Chevron Stock Forecast: CVX Hits a Record Before Q3 as Investors Wait for Bigger Buybacks

Analysts expect adjusted EPS of about $4.87 on revenue of about $61.8 billion, according to MarketBeat, up from $1.85 and $48.2 billion a year earlier. Chevron has beaten EPS estimates in seven of its last eight quarters.

Even with oil high, the consensus sits about 20% below Q2's adjusted EPS of $6.06. In August, Chevron guided to 150,000 to 200,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day of upstream turnarounds and downtime, meaning planned maintenance that cuts output, plus a $175 million to $225 million hit to downstream earnings. Timing effects, accounting swings tied to derivatives and inventory, lifted Q2 earnings by $1.4 billion compared with a year earlier, and they can move either way.

In Q2, Chevron earned $6.06 a share on an adjusted basis, beating the $5.55 estimate, as revenue jumped 51% to $67.2 billion. Production rose 20% to 4.07 million barrels of oil equivalent a day, helped by the former Hess assets, and Chevron cut debt by a record $8.4 billion. It also reached $1.5 billion of annual Hess synergies, 50% above its first target, and hit its $3 billion cost-savings goal six months early.

Chevron guided Q3 buybacks to $2.5 billion to $3.0 billion, near the low end of its $10 billion to $20 billion annual range. In September, CFO Eimear Bonner said extra cash will go back to shareholders and that it is "not a matter of if, it's a matter of when," but added that Chevron generally does not "like to move the buyback rate during times of volatility."

Analysts expect $42.9 billion of free cash flow, the cash left after capital spending, this year, and Chevron produced $16.6 billion in the first half, according to Yahoo Finance. That implies about $13 billion a quarter in the second half, far more than the current buyback pace. In my view, a higher buyback is the clearest way for Chevron to justify a price above its average target.

BofA raised its target to $252 from $227 with a Buy rating, while Morgan Stanley lifted its target to $226 from $218. The stock trades at about 12 times forward earnings. The main risk is that oil falls back as quickly as it rose. Analysts see EPS dropping from about $17 this year to about $14 in 2027, according to TIKR, so 2026 may prove to be a peak year.

Ahead of the report, the daily chart shows a steady uptrend. CVX has climbed inside a rising channel, two parallel lines that contain a trend, since July, and earlier this month it broke above the $217.94 resistance zone. It trades well above the 50-day and 100-day EMAs, moving averages that give more weight to recent prices, which keeps buyers in control.

RSI, a momentum gauge that runs from 0 to 100, is near 69, just below 70, the usual overbought line. The MACD, a trend-following momentum indicator, is still positive but flattening, so a short pause is possible after the report.

CVX Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

If the premarket gain holds, a daily close above $233.65 would open the way for $240.83, then $248.21. On the downside, $217.94 is key support now that it has flipped from resistance, and a close below it would put the $212.95 50-day EMA in play.

I'm bullish while CVX holds above $217.94, with targets at $240.83 and $248.21.

Key Levels

• Last close: $231.46, up 0.99% on October 29 (premarket: $235.67)
• Support: $217.94, $212.95, $203.36
• Resistance: $233.65, $240.83, $248.21
• RSI: 69.29, just below the 70 overbought line
• Bullish trigger: Daily close above $233.65
• Bearish trigger: Daily close below $217.94

When does Chevron report Q3 2026 earnings?

Chevron reports third-quarter results before the US open on Friday, October 30, 2026, with the call at 11 a.m. ET. Analysts expect adjusted EPS of about $4.87 on revenue of about $61.8 billion.

What is the Chevron stock forecast before earnings?

The bias is bullish above $217.94 on the daily chart. A daily close above $233.65 targets $240.83 and $248.21, while a close below $217.94 opens $212.95.

Chevron is producing far more cash than it returns, and the stock already trades at its average target. The level that matters is $233.65. I expect a daily close above it only if Chevron signals bigger buybacks, while a drop below $217.94 would end the uptrend that started in July.