XPLRインフラストラクチャー (XIFR) 2026年第3四半期決算説明会：2027年ガイダンスと風力リスク

要点

• XPLRインフラストラクチャーが発表した2026年第3四半期の調整後EBITDAは約4億7,100万ドル、成長投資前フリーキャッシュフローは1億6,400万ドルとなりました。
• 既存プロジェクトは、主に風況の正常化と純営業費用が良好に推移したことにより、調整後EBITDAを前年同期比で約4,900万ドル、成長投資前フリーキャッシュフローを2,400万ドル増加させました。
• 経営陣は現在、2026年通期の調整後EBITDAの見通しについて従来予想レンジの下位半分にとどまり、成長投資前フリーキャッシュフローは従来予想レンジの下限付近になると見込んでいます。
• 2027年については、調整後EBITDAを15億6,000万ドル〜17億ドル、成長投資前フリーキャッシュフローを5億2,500万ドル〜6億ドルと予想しています。
• 2026年に計画されていたリパワリング（設備更新）工事の約85%が完了しました。また、XPLRは8月と10月に約400メガワットの系統接続資産および権利を売却しました。
• XPLRは10月に2026年償還予定の無担保社債の残額約3,300万ドルを償還し、2026年残りの期間における社債償還を無くしました。

主要財務データ

第3四半期の比較には、2025年9月に完了した資産売却も反映されています。成長投資前フリーキャッシュフローは、タックス・エクイティ投資家からの調達資金減少、2025年のリパワリング計画に伴うプロジェクトファイナンスコストの上昇、および2025年3月に発行された約17億5,000万ドルの無担保社債に対する利息支払いの増加により圧迫されました。

事業および業績の動向

XPLRは2026年に予定していたリパワリングの約85%を完了しました。経営陣によると、残りの工事も順調に進展しており、ポートフォリオの長期的な価値向上に寄与する見込みです。

同社は7月にネクストエラ・エナジー・リソース（NextEra Energy Resources）と蓄電池分野で初となる2つの合弁会社を設立しました。また、8月と10月には追加で約400メガワットの系統接続資産および権利の売却を完了しました。

約200メガワット分は蓄電池協定に関連して売却され、その売却益は4つの蓄電プロジェクトに対するXPLRのエクイティ出資の一部に充てられる予定です。残りの約200メガワット分からの売却益は、対象プロジェクトへの再投資に活用される見込みです。

経営陣は、XPLRがギガワット規模の余剰系統接続容量を保有していると述べました。同社は、評価額や資本配分上のメリットが魅力的な案件について、直接売却や共同投資構造のさらなる活用を検討する方針です。

XPLRはまた、既存契約の満了前に取引相手候補と契約延長および最適化についての協議を進めています。経営陣は、これらの機会が長期的なプロジェクト収益性と成長投資前フリーキャッシュフローを改善させる可能性があるものの、2027年の業績見通しへの寄与は限定的なものにとどまると述べています。

業績見通し（ガイダンス）

経営陣は、2026年通期の調整後EBITDAが従来の予想レンジの下位半分で着地すると見込んでいます。成長投資前フリーキャッシュフローは、従来予想レンジの下限またはその付近になる見通しです。

見直された見通しは、XPLRが高価格の電力購入契約（PPA）を締結している西部地域において風力および太陽光資源が想定を下回ったことを反映しています。また、エルニーニョ現象により2026年残りの期間で風力資源が少なくとも3%低下すると仮定しています。経営陣は、保有全設備の風力発電量が1%変動するごとに、2026年残りの期間の調整後EBITDAに400万ドル〜600万ドルの影響が出ると試算しています。

2027年について、XPLRは以下の通り予想しています。

• 調整後EBITDA：15億6,000万ドル〜17億ドル
• 成長投資前フリーキャッシュフロー：5億2,500万ドル〜6億ドル

予想の下限値には、風力資源の低下により調整後EBITDAに約3,200万ドル、成長投資前フリーキャッシュフローに2,500万ドルの影響が生じる可能性を織り込んでいます。経営陣は、これが主に2027年第1四半期に集中するエルニーニョ現象に伴い、風力発電量が約5.8%〜6%低下することを前提にしていると説明しました。

経営陣は、一部資産における生産税額控除（PTC）の適用期限切れが、2027年に予想される調整後EBITDA減少の主な要因であると説明しました。ただし、タックス・エクイティ構造が満期を迎えることで、プロジェクトのキャッシュフローに対するXPLRの取り分が増加し所有構造がシンプルになるため、この影響は一部相殺されます。

現在の見通しに基づき、経営陣は2028年の成長投資前フリーキャッシュフローが2027年と同水準になると見込んでいます。

リスクおよび注視事項

• 短期的な風力および太陽光発電量の変動は、特に単価の高い契約を結んでいる地域での発電量が落ち込んだ場合、発電量や収益に重大な影響を与える可能性があります。
• エルニーニョ現象により、2026年の残りの期間から2027年初頭にかけて風力資源が減少する可能性があります。
• 改定された2026年の見通しには、運用・保守費用の増加が織り込まれています。
• 生産税額控除の適用期限切れにより、2027年の報告対象調整後EBITDAが減少すると見込まれています。
• プロジェクトファイナンスコストの上昇および社債利息費用の増加は、引き続き成長投資前フリーキャッシュフローの逆風となっています。
• 長期的な業績は、運用・保守費用の抑制や契約最適化の機会を着実に実行できるかに一部依存します。

アナリスト質疑応答の主な要点

経営陣は、余剰な系統接続権について、現在はキャッシュを生み出さないものの将来的に収益化が可能なポートフォリオ上の組み込みオプションであると述べました。収益化の道筋としては、直接売却やネクストエラ・エナジー・リソースとの蓄電池共同投資などが含まれます。

特定のプロジェクトで留保された資金について、経営陣は、新たな支出の裏付けとなるものではなく、以前から計画されていた現場の制御システムおよび通信インフラのアップグレード費用に充当されると説明しました。

タックス・エクイティに関して、経営陣は2027年に予想される調整後EBITDAへの影響額が、リパワリングによる貢献や生産税額控除のスライド条項による相殺を含んだ純額であると説明しました。フリーキャッシュフローへの影響が抑えられているのは、サードパーティのタックス・エクイティ配分後にXPLRに留保される税額控除の効果のみを反映しているためです。

経営陣は、直近の西部地域における発電量の低下について、構造的な問題ではなく短期的な資源の変動によるものと位置づけました。長期的な見通しは概ね平年並みの天候を前提としていますが、足元の見通しには最新のエルニーニョ試算が織り込まれています。

決算説明会文字起こし全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the XPLR Infrastructure Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this event is being recorded.

I would now like to turn the conference over to Kanghee Jeon, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Kanghee Jeon

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our third quarter 2026 financial results conference call for XPLR Infrastructure. With me this morning are Alan Liu, President and Chief Executive Officer of XPLR Infrastructure; and Jessica Geoffroy, Chief Financial Officer of XPLR Infrastructure. Alan will walk through our business highlights, and Jessica will provide an overview of our financial results. After that, our executive team will be available to answer your questions.

On this call, we'll be making forward-looking statements based on current expectations and assumptions, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from our forward-looking statements if any of our key assumptions are incorrect or because of other factors discussed in today's earnings news release, in the comments made during this conference call, in the Risk Factors section of the accompanying presentation or in our latest reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, each of which can be found on our website, www.xplrinfrastructure.com. We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statements.

Today's presentation also includes references to non-GAAP financial measures. You should refer to the information contained in the slides accompanying today's presentation for definitional information and reconciliations of historical non-GAAP measures to the closest GAAP financial measure.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Alan.

Alan Liu

Thank you, Kanghee. Good morning, everyone. Since our last update, the XPLR team has continued to make progress across our key priorities. With repowering, execution remains on track. To date, we have completed approximately 85% of our planned repowerings for 2026. The remaining program is progressing and is expected to enhance the long-term value of our portfolio.

We also remain focused on our previously announced interconnection sales and battery storage co-investment agreement with NextEra Energy Resources. The first two joint ventures formed in July, and we'll continue to work on the remaining projects contemplated under the agreement. XPLR also completed the sales of approximately 400 megawatts of additional interconnection assets and rights to NextEra Energy Resources in August and October. Approximately 200 megawatts were sold in connection with the agreement with proceeds expected to fund a portion of XPLR's net equity investment in the four battery storage projects. Proceeds from the sale of the remaining approximately 200 megawatts are expected to support reinvestment in the underlying projects.

We continue to evaluate opportunities for monetization of interconnection assets and rights where they make economic sense. We view these transactions as an important example of the optionality embedded within our existing portfolio. We are leveraging existing interconnection assets and rights that are already part of our asset base to unlock incremental value and to redeploy capital across the portfolio, including to support reinvestment and incremental investment in storage, while maintaining a disciplined approach to capital allocation and balance sheet management.

We also continue to execute on our previously outlined financial plan by retiring the remaining approximately $33 million balance of our 2026 unsecured notes in October, leaving us with no remaining corporate debt maturities in 2026. Alongside this progress, we are seeing opportunities to enhance the value of our existing assets through contract optimization.

While we expect this opportunity to grow over time as more legacy contracts approach expiration, we are engaging with potential counterparties across multiple markets and evaluating opportunities to extend or optimize contracts where market conditions support attractive economics. We are seeing increasing interest in customers and beginning these discussions well ahead of contract expiration as they evaluate their longer-term power needs. We will remain disciplined in evaluating these opportunities. Our objective is not simply to extend contracts, but to pursue opportunities that can enhance the long-term economics and free cash flow before growth profile of the underlying assets.

With that, let me turn it over to Jessica.

Jessica Geoffroy

Thank you, Alan, and good morning, everyone. Let's turn to XPLR's detailed results. For the third quarter of 2026, XPLR's portfolio generated approximately $471 million in adjusted EBITDA and $164 million in free cash flow before growth.

Existing projects delivered a year-over-year increase of roughly $49 million in adjusted EBITDA and $24 million in free cash flow before growth, primarily reflecting more normalized wind resource compared with the prior year period and a favorable year-over-year comparison on net operating expenses. For free cash flow before growth, these benefits were partially offset by a decline in proceeds from tax equity investors and higher project financing costs related to the funding of our 2025 repowering program.

In addition, results for both adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow before growth reflect the impact of asset dispositions completed in September 2025. Free cash flow before growth was further impacted by higher corporate interest payments on the approximately $1.75 billion of unsecured notes issued in March 2025. Specifically, current quarter results reflect the full semiannual interest payments on those notes, whereas the payments in the prior year comparable quarter included only partial period of related interest expense.

Turning to our financial expectations for 2026. As we approach year-end, we have greater clarity on our full year outlook. We now expect full year adjusted EBITDA to finish in the lower half of our prior guidance range and full year free cash flow before growth to come in at or near the low end of the prior guidance range. There are a number of factors impacting our updated outlook for this year. While average wind and solar resource has been strong across the fleet overall this year, it has been weaker than expected in the West region. Unfavorable generation in the West creates more significant energy revenue reduction because the region contains higher value PPA contracts on a dollar per megawatt hour basis.

Looking to the balance of the year, our outlook also reflects expectations for at least 3% lower wind resource related to El Niño weather conditions. As a reminder, a 1% deviation in wind production across the fleet equates to $4 million to $6 million of adjusted EBITDA for the balance of 2026. In addition, we have incorporated slightly higher expectations for net operating and maintenance expenses for the rest of the year.

Today, we are also introducing our financial expectations for 2027. We expect adjusted EBITDA of $1.56 billion to $1.70 billion and free cash flow before growth of $525 million to $600 million. In establishing these ranges, we have considered a range of potential resource outcomes. The lower end of the ranges contemplates the potential impact from lower wind resource related to El Niño weather conditions anticipated in the first half of next year.

The primary driver of the expected step down in adjusted EBITDA for 2027 as compared to 2026 is the expiration of tax credit eligibility for certain assets within the existing portfolio. The anticipated roll-off of production tax credits reflects the normal maturation of our renewable energy portfolio. These credits were largely allocated to third-party tax equity investors, whose investments provided upfront financing for the projects. As the associated tax equity arrangements mature and investors achieve their targeted returns, we expect to benefit from simplified ownership structures and an increased share of project cash flows, partially offsetting the reduction in reported adjusted EBITDA.

For free cash flow before growth in 2027, the net expected impact from tax credit changes is roughly $25 million. This impact is less than for adjusted EBITDA because free cash flow before growth only reflects the portion of tax credit economics retained by XPLR and its unitholders after tax equity allocations. The year-over-year change in free cash flow before growth also reflects approximately $20 million higher net interest expense.

Looking ahead to 2028, based on our current outlook, we expect free cash flow before growth to be in line with 2027. Beyond that, we believe the underlying characteristics of the business support a durable free cash flow profile over the longer term, with several factors that could create upside from the existing portfolio. We anticipate continued benefits from investments under our existing capital plan as more projects come online.

The portfolio is also well positioned to capitalize on recontracting opportunities that we expect may emerge over the coming years. At the same time, delivering on this performance requires us to continue managing operations and maintenance costs and running the portfolio efficiently. As always, our expectations assume our usual caveats.

In summary, we continue to operate a large diversified portfolio of contracted infrastructure assets that generate meaningful free cash flow before growth. We are executing against the priorities we have previously laid out and are maintaining a disciplined approach to capital allocation and balance sheet management. Looking ahead, our focus remains on strong execution, maintaining financial flexibility, and pursuing opportunities that can enhance the long-term value of the portfolio for XPLR unitholders.

That concludes our prepared remarks, and we will now open the line for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Jefferies.

質疑応答

Anuhea Elliott

This is Anuhea Elliott on for Julien. So following the roughly 400 megawatts of interconnection asset and rights sale completed this year, could you just help quantify the remaining interconnection monetization opportunity across the portfolio? I guess, should we view these additional proceeds as recurring support for battery co-investments and project reinvestment? Or were these transactions more opportunistic?

Alan Liu

I appreciate that question. As we've noted before, XPLR owns multiple gigawatts of surplus interconnections, so we view these as embedded options within the portfolio. They are assets that don't generate cash today and can be over time monetized. And so we're going to continue to evaluate opportunities to monetize these where they make sense. As you've seen, we've demonstrated there's multiple pathways to monetizing them, including the battery storage co-investment opportunity that we've negotiated and collaborated with NEER. We've certainly pursued direct sales where that makes more sense. And so yes, we are going to continue to evaluate opportunities to monetize these assets.

Anuhea Elliott

Great. And then I guess my second question, for 2027 guidance, what brings you guys to the high and low end of the range, particularly with regard to what's assumed for the El Niño impact? You mentioned that you expect lower wind resources, but I guess any other color on the magnitude of that?

Jessica Geoffroy

Sure. It's Jessica. So for 2027, we did give specific sensitivities for lower wind resource on the El Niño front. So we incorporated into the lower end of the range for adjusted EBITDA, approximately $32 million potential impact and $25 million potential impact on the free cash flow before growth side. That equates to roughly 6% lower wind estimate that we have for El Niño in the first half of next year. In the first quarter. Sorry.

Operator

The next question comes from Nelson Ng from RBC Capital Markets.

Nelson Ng

Jessica, just to clarify, so on your El Niño assumptions, like obviously, you baked in some caution for Q4 of this year, but you're expecting from your guidance perspective that El Niño last from Q4 of this year through to Q1 and kind of stops there?

Jessica Geoffroy

Well, we said in the script, right, recall in my prepared remarks, we said in the first half of next year. The number that I quoted the $25 million is an assumption of roughly 5.8% lower wind resource concentrated in the first quarter of next year. Again, these are the best estimates we have at this time for both 2026 and 2027. The portfolio is subject to short-term resource variability, but those are the sort of best numbers that we have at this time in terms of estimate for El Niño impact.

Nelson Ng

Okay. Got it. And then next question just relates to the allocation of the proceeds from the interconnection sales. I know it's not a big number, but $12 million of the proceeds are being allocated to reinvestments in the underlying projects. Can you just clarify whether we should think of this as like organic growth CapEx? Or are you funding some like major maintenance or refurbishment that's needed in some of the underlying projects?

Alan Liu

Nelson, it's Alan. We had some planned upgrades to site controls and communications infrastructure at some of these projects. And so they were already in the plan. The opportunity that came up and to answer an earlier question, it was opportunistic to monetize the surplus interconnects at a attractive valuation. And money, once you've converted that option into cash, it's fungible. We're just planning on leaving the cash at the projects to offset the spending that was already planned.

Nelson Ng

Okay. Got it. And then just one last question. In terms of your guidance, like does the repowering plans and also, I know like the contract expirations are pretty limited in the next year or so. But does that have much of an impact on your guidance for next year? Or is it very incremental?

Alan Liu

In terms of the guidance, it's incremental, but we are bullish on this front. As we mentioned in the remarks, we are seeing traction in customer dialogue of people willing to engage with us on potential recontracting, reoptimization of the existing contracts well in advance of where the existing contract expires. So we're optimistic on this front. And so that we do think that there is incremental opportunity over the next couple of years.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Anthony Crowdell from Mizuho.

Anthony Crowdell

Just hopefully, two quick questions. One on the tax equity roll-off. You said maturing tax equity gives you a larger share of the project cash flows. So how much of the '27 tax credit hit does that offset? And does that offset grow in '28?

Jessica Geoffroy

Yes. It's Jessica. So if you take a look at that $170 million number on adjusted EBITDA for the 2027 guidance versus 2026, that's a net number. So that's not directly, "Hey, here's the eligibility roll-off specifically for tax credits that came off assets that were expiring from their 10-year period." It's inclusive of the offset on repowering contributions and PTC escalators. So the net impact on adjusted EBITDA accounts for that.

On free cash flow for growth, right, you have a smaller number and a small variability, but you have adjustments for PAYGOs that change as tax equities come off. And then as there are tax equity investors who are effectively bought out of the structure through the allocation of tax credits, then they no longer get that small share of cash flows from the projects that they were getting. So all of that is baked into the expectations in those categories that we've laid out.

Anthony Crowdell

Great. And then just, I think you may have already hit it just on the weak west wind and solar, I think hit your higher-priced PPAs in '26. Is that only weather? Or is there something structural that may impact on your '27?

Alan Liu

I think that was more recent experience in 2026 that Jessica was referring to, right? If you think about our assets in California and WECC, generally much higher PPAs and SVP contracts, right, or contracts. And so this is a reflection of the fact that in the short term, you're going to have variability and it isn't always a direct correlation of overall megawatt hours to how it reflects on revenue, right? It's kind of dependent on which region is impacted by the megawatt hours.

Again, short term, you'll see this variability over the long term, these things even out. And as we provide expectations going forward, generally, we're assuming normal weather. It's just that as we look at El Niño and the information we're seeing, particularly as we're getting up-to-date reports every week on kind of the balance of the year, we felt it was prudent to start to incorporate some of that into the expectations in the short term.

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session, and the conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.