Analysis

TradingKey - Amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East, the US Dollar Index continues to strengthen, briefly challenging the 100 level. Meanwhile, gold—a traditional safe-haven asset—appears to have lost its safe-haven appeal. Since the U.S. strike on Iran on February 28, gold gapped higher but subsequently retreated, erasing all gains from the week preceding the conflict.

As the market focuses on when the yen can escape the quagmire of depreciation, a series of personnel reshuffles and policy maneuverings within the Japanese government and the central bank have once again taken center stage. With Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi officially nominating two "refla

TradingKey - The outlook for the British Pound in 2026 is undoubtedly one of the most significant focal points for investors in the FX market. Following a structural shift in 2025 characterized by a "low start and high finish," GBP/USD successfully broke out of its two-year trading range and stabilized near 1.35 at year-end, laying the foundation for its performance in 2026.

TradingKey - Entering early 2026, the attention of global investors is once again locked on the Japanese Yen (JPY). Despite the Bank of Japan (BoJ) gradually raising policy rates to a range of 0.5% - 0.75%, marking a definitive end to the era of negative interest rates, the yen continues to trend lower against the U.S. dollar.

TradingKey - After enduring three consecutive years of "high prices, high interest rates, high debt, and low growth," the Eurozone economy is finally demonstrating resilience through a moderate recovery. Currently, the European Central Bank (ECB) faces the ultimate test of maintaining the status quo versus implementing "preemptive rate cuts." Euro exchange rate volatility, inflation trends, and the economic outlook have become the primary focus for investors and financial enthusiasts when allocating overseas assets and capitalizing on currency opportunities.

TradingKey - In early February 2026, as the results of Japan's House of Representatives election were finalized, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), under the leadership of Sanae Takaichi, not only maintained its ruling status but also set a record by securing a two-thirds supermajority independently for the first time since the party’s founding. This result not only represents the pinnacle of Takaichi’s political career but also marks Japan’s official entry into the "Takaichi Era."

TradingKey - While major global economies were still mired in a "rate-cutting race," the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) dropped a bombshell in February 2026 by raising interest rates by 25 basis points. This counter-trend move completely disrupted market rhythm. The Australian Dollar (AUD) has rall

TradingKey - The opening act of 2026 has arrived with more intensity than Wall Street anticipated. With only a few days remaining until the Japanese House of Representatives election on February 8, incumbent Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is making the biggest gamble of her political career.

TradingKey - In January 2026, the US Dollar Index continued its downward trend from 2025, officially breaking below the key 97.0 level and reaching a low of 95.5, marking a nearly four-year low since February 2022.

TradingKey - The U.S. dollar is facing its most intense wave of selling in nearly four years, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falling to its lowest level since March 2022 on Tuesday. Despite this, U.S. President Donald Trump appeared exceptionally optimistic during an event in Iowa. When asked

TradingKey - Another bombshell has hit the Japanese financial market as abnormal volatility in the Japanese bond market begins to spill over into the foreign exchange market. Following a 260-pip slump last Friday, USD/JPY fell another 160 pips on Monday, hitting its lowest level since mid-November last year. A "rate check" conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on the USD/JPY exchange rate acted as the catalyst for this sharp volatility in the yen.

TradingKey - Our view is as follows: in the short-to-medium term, factors related to de-dollarization will indeed exert periodic constraints on the U.S. dollar exchange rate; however, from a long-term perspective, there remains considerable uncertainty regarding their actual impact on the trend of t

TradingKey - Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi issued a warning on Monday regarding recent intense market volatility, stating that speculative movements will be monitored and action will be taken if necessary. This news boosted the yen. In early Monday Asian trading, the yen extended its larges

TradingKey — The highly volatile Japanese yen has once again taken center stage in the FX market. On July 23, USD/JPY experienced a "rollercoaster" session, plunging nearly 200 pips from a high of 159.22 to 157.33 before rapidly rebounding 80 pips to 158.50. Speculation regarding potential intervention by Japanese authorities immediately dominated trading circles. While the Bank of Japan held interest rates steady that morning, Governor Kazuo Ueda subsequently issued hawkish hints. With Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields recently surging to a 27-year high, how should the outlook for the yen be interpreted?

TradingKey - Conflicts between Europe and the U.S. may continue to intensify, potentially placing further downward pressure on the Euro's exchange rate. In the short term, geopolitical risks are likely to continue weighing on the Euro’s performance. Furthermore, given the lackluster economic growth outlook in the Eurozone, monetary policy is expected to continue shifting toward easing, which remains unfavorable for the EUR/USD pair.

TradingKey - Since January 2026, global investors have once again turned their focus to the yen. The yen's exchange rate weakened further this week, falling below 159.0 against the US dollar. It has now depreciated for five consecutive months, hitting its lowest level since July 2024.

TradingKey - The US dollar in 2025 is undergoing a fundamental logical shift. The "triple trump cards" that once supported the dollar's strength—high interest rate differentials, leading absolute returns, and the preference of global safe-haven capital—are simultaneously weakening.

TradingKey - The Federal Reserve has initiated an interest rate cut cycle, implementing its third consecutive rate cut since September this year, while the European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained a wait-and-see approach, keeping interest rates unchanged at 2.15% since July this year. In 2026, the

TradingKey - GBP/USD has shown strong performance over the past month, rising from around 1.30 to 1.34, and has not declined despite expectations of a central bank rate cut. Looking ahead to 2026, GBP/USD may experience volatile pullbacks, testing support levels around 1.25.

TradingKey - UK Economy Shows Persistent Weakness as Construction Slump Deepens.The UK economy remains under pressure, with S&P Global’s latest purchasing managers’ index (PMI) released on the 6th showing that construction activity contracted for a ninth consecutive month in September.