The Week Ahead: US July Non-Farm Payrolls in Focus; PLTR, SanDisk, AMD, and SpaceX Earnings Ahead

US July Nonfarm Payrolls Report Approaches; Fed Rate Hike Expectations Face Repricing

On Friday (August 7), the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the July nonfarm payrolls report, which includes key indicators such as nonfarm payroll employment, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings.

The market currently expects US nonfarm payrolls to increase by approximately 91,000 in July, with the unemployment rate likely rising from 4.2% to 4.3%. In comparison, US nonfarm payrolls increased by only 57,000 in June, indicating that job growth has slowed significantly.

Investors will focus on whether the slowing employment represents a mild cooling or an early signal of a significant economic growth deceleration. If job growth and wage growth both beat expectations, it could strengthen the case for the Fed to continue raising interest rates; Treasury yields, the US dollar, and financial stocks could find support, while high-valuation tech stocks and gold could face pressure.

Conversely, if nonfarm payrolls are significantly lower than expected and the unemployment rate rises more than market forecasts, investors may scale back their bets on Fed rate hikes, though recession fears could also limit the upside for US equities. Therefore, next week's market reaction will depend not only on whether the data is strong, but also on whether investors are more concerned about inflation or economic growth.

Concentrated Release of US ISM Indices; Economic Growth and Price Pressures Face Test

On Monday (August 3), the US will release the July ISM Manufacturing Index; on Wednesday (August 5), the US will also release the July ISM Services Index. According to the ISM release schedule, the manufacturing report is typically published on the first business day of each month, while the services report is published on the third business day.

For manufacturing data, the market will focus on the new orders, employment, and production sub-indices to judge whether corporate investment and goods demand can maintain expansion. The Prices Paid Index is also worth watching; amid rising international oil prices and transportation costs, this indicator could affect the market's assessment of whether goods inflation is heating up again.

The services sector accounts for a larger share of US economic activity, meaning the services employment and prices sub-indices could have a greater impact on Fed policy expectations. If both manufacturing and services indices continue to expand concurrently while price pressures keep rising, the market may further raise its expectations for rate hikes this year.

AI Earnings Face Key Test as Palantir, AMD, and SanDisk Prepare to Report

After the market close on Monday (August 3), Palantir will release its second-quarter earnings.

The market will focus on US commercial revenue, government business growth, new orders driven by its AI platform (AIP), and whether management will raise full-year guidance. Palantir remains one of the highly valued companies in the US AI software sector; therefore, even if revenue and profits continue to grow, whether order volume, remaining performance obligations (RPO), and future growth rates can justify its current valuation will still determine the post-earnings stock direction. Palantir has confirmed it will report its results after the US market close on August 3.

After the market close on Tuesday (August 4), AMD will release its second-quarter earnings report.

Investors will focus on data center revenue, AI accelerator shipments, server processor demand, and changes in gross margin. As tech companies continue to increase investment in AI infrastructure, the market hopes to see AMD win more orders in the AI chip market and gradually narrow the gap with the industry leader.

If AI chip revenue and second-half guidance beat market expectations, AMD's earnings could boost the entire semiconductor sector; if order growth, product deliveries, or gross margin performance fall short of expectations, it could exacerbate investor concerns over the return on investment for AI capital expenditures.

After the market close on Wednesday (August 5), SanDisk will release its fourth-quarter and full-year fiscal 2026 earnings.

The market will focus on SanDisk's fourth-quarter revenue, adjusted earnings per share, and gross margin performance, as well as management's latest guidance on NAND flash prices, market supply and demand, and product shipments for the new fiscal year. As demand for high-capacity storage from AI servers and data centers continues to grow, revenue changes in enterprise solid-state drives (SSDs), data center products, and high-end NAND products will serve as important indicators for assessing the quality of SanDisk's growth.

SpaceX Set for First Post-IPO Earnings; Starlink and Cash Flow in the Spotlight

SpaceX will also release its first quarterly earnings report since going public after the market close on Tuesday, making it one of the most highly anticipated corporate events next week.

The market will focus on Starlink user numbers, satellite internet revenue, rocket launch frequency, government contracts, and Starship project spending. Given the significant volatility in SpaceX's stock price post-IPO, this inaugural earnings report will help investors assess whether the company's business model, profitability, and cash flow can support its high valuation.

Beyond revenue and profit, management's commentary on Starlink's growth, Starship's testing schedule, space data centers, and AI-related businesses could also sway market sentiment. If the company can demonstrate stable cash flow and a clear path to commercialization, the stock price may find support; however, if capital expenditures and R&D expenses continue to grow rapidly, the market may focus more on financing needs and potential share supply pressure.

Consumer, Healthcare, and Industrial Leaders Set to Report Earnings

On Tuesday, Caterpillar will release its second-quarter earnings. The market will observe changes in global infrastructure construction, mining investment, and industrial demand through its construction industries, resource industries, and energy & transportation segments.

Investors will also monitor the impact of raw materials, tariffs, and transportation costs on margins. If orders, dealer inventories, and full-year guidance remain stable, it may alleviate market concerns over a global manufacturing slowdown.

On Wednesday, Disney, Uber, and Eli Lilly will report earnings.

The main highlights of Disney's earnings will include the profitability of its streaming business, theme park attendance and consumer spending, sports media performance, and changes in traditional television revenue. The market will judge whether improvements in the streaming business can offset the pressure from the decline in traditional TV.

For Uber, investors will focus on mobility bookings, delivery growth, margins, and free cash flow, while also watching whether autonomous driving partnerships will impact the future cost structure and competitive landscape.

The focus for Eli Lilly remains on the demand for weight-loss and diabetes drugs. The market will focus on sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound, capacity expansion, supply status, and full-year guidance. As competition in the weight-loss drug market intensifies, Eli Lilly's production capacity and drug pipeline will directly affect investors' assessment of its long-term growth prospects.

On Thursday, Datadog and Lyft will release their quarterly earnings.

Datadog's report will reflect enterprise cloud spending, AI workload growth, and customer cost optimization trends. For Lyft, the market will focus on active riders, gross bookings, insurance costs, and margins, and compare its performance with Uber's.

Monday (August 3)

Keywords: China Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing Index, US Construction Spending, Palantir Earnings

China will release its July RatingDog Manufacturing PMI. Following the official manufacturing index's return to contractionary territory, the market will look to private surveys for further insight into new orders, export demand, and the operating conditions of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).

The US will release its July ISM Manufacturing Index and June construction spending data. The employment and prices paid sub-indices in the ISM report could influence market expectations for non-farm payrolls and inflation.

On the corporate front, Palantir will release its second-quarter earnings after the US market close, with AI software demand, government contracts, and full-year revenue guidance taking center stage.

Tuesday (August 4)

Keywords: US Trade Balance, Factory Orders, AMD Earnings, SpaceX Earnings, Caterpillar Earnings

The US will release its June trade balance and factory orders data. Investors will focus on changes in imports, exports, and corporate equipment orders to assess the impact of trade policy and corporate capital expenditure on the US economy.

On the corporate front, Caterpillar will release its financial results, providing the latest clues on global industrial, mining, and infrastructure demand. After the US market close, AMD and SpaceX will post their earnings, with AI chips, Starlink, rocket launches, and capital expenditure being the key focus areas for the market.

Wednesday (August 5)

Keywords: US ADP Employment, ISM Services Index, SanDisk Earnings, Disney Earnings, Uber Earnings, Eli Lilly Earnings

The US will release July ADP private sector employment data and the ISM Services Index. The ADP data will provide a preview for Friday's non-farm payrolls, while services employment and price indicators could affect market outlooks on Federal Reserve policy.

On the corporate front, SanDisk, Disney, Uber, and Eli Lilly will release their quarterly financial results.

Thursday (August 6)

Keywords: US Initial Jobless Claims, Wholesale Inventories, Datadog Earnings, Lyft Earnings

The US will release its weekly initial jobless claims. In the previous week ended July 25, initial jobless claims rose only slightly to 197,000, indicating that the labor market has not shown significant signs of deterioration.

The US will also release wholesale inventories and wholesale sales data, which are used to observe corporate inventory cycles and changes in commodity demand.

On the corporate front, Datadog and Lyft will release their second-quarter financial results. The market will focus on enterprise cloud software spending, AI application demand, ride-hailing orders, and profitability.

Friday (August 7)

Keywords: US Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings

The US will release its July non-farm payrolls report, the most important macroeconomic data next week. Investors will focus on job growth, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings to gauge whether the labor market continues to cool moderately.

If job growth and wage growth are higher than expected, the probability of the Fed continuing to raise interest rates this year could rise. If the data is significantly weak, US Treasury yields and the US dollar may fall, though economic growth concerns could weigh on cyclical sectors in the US stock market.

This content was translated using AI and reviewed for clarity. It is for informational purposes only.