ウォリアー・メット・コール (HCC) 2026年第3四半期決算説明会：ブルークリークがキャッシュフローを牽引

要点

• ウォリアー・メット・コールの2026年第3四半期の売上高は、販売量が前年同期比48%増の350万ショートトンとなったことで、前年同期の3億2900万ドルから5億800万ドルへと増加した。
• 純利益は2025年第3四半期の3700万ドル（希薄化後1株当たり0.70ドル）から4900万ドル（同0.93ドル）へと増加した。調整後EBITDAは76%増の1億2400万ドルとなり、マージンは22%から24%へと拡大した。
• 営業キャッシュフローは1億6600万ドルに達した。設備投資額2700万ドルを差し引いたフリーキャッシュフローは1億3900万ドルとなり、通常の四半期配当に加えて1株当たり2ドルの特別配当を実施する原資となった。
• ブルークリーク炭鉱が生産と販売の伸びを牽引した。四半期販売量に占める高揮発分A（High Vol A）炭の比率は前年同期比で25ポイント上昇して68%に達し、プレミアム低揮発分（Low-Vol）炭は32%を占めた。
• 余剰となった高揮発分A炭の在庫約55万ショートトンのスポット売却により約4900万ドルの現金を創出したが、当四半期の平均価格で販売した場合と比較して、平均純販売価格を1トン当たり約8ドル、調整後EBITDAを約2700万ドル押し下げる結果となった。
• 経営陣は2026年通期の業績予想（ガイダンス）を据え置いた。足元の原料炭価格は下支えされるものの9月の高値を下回る水準にとどまると見込んでおり、市場環境は中国の生産規制や世界的な鉄鋼需要に極めて敏感に反応するとしている。

主要財務データ

事業および操業実績

ブルークリーク炭鉱が引き続き主たる成長牽引役となった。ロングウォール（長壁採掘）操業開始から約1年が経過し、同炭鉱の立ち上げが進んだことで四半期の生産量と販売量が拡大したほか、ウォリアー・メット・コールの高揮発分A（High Vol A）炭の構成比率が高まった。経営陣は、顧客によるブルークリーク炭の採用・引き取りペースが引き続き予想を上回っていると述べた。

2026年第3四半期の販売構成比は、高揮発分A炭が68%、プレミアム低揮発分炭が32%となった。地域別では、アジア向けが55%、欧州向けが35%、南米向けが10%を占めた。太平洋沿岸地域向けの販売比率は、インドや東南アジアからの需要に加え、ブルークリーク炭鉱の増産を反映し、2025年第3四半期の38%から55%に上昇した。

製鉄用原料炭の在庫は、2026年6月末時点の140万ショートトンから、同年9月30日時点には96万7000ショートトンへと減少した。経営陣は、在庫が正常化したことから、価格や数量に伴う売掛金の変動を除けば、運転資本はおおむね安定して推移すると見込んでいる。

第7炭鉱の生産量は、ロングウォール設備の移設や厳しい地質条件の影響により、前四半期比で30万9000ショートトン（22%）減少した。固定費の吸収低下により、連結キャッシュコストは2026年第2四半期比で1トン当たり約11ドル、2025年第3四半期比で約7ドル上昇した。経営陣は、第7炭鉱は現在正常に稼働していると説明した。

2026年第3四半期の豪州FOBプレミアム低揮発分炭（PLV）指数の平均は1ショートトン当たり225ドルとなり、2026年第2四半期の216ドル、2025年第3四半期の166ドルから上昇した。9月の平均は1トン当たり252ドルに達した。中国CFRプレミアム低揮発分炭指数の平均は1トン当たり243ドルとなり、前四半期の212ドルから上昇した。

ウォリアーのグロス価格実現率は66%となり、2026年第2四半期から横ばいだったものの、2025年第3四半期の83%を下回った。前年同期比での低下は、海上運賃や滞船料の上昇、高揮発分A炭の販売比率拡大、および固定価格での在庫現金化を反映したものである。

経営陣の業績ガイダンス

ウォリアー・メット・コールは、これまでの進捗実績と現在の操業見通しを踏まえ、前四半期に公表した2026年通期のガイダンスを再確認（据え置き）した。

2026年第4四半期について経営陣は、高揮発分A炭と低揮発分炭の販売構成比は第3四半期と同程度になるとの見方を示した。また、石炭価格指数間の格差が続いていることから、第3四半期のグロス実現率66%は方向性を捉える上で合理的な目安になると述べた。

経営陣は、輸送費やロイヤルティ費用の増加、インフレ、および高水準の滞船料が年末まで引き続きコストに影響を及ぼすと見込んでいる。計画されている河川航行やシップローダーの稼働停止、ならびに通常水準を上回る運賃および滞船料は、すでに同社の事業計画および通期ガイダンスに織り込まれている。

2027年について経営陣は、ブルークリーク炭鉱の生産量が2026年を上回ると予想しているものの、目標値は確定していない。同社は、第1ロングウォールの産出量を増やすためのボトルネック解消や段階的な改善策を検証している。第2ロングウォール導入の可能性については、市場が追加供給を吸収できるかどうかにかかっており、数年単位のリードタイムが必要となる。

リスク要因と注視すべき点

• 経営陣は、原料炭価格のボラティリティが依然として高く、特に中国政府の安全規制に敏感に反応すると予想している。規制が継続すれば中国国内価格および海上貿易価格が下支えされる可能性がある一方、緩和されれば中国の増産につながり市場に下押し圧力がかかる可能性がある。
• 中国における鉄鋼需要の低迷と製鉄メーカーの利幅縮小が、原料炭価格の上値を抑える可能性がある。また経営陣は、セカンドティア炭がプレミアム低揮発分（PLV）炭に対して割安な状態が続くと見込んでいる。
• 運賃は2025年第3四半期比で22%上昇し、滞船料は44%上昇した。中東紛争、河川の閉鎖、港湾設備の補修、悪天候、停電などがコスト上昇に拍車をかけた。
• オーストラリアの輸出やクイーンズランド州の一部炭鉱における操業拡大により、プレミアム炭の調達環境が改善する可能性がある。また、ディーゼル燃料不足の緩和に伴い、モンゴル国境からの輸送量も回復する可能性がある。
• 米国の炭鉱における操業障害により、少なくとも2027年前半までは一部の米国産高揮発分A炭の供給が制約される見込みである。
• 第7炭鉱は通常操業に戻ったものの、輸送ロイヤルティや資材インフレが依然としてコスト圧迫要因となっている。

アナリスト質疑応答の要点

コスト圧力：経営陣は、第7炭鉱における前四半期比のコスト増加について、生産量減少と固定費吸収の悪化が原因であるとした。輸送費およびロイヤルティが1トン当たり約6ドル、資材・用度のインフレが約2ドルの押し上げ要因となった。これらの圧力は、キャッシュコストを1トン当たり約8ドル押し下げた低コストなブルークリーク炭鉱の生産量増加や、約3ドルの効果をもたらした第45X条生産税額控除によって一部相殺された。

中国市場への販売機会：ウォリアーは、関税が撤廃され、裁定取引による利幅が運賃格差を十分にカバーできる状況になれば、中国向けスポット販売を検討すると述べた。経営陣は、配分についてはインドなどの他市場と比較した収益性や既存顧客からの需要に基づいて判断すると強調した。

資本配分：経営陣は、ブルークリーク炭鉱が潜在能力に向けて立ち上がる間、余剰キャッシュフローは株主に還元される見通しであると述べた。自社株買いに向けた特定の株価水準は設けておらず、事業環境全般やキャッシュ創出力を踏まえ、取締役会とともに配当や自社株買いについて検討していくとした。

欧州の需要動向：経営陣は、欧州の状況について濃淡はあるものの、9カ月前の想定よりは堅調であると説明した。顧客は契約分およびスポット分の引き取りを進めており、ウォリアーには追加供給の要請も寄せられている。

ブルークリーク炭鉱の拡張：2027年の予算は策定中であるものの、経営陣は2027年の生産量が改定後の2026年ガイダンスに織り込まれた500万ショートトンを上回ると予想している。さらなる拡張にあたっては、第2ロングウォールを検討する前に、まず既存のロングウォールのボトルネック解消に注力する方針である。

決算説明会トランスクリプト全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Good afternoon. My name is Drew, and I will be your conference call operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Warrior Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]

This call is being recorded and will be available for replay on the company's website. I would like to turn the call over to Brian Chopin, Chief Accounting Officer and Controller. Please go ahead.

Brian M. Chopin

Good afternoon, and welcome, everyone, to Warrior's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call.

Before we begin, let me remind you that certain statements made during this call, including statements relating to our expected future business and financial performance, may be considered forward-looking statements according to the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. Forward-looking statements, by their nature, address matters that are to different degrees, uncertain.

These uncertainties, which are described in more detail in the company's annual and quarterly reports filed with the SEC, may cause our actual future results to be materially different from those expected in our forward-looking statements. We do not undertake to update our forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as may be required by law. For more information regarding forward-looking statements, please refer to the company's press releases and SEC filings.

We'll also be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures, which are defined and reconciled to comparable GAAP financial measures in our third quarter press release furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K, which is also posted on our website. Additionally, we will be filing our Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, with the SEC this afternoon.

You can find additional information regarding the company on our website at www.warriormetcoal.com, which also includes a third quarter supplemental slide deck that was posted this afternoon.

Today on the call with me are Mr. Walt Scheller, Chief Executive Officer; and Mr. Dale Boyles, Chief Financial Officer. After our formal remarks, we'll be happy to answer any questions. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Walt.

Walter Scheller

Thanks, Brian. Hello, everyone, and thank you for taking the time to join us today to discuss our third quarter 2026 results. I'll start by providing an overview of the quarter before Dale reviews our results in additional detail.

Warrior delivered strong third quarter results that demonstrate the progress we are making in the next phase of our growth strategy. Higher volumes from Blue Creek, improved pricing and disciplined execution generated significant free cash flow, strengthened our balance sheet and supported the Board's declaration of a $2 per share special dividend. Approximately one year after commencing longwall operations at Blue Creek, eight months ahead of schedule, we're already seeing this transformational investment contribute to meaningful cash generation and enhance our ability to return excess cash to stockholders. From a steelmaking coal market perspective, the third quarter 2026 was shaped by a number of events, including most significantly the Chinese government's response to the tragic mining incident in China.

The resulting safety inspections and production restrictions reduced domestic coking coal availability and drove Chinese steelmaking coal and coke prices materially higher. This reopened the arbitrage between China's CFR and the Australian FOB indices and led to renewed Chinese buying of premium seaborne steelmaking coal. Pricing increased more than we had expected, particularly during September, despite steel fundamentals remaining relatively weak.

The quarter also provided further evidence of the continued vulnerability of metallurgical coal supply chains. A U.S. mine fire negatively impacted the availability of High Vol A coals with the disruption expected to continue into 2027. Mongolian border crossings also declined materially during the second half of September because of diesel fuel shortages and other restrictions.

These events, together with Chinese production constraints supported a supply-driven rally even as broader spot demand remains relatively weak. The World Steel Association reported recently that global pig iron production declined during the first nine months of 2026 by 2% as compared to the same period last year. India continued to show growth with a 3.1% increase year-over-year, while China remained the primary source of weakness with a 3% decrease in production as the country continues to grapple with soft internal demand and weak steel margins.

This regional split remains consistent with the broader market narrative with resilient demand in India and other parts of Asia, offset by continued softness in China and an uneven recovery across developed markets.

Against that backdrop, our primary index, the PLV FOB Australia averaged $225 per short ton during the third quarter, an increase of $9 per ton from the second quarter average of $216. The increase was concentrated in September when the index averaged $252 per ton. The average index price in this year's third quarter was 36% higher than the $166 per short ton in the third quarter of last year.

The PLV CFR China Index experienced an even greater increase, averaging $243 per ton for the third quarter compared to $212 in the second quarter of this year, clearly reflecting the reopening of the arbitrage due to stronger Chinese domestic pricing.

Second-tier indices also increased during the third quarter, although they continue to trade at meaningful discounts to the PLV. The Australian LVHCC index averaged $192 per short ton, equivalent to 86% of the PLV compared to 79% in the second quarter of this year. The U.S. East Coast HVA index averaged $155 per short ton, equivalent to 69% of the PLV compared to 66% during the second quarter of this year.

HVA pricing benefited from renewed trades into China. However, the broader spot market for second-tier steelmaking coals remained relatively weak. The average U.S. East Coast HVA index price in this year's third quarter was 10% higher than the $141 per short ton in the third quarter of last year.

Our gross price realization was 66% for the third quarter, consistent with the second quarter and compared to 83% in the third quarter of 2025. Although our realizations have been fairly consistent for the first nine months this year, the year-over-year change reflects several factors.

First, while our main pricing indices were higher, freight rates to Asia and demurrage rates were significantly higher, reflecting the ongoing conflict in the Middle East as well as production and logistics disruptions during the quarter.

Second, our product mix continued to evolve with a mix of High Vol A products sold increasing by 25 percentage points compared to the same quarter last year, reflecting the growing contribution from Blue Creek.

Lastly, our third quarter 2026 realizations were impacted by the onetime monetization of surplus inventories at fixed rather than index-linked pricing.

Turning back to our financial results. Warrior achieved third quarter sales volume of 3.5 million short tons, an increase of 48% from the prior year quarter, primarily reflecting the successful ramp-up of Blue Creek.

Our third quarter sales volume mix was 68% High Vol A and 32% premium Low-Vol. This represents a 25 percentage point increase in High Vol A volumes over the prior year's third quarter.

During the third quarter, we took advantage of a onetime opportunity to monetize our surplus High Vol A coal inventories that has accumulated from the early start-up of Blue Creek. In the early part of the second quarter, we entered into fixed price contracts to sell approximately 550,000 tons based upon the market conditions and pricing outlook at the time. While subsequent market developments, including the Chinese mining accident in May, supported seaborne steelmaking coal prices at higher levels for longer than originally anticipated, the transactions generated approximately $49 million of cash, reduced surplus tons and further normalized our inventory position following the Blue Creek start-up.

Monetizing the surplus volume reduced our average net selling price by approximately $8 per ton during the quarter. Based upon our average third quarter high-volume selling price, the monetization also reduced adjusted EBITDA by approximately $27 million compared to the amount that would have been realized had those tons been sold at the average price.

Our steelmaking coal inventories decreased to 967,000 short tons at the end of September of this year compared to 1.4 million tons at the end of June 2026.

Our sales by geography for the third quarter break down as follows: 55% into Asia, 35% into Europe and 10% into South America. Our spot volume was 12% for the third quarter of 2026. Sales volumes in the Pacific Basin were 55% this quarter compared to 38% in the third quarter of 2025, primarily reflecting the demand growth from India and other Southeast Asian countries, combined with the higher volumes from Blue Creek.

Production volume for the third quarter increased 36% to 3.1 million short tons compared to 2.2 million in the same quarter last year, driven by the continued contribution from Blue Creek. At Mine 7, production was lower sequentially as we completed the longwall move and encountered challenging mining and geological conditions as we finished the prior longwall panel and began production on the new panel.

At Mine 7 production was 309,000 tons or 22% lower than the second quarter, which resulted in lower fixed cost absorption and increased our overall cash cost per short ton by approximately $11. I'll now ask Dale to address our third quarter results in greater detail.

Dale Boyles

Thanks, Walt. We were pleased with our financial results for the third quarter of 2026, which reflected strong volume growth, improved pricing and significant free cash flow generation. These results further strengthened our financial position and supported the Board's declaration of the $2 per share special dividend in addition to our regular quarterly dividend.

Now let me walk through the third quarter financial results in greater detail. Warrior recorded net income of $49 million or $0.93 per diluted share in the third quarter of this year compared to net income of $37 million or $0.70 per diluted share in the same quarter of 2025.

We reported adjusted EBITDA of $124 million compared to $71 million in the same quarter of 2025, an increase of 76%. Our adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 24% in the third quarter of 2026 compared to 22% in the same quarter of last year. On a per ton basis, our adjusted EBITDA margin improved by 18% to $36 per short ton for the third quarter of 2026 compared to $30 in last year's third quarter.

The primary drivers of these improvements were a 48% increase in sales volumes and a 6% increase in average net selling prices, partially offset by a 4% increase in cash costs. Total revenues were $508 million compared to $329 million in the same quarter of last year. The total increase of $179 million was primarily due to the impact of higher sales volumes of $157 million and the impact of an increase in average gross selling prices of $113 million.

These positive items were partially offset by the impact of a 25 percentage point higher mix of High Vol A tons sold, which had a negative impact on revenues of $47 million. In addition, demurrage and other charges were $14 million higher compared to last year's third quarter, which lowered overall revenues. The onetime inventory monetization also lowered total revenues by approximately $27 million. This resulted in an average net selling price of $144 per short ton in the third quarter of 2026 compared to $136 in the third quarter of last year.

Overall demurrage and freight rates were 44% and 22% higher, respectively, than in the prior year quarter. Both were impacted by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, while demurrage expenses also reflected lower-than-planned Mine 7 production and several temporary transportation and vessel loading disruptions during the quarter.

Our River system was unavailable for much of the third quarter, while the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers completed critical lock repairs. This disruption, combined with high demand for our brands, elevated freight rates, the multi-day impact of Tropical Storm Bertha, a complete four-day power outage and maintenance at the McDuffie Terminal resulted in higher-than-average demurrage expenses.

Looking ahead, additional planned river and ship loader outages, together with elevated freight and demurrage rates are expected to keep demurrage and freight costs above normal through year-end and possibly longer. These planned outages and elevated rates are already incorporated into our current operating plans and full year guidance.

Cash cost of sales were $366 million or 73% of mining revenues in the third quarter of this year compared to $237 million or 74% of mining revenues in the third quarter of last year. Of the $129 million increase, approximately $114 million was attributable to the 48% increase in sales volumes, with the remaining $15 million primarily reflecting lower than-planned Mine 7 production and higher transportation and royalty costs.

Lower Mine 7 production resulted in lower fixed cost absorption, increasing our overall cash cost by approximately $7 per ton. Higher transportation royalty costs driven by higher average steelmaking coal price indices increased cash costs by approximately $6 per ton, while inflationary cost increases in materials and supplies added approximately $2 per ton.

These cost pressures were partially offset by the leverage of the growing contribution of lower-cost Blue Creek volumes, which reduced cash costs by approximately $8 per ton and the Section 45X production tax credit, which provided an additional benefit of approximately $3 per ton.

The impact of these factors increased our cash cost of sales per short ton FOB port by approximately $4 per ton to $105 in the third quarter from $101 in the same quarter last year. Cash margins per short ton increased 10% to $39 from $35 in the same quarter of last year as higher selling prices more than offset the increase in unit cost.

Our third quarter 2026 SG&A expenses were $14 million and were $3 million lower than the same quarter of 2025, primarily due to lower employee-related expenses, including stock-based compensation. Depreciation and depletion expenses were $68 million in the third quarter, an increase of 56% from the prior year quarter, primarily due to the additional Blue Creek assets placed into service and 48% higher sales volumes.

Now let us turn to cash flows. Cash flows from operating activities were $166 million, an increase of $61 million from the prior year quarter, driven primarily by higher revenues and strong operating performance. Working capital provided $34 million of cash, primarily reflecting the monetization of surplus steelmaking coal inventories and strong accounts receivable collections, partially offset by equipment deposits and higher receivables associated with the Section 45X production tax credit.

After $27 million of capital expenditures, we generated free cash flow of $139 million. As discussed on our second quarter earnings call in early August, Warrior has entered the next phase of its growth strategy, focused on free cash flow generation, balance sheet strength and long-term shareholder returns. Our third quarter cash generation increased total liquidity to $578 million, consisting of $437 million of cash and cash equivalents and $141 million available under our ABL facility.

Finally, let me turn to our full year 2026 outlook. Customer reception and adoption of Blue Creek volumes have continued to exceed our expectations. Based upon our year-to-date performance and current operating outlook, we are reaffirming the full year guidance provided last quarter as detailed in our earnings release. I'll now turn it back to Walt for his final comments.

Walter Scheller

Thanks, Dale. In summary, Warrior delivered another strong quarter. Higher sales volumes and improved pricing generated significant free cash flow and further strengthened our balance sheet and liquidity. The Board's declaration of the special dividend marks an important milestone and demonstrates our commitment to disciplined capital allocation and long-term stockholder returns.

Looking ahead, we expect steelmaking coal prices to remain supportive in the near term, although below the September peak as recent supply disruptions are balanced against uneven global steel demand. The market will remain extremely sensitive to Chinese government actions, continuation of the current safety restrictions, which support domestic and seaborne pricing, while any relaxation of those measures could allow Chinese coal production to recover and place downward pressure on the market.

We also expect that overall and persistent weakness in Chinese domestic steel demand as demonstrated by low producer margins will provide resistance to steelmaking coal pricing. We also expect second-tier steelmaking coals to remain discounted relative to the PLV.

Outside China, supply conditions remain mixed. Australian exports have increased compared with last year and the continued ramp-up of select Queensland mines should improve premium steelmaking coal availability. Mongolian border crossings should recover as the diesel shortage is resolved. However, the extended U.S. mine disruption is expected to continue to limit certain U.S. High Vol A coal supply through at least the first half of 2027.

These competing factors should keep the market volatile and responsive to short-term supply developments. Warrior enters the environment from a position of increased strength. Blue Creek has expanded our production base and its growing contribution is enhancing our ability to generate cash across a range of market conditions. Together with our high-quality assets and low first quartile cost position, this provides a strong foundation as we continue to optimize production, control costs, strengthen our balance sheet and return excess cash to stockholders while preserving the flexibility to pursue attractive long-term opportunities.

With that, we'd like to open the call for questions. Operator?

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

First question comes from Nick Giles with B. Riley.

質疑応答

Nick Giles

I was hoping you could just kind of break out some of the cost pressures you're seeing. Obviously, costs were a little more elevated this quarter than last. Could you just break that down by how much of that is input cost inflation? How much was attributable to the volume dynamic and maybe the royalties as well?

Dale Boyles

Yes. Thanks, Nick. This is Dale. Yes, I tried to outline that in our prepared remarks. The biggest contributor this quarter and it depends on what quarter you're comparing it to, right? But this quarter compared to last quarter, the second quarter. Mine 7, lower production really, we didn't get the cost leverage, and that was about $7 a ton. So -- I'm sorry, that was $11 versus the second quarter. And then transportation royalties, right, those are variable and those go up with met coal prices. So that was about $6.

And then inflation is about $2. We've been saying that we are seeing inflation in the aggregate starting to impact us. No one item is material. But when you add it up, you're looking at a couple of bucks. So as we move forward, I would say, with the spike in met coal prices in September, that was the month that peaked the most. That's carrying over into the fourth quarter. So you would see higher cost in the fourth quarter because of transportation and royalties, the variable cost, some inflation.

So those kind of things, we would expect to continue to see. As far as royalties, yes, and I covered the royalties. So demurrage. Demurrage is another one with the rates there being so much higher than they have been, 44% higher. And with some of the disruption we had at the port, we'll probably have some of that again in the fourth quarter because of the hurricane. We were down for four days or the port was down for four days, and we didn't get to load some vessels. So we'll have some incremental demurrage there.

We'll try to make up that volume, but we'll definitely have some more demurrage. And we see those rates continuing to be high until some of the situation is resolved in the Middle East that hopefully will get resolved and lower some of these freight and demurrage rates back to normal.

Nick Giles

No, that's very helpful, Dale. I appreciate the additional clarification. I guess just on the point of Mine 7, were there any specific drivers that led to the lower volumes this quarter? And then how do you see that? Should we expect that to revert here in 4Q to kind of some of the output levels we've seen in the first two quarters?

Walter Scheller

This is Walt. Yes. My expectation is things get back closer to what we would expect normally. We had a longwall -- well, actually, both longwalls were approaching areas where the geology got a little more difficult. And normally, we'll have one longwall kind of in a sweet spot when the other is in a difficult spot, so we can just run one a little harder than the other. This time, we had both of them in a little bit of a thinner coal or tougher conditions, and we had to work our way through that in the quarter, and we did that, and we should be in better shape now.

Operator

The next question comes from George Eadie with UBS

George Eadie

Looks pretty good and clean here. Just a quick one on the tariff of U.S. imports into China. If that was to remove, would you guys sell anything into China potentially? Or whilst, I guess, like do you envisage that as a potential tailwind to your realized price as some of your peers sell High Vol A that was historically going into India, into China instead?

Walter Scheller

I think if the tariffs went away and there were spot opportunities, we would look at those spot opportunities and determine if we had the additional volume and we thought those opportunities were really good opportunities, we would certainly consider them. I think right now, given our current customer base, the absorption of any additional tons we could come up with would probably be taken by those customers. before we would do anything else, but sure, we'd look at it.

Dale Boyles

Yes. I think, George, the arbitrage would have to be wide enough to think about the freight differential, right? Is it going to be more profitable to sell to India or China based on what that is? How much of it covers the freight and where is it most profitable? We're here to make money, not sell coal.

George Eadie

Okay. And then one more Walt as well -- sorry, Dale, working cap, any guidance 4Q is a flat sort of cash assumption best given sort of we see a bit of an unwind this quarter?

Dale Boyles

Yes. I think now that we've normalized our inventory levels, I think working capital should be flattish. There might be some up and downs just with AR depending on pricing and volumes. But I think we're kind of getting to a level now that it will be steady and stable.

George Eadie

Okay. That makes sense. And then just clarifying that Mine 7 underperformance you were talking for, was that $7 or $11 a short ton quarter-on-quarter? I think you maybe got me a bit confused there before, Dale. And then just secondly, can you talk through how that actually happens? Is it quite literally just dollar denominator? Is that the only thing? Like I'm just trying to back calculate if there's some sort of more meaningful cost creep coming in that sort.

Dale Boyles

Yes. The impact coming from the second quarter to the third quarter had an $11 per ton impact. But when you compare it to last year's third quarter, that was a $7 impact when you compare those two different periods. And I think I answered your question actually earlier on the previous question. We talked about the inflation, right? Transportation royalties continue to be higher given met coal prices. So we'll see those kind of things continue into the fourth quarter, so which puts us right there on track with our overall cost guidance for the year.

Operator

The next question comes from Katja Jancic with BMO Capital Markets.

Katja Jancic

Maybe just staying on the cost side very quickly. I think you said that the issues at Mine 7 are now behind you. Is that correct?

Walter Scheller

Yes. they're operating normally.

Katja Jancic

So wouldn't that mean that then the headwind on the cost side should basically be reduced now if the mine haven't operated at normal rates?

Dale Boyles

Yes. For that particular item, yes. But we'll continue to see transportation royalties higher inflation, those kind of things.

Katja Jancic

All right. And maybe on the price realization side, I think some of the freight costs have eased a bit in recent weeks. How should we think about price realization in 4Q? What are the moving pieces there?

Walter Scheller

Well, the movement in prices and the movement in freight rates. I mean, just while prices have descended on the PLV, the High Vol A index went up $3 last week. So those are the moving pieces in the freight rates, obviously, yes, we've seen those ease a little bit, but they're still averaging significantly higher than the low to mid-$30 range, which would be more like normal about two, three years ago.

Operator

The next question comes from Nathan Martin with StoneX.

Nathan Martin

Just maybe thinking about your pricing for the fourth quarter in a different way. You called out gross price realizations were 66% in 3Q. I think that was the same as the second quarter. Is that kind of a good way to think about 4Q? Or could that actually even improve some just given you won't have the onetime inventory sales of the Blue Creek tons you mentioned? It would just be helpful to get your thoughts on how you guys see the sales mix by quality as well in the fourth quarter.

Dale Boyles

Yes. Thanks, Nate. I think directionally, that's probably a good place to start because when you have prices going up, we're still seeing these meaningful differences in the price indices, right? The relativities have been staying in that range, it was up slightly in the third quarter from the second. I think that's just a good starting point right there, just given where these relativities have been over the last few quarters. So I think it's been five quarters, six quarters now.

Nathan Martin

Okay. Great. Any thoughts on sales mix by quality for the fourth quarter?

Walter Scheller

No, this is Walt. The sales mix, High Vol A versus Low-Vol ought to be about the same as it was in the third quarter.

Nathan Martin

Okay. And then, Dale, I apologize if I missed this when you're given the rundown earlier on the cost items for the quarter. But how much do you think the logistics disruptions you talked about added to the cash cost per ton in 3Q? And then how much do you think of that is sticky through the year-end as you talked about, you still might be running into some of those issues?

Dale Boyles

Well, on the demurrage side, I think it's what you're referring to. That was up about $3 million from the second quarter and significantly more versus last year. And we've been running that way this year because demurrage rates are up 20 -- I believe it's 22% this year. So whenever you have any of these disruptions, I mean, combined, it was hard to break out which one contributed the most. It adds up, right?

During the third quarter, we had just different things happening there, not only with the rates being higher, but you had the tropical storm, the power outage, the maintenance, all those things just added up. Now coming into the fourth quarter, we're going to have similar kind of things, right? We had the hurricane in early October that pushed some vessels out. So we didn't get those loaded. We're going to try to make up that volume, but we're still going to incur the demurrage. It's just hopefully less than we would have.

The river is going to be -- was out again in September and October. So that's behind us now. So that's improving. And that's kind of what we're seeing here in the short term, probably for the next quarter or so, maybe another quarter after that, just depending on how quickly some of this situation with Iran helps improve the overall freight market.

Operator

The next question comes from Matthew Key with Texas Capital.

Unknown Analyst

Most of mine were touched on, but I guess I wanted to ask about just longer-term capital allocation strategy. Assuming the market cooperates, cash flow could be really attractive over the next couple of years even with some of these inflationary pressures. You could obviously return a lot of that to shareholders, but you could also pursue additional volume growth maybe in the form of M&A or adding the second longwall at Blue Creek. Do you have a view on what is a better return to shareholders kind of in the current market, but from a longer-term perspective?

Dale Boyles

Well, I think for right now, what we've said is, look, we expect our excess cash flow to go back to shareholders. We've got to ramp up Blue Creek to its full potential. We've always said, look, there's even more potential there with the second longwall. I think we need to see that the market can absorb those additional tons before we would go in that direction. And that has a lead time on it, right, of a few years. So for now, I think we're going to be looking at returns to shareholders until we see something significantly change in the market.

Operator

The next question is a follow-up from Nick Giles with B. Riley.

Nick Giles

I just wanted to ask maybe more directly on the capital return front. What price level in the equity do you need to see before you're ready to step in and kind of be more aggressive on the buyback front? I mean the stock is now 26% off the August highs. Your operations certainly haven't gotten 26% worse. So I would think it's a good time to look at that, but curious for your perspective.

Dale Boyles

Thanks, Nick. Yes, we are always looking at that when we look at capital allocation and discuss it with our Board. We haven't set thresholds of a target price that says we'll do one thing or the other. We look at things more broadly than just that. So it's to be determined as we go forward talking to the Board every quarter and depending on what cash gets generated.

Nick Giles

No, fair enough, Dale, and it was good to see the special dividend. I guess maybe just switching gears, if I could. Could you just speak to some of the opportunities you're seeing in Europe? Are you seeing any blast furnace restarts really taking shape? And could there be additional pull on U.S. coals over the coming quarters?

Walter Scheller

I think Europe is -- it's kind of mixed, but I do think there's some -- what we say the green shoots. I do think that Europe is doing fairly well. They're taking their tons. They're taking spot tons. We have requests for additional tons. So I do think Europe is it's mixed, but I think stronger than we would have thought if we were looking at it nine months ago.

Nick Giles

That's good to hear, Walt. And I'll sneak one more in, if I could. I think you were speaking to you want to wait until the market is ready to absorb the tons of Blue Creek that could come from the second longwall. But I was just curious on how you're thinking about ramping up this first longwall. I think year-to-date, it's at about a 5 million ton run rate. But you have spoken in the past about the ability to run closer to that 6 million to 7 million tonne range. So as we think out to 2027, where should we expect Blue Creek to shake out?

Walter Scheller

I think some of the things we've done this year, we added the additional continuous miner unit. As we run this mine and running at substantial levels, we're getting to see where are the bottlenecks and do we have any problems from the coal preparation standpoint and working our way through those. So now it's just kind of incrementally figuring out bottleneck by bottleneck, how do we tweak the system to get us beyond where we are today and where we think the potential capacity is.

And as we've said, market reception has been great. And we'll continue to see what we can do with that one longwall. It's just going to take a little bit of time for us to figure it out and to get it developed, and then we'll be watching the market carefully and seeing what's going on to determine do we need or should we add that second longwall, or if we're bringing out that first longwall, that is about what the market needs.

Dale Boyles

Let me just add a little something to that, Nick. I think when you're thinking about '27, we put 5 million tons in the guidance this year when we update our guidance at the end of the second quarter. So all of that is going well. So we would expect volumes to be better next year. We just don't have a final number yet as we're working through the budget and getting ready to have that meeting discussion with the Board to get that approved for next year. So we'd expect it to be higher than where we're going to be in '26. That's all I can give you right now at this moment.

Operator

At this time, there are no further questions. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Scheller for any comments.

Walter Scheller

That concludes our call this afternoon. Thank you again for joining us today. We appreciate your interest in Warrior. Thank you.

Operator

And that concludes today's conference. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.