スミス＆ウェッソン（SWBI）2027年度第1四半期決算説明会：売上高は32.3%増加

主要なポイント

• 2027年度第1四半期の売上高は、ポリマーピストル、モダン・スポーティング・ライフル（MSR）、レバーアクションライフルなどの好調な出荷に支えられ、前年同期比32.3%増の1億1,260万ドルとなりました。
• 調整後EBITDAは86%増加し、希薄化後EPSは前年同期の0.08ドルの赤字から0.06ドルへと改善しました。
• スミス＆ウェッソンは市場全体を上回る成長を見せました。調整後NICSが7.7%増加したのに対し、総出荷量は20%近く増加しました。経営陣は、これが継続的な市場シェアの拡大を反映していると述べました。
• 売上総利益率は280ベーシスポイント拡大して28.7%となりましたが、改善のうち260ベーシスポイントは290万ドルの関税払戻金によるものです。
• 経営陣は2027年度第2四半期の売上高が前年同期比で約10%増加すると見込んでおり、2027年度通期の売上高成長率の見通し（約5%〜7%）を維持しました。
• 社内在庫は秋冬の商戦に向けた準備により前四半期の1億5,600万ドルから1億8,100万ドルへ前四半期比で増加したものの、前年同期の2億300万ドルを下回る水準を維持しています。

主要財務データ

事業および業績の動向

スポーツ用品チャネル向けの拳銃（ハンドガン）出荷台数は17%近く増加し、調整後NICSの約5%増を上回りました。流通在庫は横ばいであり、経営陣はこれが健全な小売売れ行き（セルスルー）と市場シェアの拡大を示していると説明しました。拳銃の平均販売価格は前四半期比で横ばい、前年同期比では約9%上昇し、限定的な販促活動と堅調な需要を反映しています。

長銃（ロングガン）の出荷台数は22%近く増加し、調整後NICSの10%増を上回りました。スミス＆ウェッソンの長銃の流通在庫は5,000丁減少しました。成長を牽引したのはMSRで、州レベルの規制変更に先立つ需要も一部寄与したほか、「1854」レバーアクションライフルの出荷量は前年から倍増しました。

長銃の平均販売価格は、好調なプロダクトミックスに支えられ、前四半期比で11%近く、前年同期比で18%以上上昇しました。当四半期の総出荷量のうち、新製品が35%を占めました。

同社はまた、法執行機関向けおよび海外市場における出荷量が2桁台後半の伸びを記録したと発表しました。経営陣はプロフェッショナル向けチャネルの勢いの一因として、スミス＆ウェッソン・トレーニング・アカデミーへの投資を挙げており、年度後半に向けて堅調なパイプラインを有していると述べました。

ディストリビューター在庫量は、数量ベースで前四半期比6.8%減、2025年7月末比で3.5%減となりました。経営陣は、流通在庫が第2四半期の業績に与える影響は中立的であると見込んでいます。

経営陣の見通し（ガイダンス）

経営陣は、生産吸収の改善により第2四半期の売上総利益率が向上すると見込んでいますが、出荷量連動費用やインフレコストの増加により一部相殺されるとしています。営業費用の増加見通しは、顧客関連費用や運賃コスト、継続的なR&D投資、および業績連動報酬の増加を反映しています。

同社は、州の規制変更が第4四半期の業績を特に押し上げた前年度と比較して、2027年度の成長はより安定したものになると述べています。経営陣は、プロダクトミックスと限られた販促活動に支えられ、現在の平均販売価格水準が維持されると見込んでいます。

リスクと今後の注視点

• 前年同期比での売上総利益率拡大のほぼすべてが関税払戻金によるものであり、サプライヤーコスト、人件費、出荷量連動費用の増加が引き続き圧迫要因となっています。
• 第1四半期の営業キャッシュ・アウトフローが増加したのは、純利益の増加が在庫の積み増しや業績連動報酬の支払いに相殺されたためです。
• 計画されている4,500万〜5,000万ドルの設備投資額は、スプリングフィールドへの投資や高度製造イニシアチブにより、同社の過去の巡航速度（ランレート）を約2,500万ドル上回っています。
• 2027年度後半の前年同期比比較は、特にMSRに関して、前年度に州レベルの規制変更から得られた追い風の影響を受ける可能性があります。
• 流通チャネル内での在庫動向が存在するため、同社の出荷トレンドが調整後NICSの動向と直接連動しない可能性があります。

アナリスト質疑応答の要点

第1四半期の売上高が32.3%増となったにもかかわらず通期ガイダンスを据え置いた理由について問われ、経営陣は州の規制変更の追い風を受けて非常に好調だった前年度第4四半期を挙げました。同社は引き続き年間5%〜7%の売上成長を見込んでおり、今年度はより安定した成長パターンになると説明しました。

価格設定について、経営陣は長銃の平均販売価格の上昇が、プレミアムに位置づけられた「1854」ライフルを含む良好なミックスを反映していると述べました。ポートフォリオ全体で主要需要が堅調であるため、大幅な販促を行う必要性が低下しています。

プロフェッショナル向けチャネルについて、経営陣は過去12〜18ヶ月間に行われた投資が成果を上げ始めていると述べました。トレーニング・アカデミーや下半期の活発なパイプラインに支えられ、法執行機関向け販売の勢いが持続すると期待しています。

決算説明会 文字起こし全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Good day, everyone, and welcome to Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. First Quarter Fiscal 2027 Financial Results Conference Call. This call is being recorded.

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Kevin Maxwell, Smith & Wesson's General Counsel, who will give us information about today's call. Thank you. You may begin.

Kevin Maxwell

Thank you and good afternoon. Our comments today may contain forward-looking statements. Our use of the words anticipate, project, estimate, expect, intend, believe, and other similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements may also include statements on topics such as our product development, strategies, market share, demand, consumer preferences, inventory conditions for our products, growth opportunities and trends, and industry conditions in general.

Forward-looking statements represent our current judgment about the future and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by our statements today. These risks and uncertainties are described in our SEC filing, which are available on our website, along with a replay of today's call. We have no obligation to update forward-looking statements.

We reference certain non-GAAP financial results. Reconciliations of GAAP financial measures to non-GAAP financial measures can be found in our SEC filing and in today's earnings press release, each of which is available on our website. Also, when we reference EPS, we are always referencing fully diluted EPS, and any reference to EBITDA is to adjusted EBITDA.

When we discuss NICS results, we are referring to adjusted NICS, a metric published by the National Shooting Sports Foundation based on FBI NICS data. Adjusted NICS removes those background checks conducted for purposes other than firearms purchases. Adjusted NICS is generally considered the best available proxy for consumer firearm demand at the retail counter. Because we transfer firearms only to law enforcement agencies and federally licensed distributors and retailers and not to end consumers, NICS generally does not directly correlate to our shipment or market share in any given time period, we believe mostly due to inventory levels in the channel.

Joining us on today's call are Mark Smith, our President and CEO, and Deana McPherson, our CFO.

With that, I will turn the call over to Mark.

Mark Smith

Thank you, Kevin, and thanks, everyone, for joining us today. As we expected, we are off to an excellent start to fiscal 2027 with strong first quarter performance. Continued solid demand for our products in both the consumer and professional channels in Q1 were a direct result of our purposeful focus on innovation, the strength of our industry partnerships, operational execution, and the power of the iconic Smith & Wesson brand.

We delivered significant year-over-year increases in all key financial metrics, including 32% in growth in net sales, 86% growth in adjusted EBITDA, and an increase in EPS to $0.06 from a loss of $0.08 last year. The firearm market continues to be solid, with overall NICS up 7.7% over our first quarter last year. And with our shipments up nearly 20% in the same time period, we once again outperformed, demonstrating that strong consumer preference for our leading product portfolio is driving sustained share growth and continued positive momentum into FY '27.

From a product line perspective, we gained share in both handguns and long guns in the quarter. Handgun unit shipments into the sporting goods channel increased nearly 17%, while NICS was up only about 5%. Importantly, and continuing the trend from FY '26, channel inventories were flat during the same period, indicating strong pull-through and meaningful share gains at the retail counter. This was driven by strong demand for our semi-auto pistols across the board, including our market-leading concealed carry products and new products within our full-size M&P lines.

Long guns also performed well in the quarter, with our unit shipments into the sporting goods channel increasing almost 22% well ahead of the 10% increase in NICS. And within the long-gun category, channel inventories of our products were actually down 5,000 units during the period, again indicating solid share gain at retail. Growth in long guns was led by the MSR category and weighted to May and June ahead of state level regulatory changes. But we also saw strong growth in our 1854 lever action rifles, with shipments doubling compared to last year. A great indicator of our increasing foothold in the hunting segment of the long gun market, where we have historically had limited exposure.

The breadth of our growth in Q1 was a further testament to our ability to react to market shifts through our flexible manufacturing model, consumer preference for our brand and innovative product line, and the strength of our relationship with industry partners. We had success not only across all of our product lines, but also across our customer segments. Within the consumer channel, we saw strong double-digit gains in wholesale, big box, and buying groups. In addition, we drove high double-digit growth in law enforcement and international shipments, a strong indication of professional endorsement of the product lines, and our full capabilities to service these brave men and women not only with our firearms, but with our world-class Smith & Wesson Training Academy, which continues to be a competitive differentiator.

Moving now to ASPs, we continued the trend of outperforming in unit shipments versus the broader market while simultaneously demonstrating resiliency in our pricing. Sustained demand for our core products throughout the period limited our need for promotions in the quarter, and combined with new products accounting for 35% of our shipments, our ASPs continued to move higher even in the typically slower summer months. Handgun ASPs held steady sequentially versus Q4, and were up nearly 9% year over year, while long-gun ASPs increased nearly 11% sequentially and over 18% year over year.

Finally, a quick few notes on inventory. As I mentioned earlier, channel inventories were flat and combined with our strong results indicate we continue to see healthy pull-through of our products at the retail counter. At the end of Q1, our internal inventory was $181 million, down from $203 million a year ago and up from $156 million at the end of Q4. The sequential growth reflects our normal seasonal build as we prepare for the busy fall and winter seasons, as well as restocking of long gun inventories following a strong Q4. Our disciplined sales and operations planning process, which aims to align production to forward demand across every product line, gives us confidence in our inventory position as we look to the balance of fiscal 2027.

Looking forward, we believe we are well positioned to continue gaining momentum as we move into the traditionally stronger second half of the year. Our award-winning product line is in high demand with both our loyal consumers and law enforcement and professional customers, as indicated by our shipments consistently outpacing the market and our growth in professional sales. We are making significant investments in our operational infrastructure to support our growth and drive further efficiencies. And we are well underway with installation of this new equipment in our machining center in Springfield, Massachusetts.

Our balance sheet remains strong, and we continue to deploy capital efficiently to drive long-term growth and stockholder value. And with this momentum, we expect our second quarter to significantly outperform last year on both the top and bottom lines, which Deana will cover in a few minutes.

In closing, this continues to be a story about brand strength paired with a purposeful long-term strategy. Our focus on innovation, marketing, strong partnerships, and operational excellence, and importantly, our team's relentless focus on execution across every function is what drives our outperformance. As always, I just want to note that none of this is possible without each and every member of our team across all functions working together towards making Smith & Wesson the number 1 firearms brand. I'm incredibly proud of all of them for their exceptional talent and dedication, always striving to exceed the expectations of our passionate and loyal customers.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Deana to cover the financials.

Deana McPherson

Thanks, Mark. Net sales for our first quarter of $112.6 million or $27.5 million are for 32.3% above the prior year on strong polymer pistol, MSR, and lever action shipments. During the quarter, inventory at distributors declined by 6.8% from the end of the prior quarter and 3.5% compared with the end of July 2025 in terms of actual units, indicating continued strong sell-through of our products at retail. Handgun ASPs remained sequentially flat versus Q4, but higher than Q1 2026 due to lower promotional spend during the current quarter and continued strong demand for our products. Long-gun ASPs increased sequentially and year-over-year due to a favorable mix.

Gross margin of 28.7% was 2.8% above the prior year, primarily driven by $2.9 million of tariff refunds, which accounted for 260 basis points of increased margin during the quarter. Increased absorption on higher production was almost entirely offset by higher volume-related spending, supplier cost increases, and increased labor costs, both from increased headcount and increased wage rates. Operating expenses of $28.1 million for our first quarter were $3 million higher than the prior year comparable quarter with legal expenses, profit-related compensation costs, volume-related increases in selling expenses and freight, and higher advertising costs driving the increase.

The higher revenue and associated margin, combined with a decrease in interest expense due to lower net debt, resulted in $2.6 million of net income, or $0.06 of EPS, compared with a $3.4 million net loss, or an $0.08 loss per share last year. Cash used in operations for the first quarter was $8.8 million compared with $8.1 million in the prior year due to higher net income being offset by a bigger increase in inventory and the payment of profit-related compensation. Because of increased demand during last quarter, internal inventory in certain product lines was depleted.

In addition, we generally build inventory during the first half of the fiscal year in order to level load our operations in preparation for the busy fall and winter season. We spent $11.9 million in capital projects this quarter, compared with $4.3 million last year, and continue to expect our capital spending for the year to be between $45 and $50 million. As a reminder, our capital spending this year is approximately $25 million higher than our historical run rate due to investments we are making in our Springfield facility, combined with advanced manufacturing initiatives at multiple locations. we paid $6 million in dividends and ended the quarter with $25.2 million in cash and investments and $40 million in borrowings on our line of credit.

Finally, our Board has authorized our $0.13 quarterly dividend to be paid to stockholders of record on September 17th with payment to be made on October 1st. Looking forward to our second quarter, we continue to expect a normal seasonal environment and strong demand for our products, resulting in anticipated sales for Q2 of roughly 10% above last year. With channel inventory continuing to remain at healthy levels, we don't expect inventory to have an impact, positively or negatively on our second quarter. For the full year, we continue to expect that our fiscal 2027 revenue will grow approximately 5% to 7% over FY '26.

We expect Q2 gross margin to be 200 to 300 basis points higher than last year's Q2 on increased absorption, partially offset by increased volume-related spending and inflationary cost increases. Operating expenses in Q2 will likely be 10% to 15% higher than in Q1 due to volume-related customer and freight costs combined with continued investment in R&D and increased profit-related costs such as profit sharing. Our effective tax rate is expected to be approximately 30%.

With that, operator, can we please open the call for questions from our analysts?

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Mark Smith with Lake Street Capital Markets.

質疑応答

Alex Ewig

This is Alex Ewig asking questions for Mark Smith. Q1 net sales grew 32% versus the 15% to 20% you guys guided in June. But the full year guidance, you guys kind of left unchanged at 5% to 7%. And Q2 is only 10% above last year. What drove this upside, and was it timing or pull forward from Q2? And what does the implied back half deceleration look like? Kind of projecting flat to down in the back half. And what does this kind of assume about demand?

Mark Smith

Thanks, Alex. So the growth this year, I'll just point you back to the full year. Yes, I mean, it's going to be a little bit more steady this year. I mean, I think last year, as you can see, it was a big Q4, and some of that was some of the state regulatory changes driving a pretty big Q4 for us, specifically on the MSRs. So this year, great, great start to the year with outperformance in Q1. And we just think this year it's going to be just a little steadier than it was last year, but at the end of the day, we kind of think of that as that's good news. It's steady growth. It's sustained market share gains and something that we, we can kind of really build on that momentum as we go into the back half of the year.

So it's still up significantly versus last year to 7% growth, pretty happy with that, and it's going to be smoother this year than it was last.

Alex Ewig

And then ASP on both handguns and long guns outpaced our expectations. How much of this is mix versus price increases this year? And do you guys expect ASPs to kind of remain at these levels moving forward?

Mark Smith

Yes, we've been pretty happy with the ASPs. I think kind of in Q1, as Deana covered on the long gun side, definitely mix. We're really happy with the performance of the 1854, which, as you know, is kind of the top end of the pricing hierarchy for us. So that was really good and continued proof that we're really gaining a nice foothold there in that hunting segment of the market, whereas according to prepared remarks, we historically kind of had a smaller presence. So a little bit of mix, but a lot of it also is really limited promotions. We've had pretty solid demand for our core line as well. And so Q1, I think, was a story. A little bit of mix, but a lot of, no need to participate to a meaningful degree in promotions and we do anticipate that that's those ASP levels will continue going forward.

Alex Ewig

And then professional channel units jump pretty sharp off of a relatively small base. What type of long-term opportunity do you guys see in that professional channel?

Mark Smith

Yes, we're really pleased with the performance on the LE side. The investments in the academy are really starting to pay dividends and a lot of the efforts we've been putting in over the last 12, 18 months really come into fruition. That's a longer sales cycle there with the professional channel. And so I think you're starting to see some of the results and some of those efforts come to fruition. So really starting to gain momentum there. We're pretty pleased there. We're continuing to invest in the academy, a lot of traction there with the law enforcement professional user community, and we expect that to continue. We have a lot in the pipeline, a nice pipeline, as we look to the back half of the year.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mark Smith for closing remarks.

Mark Smith

All right. Thank you, Operator, and thanks, everyone, for joining us today and your interest in the company and Smith & Wesson. We look forward to speaking with everybody again next quarter.

Operator

Thank you. This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect at this time, and thank you for your participation.