フラワーズ・フーズ（FLO）2026年度第2四半期決算説明会：第4四半期の安定化とコスト削減

フラワーズ・フーズ（NYSE: FLO）は、包装パンの需要低迷が続く中、2026年度第2四半期の業績が経営陣の予想を下回ったと発表しました。同社は第3四半期の売上高が前年同期比で減少するものの、第4四半期には安定化が進むと見込んでいます。

要点

• 第2四半期のフレッシュパンの販売数量は9.5%減少したものの、固定費負担の増加にもかかわらず、価格改定が売上総利益率の下支えに寄与しました。
• 経営陣は、新規ビジネス獲得の拡大や前年の価格改定との比較一巡に伴い、第3四半期の売上高は前年同期比で減少するものの、第4四半期の業績は安定化すると予想しています。
• フラワーズ・フーズは、ポートフォリオの課題解消や変化する消費者の嗜好に対応するため、ハーフサイズ食パン、サワードウ、タンパク質および食物繊維強化製品におけるイノベーションを加速させています。
• 同社は過去数年間で約2億ドルのコストを削減しており、最近の構造改革施策により2027年度の開始時点で約2000万ドルの利益押し上げ効果を見込んでいます。
• 新規ビジネスの獲得は外食・業務用（Away-from-Home）およびブランド小売の両分野に広がっており、第3四半期から一部寄与し、第4四半期には獲得拡大が本格化する見通しです。
• 経営陣は、正式な包括的見直しが完了し、イノベーション、注力分野、店頭での実行力強化にわたる提言の実行を開始したと述べました。

主要財務・経営データ

事業および経営業績

家計への圧迫、消費者の嗜好の変化、激しい競合活動の継続により、包装フレッシュパンのカテゴリーは引き続き厳しい状況にあります。経営陣によると、プライベートブランドや低価格商品へシフトする消費者が一部見られるものの、同社の相対的な業績にはポートフォリオの不足がより大きな要因であると考えています。

同社は、ハーフサイズ食パン、サワードウ、タンパク質、食物繊維などの機能性商品分野での浸透不足を認識しています。これらの分野の新商品は、2026年度下半期から2027年春にかけて投入される予定です。

Nature’s Ownは決算発表の数ヶ月前にリニューアルされました。経営陣は、顧客やSNSでの評価は好調であるものの、キャンペーンの業績への影響を見極めるには時期尚早であるとしています。

Dave’s Killer Bread（DKB）について、経営陣は数量減少圧力の一因としてサワードウ市場の成長と一部の価格感受性を挙げています。現在、DKBのサワードウ商品は西海岸のみで展開されています。マーケティング支援については、以前展開したRock Your Resetキャンペーンや新学期向け販促活動の強化を経て、年内残り期間で正常化する見込みです。

フラワーズ・フーズは価格設定およびプロモーション戦略の再検討も継続しています。経営陣は、価格改定は生産性向上、価格・パッケージ体系の見直し、商品イノベーションと並ぶ施策の1つに過ぎないと強調しました。

経営見通し

経営陣は、第3四半期の全体売上高が前年同期比で減少すると予想しています。一方、新規ビジネス獲得の拡大、前年比較における価格弾力性の落ち着き、Nature’s Ownへのマーケティング投資の効果発現により、第4四半期には安定化がより進むと見込んでいます。

業績の改善は、外食・業務用とブランド小売の両分野でバランスよく進むと予想されています。一部の新規ビジネスは第3四半期から貢献を開始し、第4四半期にはさらなる効果をもたらす見込みです。

2026年度の残り期間における大半の原材料コストは完全にヘッジされています。残るリスク要因には、主に包装資材に影響を与える油脂、軽油、間接的な樹脂コストなどが含まれます。経営陣は、現在の見通しにはこれらの圧力がすでに織り込まれているとしています。

2027年度については、計画策定の段階が続いています。経営陣は、複数の原材料カテゴリーでインフレ指数が上昇していると説明し、単に値上げに頼るのではなく、生産性の向上、価格・パッケージ体系の見直し、イノベーションを通じてこの圧力に対応する方針を示しました。

リスクと注視事項

• 包装フレッシュパン需要の継続的な低迷と家計負担の増大。
• 激しい競争の継続、販促競争の激化、プライベートブランドや低価格商品へのシフト。
• サワードウ、ハーフサイズ食パン、機能性パンといった急成長分野におけるポートフォリオの浸透不足。
• 生産量の減少に伴う、パン製造ネットワーク全体の固定費吸収力の低下。
• 2027年度における原材料、燃料、樹脂、包装関連コストでのインフレ懸念。
• 新商品の投入、新規ビジネスの立ち上げ、Nature’s Ownのリニューアルに伴う実行リスク。

アナリストQ&Aの要点

アナリストらは、フラワーズ・フーズが下半期の見通しに組み込まれた前期比での業績改善を達成できるかに注目しました。経営陣は、主な原動力として新規ビジネスの獲得、追加のコスト削減、商品イノベーションの3点を挙げました。改善効果は第3四半期よりも第4四半期に偏る見込みです。

利益率について、CFOは、フレッシュパンの販売数量が9.5%減少したにもかかわらず売上総利益率が維持された主な理由は価格改定であると述べました。構造改革によるコスト削減や工場の生産性向上も寄与しましたが、経営陣は生産数量が減少する中でさらなる効率化の達成は難しくなると認めています。

今後のインフレに関する質問に対し、経営陣は2022年の商品サイクル時と比べて価格設定の柔軟性が低くなる可能性があると答えました。そのため、同社は生産性向上、ポートフォリオの見直し、価格・パッケージ体系の改定など、より広範な施策の組み合わせに依存する計画です。ネットワークの最適化については引き続き検討中ですが、より複雑で実行に時間がかかるとされています。

決算説明会トランスクリプト全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Flowers Foods Second Quarter 2026 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, J.T. Rieck, Executive Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

J. Rieck

Good morning. I hope everyone had the opportunity to review our earnings release, listen to our prepared remarks and view the slide presentation that were all posted earlier on our Investor Relations website. After today's Q&A session, we will also post an audio replay of this call. Please note that in this Q&A session, we may make forward-looking statements about the company's performance.

Although we believe these statements to be reasonable, they are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. In addition to what you hear in these remarks, important factors relating to Flowers Foods business are fully detailed in our SEC filings. We also provide non-GAAP financial measures for which disclosure and reconciliations are provided in the earnings release and at the end of the slide presentation on our website. Joining me today are Ryals McMullian, Chairman and CEO; and Anthony Scaglione, our CFO.

Ryals, I'll turn it over to you.

A. McMullian

Okay. Good morning, everybody. As noted in our prepared remarks, our second quarter results did not meet our expectations. The fresh packaged bread category remained challenging, reflecting pressure on household budgets, shifting consumer preferences and sustained competitive activity. Against this backdrop, we're accelerating initiatives to better align our resources and value proposition with where the market is heading.

This includes advancing innovation in smaller formats, sourdough and protein, improving our in-store execution, pursuing new business and continuing to invest behind our leading brands. As the Nature's Own relaunch, new business wins and innovation initiatives build momentum, we expect them to support greater stability and improved performance. We have work to do, but we remain confident in our strategy, our brands and the actions that we are taking.

Shannon, we can go ahead and open up for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Our first question comes from the line of Steve Powers with Deutsche Bank.

質疑応答

Stephen Robert Powers

Ryals, maybe we can pick up a bit where you left off in the intro. I mean if I think about the implied performance in your updated guidance for the back half, even at the low end, it seems to imply some acceleration and some improvement certainly versus the exit rate of consumption that we saw coming out of 2Q. So maybe a bit more detail on the building blocks that you see to create that sequential improvement because it doesn't sound like you're expecting the category to improve. It sounds like you're expecting your own standing versus the category to improve. So which of the initiatives are expected to be the most impactful? And I guess, a little bit of how quickly we should expect them to manifest over the remainder of the year?

A. McMullian

Okay. Thanks, Steve. A few things, and I'll let Anthony chime in here as well in terms of guidance. But I would call out 3 primary factors to address the question you asked. One is we do have some pretty significant new business wins that are coming on in the back half. In addition to that, we took additional cost savings measures that will benefit the back half. And that's in addition to the roughly $200 million we've taken out of the business over the last several years.

And I'd also call out innovation, which is a particularly important factor when you think about where the category is going, the speed of the shift in consumer preferences, frankly, got a little bit ahead of our innovation pipeline. But the good news is we have those things coming to fill those gaps in our offerings, whether you're thinking about protein, half loaves, sourdough, et cetera, all that's coming in the back half and then as we move into the spring of next year. Anthony, anything you want to add?

Diego Scaglione

No, I think you covered it. I would say, Steve, if you look at it for the back half, a little skewed. We expect some year-over-year declines in Q3, but then normalization for all the factors that Ryals mentioned related to the new business wins, reduced elasticities as we're lapping prior year pricing in Q4 and a bit of stabilization in Nature's Own from our marketing investments continue to take hold.

Stephen Robert Powers

Great. Maybe a little bit, if you could, a little bit more color. It sounds like you expect improvement both across the branded retail business and the other segment where I would expect those new business wins to exist. So maybe a little bit more color as to where you see -- which side of the business you see more improvement? And then, yes, I'd love a little bit more color on what you're seeing with the Nature's Own relaunch and kind of reasons for optimism with that.

Diego Scaglione

So Steve, I think from the way we're looking at it, it's really split between our Away-from-Home business as well as our retail branded business. So I would say we're seeing good opportunities and realization in both those areas, the timing of which some of it is going to come in Q3 and some of it will come in Q4. So it's balanced wins across the portfolio.

A. McMullian

And Steve, just to address your question on the Nature's Own relaunch. Recall, we just started this a couple of months ago. I would say it's going well. It's a little bit too early to see the actual results read through, but we're getting really good feedback from customers, social media, et cetera. So there's some early indicators that it will be a successful campaign. But I think we've got to give it -- as I said on the last call, we're going to have to give it a little bit more time for it to read through. That said, we do feel really good about the campaign and where we're headed with it.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Scott Marks with Jefferies.

Scott Marks

First thing I wanted to ask about, you noted in the prepared remarks, rising competition, rising promotional intensity. Obviously, you guys took some pricing earlier in the year with the expectation that you might see competitors follow, and it doesn't sound like that's happened quite yet. So just wondering if you can kind of give us an update on your thoughts around the pricing dynamics in the category and where you are? And any thoughts of changes to some of the actions you've taken to maintain maybe more competitiveness versus peers in traditional.

A. McMullian

Sure. I'll take a stab at that first. I think it's important to remember that the dynamics in the category are about a lot more than price. I think in certain segments of the portfolio that may be a factor. And as we noted in the prepared remarks, we're taking a pretty intensive review of our pricing and promotional strategy. However, it is more than just price. And I would point more to consumer preference shifts. Certainly, there has been some amount of trade down to private label and lower-priced items.

But I think the bigger factor, at least in our performance relative to the category has to do with those gaps in our portfolio, the underpenetration in half loaves, sourdough, protein fiber, some of these more functional attributes that consumers are looking for. And so that's where our primary focus is. That is not to say that we're ignoring the price equation. We are taking a hard look at that. And my initial thesis is there probably are some pockets of the portfolio where that's a factor, but I don't think it's the overall driving force of our performance.

Scott Marks

Appreciate the thoughts there. And then maybe there are some comments in the prepared remarks, I think, from Anthony about 2027 seeing some inflationary costs potentially ticking up, notably from commodity and fuel exposure. So just wondering if you can give us an update on where you're seeing inflation right now, how you're thinking about the exit rate in '26? And then maybe what you're assuming at this point for '27 as well as any other color you can share about '27 to help us frame your thinking.

Diego Scaglione

Sure. Sure, Scott. Let me take it in 2 parts. As we mentioned in Q1, most of our commodities for the balance of this year are fully hedged. We had some exposure, which I alluded to in oil and diesel and indirectly in resin, and that's primarily in our packaging area. So our current guide didn't change because we saw added pressure from a commodity perspective. We assume that pressure in Q1, and it hasn't really changed materially from where we were back in Q1. As I pivot to '27, we're still in the middle of our planning process for fiscal '27.

So I can't provide further color on that in isolation. To Ryals point, input costs are just one of many variables that we have to factor as it relates to price mix and the architecture and new innovation. So I can't look at it in isolation. That being said, overall inflation has gone up in many of our categories from a pricing index perspective is something that we need to definitely address as we look at '27 and the exit velocity, as you mentioned, coming out of '26. It's something we're working to address going forward. And as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, more to come. But at this point, that's all we could say as it relates to '27.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Jim Salera with Stephens.

James Salera

I wanted to follow up on your commentary to Steve and Scott's questions there. If I look back to 2022, that was, I think, the last time we had kind of a significant commodity cycle. And if my model serves me correct, net price/mix across the business was up kind of mid-teens in 2022, which was a big factor in helping to offset that. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it sounds like there's maybe not as much flexibility on a go-forward basis around pricing given some of the competitive dynamics. So could you just walk us through what other levers you might have in the business to help offset that commodity inflation that we're seeing and kind of anticipating to continue to roll through in 2027?

Diego Scaglione

Yes. Let me start on that, Jim. I would say, clearly, we have to look at productivity measures, which is part of our -- every annual process and throughout the year, we're looking at ways to be more efficient in the bakeries in the network, et cetera. We took action coming out of Q1 when we saw softness on the top line that will accrue from a tailwind perspective as we exit 2026 into 2027. And as we said on the prepared remarks, that's roughly around the $20 million tailwind we'll have going into 2027. The other area is going to be the price pack architecture.

As Ryals mentioned, coming together with new products around small loaves, bring to market innovation in sourdough, areas where the consumer has headed and where the consumer is, we're probably underpenetrated on a portfolio basis. We have great products coming to market in the near term, but we're probably underpenetrated today. So when we look at those factors gives us confidence that, yes, price probably is not going to be the only lever to overcome the inflation. And as I mentioned earlier, a lot more work to do around that as we continue the '27 planning process.

James Salera

My follow-up question is on DKB. In the prepared remarks, you guys touched on marketing pullback there. I would just love some more commentary around -- is that kind of a temporary reshift where maybe other brands need some more support? Are you guys reworking the marketing plan there? Did it shift kind of within the portfolio, maybe towards some of the innovation versus kind of the core fresh bread offering? Any thoughts there would be great.

A. McMullian

Yes, Jim, it's temporary. I mean it's the way we laid out the cadence of our marketing and promo spend this year. So we focused a lot at the beginning of the year with -- you may recall the Rock Your Reset campaign that we did with DKB. And then also, to your point, also a focus on back-to-school. And so we should see more normalized levels of promo and marketing spend with DKB for the balance of the year.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Our next question comes from the line of Mitchell Pinheiro with Sturdivant & Co.

Mitchell Pinheiro

I was looking at your fresh bread volume decline, which was 9.5%, and that's a big number. But I was surprised at how well the gross margin held up despite the unit volume decline in fresh bread. How can you -- how do you manage that?

Diego Scaglione

Mitch, this is Anthony. I mean, clearly, price had a big contributor in the price/mix. From a volume decline. So our pricing definitely was a positive contributor as it relates to overall. But as we look forward into the earlier comments, there's other variables that we are looking towards as we think about the balance of this year in '27 and price pack architecture, one that I mentioned earlier. But price was definitely the contributing factor to answer your question.

Mitchell Pinheiro

And so sort of negative fixed asset leverage, you've been able to manage that? Or how should we think about that?

Diego Scaglione

Yes. So from -- obviously, the restructuring had some cost out in COGS. We've had good productivity as it relates to the in bakery network. But clearly, that's our highest fixed cost. And while we're looking at network optimization, that is more complicated and takes much longer to execute. But we're clearly constantly looking at ways to be more efficient within the 4 walls of our bakery and our network, and that drove some benefit, but that becomes harder and harder with the volume declines. So as you can imagine, that's something that we're looking at and continue to look at as ways to optimize going forward.

Mitchell Pinheiro

Okay. And then as you look at the third quarter, do you expect volume declines to moderate?

Diego Scaglione

Yes, we don't break that out. As I mentioned, we expect Q3 year-on-year to be down from an overall sales perspective. So that's going to be price and volume based and then Q4 to have a little bit more stabilization as the new wins get more fully ramped. That's probably the most color I can give you in terms of the near term.

Mitchell Pinheiro

Okay. And then I guess 2 more questions. One with Dave's Killer Bread. You mentioned that consumer -- shifts in consumer preferences as a reason that helped pressure the unit volume decline. What are you referring to?

A. McMullian

Yes. Mitch, it's Ryals. Mostly, we think that it's the growth of sourdough. It's pretty remarkable actually. I mean that subsegment of the category has already grown to be a $1.3 billion subcategory. So it's been pretty tremendous growth. And in DKB, we only have sourdough on the West Coast currently. But as we mentioned earlier in the innovation pipeline, we have [indiscernible] for all that. I would say that is certainly one area and probably at least some amount of price sensitivity relative to Dave's. But I don't -- as I said earlier, I don't think it's all price. It's a combination of price for some consumers, but also offering and product attributes that are driving some of that decline.

Mitchell Pinheiro

Okay. And then just final question is just where do we stand with the comprehensive review? Where are we in that process? Are we close to the end? Is this a continuous improvement, comprehensive review? Can you shed a little light on that?

A. McMullian

Yes. Well, I think we're always in the mode of continuous improvement. But in terms of the formal initiative of the comprehensive review, yes, we're finished with that and beginning to execute on it. So a lot of the things we've talked about today, whether it's innovation or focus or better execution, all of those are folded in and are the result of that comprehensive review.

Operator

And I'm currently showing no further questions at this time. I'd now like to hand the call back over to Ryals McMullian for closing remarks.

A. McMullian

Okay. Great. Thank you, Shannon. I just want to thank everybody for taking time today and joining us for questions. We very much appreciate your interest and support of our company. And as always, we look forward to speaking with you again next quarter. Take care.

Operator

This concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.