SpaceX Q2 2026: Revenue Up 92%, AI Cloud Deals Hit $14.1B, Cursor for $60B — Stock Consolidates Near $115

Quarterly results for SpaceX were very strong by any means of measurement. Revenues of $7.814 billion were significantly better than the consensus forecast and represented a 92% increase from the $4.071 billion reported in the previous year. Adjusted EBITDA of $3.54 billion represented a 191% increase and the Rule of 40 EBITDA Margin was 45%. The operating loss was reported to be $143 million (an improvement from the loss of $970 million in the previous year) and the net loss was reported to be $541 million (an improvement from the loss of $1.008 billion in the previous year). Based on the cash basis of accounting, the company reported an adjusted free cash flow of $1.22 billion, representing a very strong 63% margin on revenues.

All three segments provided a positive contribution to overall growth. Starlink (Connectivity) sales reached $4.291 billion, up 66% year on year. Operating income of $1.656 billion makes Starlink the only profitable segment. Starlink netted 1.7 million new subscribers over the quarter, making a total of 12 million, with an average revenue per user of $66/month. The AI segment, with revenue of $2.561 billion, gained 247% year on year but had a greater operating loss of $1.257 billion. For the Space segment, revenue reached $962 million with a 29% increase year on year, but an operating loss of $542 million due to Starship development. Each segment shows positive growth, but at a different pace and with different levels of profitability.

What makes the quarter credible is not just the growth. The Backlog. The company finished the quarter with $47.5 billion total backlog and closed $14.1 billion during the quarter in new cloud services agreements. That means, as of writing, SpaceX would have almost 3 years of work as is with $47.5 billion backlog. Furthermore, these cloud services agreements provide a new revenue stream since customers are buying the compute capacity from SpaceX's growing AI Infrastructure. That means these agreements are providing recurring, high-margin services unlike SpaceX's launch services. 

Management mentioned that the current pipeline is multiple times the backlog which means these cloud services agreements will be almost endless. SpaceX also landed $6 billion of multi-year contracts for U.S. Government work on StarShield, SpaceX's Government secure satellite network.

SpaceX made headlines when, one day following the firm's successful IPO, the company revealed a $60 billion all-stock deal to acquire Cursor, the AI coding start-up founded by MIT Alumni, that had recently gone viral. The deal is expected to close in 2026. The acquisition announcement was buoyed by an incredible spike in Cursor's annual revenues for 2023, having gone from $2 billion in February to $3 billion in April, just prior to the announcement.

SpaceX believes that competitors will want in-house AI and coding capabilities and will not rely on OpenAI or Anthropic for such services. The Cursor team and tools will help complement the AI layer of the SpaceX infrastructure and the Colossus supercomputer and Grok models.

Critically, SpaceX subsidized an all-stock purchase, indicating the extremely high valuation the market is placing on the company. At approximate share prices, a $60 billion valuation amounts to 3.4% dilution for SpaceX shareholders, which indicates an extraordinarily high market valuation for the individual business units of SpaceX.

Between August 4 and August 6, the stock surged 30% after SpaceX delivered a beat-and-raise earnings report, the first strong quarterly report after the IPO, which included new revenue stream opportunities from signing AI cloud contracts, an order backlog for contracts, and the Cursor acquisition, which showed management’s belief in AI and their commitment to growing the business. The surge was partially a short squeeze, as the stock was on a post IPO decline after it fell from $226 to below $135 and many bet the stock would continue to drop.

Since the surge, the stock has consolidated around $115, retracing most of the gain. This is normal. More importantly, the lockup termination was on August 6. Approximately 911.5 million shares (~20% of the previously restricted holdings, worth nearly $100 billion) were free to trade. The supply shock that the market expected occurred, but the stock increased 6% during the day on a large volume, which indicated strong demand for the stock, contrary to the belief of the short sellers.

The primary concern for investors is model capital intensity. In Q3, SpaceX incurred $18.4 billion in capex, about $15.83B of which was spent on SpaceX AI infrastructure. This is a notable expense, even for a company with $100 billion in cash after its IPO. SpaceX is expanding Colossus II, its supercomputer center, as part of its new $14.1B cloud computing contracts. Colossus II will be profitable, but the AI segment is still an operational loss of $1.257B against a $2.561B AI segment revenue. The contracts will make the segment profitable, but the timeline, and how profitable, is anyone's guess.

SpaceX Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

For reference, a company with SpaceX's capex and $1.22B in free cash flow needs to increase revenue, or reduce capital expenditures, to shore up the cash burn. SpaceX's cash cushion buys them time, but Wall St. wants to know how many years you can lose $15B+ quarterly on AI infrastructure for expected value.

Key Levels (Technical Setup for Saturday)

• Resistance: $117.42 (50 EMA), $126.17, $134.38
• Support: $105.75, $98.39, $91.30
• 52-week range: 104.83–225.64
• Current price: $115 (consolidating)
• Lockup schedule: First tranche (20%) unlocked Aug 6, further releases staggered through Dec 8, 2026

On August 4, SpaceX stock surged 30% following a solid revenue report, improving EBITDA, and a positive forecast aided by contracting AI cloud services and strong customer backlog (i.e., no shortage of new clients). Stock price consolidated at $115, which is a common response for sudden price spikes. A sure sign of the demand, a 6% increase on August 6 occurred following a stock lockup.

At this price, the stock may or may not be a buy, depending on the AI Opportunity Cost for Infrastructure and the potential loss for your diversified interests. The backlog and contracts provide positive evidence the business model will work. At $15B quarterly net burn from capex, and a 21x forward price/sales, the price reflects the required execution of all the parts of the business, including Starlink, monetization of the AI cloud, development of Starship, and integration of Cursor. The price reflects the risk and the required execution of all the parts of the business. The price and the risk are related. The valuation is the price; the risk is execution.

SpaceX reported a strong quarter with impressive growth numbers, a huge AI backlog, and an interesting gamble with the Cursor acquisition. They showed strong fundamentals with the 30% rally and consolidation around $115 is typical with the supply story being more favorable than anticipated with the lock-up absorption. For Saturday, the question is not how good was the quarter, the question is if the capex model is sustainable. 

If SpaceX is able to increase the profitability in the AI segment and leave the level of investment the same or increase it, then the backlog will bring normed revenue and the valuation will fit. If that level of capex is reached with little to no increase in revenue, the story will change. A more positive outlook will be if price breaks back up and over $117.42 (50 EMA). Below, support levels are $105.75 and $98.39.