ASML (ASML) Q2 2026 Earnings Preview: $7.94 EPS Expected, 8% Options Swing; Triangle at $1,800

ASML reported first-quarter 2026 results on April 15 that included revenues of €8.76 billion ($10 billion), which was a 13% year-over-year increase, and net income of €2.84 billion, with a gross margin of 53%, which was within the top of guidance. Following these results, the company increased full-year 2026 revenue guidance to €36 billion to €40 billion from a previous range of €34 billion to €39 billion. CEO Christophe Fouquet noted at the time chip demand exceeded supply, and customers were fast tracking capacity expansion plans. The Q2 guidance ASML gave was €8.4 billion to €9.0 billion, with a gross margin of 51% to 52%. Zacks' consensus for Q2's revenue is $10.28 billion, and its EPS is $7.98. However, it doesn't matter if the results surpass these figures. Analysts have been made clear that the real catalyst to today is the outlook for Q3 and if ASML increases full-year guidance for yet another time.

In BofA analyst Didier Scemama raised his price target to $2,345 ahead of the earnings release and he expects ASML's 2027 order book to be sold out by the time of the results. Should the orderbook be disclosed on the call, then the stock's focus would shift from the 2026 earnings results to its 2028 opportunity, which is a much larger figure than 2026. JPMorgan, which has an Overweight rating on the stock with a $2,200 price target, has said ASML needs to provide signals of capacity expansion and strong demand for 2027 and beyond for its stock to make new highs. Wells Fargo increased its target price to $2,200, from its $1,750 prior target, and believes semiconductor equipment names overall will deliver another strong quarter.

The mean target of the eight analysts who rate ASML as a Buy is $2,119.67 which would give ASML 17% upside from current levels of $1,808. ASML is currently in the middle of its $12 billion share repurchase program for the 2025 to 2028 period, and the company increased its dividend 17% earlier this year as well, both of which are signals of management's confidence in the company's ability to generate substantial cash flow in the future.

The 11% pullback in ASML stock from its July peak would contradict the stock's surface narrative which was a record results quarter. That decline was consistent with the pullback in the broader Philadelphia Semiconductor Index which, after rising over 10% in the last month, fell as much as 16% from its record in June 22 only to eventually stabilize and close higher on that day.

The underlying reason for the declines has been the concern that the artificial intelligence capital expenditure cycle that drove AI hyperscaler commitment on 2026 spending levels between $125 billion and $200 billion for Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon have pulled too much forward and left an air-pocket of slow orders in 2027 or 2028 for the semiconductor equipment makers.

ASML has been specifically impacted by two other issues that have added to its risk profile. First, is the exposure to China, which has historically been a large source of revenue for the company, but is now under the spotlight from the rapidly changing Chinese export policy environment that can severely curtail the DUV equipment sales. Second, is the slow ramp up of its High-NA EUV tool sales to volume manufacturing, which is another source of growth for ASML, although not significant until the first tools were delivered in 2025.

ASML's answer to both of the aforementioned issues will likely be in today's Q2 revenue guidance and the outlook for Q3. If management raises its full-year guidance again for 2026, and the Q3 result exceeds the $10.34 billion consensus, then the concerns related to a peak-out period loses its footing for now. If ASML maintains its existing guidance and the Q3 result misses the consensus of $10.34 billion, then we could see ASML stock fall another 11% from $1,808 to the key support triangle near $1,707. The fact that options traders have priced in an 8.36% move either direction from the current stock price means they have a clear 50/50 chance of which scenario plays out.

On the 2H timeframe, the $1,808 price level in ASML has bounced off the lower trendline of a triangle pattern to reclaim the 50EMA ($1,785) and 200EMA ($1,783). RSI sits at 60, building momentum, but not yet overbought. Immediate horizontal resistance is at $1,813 (the triangle trendline).

A breakout with daily close above $1,813 sets up targets for $1,860, $1,903, and then $1,942. An inability to break above $1,813 in the face of a very strong Q2 report would be a technical negative warning. A close back below the 50EMA support level at $1,785 exposes $1,760 and the 50-day trendline at $1,707.

ASM Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

1. Breakout setup: $1,813, the triangle trendline. Targeting $1,860, $1,903
2. Failure scenario: Close below $1,785, target for $1,760 and trendline for $1,707
3. Q2 Consensus: EPS $7.94 to $7.98 (+75% y/y), Revenue $10.27 billion to $10.28 billion (+17.8% y/y)
4. The big question today: Does management raise guidance a third time?
5. Options Implied Move: 8.36% move either direction (4% is the historical average)
6. Analyst Price Targets: Mean $2,119.67, BofA $2,345, Wells Fargo $2,200, JPM $2,200

ASML is reporting Q2 2026 earnings at the bell today. Street consensus expects EPS of $7.94 (+75% y/y) and Revenue of $10.27 billion (+17.8%). The stock has pulled back 11% in July despite setting up for a record revenue quarter because the real question in the market is: has the AI chip capex cycle peaked or is it accelerating?

A 3rd raise in guidance and a Q3 of $10.34 billion+ would be a positive surprise. ASML is at $1,808 and forming a symmetrical triangle. Break above the $1,813 level targets $1,860, $1,903. Failure below the $1,785 level exposes $1,760 and the trendline for $1,707. Implied options move is 8.36%.