セールスフォースが好決算で14％急伸、アンスロピックIPOはCRMを過去最高値へと押し上げるか？

取引終了後に発表された決算データによると、セールスフォースの売上高、1株当たり利益、業績見通し（ガイダンス）を含む主要指標は市場予想を大幅に上回り、市場のファンダメンタルズに対する強い安心感を提供しました。詳細は以下の通りです。

セールスフォースの業績が市場予想を大幅に上回った主な要因はアンソロピック（Anthropic）にあります。なかでも利益の急増は、アンソロピックへの早期投資に伴う巨額の含み益（未評価益）を計上したことが主因です。これに関してセールスフォースは、「人工知能（AI）スタートアップのアンソロピックへの投資から26億ドルの戦略的利益を得た」と説明しました。

さらに、セールスフォースとアンソロピックとの提携は、Agentforce、Data Cloud、ClaudeforceといったAIおよびデータ関連製品の事業化を推進しています。これには、ユーザー当たり平均売上高や総契約額の引き上げ、大口の長期契約を締結する企業顧客の意欲向上、年間経常収益（ARR）の40億ドル突破などが含まれます。

As shown above, Anthropic's impact on Salesforce mainly spans two aspects: 1. Financial aspect: It provides Salesforce's book equity investments with massive unrealized gains, directly boosting net asset value per share and net income, offering a solid asset cushion for the stock price; 2. Business aspect: It refutes the bearish thesis that SaaS will be replaced by AI, transforming AI into an actual driver of revenue growth.

However, relying solely on capital hype surrounding an IPO is insufficient to propel the stock to continuous new highs. Whether CRM can break above its record high still depends on the actual enterprise renewal rates of Agentforce and Claudeforce, as well as whether traditional SaaS subscription seats can maintain stable growth. Salesforce first invested $50 million in Anthropic during its Series C round in 2023 and subsequently participated in every follow-on funding round. The market expects it to hold a 1% stake, which, based on the Series H funding round, values its holding at roughly $5 billion—still relatively small for a company with a market cap in the hundreds of billions of dollars.

Salesforce's stock price currently trades around $230, leaving an upside gap of nearly 60% from its all-time high of $369. Relying on the valuation premium of a single investment cannot bridge such a large market cap gap, as the market will not assign a SaaS valuation multiple of 30x or higher to one-off investment gains. If its core business lacks growth, stock price momentum will rapidly fade once investment gains are realized.

From a technical analysis perspective, Salesforce's stock price faces a dual technical obstacle. The $230 level served as support during multiple pullbacks in 2025 and also represents the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement resistance level during the decline, where a large volume of trapped positions is concentrated. If it can stabilize above this key level, it is expected to rally further toward $260-$270.

Salesforce stock price chart, Source: TradingView

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