P&G（PG）FY2027第1四半期決算説明会：オーガニック売上高4.0%増、ガイダンスを維持

要点

• P&Gの2027年度第1四半期のオーガニック売上高伸び率は4.0%となりました。出荷量が2.4ポイント、価格設定が0.4ポイント、製品ミックスが1ポイント超寄与しました。
• 全10の製品カテゴリーと全6地域すべてでオーガニック売上高が増加しました。主要地域では大中華圏が8%増で牽引し、新興市場が5%増、欧州が4%増、北米が3%増でこれに続きました。
• コアEPS（1株当たり利益）は2ドルとなり、前年同期比で1%増加しました。力強い生産性の向上は見られたものの、商品、エネルギー、輸送費のコスト増に相殺され、コア売上総利益率は150ベースポイント低下、コア営業利益率は80ベースポイント低下しました。
• 経営陣は、税引後コストの逆風の見通しを約14億ドルに引き上げたものの、2027年度通期の売上高伸び率見通し（1%〜3%）およびコアEPS伸び率見通し（0%〜3%）を維持しました。
• P&Gは上半期のオーガニック売上高伸び率を約3%と見込んでおり、下半期にはやや加速すると予想しています。経営陣は、四半期ごとの業績には引き続き変動が見られると警告しました。
• 第1四半期のフリーキャッシュフロー生産性は93%に達しました。P&Gは当年度中、100億ドル以上の配当と約50億ドルの自社株買いを通じて、株主に約150億ドルを還元する計画です。

主要財務データ

事業および業績の動向

ファブリックケア、ホームケア、ベビーケア、ヘアケア、スキン＆パーソナルケア、グルーミングの各部門は、1桁台半ばのオーガニック売上高成長を記録しました。ファミリーケア、フェミニンケア、オーラルケア、パーソナルヘルスケアは1桁台前半の成長となりました。

北米のオーガニック売上高は3%増加し、出荷量も3ポイント増加しました。米国におけるP&Gの主要顧客の70%以上がシェアを維持または拡大しました。これは2026年度上半期の10%未満、同下半期の50%と比較した数字です。経営陣は年内に80%以上を目指しています。

欧州は英国での1桁台後半の成長が牽引し、4%増加しました。欧州のファブリックケア売上高は5%増加し、直近3か月間の金額シェアは60ベースポイント上昇しました。米国のファブリックケアは4%増加し、北米の金額シェアは70ベースポイント上昇しました。

大中華圏のオーガニック売上高は8%増加し、これには5%の出荷量増加が含まれます。パンパースは競合他社の混乱の影響を一部受けて50%近く成長し、経営陣の試算によると、これが中国の成長率を約3パーセンテージポイント押し上げました。「SK-II」は13%増加し、ファブリックケアは5%増加しました。経営陣は、ベビーケアによる押し上げ効果がなくても、中国は1桁台半ばのペースで成長していただろうと述べました。

新興市場は5%増加しました。中南米は4%増加し、メキシコの2桁成長とブラジルの1桁台前半の成長が含まれます。IMETA（インド、中東、トルコ、アフリカ）は8%増加した一方、アジア太平洋新興市場は2%増加にとどまり、ポートフォリオ再編の影響に引き続き直面しました。

グローバルでのベビーケア売上高は5%増加し、シェアは80ベースポイント上昇しました。米国のベビーケアの売上高と出荷量はともに3%増加し、数量シェアと金額シェアの双方で改善が見られました。経営陣は「AMORE」の初年度売上高が1億ドルを超えると予想されていると述べました。

P&Gは、主要50のカテゴリー・国・地域の組み合わせのうち29でシェアを維持または拡大していると述べました。経営陣は、業績不振のカテゴリー・国・地域への対応作業が約60%完了したと推計しています。

業績見通し（ガイダンス）

P&Gは、2027年度の売上高伸び率見通し（1%〜3%）およびコアEPS伸び率見通し（0%〜3%）を維持しました。経営陣は、上半期のオーガニック売上高伸び率を約3%と見込んでおり、下半期にはやや加速すると予想しています。

この見通しには、主に中東紛争に関連する原材料、エネルギー、輸送費、その他のプレミアム費用による約14億ドルの税引後逆風が含まれています。この試算はブレント原油価格を1バレル＝100ドルと想定しています。コスト上昇が在庫や損益計算書に反映されるため、経営陣は第2四半期および下半期にこの圧力が大幅に強まると予想しています。

P&Gはまた、為替による約5,000万ドルの税引後逆風、純支払利息の約3億ドルの税引後増加、営業外収益の1億5,000万ドルの税引後減少を見込んでいます。原材料費・エネルギー等の投入コスト、為替、営業外項目の合計は、税引後利益で約19億ドルの逆風となると見込まれ、これは1株当たり0.79ドル、2026年度コアEPSの11%に相当します。

同社は、コア実効税率を20%〜21%、設備投資額を売上高の4.5%〜5.5%、フリーキャッシュフロー生産性を85%〜90%と予想しています。

経営陣は、100億ドル以上の配当支払いに加え、約50億ドルの普通株式の買い戻しを見込んでいます。同社は、継続的な事業投資と、記録的な生産性向上、構造改革によるコスト削減、イノベーションに連動した価格設定とのバランスを図る計画です。

リスクおよび注視事項

経営陣は、原油、原材料、エネルギー、輸送コストの継続的な高騰を主な利益圧迫要因として挙げています。第1四半期に反映されたのは予想されたコスト影響の一部にとどまる一方、第2四半期の製造コストはブレント原油1バレル＝約100ドルを前提としています。原油価格がこの想定を上回った場合、第3四半期および第4四半期に追加の圧力が生じる可能性があります。

燃料費やエネルギーコストの高止まりが続くなか、消費者需要も不確実性の要因となっています。経営陣は、世界全体のカテゴリー金額成長率を約2.5%〜3%（米国で約3%、欧州で約1%、新興市場で4%〜6%を含む）と説明したものの、消費者の回復力が一貫して続くとは限らないと注意を促しました。

また、出荷時期、小売店の販売促進イベント、在庫の動き、比較対象期間の影響により、四半期売上高が変動する可能性があります。P&Gは特に、欧州の販促イベントに関連する事前出荷や、前年同期における米国の在庫移動が、第3四半期の比較に影響を与える可能性があると言及しました。

なお、この業績見通しには、大幅な追加の通貨安、商品インフレ、地政学的混乱、関税、重大なサプライチェーンの分断、店舗閉鎖などは想定されていません。

アナリスト質疑応答の主なハイライト

営業レバレッジ：経営陣は、構造的レバレッジ強化の要因として、「サプライチェーン3.0」による自動化とデジタル化、非製造部門の人員15%削減計画を含む構造改革によるコスト削減、ブランド構築支出の効率化を挙げました。また、第1四半期はコモディティコストの影響が一部にとどまったことや、米環境保護庁（EPA）からの関税還付金第2弾として約9,000万ドルを得たことも寄与しました。

価格改定への対応：P&Gは単なる値上げに頼るのではなく、過去最高の生産性向上とイノベーションに連動した価格設定を活用する計画です。経営陣は、出荷量と顧客層の拡大を維持するため、価格変更は製品パフォーマンス、パッケージング、コミュニケーション、店頭での展開とのバランスを保つ必要があると強調しました。

下半期の加速：経営陣は、ファミリーケア部門が下半期にシェア成長へ回帰すると見込んでおり、ビューティおよびパーソナルヘルスケア部門にもさらなる可能性があるとみています。ただし、この見通しは消費者需要、かぜ・咳シーズンの動向、競合他社の動き、コスト状況などに一部依存します。

中国事業の持続可能性：経営陣は、6四半期連続の成長の要因として、流通の改革、ソーシャルファーストのマーケティング、オンラインおよびソーシャルコマースの展開、実店舗でのオペレーション、イノベーションを挙げました。第1四半期にパンパースが競合他社の問題から恩恵を受けたものの、P&Gは中国での広範な成長が「SK-II」やファブリックケアなどの他カテゴリーによって引き続き支えられていると述べました。

ソーンの統合：P&Gは、ソーン（Thorne）を築き上げた人材とケーパビリティを維持しつつ、海外展開、サプライチェーン、原料の認定、マーケティング規模の面でサポートを提供する方針です。経営陣は、ソーンをP&Gのオペレーションモデルに完全に統合するのではなく、ソーンのチームが引き続き事業を主導すると述べました。

決算説明会トランスクリプト全文

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決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to Procter & Gamble's quarter end conference call. Today's event is being recorded for replay.

This discussion will include a number of forward-looking statements. If you will refer to P&G's most recent 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K reports, you will see a discussion of factors that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these projections. As required by Regulation G. Procter & Gamble needs to make you aware that during the discussion, the company will make a number of references to non-GAAP and other financial measures.

Procter & Gamble believes these measures provide investors with useful perspective on underlying business trends and has posted on its Investor Relations website, www.pginvestor.com, a full reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures. Now I will turn the call over to P&G's Chief Financial Officer, Andre Schulten.

Andre Schulten

Good morning, everyone. Joining me on the call today are Gary Coombe and John Chevalier, our Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. I'll start with an overview of results for the first quarter of fiscal '27 and discuss the progress we are making against our near-term priorities and longer-term transformation efforts. I close with guidance for fiscal and then we will take your questions. We are pleased with the continued acceleration in top line results in our first quarter of fiscal year '27.

Bottom line results reflect the strength of the top line progress and productivity to offset the higher costs from raw materials, energy and increasing freight costs, primarily in North America. We expect these headwinds to increase in the next few quarters. Taken together, we remain on track to deliver within our guidance ranges for the fiscal year. Before I share the detailed results, you may have noticed in the press release, beginning this fiscal year, we will report sales growth to 1 decimal place at both the company and the sector level and with that, organic sales increased 4.0% versus the prior year.

We see sequential progress from our targeted interventions at the category and country level. By delivering superiority, we are winning with consumers and driving improved consumption semester over semester into this first quarter. Volume increased 2.4 points Pricing was up 0.4 points and mix was up over 1 point for the quarter, a solid balance across top line drivers and with the majority of growth driven by volume.

We delivered broad-based growth across the business with each of our 10 product categories growing organic sales. Fabric Care, Home Care, Baby Care, Hair Care, Skin and Personal Care and Grooming grew mid-singles. Family Care, Feminine Care, Oral Care and Personal Health Care each grew low single digits. Growth was also broad-based geographically, with each of our 6 regions growing organic sales. Focused markets were up 4%. Organic sales in North America grew 3% and the U.S. market also was up 3%.

And in North America, volume was up 3 points, driven by continued improvement in consumption across categories. We now have over 70% of our top U.S. customers holding or growing share, up from less than 10% in the first half of fiscal '26 and 50% in the second half of last fiscal year. Europe region was up 4% and with all key markets growing, led by high single-digit growth in the U.K.

Greater China organic sales grew 8%, continued strong growth in what remains a challenging consumer environment. Temps and SKI led the growth with SKI up 12% and Pampers up close to 50%, benefiting from near-term competitive dynamics. Enterprise markets in aggregate grew 5% for the quarter. Note, the makeup of enterprise markets has changed this fiscal year, now made up of Latin America, Asia Pacific Enterprise and our newly combined IMETA or India, Middle East, Turkey and Africa region. This change emphasizes the growth opportunity across emerging markets and creates a One Europe region structure to simplify the Europe operating framework.

Latin America organic sales grew 4%, led by Mexico, up double digits and Brazil up low single digits. Organic sales in the IMETA region grew 8%. APAC Enterprise was up 2% and still impacted by our portfolio restructuring impacts. Global aggregate market share is flat versus prior year across all time periods. 9 of our top 50 category country combinations held or grew share fiscal year-to-date, up from 25% in the second half of last fiscal year, also a reflection of the progress being made across the portfolio.

On the bottom line, core earnings per share were $2, up 1 point versus prior year. On a currency-neutral basis, core EPS was in line versus prior year. Core gross margin was down 150 basis points, and core operating margin was down 80 basis points versus prior year. Strong productivity improvement of 250 basis points was offset by commodity and freight costs in addition to demand creation investments. Currency-neutral core operating margin was down 90 basis points. Free cash flow productivity was 93%. We returned EUR 3.9 billion of cash to share owners in this quarter, EUR 2.6 billion in dividends and $1.3 billion in share repurchase. In summary, this was a strong start to the year, positive sales and share trends across markets Consistent with the semester to semester progress we expected behind the interventions being executed across categories, countries and customers.

As we move forward, the fundamental elements of our strategy remain unchanged. We are in the right categories to deliver against our growth goals. These categories are our core competency. We know how to grow these categories and win with superior innovation, better execution and clear communication. We know how to create value in these categories and we have a proven track record to fund growth via productivity.

We have an organization focused on delighting consumers and winning with our retail partners. What we are changing is nearly every part of our execution framework to identify superiority gaps even faster and respond quickly to change needed to product, package, communication, retail execution or value to ignite user growth of our brands. The adjustments we have made are starting to take hold. Let me share a few examples. U.S. Pantene abundant and strong, started with a deep insight and consumer connection.

More than 50% of women will experience noticeable hair loss in their lifetime. In the United States alone, female pattern hair loss affects approximately 30 million individuals. [ Tantan's ] abundant and strong technology grew from research linking scalp oxidative stress to poor scalp conditions and hair quality. This led to the development of Content bundle and strong collection with a pro vitamin complex proprietary formulation, Consumers are delighted with improvements in hair strength and less shedding with the light for fragrance and a tingling sensorial experience in the shower -- is delivering mid-single-digit sales growth in the U.S. and is growing share.

AMORE Plus Prestige has been a significant growth driver of our China Baby Care business with mid-teen growth consistently over the past 8 quarters. So we took the same consumer insight and brought the very best diaper available to the U.S. with the AMORE launch in the second half of last fiscal year. AMORE is our most advanced and premium diaper, combining proprietary skin health technologies and premium materials for superior protection and cashmere like skin comfort built on an engaging social-first brand building model and inspired by insights that fewer babies in each household means parents spend more per baby.

AMORE has been 1 of the most successful launches across multiple retailers, contributing to Pampers share growth and projected to exceed $100 million in sales in year 1. In the Gulf cluster, UAE, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain. The percentage of sales growing household penetration increased fourfold from 15% in fiscal '25 to over 60% in fiscal '26 despite the market volatility. Ferry Dish delivered double-digit growth in fiscal '26 into the first quarter of fiscal '27 after the team transformed how consumers engaged with Ferry.

They created a consumer-led user-generated content campaign that brought to life the toughest dishwashing moments, consumers face generating a record-breaking engagement at 20x our branded content benchmark. As a result, Ferry reclaimed its position as the market's leading equity brand and grew the category by 4 points and P&G's share by 2 points. The other examples we've discussed recently also continued to deliver strong results, including U.S. tight boosted and EVO Mexico fabric enhancers, Brazil Hair Care and U.S. Personal Care.

While we continue to execute our plans in the near term to return to sustainable growth, we're also making progress on a long-term reinvention of P&G capabilities to become what we call the CPG company of the future. We are adapting our capability, systems and organization structure to take advantage of significant growth opportunities we see across our markets. and overcome the external landscape changes impacting our industry. We are leveraging the deepest and most extensive consumer understanding in the industry driven by learning and data for millions of consumers.

This understanding leads to insights and signals that drive faster and better innovations, grounded in industry-leading research, development, modeling and testing capabilities. We have the strongest ability to authentically engage consumers building on our trusted and loved brands. We have widespread access to consumer path to purchase via strong retailer partnerships, and our supply chain is a differentiator where a resilient agile supply chain is critical to respond to global volatility and cost pressures. We have the highest output productivity program in the industry.

Winning with consumers is what matters and the companies that can best respond to the changing environment and leverage the fast evolving technologies and capabilities to follow the consumer closely are the ones that will truly lead the industry. We intend this to be P&G moving to guidance. As you saw in our press release this morning, we are maintaining our fiscal 2017 guidance ranges across organic sales, core EPS and free cash flow productivity.

We expect the environment around us to remain volatile and challenging from cost to currencies to consumer competitor retailer and geopolitical dynamics. Our all-in GAAP outlook now includes the Thorn business, which closed in early October. We continue to expect sales growth of 1% to 3%. We started the year above this range, but we expect growth to be volatile quarter-to-quarter due to base periods dynamics. Also, we'll be closely watching consumer demand as high fuel and energy costs persist into the fall and winter. As a reminder, our top line guidance includes roughly 30 to 50 basis points headwinds and from product and market exits that are part of our restructuring work. Our bottom line guidance is for core EPS growth of 0% to 3% versus prior year, and this equates to a range of EUR 689 million to $7.11 per share.

This outlook includes a cost headwind of approximately $1.4 billion after tax, driven by higher raw material, energy and transportation costs and other premiums resulting primarily from the conflict in the Middle East. This estimate assumes an effective Brent crude oil price of $100 a barrel. Due to the duration of higher oil prices, we now expect materially higher cost headwinds in Q2 and the second half of fiscal '27. We expect the foreign exchange headwind of approximately $50 million after tax. We also expect approximately $300 million of higher net interest expense after tax, around EUR 150 million higher due to the debt issuance related to recent M&A activity. These impacts start in the second quarter.

Finally, we still forecast $150 million after tax of lower nonoperating income. We now expect that our core effective tax rate will be in the range of 20% to 21%. We combined input costs, foreign exchange items below the operating line will be roughly $1.9 billion after-tax headwind of earnings in fiscal '27 or $0.79 per share 11% of fiscal '26 core EPS versus the $0.56 per share or 8% impact shared in July earnings call. We expect capital spending will be between 4.5% to 5.5% of sales. We are forecasting free cash flow productivity at 85% to 90% for the year. We expect to pay over $10 billion in dividends and to repurchase approximately $5 billion of common stock, combined a plan to return $15 billion of cash to shareowners in fiscal '20.

The guidance range reflects the continued acceleration towards our long-term algorithm. It is a balanced outlook between top line and bottom line despite significant cost pressures and reflecting current market realities for consumer demand. We will maintain strong investment in the business balanced by a strong productivity program with an intent to improve results semester by semester and year-by-year. This outlook is based on current market growth rate estimates, commodity prices and foreign exchange rates. Significant additional currency weakness, commodity cost increases, geopolitical disruptions, tariffs, major supply chain disruptions or store closures are not anticipated within the guidance range.

In summary, challenging markets, like the ones we compete in today are an opportunity for P&G to lead. We have the brands, the capability, and most importantly, the people required to win. We are confident in the short-term progress we are making behind deliberate plans to drive user growth of our brands and executional excellence across each category and country combination. It won't be a straight line, especially quarter-to-quarter and volatility will remain a near to midterm reality, but we are building momentum with consumers and customers, and we are excited about the long-term opportunities ahead. With that, we'll be happy to take your questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Lauren Lieberman of Barclays.

質疑応答

Lauren Lieberman

Great. We had to go back a ways in our model to find the last time that P&G posted volumes up more than 2% and organic at 4%. But when we found that time, which was back in in optically, margins are up a lot more this time around. And I was just curious if you could talk about if that's something specific to the quarter, mix dynamic, comp dynamics, or if something has changed structurally so that you're going to see much greater operating leverage at this level of volume growth?.

Andre Schulten

Lauren, thanks for the question. I think it's a combination of quarter specifics and structurals. Let me start with the structural maybe. When we see growth around 4% and volume growth at or above 2%. We've always seen leverage. I think that leverage structurally is increasing. Number one, on the cost of goods side, the level of productivity we're generating is increasing and the amount of automation and digitization is helping us as we talked for many times as we execute supply chain 3.0.

So there's operating leverage on the COGS side. The restructuring program, including the 15% headcount reduction in nonmanufacturing headcount is starting to impact the quarter this fiscal year. Recall, we started the execution last fiscal year, first semester, so we're starting to get impact flowing through the P&L, and that is helping our SG&A leverage. The third structural component as we transform our brand-building efforts to include the revised consumer path to purchase and drive engagement at every 1 of those touch points.

We remain fully invested in the business, but we find ways to make that spending work harder for us. So that's driving top line growth at flat spending and that is giving the third structural element of the leverage. I think what is more specific to the quarter is the fact that we've only seen partial flow-through of the commodity impact in the first quarter. Again, the oil price and petro complex keeps increasing.

So we've outlooked at $100 a barrel, $1.4 billion of after-tax impact. That's 8% for the year of earnings headwind. In quarter 1, we only saw a 5% headwind year-over-year. So that's a little bit of a onetime that will be correcting itself as we get towards the ongoing oil price impact through the P&L. And for sure, if oil stays at the levels that we saw this morning, north of 110 that will continue to be an increasing headwind for the year.

The last point I'll give you is we had the second part of the EPA tariff refund in quarter 1 of about $90 million. And so those are the 2 ones that are more specific to the quarter. I think most encouraging for us for the first 3, we truly drive leverage because we're improving the structural leverage within the P&L.

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Steve Powers of Deutsche Bank.

Stephen Robert Powers

Great. Good morning. Thank you very much. Andre, obviously, a very strong start to the year. I wanted to ask around the sustainability of the momentum that we've seen start to emerge from 2 perspectives. One is just very, very tactically in the short term as we think about this first semester in the December quarter, were there any shipment timing, competitive factors or other dynamics that may have materially flattered 1Q with the expense of 2Q in your mind? Just want to get underneath that, if I could. And then stepping back more generally, as you look at the underlying performance across your 10 categories, I think you said growth across all 10 where do you feel sustainable momentum is maybe best established versus where you feel there's still more work to do within those categories.

Andre Schulten

In summary, what I'd tell you is Q1 was a great start. Every region growing every category growing. And most encouragingly, if we look at the last few weeks, share is trending up consistently. So that gives me confidence. I'd still tell you we expect half 1 to be at about 3% organic sales growth. That's what we want to deliver that sequential acceleration semester by semester. You recall, have 1 of last year, 1 half 2. And we think the right estimate and the right approach for cadence here is 3% in the first half and then acceleration into the second half.

As you know, there's always a little bit of wobble between merge events of when they ship. That's been a little bit of an effect that we saw in Europe, for example. And so there might be a point shifting from 1 quarter to the other. But I think the overarching headline that I want you to take away is 3% for half 1 and slight acceleration in half 2, which means consistent value and volume share growth throughout the next quarters. I'm excited, quite frankly, about the progress we are making across each of the categories. I mean you look at Fabric and Home Care growing strongly, with North America now growing at 5% in Fabric Care. We're growing across laundry and we're growing across fabric enhancers and there's tons of runway.

Baby Care consistently growing at a global level. Even if you exclude the China acceleration, we have very strong results in baby, Femcare doing great adult incontinence, improving. Beauty Care at 5%, very strong and across all 3 segments within Beauty Care. So I could continue. But basically, you're getting the point. Every category is showing great progress and momentum.

I'll tell you, we're about 60% down the path of fixing each category country combination. We're running at 29 out of 50 top category country combinations growing or holding share. We need to conquer the rest, and that's the task ahead. I'll tell you, our beauty team is in content with 5% of growth. There's way more opportunity in that space that we need to capture. Family Care is not yet back to share growth. The interventions we are making across price point corrections in the club channel, the launch of Charmin and Bounty Essentials, all of those are pushing momentum in the right direction, but we haven't yet seen the share turn.

Our health care business has been impacted by a slow cold cut season over the last 2 years. We've now seen in the most recent couple of weeks in acceleration, if that holds, there's more growth to be had there. Don't get too excited. I come back to where I started, 3% in the front half, hopefully, a bit of acceleration in the back half consistent share growth quarter-over-quarter.

Operator

Yours' next question will come from the line of Dara Mohsenianof Morgan Stanley.

Dara Mohsenian

So Andre, you're expecting a pronounced level of commodity pressure this fiscal year of $1.4 billion and up another $100 million -- $400 million versus last quarter. Unfortunately, that's also looking more sustainable than we hoped originally after the run up earlier this year. So just in light of how severe the commodity backdrop looks, how are you thinking about pricing as an offsetting lever to that cost pressure.

And the context of the question is still seemingly difficult industry backdrop in theory with a weak developed market consumer, promotional competitive environment, even some retailer pushbacks. So just how do you weigh all those competing forces as you think about pricing in the remainder of the year and also the internal progress that you're making from a top line perspective that you just mentioned in response to Steve's question..

Andre Schulten

Dara. Yes, I think that's an important place to pause for a moment. Obviously, EUR 1.4 billion, 8% headwind is significant. And again, if we see the most recent development, this might increase for the year. We will deal with this the same way we always do. And I do feel that the team is well equipped to handle even the higher level of cost pressure. But it will take 3 things. It will take record productivity levels which we have identified. The project list is complete and sufficient and it's being executed across every 1 of our businesses.

So I feel very good about a sustained record level of productivity output that will help us overcome a good portion of this cost pressure while we maintain investment in the business. The second component is pricing with innovation. And honestly, I think the momentum we are starting to generate gives us confidence to price with innovation because we gain the balance between pricing and product improvements, patch improvements, claims, communication and retail execution right.

But it's also a very fragile balance that we want to make sure we don't compromise on. So we will price and we will price with innovation, not jeopardizing the top line momentum. The third component here is time. We will take the right amount of time to recover the dollar impact of the commodity hurt. And time will be largely driven by what we described in the second point, making sure we maintain the right balance of price, product, package, communication and in-store execution.

We have worked -- the team has worked so hard over the last 9 months category by category, customer by customer, country by country to improve this balance. So I think we're probably closer to this dynamic than we've been in a long time. I feel good about the plans that I see. The last point I'll leave you with at this level of commodity pressure, not a projection just the fact the industry generally is pricing up because there is no way to recover this level of commodity pressure PAUSE without pricing.

That's a fact of the past. It doesn't have to hold true for the future. So I can just only give you my perspective on the 3 welcome.

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Robert Ottenstein of Evercore ISI.

Robert Ottenstein

Great. And congratulations on the strong start. From everything we're seeing, clearly, a lot of the U.S. categories are improving, you're regaining share. But as you know, it's a very dynamic environment. So I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about what you're seeing or expecting in terms of competitor reactions? And then also, how are you dealing with ongoing affordability issues in terms of dealing with competitors as well as maintaining the market share momentum.

Andre Schulten

Thanks for the question, Robert. I think the competitive environment has been peers over the last few quarters. And I think that has led us to make adjustments where we needed to make adjustments -- we've talked about our Baby Care business where we needed to get value competitive with the new competitive reality. And I think we've done that, and I feel very good about being balanced. I think we got to a point where we reacted to be competitive on those hygiene factors, I would call them. And then add superiority in terms of product performance, communication, better retail execution to drive category growth and our growth within that. So I still see the same formula playing out growth going forward is not about taking share.

Growth going forward is about growing our categories. And I'm encouraged to see that in North America, the category is now approaching 3% value growth. In many places, innovation that we're launching with pricing is driving true category growth. You heard our examples in the prepared remarks on user growth, for example, in the Middle East, that topic of consistent user growth or penetration growth in our categories is relevant and being pushed around the world.

So I view the competitive dynamic as unchanged and yes, intense. I view our role within that as growing categories with innovation, better offerings for consumers. Affordability within that is that careful balance that we were describing in every pricing decision. And I think also here, we are executing what we have designed for we have a portfolio of brands that spans across different value tiers and we have a portfolio of tech sizes and executions within each brand that go from very affordable value offering to high tax size premium offerings depending on the cohort depending on the channel.

And I think we're continuously getting sharper in the execution. My favorite example was the Sharman and Bounty Essentials execution. When we came out of COVID, we deprioritized that part of the business simply because we didn't have the capacity. And when we went into this period, we said we need to reignite user growth in that part of the value segment within Family Care. The team redesigned the proposition, adjusted the value, redesigned the packaging and the proposition is working extremely well, growing significant users.

At the same time, we're innovating at the higher end with a Sharminstrong innovation on wider sheets, which is very intuitive and very consumer relevant. We'll continue to do both. And I think we've made the investments over the last 9 months to get us into the right starting place, and now it's pushing forward from here with the balanced portfolio execution and again, carefully watching value equation at each part of our portfolio.

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Bonnie Herzog of Goldman Sachs.

Bonnie Herzog

All right. I had a question on Baby Care. It's encouraging to see the sequential acceleration in growth this quarter. And then you highlighted North America and China as key drivers. So I guess against the backdrop of increased promo intensity in the U.S. and then disruption at 1 of your key competitors in China, what has been your strategy in Baby Care? And how sustainable do you think the recent improvements are.

Andre Schulten

Thanks, Bonnie. Global Baby Care is up. Top line is growing 5%, shares growing 80 bps. Baby Care in the U.S. is up 3% on sales volume and up both in volume share and value share. We have not yet addressed many parts of the portfolio. We have just launched the mid-tier upgrade, which will not be the last to get to superiority. We have not yet fixed our wipes business, and we have not yet launched the innovation that we want to launch on Swaddlers and some other parts of the premium portfolio.

We have fixed what I would call the hygiene factors, value versus close competition. And we are building on the trends that we see as the future growth engine for this category, which is less babies mean more spending per baby. And that holds true in every part of the world, and it holds true in the U.S., it holds true in China. And when we launch truly superior propositions that feed into what the premium consumer is looking for, superior dryness, softness, premium materials safety on the highest level, ingredient safety.

We win, and that's why a more ores going to $100 million brand in a few quarters. And I think that will be the success model for the future. China has been doing this now for 8 quarters. The mid-tier is effectively not existent in China anymore. And even when I take out the most recent competitive issue in China, the business would have consistently grown in high teens and low 20s. So I do believe that the model is very sustainable that the strategy of being superior and trading consumers up as we are doing on tape diapers.

It's the same model we can apply on pants, the same model you can apply on wipes. And I do think that is a solid growth path for the business. And I'm excited about the innovation that's coming, and I think that does exactly that.

Operator

Your next question will come from Filippo Falorni of Citi.

Filippo Falorni

I wanted to ask about the U.S. business, Andre. You mentioned 70% of top U.S. customers holding or growing share that's a significant improvement, as you called out versus last year. Where do you think it's coming mainly from like -- and how much more do you have to realize in the balance of the year within your guidance, what are you assuming in terms of improvement in share.

And then in terms of the gap relative to consumption, last year, you had a lot of volatility, a lot of quarters where shipments were below consumption. This quarter, it seems to have closed quite more. How should we think about that gap from an inventory gross to net sales levels as we think about the balance of the year?

Andre Schulten

Filippo, thanks for the question. I think the answer to the first question is more, we are where we said we would be. We wanted to be -- at the end of the year, we want to be north of 80% end of the calendar year that is. And I think we're -- the North American team is working towards that objective. The recipe doesn't change where we don't grow users, we very quickly go into diagnosis mode, and we're very quickly in a combination of the customer, the customer team on the P&G side, the category team develop an action plan.

And we fund that action plan when it cannot be funded within the category commitments. And that cycle time is only improving. We're having these conversations in a structural way every quarter, but we're having them at how almost every week. So I feel good about the urgency. I feel very good about the clarity of being consumer-led in those conversations because the secret here is not to try to buy more share. The secret here is to tailor the adjustments to superiority to the specific needs of that retailer shopper, be it price points, be it claims, be it part of the portfolio that we present at the retailer.

That will continue. Again, our objective that we stated before is 80% by the end of the calendar year. Inventory dynamics, you said it, the base period is going to be the source of volatility here. As you know, we had a significant inventory shift in quarter 3 in the U.S. that will impact this quarter 3 as well. But we'll have to see how the flow of promotion events, how the flow of innovation evolves.

I feel confident in the semester guidance that we just gave you, 3% organic sales in the front, a little bit more in the back half. Quarter-by-quarter, this might shift a little bit because of those dynamics. But I feel confident in 3 and 3 plus front half, back half.

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Chris Carey of Wells Fargo Securities.

Christopher Carey

Question. Andre, I just wanted to clarify that last statement and then I have a follow-up. Just regarding the fiscal Q2 deceleration despite the easier compare. We need to think about a roughly 1-point shift in Europe and then it sounds like you're just more broadly assessing strength of consumer as we get into the end of the calendar year, given the higher inflation backdrop, is that really the premise of just embedding that deceleration for now into fiscal Q2?

And then just from a category perspective, I think this is the best Fabric Care top line growth we've seen in a few years. Can you just give us a bit of context on category growth rates globally and perhaps some of the market share dynamics that are underway, most specifically in the U.S. and Europe, given some of the innovation and competitive activity you've seen in those regions?

Andre Schulten

Thanks, Chris. I think you answered your first part of the question. I think it's exactly that. Look, gas prices are continuing to come up. midterms and related outcomes in the Middle East are still a source of significant volatility going into quarter 2 base period dynamics, inventory shifts. So you put it all together, we don't want to get ahead of ourselves. We think 3% is a healthy growth rate within this context. And we know there's volatility quarter-over-quarter. So we want to be realistic in assessing the strength and straight line of the underlying momentum. The strength is real, but it won't be a straight line. Fabric Care, specifically, you're right. In the U.S.

Fabric Care business is growing at 4%. So strong results. In Europe, we're growing 5%, and we're growing share in both regions. North America share -- value shares up 70 bps, Europe value share is up 60 bps over the last 3 months. and also the 2 largest markets in Fabric here. Fabric enhancers are growing, and the laundry part of the business is growing. So it's consistent across the portfolio. And if you look at what is driving it, the innovation, I think the improvements we're making in delivering superiority EVO, the Tide liquid, boosted innovation -- we innovated on gain, both on liquid and on unit dose, and that's driving growth.

We have innovation on fabric enhancers, the Lux edition, that's driving growth. So I think, again, the return to a consumer-centric assessment of superiority, are we growing users. If we're not growing users, what are the right interventions have led the fabric teams both in Europe and in North America to make the right calls and I think those calls are playing out in growth. And I feel good about the type of growth we're generating slightly ahead of market.

But every one of these initiatives is growing the market, given the premium of game, the premium of Tide, the premium of EVO, it's actually expanding the category by delighting the consumer at each value tier more than anybody else.

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Nik Modi of RBC Capital Markets.

Nik Modi

One. Andre, maybe you can just peel back the onion on China. There's been a lot of macro volatility, a lot of commentary that the macro backdrop remains poor. I think you made the same comments. But the business is doing really well. So I just wanted to kind of understand exactly like what's going on? Is this a beauty specific thing? Any context would be helpful.

Andre Schulten

Sure. Thanks for the question, Nik. Let me start by stepping back for a second. The China business has been strong for 6 consecutive quarters now. Why? Because the China team coming out of COVID, I think we're the first 1 to realize that the structures in the market have changed from strong consumer demand to market decline, -- all parts of the business were shifting towards digital and social, and retailer interactions were very different, and the traditional distributor system didn't really work.

So they adjusted every part of that equation completely reinvented the distributor network, built a social-first marketing machine, built an execution machine that could deal with the social selling channels and online retailers and, at the same time, strengthen brick-and-mortar execution and strengthened the innovation machine. All of that together, I think, has led to a well-equipped team that is executing brilliantly, and that's been driving 6 consecutive quarters of sales growth and now delivering 8% in quarter 1 with 5% volume growth.

In terms of categories, let me get the obvious 1 of the way. Baby Care has been consistently growing at around 20%. In quarter 1, now it's growing almost 50%. And that's obviously driven by the competitive issue that existed in the market, which is driving a ton of trial for Pampers. And I think the team is doing brilliantly in keeping up with the trial machine and then ensuring that we can retain those users over time. But yes, we've benefited somewhat about 3 points. So if you take that out, that China would still be growing at the 5% that it has been growing, so mid-single digits.

The rest of the portfolio is also doing well. SK-II growing 13%, fabric up 5%, Samca up 9, Hair care is up but we also still have significant opportunities. So our a business in China, for example, is in the middle of reinvention. It's not growing. We need to get it back to growth, similar to North America.

Those interventions are underway. So we're not firing on all cylinders yet. But we're very happy with the China structural progress, and I have very high levels of confidence that we will fix the remainder of the portfolio and see even more sustained growth in China in a difficult market because market growth is still below 100 in our channels and categories. And quite frankly, consumer sentiment is not improving. So a big congratulations to the China team for winning in a tough environment.

Operator

Your next question will come from Peter Galbo of Bank of America.

Peter Galbo

Andre, I know we've covered a lot on the call, but maybe just wanted to follow up back on Dara's earlier question, particularly around the cost environment, just given that you did raise the input cost outlook I just wanted to assess, I mean, based on your commentary, clearly, we're tracking towards, I think, the higher end of organic sales range based on the outlook you provided.

But just like what's your confidence level still in at least achieving the midpoint range on EPS just given the elevated cost environment? It seems like you were still relatively confident in it, but I just wanted to clarify that.

Andre Schulten

Thanks, Peter. Sorry, I don't want to evade your question, but the confidence I have is that we'll be in the range. We're in the range Hey, it's 1 quarter. So give us a bit of time to solidify the top line momentum. Give us a bit of time to get our hands around the commodity impact, pricing plans, productivity. And that's why we're reiterating the range. So I'm confident in the range but we'll need time to figure out where that range will end up.

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Peter Grom of UBS.

Peter Grom

So I wanted to just ask a follow-up on the inflation. So Andre, you touched on the fact that it was a 5% headwind in 1Q, but expect it to be an 8% headwind for the year. Can you unpack how you see that phasing based on where things stand today? And then you mentioned the team is well equipped to handle this higher inflation. But as we think about productivity and pricing -- are there any quarters where you would expect to see a greater gap between those offsets relative to the inflation that could result in more outsized profit pressure.

Andre Schulten

Yes. Thanks for the question, Peter. Let me carefully circle this one. So the -- yes, quarter 1, obviously, COGS reflect a lower input cost right, with inventory holding and those effects. So that's why you see 5%. Quarter 2 has been produced at $100 a barrel. So when I look at a reflecting $100 a barrel, my assumption of IOU would be that flows through in quarter 2. Oil at 113 means more is coming in Q3 and Q4. For Q3 and Q4, we have more time to react. For Q2, we have little, so I'll leave it at that.

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Andrea Teixeira of JPMorgan.

Andrea Teixeira

And Andre, you spoke about like the pricing phasing and the costs. So should we assume, with the comments you just made now that you be negotiating with retailers at some point given this outlook and given that you've been helping in a way of just 40 basis points of pricing, realization. Is that something that we should be thinking as you progress the quarter? And then thinking about how you gave this guidance and reiterated this guidance. I'm assuming in the guidance, you did not include the pricing that you alluded to that potentially being negotiated.

So I would just want to double check on that. And then in terms of the phasing of productivity, you had this 250 basis point improvement in the operating margin. How we should be thinking of the phasing as we go through the balance of the year?

Andre Schulten

Andrea, look, I really won't be able to tell you more about future pricing. Obviously, I can't announce pricing, and I won't announce pricing in any way, shape or form. The only thing I'll leave you with is we price with innovation. Innovation is generally timed with modular resets. So you kind of get the drift here. On productivity, we've delivered about EUR 500 million, EUR 550 million BT productivity in Q1. And we delivered EUR 2.8 billion last year.

So again, I think I would expect a similar run-up in terms of productivity generally. We get heavier on productivity in the back half. And I think you should expect the same. I don't see that pattern changing.

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Kevin Grundy of BNP Paribas.

Kevin Grundy

Congrats on the strong results. Andre, can we zoom out, I guess, a bit? And maybe just talk about industry growth. which despite all the discussion about pressure on the consumer, it seems like the consumer is still fairly resilient and the category growth really hasn't changed dramatically at this point. So maybe you can just sort of comment -- take us around sort of key geographies and comment broadly on industry growth.

And just reaffirm my understanding that really in key geographies were relatively little changed relative to your fiscal -- or fiscal results, excuse me, just a few months ago. So thank you for that.

Andre Schulten

Thanks Kevin. You're right. In aggregate, the consumer is resilient -- we see 2% to 3% -- 2.5% to 3% value growth across our categories globally, and that is unchanged, maybe a little bit better than what we saw and reported last quarter. We see improvements in the U.S. So we talked about 2% last quarter. We're running up to 3% now in terms of value growth. We'd like to think that we are part of that acceleration as we launch innovation, and we drive growth in our more premium lineup. We see enterprise markets continuing to grow strongly in the 4% to 6% range, maybe accelerating to 6 to 7 million in the most recent reading, so those consumers are holding up well.

And Europe continues to be stable but muted at about 1%. So you put it all together, there's a little bit of positivity here, 1 in the U.S., upwards to 3%. And I think enterprise markets represent a huge opportunity for us. And that's why we are talking about user growth and the progress we're making on user growth in the Middle East. Our user growth in India is actually fantastic. So we're really encouraged about both the market conditions but also our ability to drive further market expansion and consumer development penetration here in those regions.

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Kaumil Gajrawala of Jefferies.

Kaumil Gajrawala

Andre, everybody I'm still struggling, I guess, to reconcile your commentary versus your guidance. It sounds like interventions are working. It sounds like shares are moving in the right direction. It sounds like accelerations across a bunch of these. And your comparison, I think, in every division, with the exception of health care gets easier, not harder.

And so other than I know you had mentioned macro and that sort of thing, are there any real business reasons. Do you expect such a deceleration into the second quarter versus the first quarter, given everything that you've said about how the initiatives are working across the different divisions. The consumer is the key variable here. Look, we're looking at fuel prices, gas prices around the world that are creating turmoil. You look at France, -- you look at the conversation in the U.S.

So there's clearly pressure on the consumer in the short term. And so far, the consumer has held up. We don't know if that's going to continue. There's a bull case to be made, but there's a bear case to be made here. So we want to be straight in the middle. That's why we come back to 3%. There are some pre-shipment to merge events, specifically in Europe that I mentioned.

That is part of the balance between Q1 and Q2. And all we want to avoid if you're getting ahead of yourselves in terms of straight-line projections. Yes, I think we feel very good about the elements we control, we feel very good about the progress we're making in our brands. And if the consumer holds up and there's no other disruptions, could we see improvement on the top line?

Andre Schulten

Yes, we could. But there's too many moving pieces right now. PAUSE to confidently tell you that, that's going to happen in quarter 2.

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Olivia Tong with Raymond James.

Olivia Tong Cheang

Andre, clearly, a nice start to the year. So just building on some of your earlier comments, can you talk about how you expect demand to evolve on a category level from here? And how much of that second half potential acceleration you're planning for is based on category improvement versus your own initiatives? And I realize that those are obviously very much related. But we talked about some of the interventions in tissue towel, earlier. What about other categories? And your thoughts on what you've learned from the interventions you've already done and the competitive response to that and how that might influence the next phase of execution. And thanks for the extra decimal on revenue growth.

Andre Schulten

Thanks, Olivia. Look, I'll say high level here. Category-wise, we continue to expect 2.5% to 3% value growth in our categories. We will make progress on those categories where we're not yet fully recovered. And clearly, our objective is to get to share growth in every 1 of our global categories. We clearly expect family care to return to share growth in the second half. We are working hard to accelerate beauty even further, and we hope for a great cold cost season, if I can say it that way. So those are the 3 most acceleration prone categories in the back half.

On the rest of them, I think steady as she goes, Baby Care has to retain the trial we're generating in China and making progress with innovation in the second half. I feel good about that. Same for me. And we have a very robust plan on Fabric Care to maintain. And I can only repeat 1 more time, it won't be a straight line. Competitive environment was mentioned. That's very valid, consumer volatility very valid, supply chain disruption, cost, pricing, very valid. So the things we control are all in control.

There are many things that impact our short-term results that we don't fully control. That's why we maintain the range.

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Robert Moskow of TD Securities.

Robert Moskow

Andre, you've talked about the strategy and the rationale for buying Thorne a couple of months ago. But I wanted to clarify a little bit more. Thorne has some aggressive growth objectives over the next couple of years. To what extent does Procter help enable that, I think the plan is to have it run separate from Procter's operations. And then in addition to that?

What are you doing to make sure you retain the people who made Thorne so successful over the last couple of years?

Andre Schulten

Thank you, Robert. I will only give you the headlines. I think this will be a perfect conversation to have with Paul at our Investor Day, and he's certainly more equipped to talk about it than I am. But at the core, job #1 is to retain what made Thorn a successful brand within the VMS space.

And Paul is 100% focused on that. The people who built this business are fantastic and fantastically equipped to continue to do so. And we certainly have every intent to retain their knowledge and their capabilities.

Where do we add? I think we can add in international expansion because this brand and the benefit space is relevant not only in the U.S. but way beyond the U.S. and Thorne has proven that by shipping and launching in parts of the world. We can help by scaling Thorne once ready across different categories. At the time is not now, the time is later.

And I think we can help where needed by the team in terms of capabilities, supply chain capabilities, ingredient qualification and marketing scale and marketing support. I think the principle Paul will bring you towards is we let the Thorn team lead us. So this is not P&G integrating Thorn. This is thorn leveraging P&G to maintain what is at its core and leverage where we can complement.

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Edward Lewis of Rothschild & Co Redburn.

Edward Lewis

Just 1 for me, Andre. Just wondering, you made quite a few changes in terms of the international or I think, more developing market category country combinations over the past 12 months. You're clearly sounding more positive about the outlook in those markets relative -- in your commentary just now. Just wondering how much have they helped the changes you made? How much did they help that international performance and your international outlook?

Andre Schulten

Thanks, Ed. I think it's still early. I wouldn't attribute the -- I wouldn't attribute the majority of the progress in enterprise markets. So the structure change only went into fly -- but I do attribute a lot to the intentionality that Charles and others and our sector CEOs put on growth in those enterprise markets. Putting India into a separate cluster from the rest of the Asia, Middle East, Africa region increases intentionality to grow. Combining Turkey into that cluster helps. And I think we will see even more potential as we focus on user growth in each of those clusters.

The second component clearly is Europe today is basically 1 big focus market. The retailer structures are similar, the go-to-market and consumer structures are similar. So simplifying the go-to-market approach in Europe was another key component here. Honestly, what gives me confidence is the leaders we have in each of those businesses, the commitment of the sector CEOs and, quite frankly, the fact that even with the restructuring impact that we're seeing in the current quarter, we're seeing mid-single-digit growth, which if you take the restructuring out would be even higher. So I think we're on the right trajectory here.

Operator

Your final question will come from the line of Michael Lavery of Piper Sandler.

Michael Lavery

But just 1 follow-up to your answer to, I think it was Peter's question about how just the second half you'd have more time to react to higher oil prices. You're obviously pushing restructuring and savings or productivity and savings already quite aggressively. You've been clear how you price with innovation. I guess maybe could you just elaborate a little bit on what levers you would focus on and push harder to offer some mitigation and maybe what expectations for mitigation might be baked into your outlook as well?

Andre Schulten

Everything we know is baked into the outlook. -- again, there's always a balance between commodity input costs and how hard you want to drive productivity within the year. There's always a way to pull forward things or to push out depending on whether it's needed or not needed. There's always time to adjust pricing with innovation, the ability to pull forward innovation or push it out. So those are the components that we'll manage again, all of the gives and takes are the reason we have the range.

So -- but more time basically allows us to shift productivity, shift pricing and innovation, and that's really the flexibility that we have in the second half -- and as you can imagine, within the current quarter, that flexibility is limited on those levers.

Okay. I want to thank you for your time. Again, we had a reasonably good start to the year. We are excited about the progress the teams are making around the world, which is consistent and grounded in the interventions that we wanted to make. They are showing signs of holding, sticking and delivering results. It's going to be a volatile right. So I just want to bring us all back to reality. One quarter makes no upper end of the guidance range for the year. We still have a lot of work to do, but we're excited about where we are.

We want to remind you quickly that Investor Day is on November 19. Shales and the broader executive team will be there and we can go much deeper into the long-term transformation that is happening at P&G to build what we call the CPG company of the future. We hope to see you there and welcome you at our global headquarters next month. Thank you for your time.

Operator

That concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.