zartler

Well, I think if you look at the speed at which things were done in 2024 by our customer, that's probably an example of how quickly things can get done, and that was done in a matter of months. So finding a particular site that is favorable and building and putting the racks and power in and the appropriate permitting structure, we still have temporary permits in place that can happen and you have a Title V air permit controlled by the federal EPA. And I think that that's still accepted, and that's across the board for any power plant. So those rules are the same. And I think we meet all of the requirements to get Title V air permits than we've done in the past.

So I think that the flexibility is -- I think there are those that act pretty quickly and those that don't know how to act pretty quickly, but we think that we have the customers that will respond if needed, have the demand for the ultimate AI need and are going to make sure that they get their chips powered and we'll be part of that.

Kyle Ramachandran

And I think as we alluded to, the community benefits, there are places where this is happening. And what we are seeing is an expansion in those geographies. That's sort of -- so if you had one geographic location where you're building and you were contemplating another project somewhere else, if that new location has challenges, your most attractive opportunity to redeploy those ships is probably where you're already operating. And so we are -- we've been a part of that in our projects where people are seeing, hey, this is working here. Let's just put more here and keep going.

Amanda Brock

So there's an expansion of existing sites, but we know that our customers have not been focused on just a few sites. They have departments that are working on multiple locations, multiple sites throughout the country. So I think there have been a lot of contingency planning, and I think it's going to happen very quickly.

Scott Gruber

That's all great color. And then I want to come back to the third-party service ramp. It's been super impressive. A previous presentation back in September showed that rough contribution from services and how it's growing in 4Q and even more into 1Q. How should we think about the service EBITDA contribution going forward beyond 1Q? Obviously, longer-term, it should rise. But do you think in 2027, the pace that you're on and what you're forecasting to achieve in 1Q, is that sustainable? Is that a sustainable run rate for '27? Can you build upon that run rate beyond 1Q? Just curious about some color on this run rate since it's been so impressive in the last few quarters and obviously going to continue here for the next few quarters.

Kyle Ramachandran

Yes, I think the opportunity is that, yes, we've got the track record, we have the capabilities. And so could it expand beyond where we are today? Certainly.

I think where we sit from a sort of forecasting standpoint is we don't have the same degree of visibility that we have in our long-term contracts in the services side of things quite yet. We are working towards a paradigm whereby we'd be able to have greater visibility. But at this point, sort of the look forward to Q1 is sort of as far as we would probably feel comfortable guiding to the specific results at that point in time.

But I think as we look at the opportunity set, we're continuing to build momentum. We're adding resources to all of our services capabilities from a capital perspective, from a human capital perspective as well. And so I think that option exists, and we will sort of spoon-feed those updates as we move along. And has been our nature from a guidance perspective, there's a level of conservatism that we don't want to overreach and make commitments that we have to stretch to fulfill. So we're very focused on doing that, Scott, but I think the guidance around it will come over time.

Operator

The next question comes from Michael Dudas with Vertical Research Partners.

Michael Dudas

Just quickly on Omega and just on the EPC market, which to maybe assess continues to be tight and all. How do you -- when you think about those contracts that they're working on and that roll off, are you set up to allocate those resources more internally because of the opportunities you're securing now or looking at the future? Or is there a balance of the third-party market? Is the demand away from, say, the data center or power, customers are still reasonably good given all the investment that's been happening in the key states that they're located?

Kyle Ramachandran

Yes, I think there's multiple opportunities internally with the existing customer base and then an expanding customer base on that side of the equation. And then there's also the diversification of just pure capabilities. And so specific to the Omega business, there are significant scope of work happening today that are outside of the data center world. So those are capabilities that are around building infrastructure. And we, as Solaris are big believers in the need to do more of it across the country. And so those skill sets are applicable beyond just the data center world.

Michael Dudas

And is that an area where you'd be looking for inorganic opportunities as well, you think?

Kyle Ramachandran

I think we are opportunistic as always. And so yes, we're looking across the board. I think from a balance of portfolio mix, I mean, I think we view ourselves as an energy infrastructure business. And I think we do want a balanced portfolio that does have some level of short-term opportunities that are tip of the spear, but then also balance with obviously the long-term contracted pieces that we've built around the business.

Operator

We have reached the end of question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the call back over to Mr. Bill for any final closing remarks.

William Zartler

Thank you all for joining us today. This quarter's progress showed once again that our strategy is working, our team is executing and the company is growing rapidly. Our customers keep choosing to grow with us. At the same time, we keep integrating more of the power value chain. The combination is producing durable results. We have over 3.5 gigawatts under long-term contract and a clear path to significant free cash flow over the next decade. Solaris has never been better positioned. We have a growing contracted backlog and are built for the next decade of power demand. We remain extremely excited about what lies ahead despite getting our message out to the shareholder base.

A sincere thank you all to our employees, customers and partners. Your dedication and trust are the foundation of everything we are building. We look forward to sharing our continued progress. Thanks again, and have a great day. Thank you.

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.